Tag: SP+ rankings

Where LSU stands in the SP+ rankings following the regular season

The Tigers remain in the analytics system’s top 15.

LSU ended a good season on a low note, losing to Texas A&M on the road in rivalry week to finish at 9-3 in coach Brian Kelly’s debut campaign.

The Tigers were in the top five before the loss, but analytics systems had consistently been a bit lower on them than the polls showed. LSU ranks 12th in ESPN’s Football Power Index this week, but now, we’re going to take a look at a different metric from ESPN: SP+.

For the uninitiated, SP+ proprietor Bill Connelly describes it as a “tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that is intended to be predictive and not a “resume ranking.”

Here’s how things stand in the SP+ following the final week of the regular season.

Florida cracks top 35 in ESPN’s regular season-ending SP+ rankings

The Gators finished in the top 35 in the final SP+ rankings of the season, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. They lost to FSU in their season finale.

After their 45-38 defeat to Florida State, the Florida Gators sit at No. 34 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 15th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 39.6. Defensively, Florida is the 78th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 29.5. Not so nice.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains the Orange and Blue’s regular season. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag] and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by [autotag]O’Cyrus Torrence[/autotag], a potential first-round draft pick in next year’s draft.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all twelve games this season

Now that the regular season is over, the Gators will wait to find out who they will play in their bowl game. On Sunday, the College Football Playoffs selection show will announce the four teams that will participate in the playoff. Then, they will announce the pairings for the New Year’s Six bowl games. The individual bowl teams will then announce their matchups throughout the evening.

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Florida appears here in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after Week 10

The Gators slightly improved in post-Week 10 SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, with their remaining schedule trending them up.

After the Gators’ 41-24 road win over Texas A&M, the Florida Gators sit at No. 37 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 21st-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.0. Defensively, Florida is the 74th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 28.3.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains the Orange and Blue’s season thus far. There are moments when the Florida offense clicks. Saturday’s victory was the third consecutive game where the offense was effective throughout most of the contest, lending to the belief that offensive consistency has arrived in the Billy Napier era.

Florida’s defense, however, is dealing with significant issues in personnel. Those issues were worsened by last week’s dismissal of [autotag]Brenton Cox Jr[/autotag]. from the team. There are positive signs of life, however. The defense has made effective changes in the second half of the last two games. Unfortunately, the sluggish starts have had an effect on Florida’s defensive SP+ metrics.

Of the Gators’ remaining three games, only Florida State (No. 27) is ranked higher in SP+. Both South Carolina (No. 39) and Vanderbilt (No. 93) are ranked below them.

Florida’s next game will be Saturday when they end the home portion of their schedule against South Carolina. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. EST and the game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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ESPN’s SP+ rankings has Florida here after Week 9

Following Florida’s 42-20 loss to Georgia on Saturday, the Gators land in the Top 40 in the post-Week 9 SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Following the Gators’ 42-20 defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, the Florida Gators sit at No. 38 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

The SP+ ranking system was developed by Connelly in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 20th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 36.3. Defensively, Florida is the 70th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 28.2.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains the Orange and Blue’s season thus far. There are moments when the Florida offense clicks. Most recently, the third quarter stretch in last week’s Georgia game where the Gators scored 17 unanswered points against a Georgia defense that SP+ ranks as second-best in the country.

Florida’s defense, however, is dealing with significant issues in personnel. Those issues were worsened by the recent dismissal of [autotag]Brenton Cox Jr[/autotag]. from the team. Expect the Gators’ defensive numbers to stay the same, or worsen, as the season enters its final stretch of games.

Of the Gators’ remaining four games, two teams are ranked above them in SP+, Texas A&M (No. 25), and Florida State (No. 33). South Carolina (No. 39) and Vanderbilt (No. 94) are ranked below them.

Florida’s next game will be Saturday when they travel to College Station to take on the Aggies. Kickoff is scheduled for noon EDT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

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Florida drop slightly in ESPN’s post-Week 7 SP+ rankings

Following Florida’s 45-35 loss to LSU on Saturday, the Gators drop slightly in the post-Week 7 SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Following the Gators’ 45-35 defeat to the LSU Tigers, the Florida Gators drop one spot to No. 36 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

The SP+ ranking system was developed by Connelly in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 23rd-best team in SP+. Last week, they were the 28th-best team offensively.

Defensively, Florida comes in at No. 62, a significant drop from last week when they were ranked at No. 49. Paired with the eye test, this makes sense. The Gators’ defensive performance against LSU was not good. They looked out-matched, about-schemed, and were flat out out-played by the Tigers’ offense.

Florida has two teams on its remaining schedule ranked above them. Georgia (No. 2), Texas A&M (No. 23). Florida State came in at No. 37, one spot behind the Orange and Blue. With the Gators on a bye this week, their next matchup will come on Oct. 29 against Georgia. The annual neutral-site matchup will be played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CBS Sports.

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Florida’s position in ESPN’s post-Week 6 SP+ rankings revealed

Following Florida’s win over Missouri on Saturday, the Gators come in as a top 35 team in the SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

On the heels of a close 24-17 victory over the Missouri Tigers, the Florida Gators come in at No. 35 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

The SP+ ranking system was developed by Connelly in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 28th-best team in SP+. Defensively, Florida comes in at No. 49. Paired with the eye test, this makes sense. Without [autotag]Ventrell Miller[/autotag], the Gators’ defense looks lost on the field. Miller’s impact is clear on plays when he is not involved. Florida’s lack of depth, something head coach [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] continues to emphasize, allows teams to exploit the Gators’ defense later on in games.

Florida has four teams on its remaining schedule ranked above them. Georgia (No. 3), LSU (No. 25), Texas A&M (No. 26) and Florida State (No. 33). The first of those four opponents comes this Saturday when the Gators host LSU in a primetime matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. EDT and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

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Where LSU ranks in FPI and SP+ following the win at Auburn

Here’s where LSU stacks up in the advanced metrics after Week 5.

LSU is now 4-1 on the year following the comeback win at Auburn.

It was the Tigers’ fourth consecutive win and good enough to earn the 25th spot in the AP Poll. Where do the computers slate Brian Kelly’s group?

ESPN’s FPI ranks LSU eighth, down one spot from last week. FPI ranks LSU 27th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. In Bill Connelly’s SP+, LSU ranks 19th, down seven spots from last week.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 30th, while the defense sits at 13th.

The top-10 Tennessee Volunteers come to town next week in what will be a matchup between ranked opponents. The Vols are expected to open as a slight favorite, but these ratings suggest that the Tigers are well-equipped to match up against them.

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Where Florida stands in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after Week 4

Florida’s defensive SP+ ranking plummeted following another ugly outing in Week 4, which caused the team to drop over 10 spots overall.

A 2-2 start to the season has Florida down to No. 44 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, according to the latest update from Bill Connelly.

The Gators have been on a downward trend recently, falling from No. 31 after a Week 2 loss to Kentucky to its current position. Connelly says that “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” rather than a resume ranking that rewards teams for upset wins or fluke losses. In his words, “if you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall — if you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

The problem is that Florida’s numbers haven’t really followed that pattern. The Gators were both lucky and unimpressive in the win over USF, but they only fell two spots following that loss. Florida’s offense was the strongest it’s been in weeks against Tennessee, but the Gators still fell eight spots after taking the loss.

However, No. 44 feels very appropriate for this Gators team right now, and the defensive unit’s struggles seem to outweigh the gains made on offense. At least, that’s what SP+ is saying. After an ugly performance on Saturday, the Gators’ defensive rankings fell 3.1 points and from No. 53 in the country to No. 76. [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag]’s 515 total yards only bumped the offensive ranking up 0.2 points, but that’s good enough for 22nd-best in the NCAA.

If Florida’s going to improve in these rankings before year’s end, some serious and tangible improvement on defense is needed.

Three of Florida’s future opponents are ranked higher than it. Georgia is No. 3 on the list, LSU is No. 11 and Texas A&M is No. 22. That may seem like three guaranteed losses to many, but Florida has already beaten Utah, which sits at No. 9 currently.

Things don’t look great for the Orange and Blue right now, but these growing pains are expected after a coaching change.

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LSU falls outside the top 25 in final preseason SP+ projections

Will the Tigers outperform these projections?

For the first time since 2000, the Tigers enter the season sitting outside of both the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. It’s clear the human minds are not high on LSU, and it seems that the analytics agree.

In the final preseason projections from ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system, the Tigers are lower than they would like. However, they are just three spots outside of the top 25 at No. 28. SP+ likes LSU’s defense (No. 22) more than its offense (No. 34), though both rank squarely in the top quartile of the FBS, which would be a welcome change from the last two seasons.

However, when it comes to wins and losses, the numbers aren’t as friendly. SP+ project just 6.5 overall wins (3.1 in conference play) during coach Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. While a seven-win season is possible with the gauntlet of an SEC West schedule, a one-game improvement from last season’s 6-7 finish could result in a short honeymoon period for Kelly.

There’s a decent chance LSU’s resume is being weighed down by returning production, which is one of SP+’s primary considerations for preseason projections. The Tigers rank 70th in the FBS in returning production, bringing back 65% of its defensive production and just 61% of its offensive production.

But in fairness, a lot of that production is being replaced with a handful of talented transfers, all of whom bring experience to the table. You would think that a six-win team losing 10 players to the draft and a number more to the transfer portal would be in dire straits, but the Tigers actually have a fairly veteran roster, all things considered.

It’s clear that both the polls and the computers are hedging LSU this fall, and considering it’s Year 1 for an SEC West team with an uncertain quarterback situation, that’s understandable. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers aren’t able to outperform these projections in Kelly’s first campaign.

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Here’s where LSU stands in the preseason SP+ projections

The Tigers are a notable outlier in the initial SP+ rankings.

We’re still quite a way off from the beginning of the 2022 season, but with ESPN’s Bill Connelly releasing the preseason projections for his propriety SP+ analytics system, we have some new data about this year’s LSU team to sink our teeth into.

Connelly’s SP+ system takes three main factors into account: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. SP+ does not take wins and losses into account and is not a resume ranking but rather a predictive measure of efficiency. As a result, these rankings can often vary quite a bit from, say, the AP Top 25.

In the preseason projections for 2022, LSU has quite a bit of ground to make up. It ranks 36th nationally with the No. 47 offense and No. 27 defense. That sandwiches the Tigers right between Purdue and Fresno State, which may come as a bit of a surprise for a team with a lot of potential.

Connelly offered a specific explainer on why LSU (as well as USC, who ranks No. 53) fell so low in the projection, and it largely has to do with roster turnover. The 2021 production from players added in the transfer portal conflicts with these two teams’ recent history rankings.

New LSU head coach Brian Kelly has made similar changes, bringing in Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels, at least one transfer for every unit on the field and completely transforming the Tigers’ secondary, losing five of last year’s top six but bringing in five transfers. LSU will almost certainly be ranked relatively high in the AP poll this year as well, but after ranking 45th and 65th over the past two seasons, the Tigers get only so much benefit of the doubt from SP+.

Once we have dealt with a couple of years of evidence in how teams loading up on transfers change their ratings from year to year, I will get a pretty good idea of how to account for this in the projections. This is a very new phenomenon, however, and I don’t want to overreact in how I account for this, so for now we’re just going to have a couple of weird outliers.

It sounds like Connelly expects the Tigers to rise in the rankings once the actual games start being played, but they remain an outlier for now. It goes to show how much uncertainty surrounds this year’s team, but the potential for a surprising year in Baton Rouge remains.

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