The San Francisco Giants (25-25) and Milwaukee Brewers (27-23) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set at American Family Field Friday. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Giants lead 3-1
The Giants took Game 1 of the series 5-0 as -131 favorites Thursday. San Francisco used 6 different pitchers in a bullpen game shutout. OF Michael Conforto went 4 for 4 with a solo home run. The Giants are 8-2 over the last 10 games and 6-2 against the NL Central.
The Brewers had just 4 hits and struck out 13 times in Thursday’s series opener. They have lost 6 of 10 and are 13-17 over the last 30. They are still clinging to a 1½-game lead in the NL Central. The Brew Crew are 15-10 at home but just 8-9 against left-handed starters, which they’ll face Friday.
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Giants at Brewers projected starters
LHP Alex Wood vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Wood (0-0, 4.05 ERA) is scheduled to make his 6th start and 7th appearance of 2023. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 20 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-5 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Sunday
- One start vs. Brewers over last 4 years: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER (3 unearned), 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 8-5 home win July 15, 2022
Peralta (5-3, 4.15 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 52 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 6-4 victory at Tampa Bay Rays Sunday
- Last 2 starts: 1-1, 6.54 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 11 H, 8 BB, 8 K
- 1 career start vs. Giants: No-decision in “opener role,” 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home win Sept. 8, 2022
Giants at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Giants at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 6, Brewers 4
Moneyline
This will be an interesting one because Thursday was a bullpen game for the Giants, and Wood hasn’t gone more than 4 2/3 IP in his last 8 starts, going back to last season. On the other side, Peralta has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 7 starts.
Neither team has a good bullpen — the Giants are the 5th-worst in baseball at 4.70 even after 9 shutout innings Thursday. So, this will be a battle of the lumber in what I’d expect to be a closed roof at 58 degrees in Milwaukee.
The Giants are 4-0 in Wood’s last 4 starts vs. the NL Central, and they’re 4-1 in his 5 starts this season.
I’ll take the GIANTS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There is a prop bet that stands out, however. So, Wood has not struck out 6 hitters in a start this season. Is it possible he goes 5 or 6 innings and fans 7? Sure, he did it in his start against Milwaukee last season. But I’m going to stick with recent history, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this prop bet nerfed to 4.5 before first pitch.
Take ALEX WOOD UNDER 5.5 K’S (-125).
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Over/Under
The forecast calls for 58 degrees in Milwaukee, which means the roof should be closed. There are a lot of Under trends here. It’s 5-0 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings in Milwaukee and 9-4 in the last 13 overall.
However, the Over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 home starts for Peralta when the number is between 7.0-8.5, and it’s 5-0-2 in hist last 7 starts at such a total. Plus, the Over is 3-0-1 in Wood’s last 4 Friday starts.
With the state of San Fran’s bullpen, and Peralta handing out earned runs, I’m going to LEAN OVER 8 (-105) as I feel the total should be a little higher.
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