Here’s the simplest path to the playoffs for the Packers over final 3 weeks

The Packers only need seven results over the final three weeks to guarantee a playoff spot in the NFC. Here’s the most simple path.

Welcome to Week 16. With three games to play, the Green Bay Packers are sitting at 6-8 but still have a realistic chance of making the postseason. It will likely require winning out (beginning on Christmas Day against the Dolphins) and getting some help, but the outcomes necessary are certainly within the realm of possibility.

OK, so the Packers are alive. What’s the simplest path to the postseason for Matt LaFleur’s team?

Here it is:

– Packers win at Dolphins, vs. Vikings and vs. Lions
– Commanders lose two of three games (at 49ers, vs. Browns, vs. Cowboys)
– Seahawks lose one game (at Chiefs, vs. Jets, vs. Rams)
– Lions lose one game other than Week 18 (at Panthers, vs. Bears)

In this scenario, the Packers avoid any funky tiebreakers scenarios with the Lions if both teams end 9-8. It may not be necessary by the end of Week 18, but a second loss for the Lions ensures without any doubt that this scenario clinches a playoff spot for the Packers.

Not bad, right? This is what Aaron Rodgers meant when he said things were starting to look up for his team.

The Packers have to play three teams fighting for playoff positioning, so winning out might be the most difficult part of the equation. The help looks possible, if not likely. The Packers could get a bunch of help on Christmas Eve when the Commanders go on the road to play the 49ers and the Seahawks go on the road to play the Chiefs. Losses in each game would take care of two of the four results required to clear the path for the Packers.

What do you think? Are the Packers going to make a run and make this final three-game stretch interesting?

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Here are the Packers’ division and playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15

The Packers can clinch the NFC North two different ways and a playoff spot five different ways in Week 15.

The Green Bay Packers have two ways of clinching the NFC North title and five ways of clinching a playoff spot in Week 15 of the 2021 season.

Obviously, clinching the division title ensures a playoff spot. So let’s start there.

The Packers will be NFC North champions if:

– Packers win or tie (vs. Ravens)
– Vikings loss or tie (vs. Bears)

The Packers play the Ravens on Sunday afternoon, while the Vikings and Bears play on Monday night, so even if Green Bay loses in Baltimore, the division can still be clinched a day later if the Bears win.

The Packers can also clinch a playoff spot in a variety of ways:

– Saints loss or tie (vs. Buccaneers) + 49ers loss (vs. Falcons)
– Saints loss or tie (vs. Buccaneers) + Eagles-Washington tie
– Saints loss or tie (vs. Buccaneers) + Rams loss (vs. Seahawks) + 49ers tie (vs. Falcons)
– 49ers loss (vs. Falcons) + Eagles-Washington tie
– Rams loss (vs. Seahawks) + 49ers tie (vs. Falcons) + Eagles-Washington tie

There you have it. Seven different ways for the Packers to book their trip to the postseason for the third straight season.

Like last week, this is all somewhat of a formality. Barring some kind of epic collapse, the Packers are going to be in the playoffs as NFC North champions. The question really is: Will Matt LaFleur’s team be the No. 1 seed? At 10-3 and in possession of the top spot, the Packers can now win out and guarantee a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

The next step comes Sunday, with a chance to win a third straight game and celebrate another division title in Baltimore.

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Packers among 3 NFC teams with playoff-clinching scenarios in Week 14

The Packers, Cardinals and Buccaneers all have playoff-clinching scenarios in Week 14 of the 2021 season.

The Green Bay Packers and two other NFC teams have playoff-clinching scenarios in Week 14.

The Packers can clinch the NFC North title for the third consecutive season with a win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday night AND a Minnesota Vikings loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. The Packers can also clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Vikings loss.

The Arizona Cardinals, currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, can clinch a playoff spot with nothing more than a win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who sit in the third spot in the NFC behind the Packers and Cardinals, can clinch the NFC South with a win over the Buffalo Bills AND losses by both the Carolina Panthers (vs. Atlanta Falcons) and New Orleans Saints (at New York Jets).

All three teams clinching a playoff spot is just a matter of time. The chances of the Packers making the playoffs, for instance, are at over 99 percent at the New York Times playoff predictor.

The real race is for the No. 1 seed. If the Packers beat the Bears, the Rams beat the Cardinals and the Bills beat the Buccaneers this week, Green Bay’s chances of getting the top seed would improve to over 50 percent.

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
5. Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
6. Washington Football Team (6-6)
7. San Francisco 49ers (6-6)

In the hunt: Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Minnesota Vikings (5-7), Carolina Panthers (5-7), Atlanta Falcons (5-7), New Orleans Saints (5-7)

Notre Dame suddenly knocking on College Football Playoff door

Do you think Notre Dame ends up in the CFP?

It was known going into Saturday that at least one team in the top-seven of the College Football Playoff rankings would be going down as Ohio State and Michigan State were set to square off.

We also had an idea that No. 3 Oregon would have a tough night ahead of them as they were slight underdogs at No. 21 Utah, but nobody saw the thrashing they received coming.

What does it all mean?

That Notre Dame comes out the weekend feeling rather golden.

The Irish will likely move up two spots to six when the next batch of CFP rankings come out Tuesday night and will have guaranteed help coming. Michigan will be No. 5 and be hosting what I’d assume is No. 2 Ohio State next week. By default one of those will lose so assuming Notre Dame wins at Stanford, who has been awful this season, they’d move up another spot.

A week later No, 1 Georgia (they’ll destroy Georgia Tech next week) will take on Alabama (currently 2, might be passed by Ohio State) in the SEC Championship game. If any two-loss team were to be gifted a CFP spot we all know who that would be, but even at that I have real trouble expecting a two-loss Alabama to get in, even if they lose to Georgia in the closing seconds of that conference championship game.

That would move Notre Dame up into the top-four, even if Cincinnati (currently fifth) stays unbeaten.

The worry for Notre Dame from behind would then come from the Big 12 as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both sit with just one loss as they’ll play each of the next two weeks. I don’t believe one sweeping the other should be enough for them to pass Notre Dame, but if one does it in impressive fashion two weeks in a row they will certainly have a compelling argument.

It’s not a guarantee that Notre Dame is going to the College Football Playoff by any means, but their path has gone from rocky at best to incredibly possible with two weeks to play.

That’s not too bad for Notre Dame in what was viewed as a rebuilding year going in.

Twitter reaction to Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa’s incredible senior day score

5 Stars: the good and bad from Notre Dame’s blowout win vs. Georgia Tech

NFL Playoff Picture: Saints control their own destiny, again, in Week 16

The New Orleans Saints have several playoff scenarios to clinch the NFC South in Week 16, but the easiest path means beating the Vikings.

This is starting to sound like a broken record. The New Orleans Saints need just one more win to clinch the NFC South and secure a top-three playoff seed, keeping them in contention for the all-too-valuable top seed. That’s been the story for two weeks, and the Saints have dropped a loss in each of those two games.

But there’s still a path or two for New Orleans to clinch the division after a loss or tie. The NFL announced Week 16’s playoff clinch scenarios on Tuesday, which I’ve broken down below. All odds via BetMGM.

First, though, let’s consider the current NFL playoff picture. Here’s your projected seedings and matchups via ESPN:

Saints have 3 paths to clinching a playoff berth in Week 13

The New Orleans Saints could clinch a playoff berth in Week 13 by defeating the Atlanta Falcons and getting help from the Detroit Lions.

The New Orleans Saints have the playoffs in their sights, and the schedule shakes out to where they can clinch a postseason berth in Week 13. But they’ll need some help; beating the Atlanta Falcons won’t be enough. All odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Big 12 Championship scenarios, Texas still controls its destiny

With three weeks left in the 2020 Big 12 football season, Longhorns Wire breaks down the updated scenarios for a title game berth.

This past Saturday made the path to Arlington, Texas, a little bit clearer. Not a whole lot, but some. The victories by Iowa State and Oklahoma guaranteed a wild finish to the 2020 Big 12 football season. Continue reading “Big 12 Championship scenarios, Texas still controls its destiny”

PFF outlines best-, worst-case scenarios for 2020 Saints season

The New Orleans Saints have a range of possible outcomes for the 2020 season, but Pro Football Focus likes their odds of success.

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Expectations are high for the New Orleans Saints, and for good reason. They’ve built one of the strongest rosters (on paper) in recent memory, led by a Hall of Fame-bound quarterback in Drew Brees and a host of younger all-world talents like wide receiver Michael Thomas, defensive end Cameron Jordan, and running back Alvin Kamara.

But what exactly is the ceiling for this Saints team? Does it have what it takes to go all the way? On the other hand, what is their floor — how badly could things possibly go? To find out, the team at Pro Football Focus ran a series of simulations to see where each team is likeliest to end up. Here’s what PFF’s Ben Linsley wrote about the worst-case scenario for the Saints, which sees them going 7-9 in a disappointing effort:

How they get there:Drew Brees finally steps down from the elite tier at quarterback, and his arm decides to call it quits. That’s the only way I see this team falling below .500 given how deep the roster is from top to bottom. Sure, they have Jameis Winston to turn to, but the quick passing game to the short and intermediate areas of the field, which has been their bread and butter with Brees behind center, doesn’t necessarily align with Winston’s caution-to-the-wind, air-it-out style. If the Saints offense is forced to make that transition midseason, it could lead to disappointing results for one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

Funnily enough, the best possible scenario for the Saints has them finishing with a 12-4 record. That’s one less win than they earned in each of the last two seasons, having gone 13-3 in subsequent years for the first time in Saints history. But whatever the specifics, the Saints are expected to win double-digit games comfortably this year after a dynamite offseason. Linsley wrote:

How they get there: Brees remains as one of the game’s elite quarterbacks for one more season, and veteran additions like Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins add depth to an already talented roster. What Michael Thomas was able to do last season was impressive, but I’m sure New Orleans will be happy to have someone like Sanders share the load with him. On defense, Janoris Jenkins continues to play as well as he did after signing with the Saints late in the 2019 season, and Malcolm Jenkins gives the side another versatile safety to pair with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, providing the team with plenty of options when it comes to filling the box and covering slot receivers.

We’ll see where the Saints end up come January, but these aren’t a terrible range of options to work with. Fans have gone through 7-9 seasons before, which would be disappointing for sure, but that isn’t exactly breaking new ground. With possible heirs to Brees like Winston and Taysom Hill already in the building, and much of the team’s young talent signed on for the long haul, a misstep in 2020 wouldn’t be the end of their story.

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2020 NFL Draft: Comparing 5 Saints mock draft scenarios

The New Orleans Saints are likely to draft a wide receiver early and bulk up the offensive line, if 2020 NFL Draft mock-ups are accurate.

It’s one thing to come up with a mock-up of the 2020 NFL Draft out of thin air; it’s something else entirely to step over to The Draft Network and give their mock draft simulator a spin — five times. That’s what we’ve done, setting the board to be automatically filled by their algorithm, revealing five different scenarios for the Saints.

So to be clear: there was no input from us in the selections, just the program making decisions based off predetermined team needs and the prospects that were available. It was an interesting exercise. Here’s who ended up wearing black and gold in each of the five simulations:

Scenario 1

Round 1, Pick 24. Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
Round 3, Pick 88. Jake Fromm, QB Georgia
Round 4, Pick 120. Solomon Kindley, IOL Georgia
Round 5, Pick 151. David Woodward, LB Utah State
Round 6, Pick 183. D.J. Wonnum, EDGE South Carolina

Eat your heart out, SEC fans. The Saints ended up with an ideal number-two wide receiver, a potential quarterback of the future, and a starting-quality guard. Jefferson is almost tailor-made for the Saints offense and it’s encouraging that he was available in this first run. Fromm has been described as having some of the same strengths and weaknesses as Drew Brees (limited downfield passing ability but nice short-range accuracy), which is troubling considering he doesn’t have two decades of wear and tear in the NFL to explain his limitations. Kindley feels like a steal in the fourth round.

Woodward and Wonnum are nice depth, with Wonnum measuring out as one of the more-explosive linebackers at the combine (he recorded a 123-inch broad jump at 6-foot-5, 258 pounds), though he probably figures to play with his hand in the dirt as an undersized defensive end like Trey Hendrickson and Carl Granderson. Woodard is more of a marginal athlete, clocking the 40-yard dash in 4.79 seconds at 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, but that didn’t stop him from averaging 13-plus tackles the last two years at Utah State. He has a knack for finding the football, with six forced fumbles (and a recovery) and two interceptions in that same span.

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2019 NFL playoff scenarios for Week 17: How the AFC and NFC stack up

A look at the 2019 NFL playoff scenarios for the Seattle Seahawks and the rest of the league heading into the final week of the season.

The Seattle Seahawks have clinched a spot in this year’s playoffs and still have the chance to win the division with a victory over the San Francisco 49ers Sunday night.

Here’s a look at how the rest of the teams in the AFC and NFC stack up for the final week of the regular season, per NFL Communications.

AFC

CLINCHED:

Baltimore Ravens – AFC North division and home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs

Houston Texans – AFC South division

Kansas City Chiefs – AFC West division

New England Patriots – AFC East division

Buffalo Bills – playoff berth

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-4) vs. L.A. Chargers (5-10)

Kansas City clinches a first-round bye with:

KC win + NE loss

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) vs. Miami (4-11)

New England clinches a first-round bye with:

NE win or tie OR
KC loss or tie

OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-8) at Denver (6-9)

Oakland clinches a playoff berth with:

OAK win + PIT loss + TEN loss + IND win + OAK clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over PIT*

*OAK clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over PIT if ONE of the following teams win or tie:

CHI, DET, LAC OR NE

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) at Baltimore (13-2)

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:

PIT win + TEN loss or tie OR
PIT tie + TEN loss OR
TEN loss + IND win + OAK loss or tie OR
TEN loss + IND win + PIT ties OAK in strength-of-victory tiebreaker*

*PIT ties OAK in strength-of-victory tiebreaker if ALL of the following teams win:

MIN, GB, KC AND MIA

TENNESSEE TITANS (8-7) at Houston (10-5)

Tennessee clinches a playoff berth with:

TEN win OR
TEN tie + PIT loss or tie OR
PIT loss + IND loss or tie

Tag: scenarios