Tag: San Francisco Giants odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (75-70) meet the San Francisco Giants (95-51) Thursday at Oracle Park for the finale of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2 but the Padres snapped the Giants’ nine-game win streak by beating them 9-6 Wednesday.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-5.

RHP Pierce Johnson is San Diego’s projected opener for what’s most likely a bullpen day. He is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 across one start and 55 relief appearances.

  • Last five outings: 0-0 (team record is 1-4) with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in appearances against the Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers (twice) and Houston Astros (twice).
  • Johnson has made four relief appearances against the Giants this season with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K over 4 1/3 IP.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (22 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .200 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .302 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.3 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 30th start for the Giants. He is 14-5 with a 2.65 ERA (170 IP, 50 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-5, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
  • Gausman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (19 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 18 K in three starts against the Padres in 2021.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (136 PA): 2.11 FIP with a .252 BA, .274 wOBA, .395 xSLG, 27.9 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-200) even though there’s significant “reverse line movement” (RLM) because they have an edge in the three most important phases of baseball (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered at the time of writing and more than three-fourths of the bets are on the Giants, according to Pregame.com, but their money line has been brought down from the -235 consensus opener.

Typically, I’d be leery of betting into RLM but, perhaps San Francisco opened as too big of a favorite and the market has beaten this game into the proper pricing.

Also, I’d entertain throwing San Francisco’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout because this is such a good spot for the Giants.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because Gausman should at least show up on the NL Cy Young ballot this season and San Diego’s bullpen has been terrible lately.

Over the past two weeks, Padres relievers have the worst WAR, sixth-worst xFIP and fourth-worst HR/9. On top of that, the Giants are 41-22 ATS against NL West foes and 30-23 ATS as home favorites while the Padres are just 29-37 ATS in divisional games.

I’d prefer to lay it with GIANTS -1.5 (+110) than bet San Francisco’s money line outright or parlaying it. My hesitation with betting the Giants -1.5 (+110) heavier is we have the same RLM in the ATS market as well.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under whereas the public is backing the Under.

Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. More importantly, San Diego’s lineup has been the most disappointing in the majors since the All-Star break. That’s mostly due to lofty expectations, partially set by the market but also due to the level of talent San Diego sends to the plate.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (95-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-70) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco has steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-4.

RHP Joe Musgrove is San Diego’s projected starter. Musgrove is 10-9 with a 2.93 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday.
  • Musgrove has lost both starts against San Francisco this season and has an 8.10 ERA (10 IP, 9 ER) with 12 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (96 PA): 2.97 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .297 wOBA, .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 83.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Dominic Leone takes the ball as an opener for San Francisco’s bullpen day. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.41 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in three starts and 43 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 9-1 win over San Diego Monday with 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (36 PA): 4.43 FIP with a .242 BA, .292 wOBA, .464 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+155) | Giants +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-110) for a tiny wager because I have no choice but to bet baseball’s best team if you’re giving me a coin-flip price.

It’s a bit “square” since we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market (more on that below), but oddsmakers are reacting to the public’s action on San Francisco by making the Giants’ money line more expensive.

Musgrove is less effective on the road; he’s got a 4.25 road FIP (2.82 FIP at home), 16.8% K-BB (24.5% K-BB at home) and a lower home run per nine-inning rate in San Diego.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS as much as I’d love some insurance on our San Francisco money line play because the implied win probability of the Giants +1.5 (-190) is 65.52%, but their cover rate as a home underdog is only 58.8% (10-7 ATS).

Since I only “lean” toward San Francisco outright, I am also unwilling to lay it with Giants -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line.

Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” money is backing San Diego’s money line whereas the public is betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, so laying it with the Giants on the alternate line is too risky of a proposition.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit since both sides of the market are betting the Under hence it being way more expensive than the Over.

San Diego’s lineup has been awful lately and San Francisco’s bullpen has been dialed in. Padres hitters rank dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks, while the Giants’ relievers are 6-1 with the best ERA over that span.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-69) meet the San Francisco Giants (94-50) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco clobbered San Diego 9-1 in the series opener Monday as the Giants came out the gate with a 5-run bottom of the first inning and finished with 4 home runs in the game.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 6-4.

RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 5-12 with a 7.04 ERA (94 2/3 IP, 74 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 22 starts for the Padres and Chicago Cubs.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 3 against the Houston Astros.
  • Arrieta lost at San Francisco, 8-5, June 4 while pitching for the Cubs with a stat line of 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (146 PA): 3.23 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Anthony DeSclafani is on the mound for the Giants. He is 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (146 IP, 54 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 27 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 7-4 victory at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • DeSclafani is 0-1 through three starts with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 6 BB and 10 K this season against San Diego.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (129 PA): 5.01 FIP with a .205 BA, .285 wOBA, .426 xSLG, 20.2 K% and 91.6 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Giants 8, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

PASS even though the Giants (-190) are clearly the right side because we’d be getting the worst of the number. San Francisco opened as a -154 consensus market favorite before both sides steamed them up to the current price.

There’s heavy one-sided action in San Francisco’s direction and maybe if this were the NFL or NBA I’d be down to fade such a lopsided market but there’s less recreational money in MLB betting markets and fading the Giants this season would’ve destroyed a gambler’s bankroll.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching and hitting matchup and even San Francisco’s bullpen has pitched better than San Diego’s recently.

The Padres’ relief unit has been a strength for them all season but over the past 14 days, San Diego’s bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP, seventh-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the third-worst WAR.

It’s tough to have any confidence in Arrieta against this awesome San Francisco lineup but the Giants could for sure pad whatever lead they have against the Padres’ struggling bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both sides of the market are barrelling into the OVER 8.5 (-130) hence it being the far pricier side and I’d have to agree that the Over is the right side.

San Diego went Over the total in four of its last five games, San Francisco hit the Over in three straight and the Over cashed in six consecutive Padres-Giants meetings.

Also, San Diego will most likely need its bullpen to step up because Arrieta has a 12.17 ERA over his last seven starts and DeSclafani’s effectiveness has regressed since the All-Star Game. DeSclafani’s ERA, WHIP, home run per nine-inning rate and opponent’s OPS has all been much worse in the second half of the year.

BET OVER 8.5 (-130) for 1 unit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (93-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-68) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Oracle Park with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 5-4.

RHP Yu Darvish gets the nod for the Padres. Darvish is 8-9 with a 3.95 ERA (146 IP, 64 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-5, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Darvish is 1-0 with 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 19 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Giants.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (100 PA): 4.07 FIP with a .222 batting average (BA), .296 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Dominic Leone is San Francisco’s projected starter. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.48 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across two starts and 43 relief appearances.

  • Last four games (two starts and two bullpen outings): Four no-decisions, but San Francisco won each game, Leone had 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (29 PA): 5.17 FIP with a .269 BA, .332 wOBA, .481 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 85.0 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:17 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+145) | Giants +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES (-110) for a tiny wager because for all of Darvish’s struggles since the pitching substances memo has gone into effect June 21, San Diego is still 16-10 in games Darvish starts. Also, the Giants are having a bullpen day Monday and their relief pitching has been mediocre over the past couple of weeks.

However, both the “pros” and “joes” are backing San Francisco, which has caused oddsmakers to steam the Giants up from a +108 consensus underdog to the current price.

Furthermore, San Francisco has won nine of its last 10 games, are 36 games above-.500 against righty starters and have the second-best home winning percentage in the majors with a 45-23 overall record.

That said, I’ll take a small flyer on the PADRES (-110) since they’ve won both games Darvish started vs. the Giants this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because no way I’d lay it with Padres -1.5 (+145) considering San Diego is 20-28 ATS as a road favorite, San Francisco is 10-7 ATS as a home underdog and these teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-130) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in the last five Padres-Giants meetings, San Diego is 17-9 O/U in Darvish starts and San Diego’s bullpen has been atrocious lately.

The Padres relievers have a 5.40 ERA (ranked 26th), a 2.03 home run per nine-inning rate (ranked 28th) and the third-worst hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.

It’s only a “lean” because both Padres-Giants meetings with Darvish on the mound fell short of the total, but the OVER 7.5 (-130) is my favorite play in this contest.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (80-52) and San Francisco Giants (84-47) continue their four-game series at Oracle Park Tuesday with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Monday’s series opener 3-1 as Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes had 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Woodruff is 8-7 with a 2.38 ERA (151 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 10 K Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Woodruff got a no-decision Aug. 7 against San Francisco with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 home loss.

San Francisco hadn’t announced a starter by the time of publishing.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+130) | Giants +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 1

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-135) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has a significant edge in starting and relief pitching even though San Francisco hasn’t officially named its starter.

Either way, we know the Giants definitely will not start RHP Kevin Gausman and Woodruff has better basic and advanced pitching numbers than any starter in San Francisco’s rotation. The Brew Crew’s bullpen has a better xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% than the Giants’ relievers.

Lastly, Milwaukee’s lineup has been hotter than San Francisco’s over the last two weeks. Giants hitters are in the bottom-seven in wRC+, wOBA and WAR across the last 14 days.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite with Woodruff on the mound.

Even though the Brewers have the fourth-best cover rate as a road favorite at 24-19 ATS, I’d still need Milwaukee’s run line price to be north of +150 before taking a stab.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a tiny wager because the Brewers are 8-18-1 O/U as a road favorite, 4-6-1 O/U as a road favorite with Woodruff on the rubber and 9-15-1 O/U in Woodruff’s 25 starts. The Under is also 5-0-1 in Milwaukee’s previous six games.

That said, the Giants have played more to the Over as a home underdog and the weather forecast predicts double-digit mph winds blowing out to left-centerfield, which helps both offenses.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (84-46) host the Milwaukee Brewers (79-52) Monday to kick off a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee snapped a three-game skid with a 6-2 victory Sunday at the Minnesota Twins in the finale of a three-game series. The Brewers have won 13 of their last 20 games and are 8.5 games atop the NL Central standings.

San Francisco lost the rubber match of their three-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 9-0, but the Giants have won 15 of their last 20 games and are 2.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1.

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 23rd start for the Brewers. Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA (133 IP, 34 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 7-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
  • Burnes got a no-decision Aug. 6 against San Francisco with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 2-1 home victory.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster: 2.51 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .234 wOBA, .312 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.9 K% and 82.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 52 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Giants. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.73 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K in 3-2 win at the New York Mets Wednesday.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB in 10 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.79 FIP with a .282 BA, .338 wOBA, .479 xSLG, 16.5 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 85 PA.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because they have a big edge in pitching, there’s “reverse line movement” in Milwaukee’s direction and the Brew Crew is the best road team in the majors.

Burnes has better basic numbers and advanced pitching numbers against San Francisco than Cueto vs. Milwaukee. Also, Burnes grades in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, K%, xSLG, expected wOBA, and chase rate.

Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks higher than San Francisco’s in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and swinging-strike rate.

On top of that, the Brewers batters rank better than the Giants in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.

Lastly, more than 60% of the action is on San Francisco’s money line, but the Brewers’ money line has been moved up from -120 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com). It’s a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+120) needs to be north of +145 for me to take a stab at Milwaukee’s run line because the Giants are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs and have the best home winning percentage in MLB.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as the presumed “sharp” money favors the Under whereas the public is backing the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Under, but a slight majority of the bets placed are with the Over. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (83-45) meet the Atlanta Braves (69-58) at Truist Park Saturday for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta fought back from an early deficit with a 4-run 7th-inning rally punctuated by a 3-run home run from RF Jorge Soler to key its 6-5 victory in the series opener.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0.

RHP Logan Webb is on the hill for the Giants. Webb is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 18 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K in San Francisco’s 2-1 victory at the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
  • Road splits: 2-3 with a 3.88 ERA (51 IP, 22 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB rate in 10 starts.
  • Second half splits: 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in eight starts.

RHP Huascar Ynoa gets the start for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA (56 IP, 18 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 10 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 9 K Monday against the New York Yankees.
  • Home splits: 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB in five starts.

Giants at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

The Braves have been one of the hotter teams in baseball recently. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, their only losses came against an even hotter New York Yankees squad Monday and Tuesday.

The same could be said about the Giants except their past seven wins have been against the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets – both of which are in the midst of slumps.

Atlanta having more impressive wins recently is part of the reason why I “LEAN” to the BRAVES (-115) for a half unit. The other part is Webb has been a little less effective on the road this year while Ynoa has been more effective in Atlanta.

Also, I’m cool with fading a market that’s betting San Francisco at nearly a 75% clip according to Pregame.com, because the public has come around on the Giants being a legit World Series contender and might be sleeping on the Braves’ recent turnaround.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-200) is too expensive even though San Francisco is 11-20 ATS as a road favorite and Atlanta is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.

I’d entertain parlaying Atlanta’s run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line if it were south of -170 but Braves +1.5 (-200) is a no-go.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a half unit because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market. With more than 90% of the cash being wagered on the Under according to Pregame.com the total hasn’t moved much from the 8.5-run opener.

Not only am I willing to fade the market because of the line freeze but also because the Braves are 32-18-3 O/U as home favorites and the Giants are 18-17-1 O/U as road underdogs.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (82-44) and New York Mets (61-65) conclude their three-game set Thursday at Citi Field with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco won the first two games of the series including a 3-2 victory Wednesday thanks to yet another late-inning rally with SS Brandon Crawford‘s 2-RBI double in the 7th inning.

Season series: Giants lead 4-1.

LHP Alex Wood is San Francisco’s projected starter. Wood is 10-4 with a 4.11 ERA (120 1/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-1, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Oakland Athletics Friday.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (52 PA): 3.74 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .260 wOBA, .389 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his sixth start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 23 H, 4 BB and 18 K.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Friday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (29 PA): 1.70 FIP with a .111 BA, .163 wOBA, .248 xSLG, 31.0 K% and 84.4 mph EV.

Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the GIANTS (-130) for 1 unit because they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game, they’ve been profitable in similar situations and both the pros and the joes are backing San Francisco.

San Francisco’s bullpen has the second-best FIP since the All-Star Game, Wood has a much better FIP than Carrasco on the season and the Giants’ hitters rank sixth in wRC+ while the Mets are 19th.

On top of that, the Giants are 12-5 overall on the road against righty starters as -120 money line or greater favorites and 4-1 in those spots when Wood gets the start.

Since both sides of the market are betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, oddsmakers have moved New York from a slight favorite on the opening line to the current price.

Also, the Mets are just 14-25 overall against lefty starters and the Giants have the second-best road winning percentage in baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because New York is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog and San Francisco is 11-19 ATS as a road favorite so I don’t see much value in laying it with the Giants -1.5 (+130).

For what it’s worth, three of Wood’s four road victories against righty starters as a -119 money line or greater favorite have been by at least 2 runs, San Francisco has the cover rate in MLB at 77-49 ATS and New York has the third-worst cover rate at 54-72 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because San Francisco’s money line is my favorite bet in this Giants-Mets contest.

However, we have an obvious “line freeze” as roughly 75% of the cash is on the Over according to Pregame.com yet the total hasn’t budged from the opener.

More importantly, both teams have played more to the Under in their location-based splits and the Under has cashed in four straight meetings between the two clubs.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (61-64) host the San Francisco Giants (81-44) Wednesday for the second of their three-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco drilled New York 8-0 in the first game of the series as Giants 1B Brandon Belt stood out by going 4-for-5 at the plate with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs.

Season series: Giants lead 3-1.

RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s projected starter. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA (104 IP, 45 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in San Francisco’s 5-4 win at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 4.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.56 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in nine starts.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .298 batting average (BA), .356 wOBA, .484 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets. Walker is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-1, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA (62 IP, 21 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in 11 starts.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .271 BA, .337 wOBA, .366 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 89.4 mph EV in 58 PA.

Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-205) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-125) for a half unit because they have been very profitable at home with Walker on the mound, and bettors would’ve lost money if they blindly backed the Giants on the road with Cueto getting the start.

For instance, New York is 8-3 at home when Walker starts with a plus-32.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average money line of -130. While San Francisco is 4-5 on the road with Cueto on the bump with a minus-18.4% ROI and an average money line of -111.

However, I can only “lean” toward the Mets because the Giants are 3-0 as road underdogs when Cueto gets the start, and New York’s lineup has been terrible following the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 14-31 ATS as a home favorite and San Francisco is 30-4 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the Mets are 13-27-3 O/U as a home favorite, and we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the cash is on the Under whereas a slight majority of the action is on the Over. Typically, in sports gambling, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (23-14) meet the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-22) Friday for the second game of a four-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 1-0 after Thursday’s 3-1 victory.

RHP Kevin Gausman gets the nod for the Giants. Gausman is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 over 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-1, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K vs. the San Diego Padres Saturday.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.47 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 over 6 starts and 2 relief appearances (last start was in 2019).
    • vs. Pirates on the current roster: 71 at-bats with a .254/.289/.408 slash line, 17/4 K/BB, 2 HR and 6 RBIs.

RHP Miguel Yajure is the projected starter for the Pirates. He dropped his first MLB start, while allowing 4 earned runs (2 home runs) on 4 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts in Pittsburgh’s 5-2 loss at the Detroit Tigers April 21.

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Giants at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (-115) | Pirates +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” because Gausman hasn’t pitched well in PNC Park throughout his career, making Giants (-200) a no-go, but good teams beat up on the lowly Pirates (+165) and San Francisco is a good team.

For instance, Gausman is 1-2 with a 7.32 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.58 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 over 3 starts and 2 bullpen outings at PNC Park.

Also, since the beginning of last season, the Giants are 38-21 vs. teams with a losing record while the Pirates are 19-39 against teams with a winning record.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-105) for a half unit because Gausman hasn’t been sharp at PNC Park and the Giants -1.5 (-115) bullpen has been subpar this year.

San Francisco’s bullpen is 24th in xFIP, 20th in K-BB%, 26th in home runs per nine and second-to-last in WAR, so the backdoor is going to be open in the late innings.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-105) for a half unit because the Giants have a 4-2 O/U record in Gausman starts, partially due to San Francisco’s weak bullpen.

But, the Giants have several key bats that could be out of the lineup tonight such as 2B Donovan Solano, 1B Brandon Belt, and SS Brandon Crawford.

Also, Pittsburgh’s lineup is at the bottom of the league in several advanced hitting categories such as 26th in wRC+, wOBA and OPS and dead-last in hard-hit rate.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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