sleeper running backs – Syndication Server

25 sleeper prospects to target in fantasy football

These 25 players are being undervalued in fantasy football this summer.

The 2024 NFL season begins tonight, as does the fantasy football season. For anyone with last-minute drafts, we’ve put together a list of 25 sleeper prospects to target this season.

Note that by “sleeper,” we mean a player we expect to outperform their average draft position in 2024. They’re not necessarily “unknown” players, but undervalued players going into the season.

Let’s get to it.

1. QB Jayden Daniels (ADP 102): Daniels (QB12) is not being drafted as a starter in 10-QB leagues, yet it’s extremely easy to imagine a top-10 (or better) finish for the rookie this season. After rushing for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in two years at LSU, Daniels should continue making plays with his legs in the NFL.

2. QB Justin Herbert (ADP 123): Herbert’s stock tanked this summer following a foot injury, but he’s been practicing since mid-August. Herbert averaged 18.5 points per game last season, which ranked 11th among QBs. Yet he’s being drafted as QB17 this summer. Herbert’s injury might cause a slow early start, but getting him as QB17 should be a good value.

3. QB Kirk Cousins (ADP 135): Yes, he’s coming off an Achilles injury, but Cousins has never been much of a threat to run and he was cleared to play again in July. Cousins will be surrounded by talent in Atlanta and he should easily top his QB19 ADP. With a small sample size of eight games, Cousins ranked seventh among QBs with 19.3 PPG last fall. Before that, he ranked 13th in 2022 (18 PPG) and 12th in 2021 (19.2 PPG). Cousins seems unlikely to drop from QB13 to QB19 this season, but that’s where fantasy managers are drafting him.

4. QB Bo Nix (APD 186): Nix is a late-round flyer to serve as a QB2 in re-draft leagues and an intriguing dynasty option. Nix was tailor-made for Sean Payton’s offense and he rushed for 20 TDs in two seasons at Oregon. Denver ran read-option plays with Nix in preseason and while Payton obviously won’t want to run Nix into the ground, the QB’s speed will be utilized in 2024. He might not finish in the top 12 as a rookie, but it’s easy to imagine Nix finishing much higher than his QB23 ADP thanks to his rushing ability.

5. QB Justin Fields (ADP 194): Fields is an extremely deep sleeper because he won’t begin the year as Pittsburgh’s starter. Fields could get special packages early in the season near the goal line and if Russell Wilson struggles, it’s easy to imagine Fields eventually taking over as QB1. Fields is being drafted as QB27 so you obviously shouldn’t reach for him, but he could offer great value later in the year.

6. TE Dalton Schultz (ADP 125): Schultz finished as TE11 last season so his being drafted as TE13 isn’t a huge discrepancy, but he should prove to be a good value pick for fantasy managers who opt to wait to draft a TE.

7. TE T.J. Hockenson (ADP 126): Please understand that this is not a recommendation to overdraft Hockenson, who will miss at least the first four games of the season. Hockenson will eventually return from an ACL injury, though, and when he does, he could rank among the top fantasy TEs to close out the season. Drafting Hockenson late and stashing him on IR could pay dividends later in the year.

8. TE Pat Freiermuth (ADP 129): Freiermuth still hasn’t returned to the seven-touchdown production of his rookie season, and a five-game injury hurt his 2023 campaign. Now healthy again, he’ll look to outperform his TE15 ADP in 2024.

9. TE Taysom Hill (APD 151): Hill is a feast-or-famine fantasy prospect because a three-touchdown game could be followed up by a 12-yard game. Despite his up-and-down nature, Hill averaged 9.1 points per game last fall, which ranked ninth among TEs. He’s being drafted as TE21.

10. TE Greg Dulcich (ADP 239): It’s now or never for Denver’s former third-round pick. He missed seven games due to injuries as a rookie in 2022 and was unavailable for 15 games last fall. Now finally healthy, Dulcich will look to utilize his speed to make plays in Sean Payton’s offense that has been friendly to TEs in the past. Dulcich is being drafted as TE29 (undrafted in most leagues), so there’s no need to reach for him, but he could be an early-season waiver-wire target.

11. WR Cooper Kupp (ADP 34): It feels insane to list Kupp among “sleepers,” but he’s being drafted much later than his ceiling due to last season’s injuries. If he stays healthy — even with Puka Nacua added to the mix — Kupp should finish much higher than his WR17 ADP this season.

12. WR Malik Nabers (ADP 45): Marvin Harrison Jr.’s hype is through the roof, understandably so. But MHJR is being drafted as WR9 while Nabers is going off the board as WR24. MHJR should obviously be ranked higher than Nabers, but the sixth overall pick is also headed for a big year.

13. WR Rashee Rice (ADP 65): Eventually, Rice could face discipline from the NFL, but he’s set to play in the season opener and he’s a top receiver in KC’s high-flying offense. Landing him as WR30 could be a steal.

14. WR Xavier Worthy (ADP 82): Two Chiefs receivers make the list as Patrick Mahomes looks to have a bounce-back season. Worthy isn’t “the next Tyreek Hill,” but his speed could make him a great value as WR37 this fall.

15. Ladd McConkey (ADP 97): The Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, and Quentin Johnston has struggled to make an impact. That could leave McConkey as a PPR gem playing in the slot. He’s going off the board as WR42.

16. RB Alvin Kamara (ADP 46): He’s not the fantasy monster he once was, but Kamara could prove to be a big steal at RB17 after finishing as RB3 in PPR points per game (17.9) last year.

17. RB Javonte Williams (ADP 77): Getting a clear-cut starter at RB27 is a steal. Williams lost 11 pounds this offseason and coach Sean Payton has said he looks like “a completely different player.” Now another year removed from his 2022 knee injury, Williams is healthy and the clear RB1 in Denver.

18. RB Jonathon Brooks (APD 93): Understand that Brooks will miss at least the first four games of the season on the PUP list as he continues to recover from his ACL injury. He might not pay dividends until the second half of the season, but he would be the perfect use of an IR spot early in the season. Brooks is being drafted as RB34.

19. RB Jerome Ford (ADP 105): He will start at least the first four games of the season while Nick Chubb is on the PUP list. Chubb is recovering from a serious knee injury, but he’s being drafted as RB30 while Ford is going off the board as RB35. That should be flipped. Ford averaged 12.4 PPG last season, a serviceable number for RB3/flex, and depending on your roster, perhaps even an RB2. Getting him at RB35 should be a good value.

20. RB Chase Brown (ADP 104): Following the Joe Mixon departure, Brown might be the next man up in Cincinnati’s backfield. Zack Moss hurts his value, but a potential starter being drafted as RB37 is an intriguing option.

21. RB Trey Benson (ADP 113): If James Conner is ever sidelined, Benson will be the next man up. Conner has never played a full 16- or 17-game season and Arizona just used a third-round pick on Benson. He’s being drafted as RB39.

22. RB Blake Corum (ADP 111): Corum is arguably the most important sleeper and handcuff running back in fantasy football this year. He should have standalone value in L.A.’s offense and if Kyren Williams misses time like he did in each of his first two seasons, Corum’s stock will skyrocket. He’s currently being drafted as RB40.

23. RB J.K. Dobbins (ADP 120): Dobbins will likely be the lead running back for the Chargers this fall and if he stays healthy, Dobbins should easily finish higher than his RB41 ADP.

24. RB Tyler Allgeier (ADP 141): Similar to Corum, Allgeier already has standalone value, and if anything happens to Bijan Robinson, Allgeier’s stock will skyrocket. He’s a value at RB48 even as a rotational option.

25. RB Jaylen Wright (ADP 139): He’s currently behind De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert on the depth chart, but Wright’s speed should lead to him getting opportunities sooner than later. And once again, if there are injuries ahead of him, Wright’s stock will increase. He’s a flyer at RB48 with big upside.

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Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs

2022 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Running Back
1	IND	Jonathan Taylor	Was No. 1 last year, has better schedule this year. Same system designed around him.
2	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	When he plays, he consistently a top fantasy play. When he plays, he’s a dual-threat and a monster weekly starter. When he plays… When he plays… feel lucky?
3	TEN	Derrick Henry	King Henry was mortal last year. After two seasons of historic usage, the foot gave out last October. He’s back and they’ll be significantly lightening his load to keep him fresh… who am I kidding? The only question on most plays is which side of the line he’ll be crashing through.
4	LAC	Austin Ekeler	He will miss one or two games. But he’ll always challenge for most receptions by a RB. Draft Spiller and sleep better.
5	PIT	Najee Harris	381 touches as a rookie. New QB(s), same mediocre O-line and worse schedule but hey, may end up with another 381 touches.
6	MIN	Dalvin Cook	Great when healthy but always misses three or four games. New offense intends to throw more, run less. Still a safe pick but likely to take a small step back from previous seasons.
7	DET	D’Andre Swift	Productive when he isn’t missing three or four games per year. Great O-line and great schedule points at a career-high year if he stays on the field.
8	CIN	Joe Mixon	Blew up as the No. 4 RB last year. Dangerous passing offense means Mixon gets less focus. Rock-solid Top-10 with upside.
9	CLE	Nick Chubb	This is about where he ends up every year. Top rusher but only around one reception per game.
10	GB	Aaron Jones	Loss of Davante Adams may mean Jones could top his career-high 52 catches of last year, but GB has a terrible rushing schedule and AJ Dillon gets more involved. This is a little high, but his risk is balanced with minor upside as a receiver.
11	NO	Alvin Kamara	This is a steal if his legal situation gets pushed out to 2023 and he plays all 17 games. He’s always a lock for Top-10 and offense remains the same from last year.
12	DEN	Javonte Williams	No.17 as a rookie last year, gets a better QB in Russell Wilson. He’d be a Top-10 lock if Melvin Gordon did not re-sign. One of the most talented young backs.
13	NYG	Saquon Barkley	Third time a charm or that dog just won’t hunt anymore? This assumes that he’ll be back to form but miss a few games. Bad O-line a little better but schedule is even worse.
14	TB	Leonard Fournette	Oddity is that Fournette alternates great seasons with down years. Signed a big contract and is reliable for the Bucs, but 2021 was No. 6, 2020 was No. 34, 2019 was No. 7, 2018 was No. 38. Needs to break that trend.
15	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Down 2021 with a torn PCL but still his fifth-straight Top-10 season. Some believe Tony Pollard is better, but not the DAL coaching staff. O-line still an advantage and this assumes he has the worst year of his career. Because of voidable contract years, this is actually a contract season for him so plenty to play for in 2022.
16	CHI	David Montgomery	Great 2020 was sandwiched by two years around No. 20. New offense hints more use of Khalil Herbert, so Montgomery remains solid but less upside and runs behind arguably the worst O-line in the NFL.
17	ARI	James Conner	First year in ARI was best of his career. He was No. 5 last year, so this seems a hard drop after scoring 18 TDs in 2021. Will get banged up for a game or two, but this is a great value pick for a guy that faced the No. 32 rushing schedule strength and upgrades to only average.
18	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	Blew an ACL a year ago and missed last season. Was No. 28 as a rookie and still plays in a committee backfield. Better schedule this year but O-line a little worse. Plus BAL told Lamar Jackson he can run wild again.
19	WAS	Antonio Gibson	Has never been worse than No. 14 in his two seasons and WAS has a nice upgrade in running strength of schedule. But Commanders leaning to more of a committee this year with a healthy J.D. McKissic and short-yardage rookie Brian Robinson. This is a safe spot. Maybe less upside now.
20	LAR	Cam Akers	Finished rookie season on a high note, but then tore Achilles. Somehow returned for playoffs but looked bad. More risk here than this spot should have. HC Sean McVay even referred to Darrell Henderson as big factor in the backfield. Also drops from No. 3 down to No. 24 rushing strength of schedule.
21	SF	Elijah Mitchell	Everything they expected – from Trey Sermon. Mitchell was one of the best surprises of 2021. Was wildly productive with five 100-yard rushing games. Also missed six games and suffered five injuries (shoulder, rib, finger, concussion, knee) all in one year. Just very risky on an offense that changes the backfield constantly. Raheem Mostert was a similar star in 2019.
22	LVR	Josh Jacobs	Always Top-20 and was No. 8 in 2020. But all new coaches bring in an RBBC history and drafted Zamir White to help. Kenyan Drake returns from an ankle injury and worse yet, Raiders fall from No. 20 to No. 32 rushing schedule.
23	JAC	Travis Etienne	Love that upside. Etienne was lost for 2021 with a Lis Franc injury but in his own words, he picked a good year to take off. The 1.25 pick of 2021 is healthy and wowing in camp. Dual Threat. Has about as much upside as any other RB. Let him shine in a preseason game and this shoots much higher.
24	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	No arguing that the Chiefs first-round pick of 2019 was a disappointment. And this rank is about where he landed as a rookie. He’s suffered ankle, hip, MCL and shoulder injuries over just two years. But he’s slated to do more as a receiver with Tyreek Hill gone. There is still upside here, but one more year of injury and under-performance will be too much. Worth a shot at this spot.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back
25	NE	Damien Harris	This seems like a steal since he scored 15 TDs last year, but OC Josh McDaniels is gone and Rhamondre Stevenson keeps getting hyped. Harris a solid pick but lacks upside.
26	GB	A.J. Dillon	Dillon was the No. 22 RB last year but that was filling in for Aaron Jones twice while going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. This year it falls to No. 25. Not a bad pick, just a bit high.
27	NYJ	Breece Hall	Everyone loves the first RB drafted. The rookie Hall lands on one of least productive offenses of 2021 but the NYJ schedule and O-line are much improved from last year. Prototypical workhorse back that can catch the ball. Plenty of upside if passing game also improves.
28	PHI	Miles Sanders	Sanders has declined in each season and missed four games in each of the last two years. Dogged with knee, hamstring, ankle and hand injuries. Philly wants to pass more with A.J. Brown on the team and it looks more like an RBBC involving Kenneth Gainwell as well.
29	SEA	Rashaad Penny	He was so great in four games at the end of 2021 – versus the worst four defenses. Otherwise, his entire career has been the occasional rushing attempt between injuries. Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker as the second RB this year, so even they don’t think Penny’s late-season burst was a new normal.
30	CLE	Kareem Hunt	He gets banged up, but his moderate fantasy value skyrockets if Nick Chubb gets hurt.
31	DAL	Tony Pollard	Nice spot and productive when given the chance and holds at least this much value even with Ezekiel Elliott healthy. Expectation is that he sees more receptions since DAL receivers are banged up to start the year and Amari Cooper is gone.
32	BUF	Devin Singletary	Improved all three years and turned it up nicely to finish 2021. BUF is a pass-first offense and they added Isaiah Spiller to their mostly committee approach, but powerful offense, good O-line and the No. 1 rushing schedule strength should see Singletary challenge for RB2 fantasy status.
33	JAC	James Robinson	Tore his Achilles at the end of last season but may be ready to play early in the season, if not Week 1. But scary injury to return from and Travis Etienne will drain much work. He needs to prove health in training camp or a very risky pick.
34	MIA	Chase Edmonds	Okay, so he didn’t take over in Arizona and while he is listed as No. 1 in Miami, he probably won’t be more than a piece of a committee. As a late RB3 you could do worse. Marginal upside but should offer roughly this level.
35	DEN	Melvin Gordon	New coaches in Denver may not reprise the same committee backfield as last year. Then again, HC Nathaniel Hackett imports the GB scheme that used Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Should be a safe pick for a back that historically has always been Top-20.
36	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	The second RB drafted in 2021 is a 4.38/40 speedster out of Michigan State that ran for 1,636 yards and 19 TDs last year. The only one above him on the depth chart is the always-injured Rashaad Penny. Yeah. Love this pick and willing to wait a few weeks for big things to happen.
36	ATL	Cordarrelle Patterson	Patterson made the shockingly effective switch to RB last year but then sputtered by the end of the season. He’s 31 years old and probably even less likely to handle more than 150 carries. Worth it as an RB4 to see if he starts adding tons of catches again as he did early in 2021.
37	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	Saw much more use after Week 10 last year and even logged two 100-yard rushing efforts. Expectations are that he will see even more action and is slated to start catching more passes. The NE backfield has long been a source of frustration and dashed hopes, but Stevenson as an RB4 is just too good to pass up. Just his pace last year would have been around No. 24 had he played in all games.
38	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Back up for Dalvin Cook. Three years and never better than this ranking.
39	NYJ	Michael Carter	Jets drafted Breece Hall and now Carter is just the No. 2 for the Jets – when has that ever paid off? Good handcuff for the Hall owner but likely not enough production to merit a fantasy start unless Hall was out.
40	BUF	James Cook	Bills drafted Cook as the third RB taken this year with the plan to make him into a pass-catching back to complement Devin Singletary as the main rusher. Anyone catching passes in the Bills’ offense needs to be owned. Reasonable handcuff for the Singletary owner but should carry stand-alone fantasy value.
41	KC	Ronald Jones II	The info on Jones is conflicting. He’s said to be challenging Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a starter, and also speculated to not make the 53-man cut. Doesn’t help that KC has given first-team reps to undrafted Isaiah Pacheco who will also play special teams unlike Jones. As an RB4, he carries some upside and if he flops, it won’t kill you.
42	LAR	Darrell Henderson	HC Sean McVay referred to his backfield as being both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Not Akers and his backup. The Rams like to pass anyway and Henderson has been around the No. 30 back for the last two years. No game changer, but worth owning.
43	IND	Nyheim Hines	Was deemphasized last year but ranked No. 17 in 2020 when he caught 63 passes and scored seven TDs. HC Frank Reich said he wants the 2020 version of Hines back this year and that makes this a steal.
44	WAS	J.D. McKissic	Like Nyheim Hines, McKissic is not going to save your fantasy team but should see a return to an every-week value play in PPR leagues. He caught 80 passes in 2020 but missed six games last year. Nice value.
45	MIA	Raheem Mostert	In a best-ball league as a final pick maybe. But chances that Mostert is going to offer reliable fantasy points is too hard to buy into.
46	HOU	Dameon Pierce	Fourth-round pick could challenge Marlon Mack as the top back but a committee is expected, the rushing schedule is No. 30 and the O-line remains one of the worst. Upside here around the start of RB5, but not a lot.
47	HOU	Marlon Mack	Starting RB in Houston but virtually no upside and more likely to fall from this level.
48	SEA	Chris Carson	Retired. Will wash out of ADP.
49	NO	Mark Ingram	No. 2 in NO should be gold if Alvin Kamara is suspended, but that is no longer a lock (at least for this year) and Ingram is 32 years old and a nonfactor since 2019.
50	LAC	Isaiah Spiller	Great handcuff for the Austin Ekeler owner but hard to reach since he tends to be taken before the Ekeler owner can get there. Solid RB5 that could be huge if Ekeler missed much time.
51	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	Even with Christian McCaffrey flaming out last year, Hubbard only No. 36. Just a handcuff with marginal value even if McCaffrey misses time.
52	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	Good-sized back (5-11, 220) could beat Damien Williams out to be the No. 2 in Atlanta, and Cordarrelle Patterson faded last year. Bad schedule and bad O-line is a major challenge, but Allgeier could end up as the No. 1 RB in Atlanta this year.
53	DET	Jamaal Williams	D’Andre Swift tends to miss several games per year and Williams ranked No. 43 last season. DET has a great O-line and schedule, so Williams has minor value regardless and becomes a starting consideration when Swift gets hurt.
54	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	Ended as the No. 40 RB as a rookie last year and led the Eagles backfield since Miles Sanders was injured. Has minor stand-alone value and upside in this improving offense.
55	TB	Rachaad White	A popular sleeper-type this summer, White takes over for Ronald Jones as the No. 2 back in TB. Worth owning in that productive offense but likely needs Leonard Fournette to be injured to offer any reliable fantasy starts.
56	ARI	Darrel Williams	Comes over from the Chiefs where he was the No. 21 back last year. Replaces Chase Edmonds as the No. 2 back in Arizona who was No. 33 in 2021. Should offer much more value than this spot and Conner usually misses a couple of games.
57	MIA	Sony Michel	Certainly Michel has value after a surprising year with the Rams, but the Miami backfield is a mess that’s hard to buy into.
58	BAL	Gus Edwards	Torn ACL last September and Ravens O-line not as good. Staying away from players returning from blown knees and playing in a committee backfield.
59	SF	Tyrion Davis-Price	Why not? SF has a tendency to make stars out of surprising players. Elijah Mitchell was the newest star last year, before that, Jeff Wilson, before that, Raheem Mostert, before that, Matt Breida… Davis-Price was the fifth RB drafted this year, so he’s not just a bottom of the roster filler.
60	NYG	Matt Breida	Handcuff for Saquon Barkley. No real value to anyone else and even if Barkley crashes yet again, Giants have a bad schedule, bad O-line and are installing a new offense.

Best of the rest

Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – Firmly No. 3 behind Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, the ex-Alabama bruiser could see short-yardage work and steps in if either starter is injured.

Hassan Haskins (TEN) – The Titans offense is meant to run and Derrick Henry proved he was not immortal last year with the foot injury. Haskins already impressed in camp and will be a hot commodity if Henry misses any time.

Khalil Herbert (CHI) – New offense in Chicago changes backfield roles and Herbert looks likely to receive more work. A needed handcuff for the David Montgomery owner, but may have stand-alone fantasy value anyway.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs

2021 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

A sleeper running back is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Running Back
1	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	Last year burned many fantasy owners, but his injuries were ankle and thigh, nothing like a torn ACL. When he did play, he was yet again very productive.
2	MIN	Dalvin Cook	Cook always misses two games or so, but dominates when he plays. Grab Alexander Mattison for the two games and enjoy massive fantasy points in all the rest.
3	TEN	Derrick Henry	He was unstoppable last season. Cannot fault the pick but he’s also coming off a monstrous 832 touches over the last two years. That’s the sort of volume ended Terrell Davis’ career. He’s bound to be mortal eventually. Probably. Maybe.
4	NO	Alvin Kamara	Brees is gone but he was diminished the last two years anyway. For the last four seasons, Kamara was Top-4 in all but one when he was injured in 2019. He catches at least 80 passes per year, regardless of quarterback, and a banged up Michael Thomas only means even more dump off passes.
5	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Elliott is usually a Top-5 back and even without Dak Prescott, being hurt himself, and losing most of his O-line, he still ended up as No. 9 last season. The gang is all back.
6	CLE	Nick Chubb	Chubb may be the best pure runner in the NFL and he works behind the No. 1 offensive line. Only his lack of receptions holds him down this far.
7	NYG	Saquon Barkley	There are plenty of other backs in the draft. The first round is not where you should be saying “maybe this will turn out okay.” Until more clarity on his health happens – and it almost certainly will not prior to most drafts – then the risk makes Barkley a scary prospect. He never falls far enough to compensate for his risk.
8	IND	Jonathan Taylor	The rookie blew up for 1,468 total yards and 12 touchdowns to be the No. 6 fantasy back last year. The Wentz situation makes it a little less clear, but Taylor runs behind the No. 2 offensive line and Marlon Mack still is no threat.
9	LAC	Austin Ekeler	Four years into his career, Ekeler was better than No. 25 only once. The offense that fed him 92 catches in 2019 is long gone. He’s never ran more than 132 times in a season and stayed healthy for just the one Cinderella 2019 blip.
10	GB	Aaron Jones	This is a good spot for Jones. The return of Aaron Rodgers and great O-line are major positives. The biggest concern is Jones staying healthy and going from the No. 2 rushing schedule strength to the No. 31. Wouldn’t take him any higher.
11	PIT	Najee Harris	There’s plenty to be wary about with a rookie running back on a team with a terrible O-line and a fading quarterback. But Harris was the first back drafted in April and the only rookie stepping into a heavy workload. He was dynamic at Bama with 1,891 total yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior. Expectations are naturally very high.
12	WAS	Antonio Gibson	The hybrid-player with only 77 touches in two years at Memphis broke all conventions when he ended as the No. 13 fantasy back last year. He’s drawing even better reviews from camp this year. Maybe a head-scratcher, but one that scores a lot of fantasy points.
13	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	The Chiefs’ rusher is rising in the rankings for good reason. He missed three games, had no real preseason, and his O-line blew up in 2020. He’s worth a mulligan in the most explosive offense in the NFL.
14	CIN	Joe Mixon	Missing 10 games with a foot injury last year soured him to many, but the Bengals O-line is improved, the rushing schedule is much better, Giovani Bernard left, and the coaches intend to make Mixon into a workhorse. Worth the risk here.
15	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	Dobbins proved a force with 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, and he’s rock solid here. But he doesn’t catch much and the Ravens are committed to their committee.
16	CHI	David Montgomery	Shocking as it seems, Montgomery was the No. 4 fantasy back last year when Tarik Cohen was hurt and HC Matt Nagy had no other inferior back to steal the carries. The Bears have the No. 2 rushing schedule paired with the same bad O-line. He’s worth higher than this and Cohen is slow to return from a torn ACL.
17	SEA	Chris Carson	Carson has been a Top-20 fantasy back in each of the last three years. The schedule is a little better and Rashaad Penny spent the last three years as an injury waiting to happen. Always solid, never spectacular.
18	DET	D’Andre Swift	Here’s another rookie that struggled in the COVID-19-impacted season. Swift gets new coaches that want to turn him into a Alvin Kamara-like player. The O-line is better than most and so far it appears the Lions’ offense is mostly up to Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Jared Goff was given some sketchy wideouts, so Swift can be a valuable outlet.
19	PHI	Miles Sanders	While Sanders has the talent to produce far better than this, he is also on a team that is committed to a rotation even with new coaches. A rushing quarterback only serves to further diminish what the backfield can do.
20	LV	Josh Jacobs	This is a level equal to Jacobs’ rookie year. He was No. 8 in 2020 but the addition of Kenyan Drake scares away fantasy team owners. That’s probably overrated. This is should be the worst that he’ll do.
21	MIA	Myles Gaskin	The Dolphins did nothing in the draft for the backfield and only picked up free agent Malcolm Brown. Gaskin doesn’t have the pedigree or resume to earn him a starting job. But he has the one thing that trumps all else. He gets the opportunity. And he catches the ball well with 41 catches in 2020. Plus the Fins have the No. 3 rushing schedule. Maybe he disappears in 2022, but he’s poised for a decent year in 2021.
22	ATL	Mike Davis	Another back that had far fewer touches during his first five years on three teams. But one season in Carolina when Christian McCaffrey was hurt and he converted that into a surprising starting gig for the Falcons. It’s a new offense under HC Arthur Smith but Davis caught 59 passes for the Panthers last year and ran 165 times. The Falcons did not bring in anyone else to challenge him.
23	CLE	Kareem Hunt	This may end up as a steal. The Browns intend to run their offense through Nick Chubb and Hunt with the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL. This is the worst he’ll do. With Chubb banged up last year, Hunt finished as the No. 10 fantasy back.
24	JAX	James Robinson	Robinson was a huge surprise when he replaced Leonard Fournette. This season, there is a whole new offense, a new rookie quarterback, a below-average O-line and they added Travis Etienne in the first round. They say the rookie becomes the third-down back, but Etienne twice ran for 1,600 yards at Clemson. Good rushing schedule, though. Just feels risky like Etienne may increase his role while Robinson declines later in the season when you really need him.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back
25	LAR	Darrell Henderson	The loss of Cam Akers devastated this backfield that had already parted with Malcolm Brown. Henderson rises to RB1 by default and the former third-rounder of 2019 turned in several nice games last year. But he’s had injury issues including a high-ankle sprain in 2020. The Rams will use a committee approach, so Henderson is not the new Akers. But he should, for now, be the primary back.
26	JAX	Travis Etienne	Jags do not need Etienne to step into a full-time running back role with James Robinson there, but the new coaching staff grabbed Etienne with a first-round pick. So far, the plan is for Etienne to be a third-down back which alone could justify this draft spot. But he’s too talented to not, at least eventually, become a primary back. Could start slower, though.
27	SF	Raheem Mostert	2019 was his magical year and even then only as the No. 25 fantasy back. His other five years never played more than 9 games or ranked better than 47. No thanks.
28	ARI	Chase Edmonds	Risk is here with never more than 850 total yards in a season, but Kenyan Drake is gone and Edmonds stepped up last year as the No. 2 back with 53 receptions. The addition of James Conner could end up as a true two-back system, but ARI has a better O-line, easier schedule and a more mature offense.
29	DEN	Javonte Williams	Williams has climbed draft boards all summer long. Melvin Gordon is still there and maybe the No. 1 back at least to start. But he’s in his final contract year and the Broncos moved up to grab the NCU star that has all the physical attributes and skill set to become an elite NFL back. Denver owns the No. 1 rushing schedule strength so there may be enough for both backs to matter.
30	NE	Damien Harris	Maybe third time is the charm? Two lost seasons for the ex-Alabama rusher but he gained 5.0 YPC on his 137 runs last year including three 100-yard games. Pats backfield has been a mess for a decade, but Harris remains at the top until he is injured yet again. If Mac Jones starts, the offense becomes more traditional and the RB1 will likely account for more.
31	DEN	Melvin Gordon	Gordon was Top-12 every year he did not hold out. But he never stays healthy, only once ever broke 1,000 rush yards in six years and relied mostly on short-yardage touchdowns. Final year of contract and almost certainly gone in 2022. Expectations are that Javonte Williams becomes the primary back sooner than later, so Gordon’s fantasy value is likely to decline as the season progresses.
32	NYJ	Michael Carter	He’s smaller at only 5-8 and 190 pounds, but the Jets added him to a backfield that appears to be devoid of talent. Offense promises to be better under OC Mike LaFleur and Carter should be the lead back here. None of current Jets’ rushers gained more than 254 yards last year. Very low bar to start and Carter adds receiving
33	SF	Trey Sermon	Another rookie that rises in drafts each week. Bottom line – Sermon is likely the best inside rusher on the team but the offense always splits up carries. Has the most upside of any 49ers back. But no runner totaled more than 153 carries in a season since HC Kyle Shanahan showed up in 2017.
34	TB	Leonard Fournette	He was a testament as to why early fantasy drafts are risky. Fournette turned it on later last season, and the Buccaneers head into this year with two rushers. Fournette deserves to go first since he does more as a receiver but Ronald Jones still figures in and technically is the primary back. Buccaneers also fall to the No. 32 rushing schedule, so his receptions should help keep him on the field, unless Giovani Bernard assumes the role.
36	HOU	David Johnson	Texans backfield is crowded with mediocre has-beens and never-weres, and the O-line is still a liability. Worst rushing schedule. That all said, Johnson is most likely to lead the group whatever that means this year. What it mostly means is that you waited too long if Johnson is one of your starting running backs.
37	ARI	James Conner	The backfield in Arizona will be split between Conner and Chase Edmonds and last year the totals were only average for an NFL backfield. Edmonds has the advantage of knowing the offense and catching 53 passes last year. But Conner at 6-1, 233 pounds is likely to take the inside role over the 5-9, 205 pound Edmonds. Cardinals have a lighter rushing schedule this year. Coming off toe surgery but should be fine.
38	BUF	Zack Moss	Had ankle surgery in January but expected to be good to go for Week 1. This was one of the worst backfields in 2020 but Moss was busier at the end of that season. Singletary lost carries to Moss and evolved into a receiving back by the end of the year. Moss should continue to see more carries. Josh Allen running in scores undercuts what Moss could do.
39	GB	A.J. Dillon	Dillon is a must-have for the Aaron Jones owner and should supply stand-alone fantasy value with short-yardage and goal line work. The Packers rushing strength of schedule plummets from No. 2 down to only No. 31 for this season. But the O-line is one of the best.
40	LV	Kenyan Drake	He’s a great handcuff for the Josh Jacobs owner, and may pick up some work as a third-down option. He’s had his shot as a primary back and wasn’t quite up to the task.
41	BAL	Gus Edwards	Ravens just signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract as a part of the rotation. He’ll be No. 2 behind J.K. Dobbins and has no real chance of ever supplying RB1 stats. But – he’s always going to be good for some yardage and a catch or two per game. The Ravens like him and he’s a decent roster stash in case it all goes wrong and you need a consistent – even if minimally – running back. Solid O-line helps.
42	WAS	J.D. McKissic	New quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t likely toss another 110 targets at McKissic like last year. He’s a distant second to Antonio Gibson but will remain a third-down back to use to cover bye weeks.
43	BUF	Devin Singletary	Third-rounder from 2019 hasn’t quite caught fire in Buffalo and Zack Moss is taking more of the rushing load at the least. This deeply, he has enough value to merit a fantasy roster spot but his usage is trending the wrong way with the Bills
44	DAL	Tony Pollard	The Cowboys want to keep Zeke Elliott fresher for the playoffs, and Pollard looked great when he replaced the elite rusher that the defense cared about. He should see at least a tick more use this year and is a capable back if they need him to step up and replace Elliott if needed. Mostly – just the handcuff for the Elliott owner.
45	DET	Jamaal Williams	The Lions intend to use D’Andre Swift and Williams as a tandem backfield and even said “the hot hand” gets the bigger share. But the pair are complementary with Swift the fast, outside rusher and receiver and Williams more of an inside puncher. Lions have an all-new scheme, and set of coaches and skill players, but they also have an above-average O-line. Williams is a handcuff for Swift but could produce fantasy relevant stats even as a stand-alone back.
46	IND	Nyheim Hines	Nothing wrong with swinging for the fence this deep, but there’s a lot to be said about a third-down guy like Hines who catches 60 passes per season and offers about 10 points every week in PPR leagues. He won’t win your league, but he could help keep your team afloat if your backfield has injuries.
47	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Handcuff for Dalvin Cook who always misses a game or two. But short of Cook being out, Mattison offers nearly nothing while Cook handles everything.
48	NO	Latavius Murray	There is conjecture that the Saints will play Alvin Kamara as a receiver more and that Murray sees a spike in rushing from his normal 140 rushes per year. But Taysom Hill may take up carries and touchdowns, and Murray is 31 years old. Saints have a great O-line and Murray could still deliver equal to this level, but he’s getting old to expect much else.
49	HOU	Phillip Lindsay	The Texans’ log jam at running back should clear out a bit by the start of the season, but maybe not by your fantasy draft. Lindsay is just a lottery ticket that likely doesn’t pay off with what appears to be a very bad offense for 2021.
50	NYJ	Tevin Coleman	Maybe Coleman reunites with with his 49ers coaches, and he’s certainly the only veteran that’s done anything in their NFL career in their backfield. But the 28-year-old Coleman hasn’t amounted to much since 2018 with the Falcons. He’s often injured now and the Jets only paid him $2M for one year.
51	CHI	Tarik Cohen	Tore his ACL last year and still not healthy. Nope. Do not draft players that are already injured.
52	SEA	Rashaad Penny	Speaking of injured players, Penny spent all three years getting injured or recovering. Now word is that DeeJay Dallas may take some third-down duty. Going on four years, not drafting Penny has been the wise move.
53	TB	Ronald Jones	He is listed on the top of the depth chart and may end up with more carries than Leonard Fournette, but his final eight games totaled only three catches. And worse yet, Bucs have the worst rushing schedule.
54	NE	James White	No Brady, no bueno. Cam Newton preferred to run rather than dump off to White. If Mac Jones gets the start, White may matter again.
55	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	You can be really sure that if I own the best fantasy running back, I am going to own his backup. And yes, I was torched last year when I did not do this with Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers want to take it easier on McCaffrey and that could help Hubbard, but they always say that sort of thing. Hubbard is worth stealing.
56	LAR	Xavier Jones	That backfield for the Rams became interesting and yet muddy when Cam Akers was lost. Darrell Henderson defaults as the primary back but Jones should see some action. Jake Funk may also be involved. Until it is all sorted out and made permanent, Jones is a worthy final running back draft pick that could surprise.
57	IND	Marlon Mack	Mack tore his Achilles last year and Jonathan Taylor took full advantage, even as a rookie. He’s nothing more than a waiver wire pick if bad things happen to Taylor.
59	NYG	Devontae Booker	Booker is just a backup for Saquon Barkley, but Alfred Morris may also get involved. Barkley seems likely to take it easy to open the year, but Booker is not even a great handcuff, let alone have reliable weekly fantasy value.
60	HOU	Mark Ingram	The 31-year-old Ingram seems to have hit the 30-year-old wall in Baltimore last year and all but disappeared. Landing on a terrible offense with a bad O-line when he’s over the hill doesn’t promote any positive vibes.

Best of the rest

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – The Patriots have long used a committee approach to their backfield, and the rookie Stevenson may only be the No. 4 back. But there’s speculation that Sony Michel may be dropped, James White remains an under-used third-down back and primary rusher Damien Harris has been less than durable in his two years. The burly ex-Sooner has impressed and could see more work than expected. An early comparison to Corey Dillon is probably just bluster, but there is some upside here.