Tag: Brewers Giants odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (18-15) and San Francisco Giants (15-17) meet Sunday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Giants lead 2-0

The Brewers lost 4-1 as +152 underdogs at the Giants Saturday. 2B Owen Miller drove in the lone run for the Brewers, who have lost 6 straight games.

The Giants closed as -165 favorites in Saturday’s win. 2B Thairo Estrada hit a 2-run HR in the bottom of the 3rd inning as San Francisco won its 4th straight game.

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Brewers at Giants projected starters

RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Ross Stripling

Houser (10-6, 3.22 ERA in 2022) makes his 1st start of 2023. He had a 1.46 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 102 2/3 IP last season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 6-2 loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals September 27, 2022
  • One career relief appearance vs. Giants: 2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Stripling (0-1, 6.10 ERA) makes his 4th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 20 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-3 loss at Houston Astros Monday
  • Career vs. Brewers: 1-0, 1.53 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 19 K in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances

Brewers at Giants odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Giants -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-175) | Giants -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Brewers at Giants picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 3

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (+110).

Milwaukee lost the first 2 games of the series by multiple runs but should be able to avoid the sweep. The Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and should be able to bounce back. Stripling has been underwhelming this season and should continue to struggle vs. the Brewers who are facing the threat of getting swept.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Milwaukee +1.5 (-175) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Brewers moneyline should hit. Bet Milwaukee moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-105).

The Under is 3-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 5 games vs. right-handed starters and 21-8-3 in its last 32 after a loss.

These teams tend to play low-scoring games vs. each other, with the Under hitting in 8 of the last 11 meetings, and Sunday’s matchup should stay under the total again after both teams combined for just 5 runs Saturday.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (18-13) and San Francisco Giants (13-17) open up a 3-game set at Oracle Park Friday. First pitch is at 10:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Giants won 4-3 in 2022

The Brew Crew was swept in Colorado earlier in the week and have dropped 4 in a row. They are just 10-10 over the last 20 games. They are clearly struggling without a couple starting pitchers. What was built to be a strength, the Brewers sit 25th in pitcher strikeouts at 7.79/game.

The Giants took 2 of 3 from the defending-champion Houston Astros on the road this week. They’ve won 6 of 10 and sit 5 games back in the NL West. San Francisco is doing it with power, ranking 4th in MLB with 1.60 homers per game.

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Brewers at Giants projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Burnes (3-1, 4.01 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.

  • Last start Saturday vs. LA Angels: 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
  • His 7.2 K/9 is a career low
  • Last 5 GS vs. Giants: 2-0, 1.03 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 49 K in 35 IP

Manaea (0-1, 7.85 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 18 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 9 ER in 5 2/3 IP over last 2 GS
  • Last GS vs. Milwaukee June 2, 2022: 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K

Brewers at Giants odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Giants +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Giants +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Brewers at Giants picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 2

Moneyline

Burnes has not pitched like himself this year, but any time you can get the Brewers against a sub-.500 team for -120 with him on the hill, you very much consider it. Yes, Burnes’ strikeouts are down, but the Giants fan the most in baseball at 10.70/game. Sweeten the deal with BREWERS ML + BURNES 5K (+100) at even money. Burnes owns the Giants with at least 9K in his last 4 GS against them.

Run line/Against the spread

The Brewers are 15-16 on the RL and 9-7 on the road. The Giants are 14-16 and 7-7 at home. These teams have played each other tough with 3 one-run games in the last 6. But with Manaea out there pitching batting practice, I’ll throw a HALF-UNIT at BREWERS -1.5 (+140).

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Over/Under

Milwaukee and San Francisco are 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10. It’s a chilly 56 degrees with a 10-mph gust blowing out to left-center. We’ve had 7 Unders cash in the last 10 games between these teams.

I’ll LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

[mm-video type=video id=01g7spc31eghz4594yah playlist_id=01fb7dafw2b08817yr player_id=none image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01g7spc31eghz4594yah/01g7spc31eghz4594yah-4bc1f0b901dc7149784fc9d92c17b982.jpg]

The Milwaukee Brewers (50-41) continue their 4-game series with the San Francisco Giants (46-43) Saturday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1

San Francisco evened this series with an 8-5 victory Friday after Milwaukee won the Thursday’s opener 3-2 in 10 innings.

San Francisco is 4-6 in the last 10 games and 13 games behind the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Milwaukee is 6-4 in the last 10 and leads the NL Central by 2 games.

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Brewers at Giants projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Alex Cobb

Lauer is 6-3 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 89 1/3 IP across 16 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-6 home loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
  • 2021 vs. Giants: One start, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K in no-decision of 5-1 road win Sept. 2

Cobb is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 63 IP over 13 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home setback vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Monday
  • 2022 home splits: 2-4, 3.62 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 2 HR, 10.1 K/9 in 8 starts

Brewers at Giants odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Giants -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-190) | Giants -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Brewers at Giants picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Giants 4

Money line

BET BREWERS (+110).

They have the fresher bullpen, an edge in the starting pitching matchup and there’s “reverse-line movement” headed toward Milwaukee in the betting market.

More than 60% of the bets placed are on the Giants (-135) according to VegasInsider.com, but San Francisco’s ML has been lowered from a -141 opener.

The Brew Crew are 5-4 – with a plus-23.9% return on investment – as road underdogs vs. right-handed starters.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Even though I’d love some insurance for our Milwaukee ML wager, the Brewers +1.5 (-190) is appropriately priced and too expensive. They are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs, while the Giants are 11-29 ATS as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-130). The price suggests the Over is the “sharper” play and both bullpens could be fatigued.

However, the betting splits and situational O/U trends don’t provide much of a clue, so I can only LEAN OVER 7.5 (-130).

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (50-40) face the San Francisco Giants (45-43) Friday for the second game of their 4-game series. First pitch from Oracle Park is 10:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewer vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Brewers took a 1-0 lead in the season series with a 3-2 win Thursday.

The Brewers are 6-6 in their last 12 games and hold a three-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

The Giants had won 4 of their last 5 games before they lost the opener. They are in 3rd place in the NL West and trail the Dodgers by 13 games.

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Brewers at Giants projected starters

RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. LHP Alex Wood

Woodruff (7-3, 4.01 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 60 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks with 9 strikeouts in 6 innings in a 4-3 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday, receiving no decision.
  • Had a 1.71 ERA over 4 starts prior to his last outing.

Wood (6-7, 4.43 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 85 1/3 IP.

  • Pitched 7 scoreless innings and picked up the victory in a 12-0 win over the San Diego Padres in his last outing Sunday.
  • He has allowed only 1 run in his last 12 innings across 2 starts.

Brewers at Giants odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+130) | Giants +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Brewers at Giants picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 3

Money line

The Brewers’ 29 road wins are the second most in the majors. They have won 7 of their last 9 road contests.

The Giants are 2-2 in the current homestand but have lost 8 of their last 12 home games.

Woodruff has been pitching very well as of late, so lean on that against a Giants team that has been held to 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 15 games.

Take BREWERS (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Brewers, despite their stellar 29-21 road record, are only 23-27 ATS on the road — the 3rd-worst mark in baseball. They are 12-23 ATS as road favorites.

Five of the Giants’ last 10 losses have been by only 1 run, including the series opener.

Take GIANTS +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under

The Giants have been held to 3 or fewer runs 9 time in their last 15 games.

Four of Woodruff’s last 5 starts have had 7 or fewer runs.

Five of the Brewers’ last 7 games have had 7 or fewer runs.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-130).

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (82-52) and San Francisco Giants (84-49) cap off a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is set for 3:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Eric Lauer is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-5 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 14 starts and four relief stints.

  • Has been aided by a .276 batting average on balls in play.
  • Owns a 3.12 ERA over 26 second-half innings. Has averaged just 4.3 IP/start over that stretch.

RHP Logan Webb is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. In 20 games (19 starts) this season, Webb is 8-3 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 105 1/3 IP.

  • Went into this season with a 5.36 ERA, 1.52 WHIP across 21 career games.
  • Coming off seven shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves in his last start. Owns a 1.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in the second half.
  • Has clocked a 1.71 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in his starts at home.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Giants -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-140) | Giants -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Giants 5, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers have won the first three games of this series and four in a row overall. Milwaukee is 16-6 since Aug. 10. The Brewers own an .803 OPS over that stretch despite struggling with their bats for much of this season.

The Giants have managed just 5 runs over the first three games of this series. A top-10 offense overall, the Giants have clocked a mere .653 OPS over their last 13 games.

With some lean on San Francisco cleaning things up but in a higher scoring contest, the run line and the Over figure as the top plays in this matchup. PASS on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

San Francisco owns a mere .628 OPS over the last week. But that figure is weighed down by a .245 batting average on balls in play. The Giants make contact at an above-average clip, so that’s an especially tough BABIP to muscle through.

With an Over bet in play, TAKE SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both offenses have Statcast quality-of-contact figures that point to likely regression. But the starters’ numbers swing the other way and make for enough leverage to bring a partial-unit Over wager into play. BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-130).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (81-52) and San Francisco Giants (84-48) meet Wednesday for the third game of a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is set for 9:49 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Brett Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-8 with a 4.27 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 over 86 1/3 IP through 20 starts.

  • Has walked 4.3 batters per nine in posting an 8.53 ERA over his last three starts.
  • Has a shaky line against San Francisco with an .876 OPS allowed and brings some injury concerns (right hip tightness) into this turn.
  • Owns a road ERA of 5.00 across 12 starts.

RHP Kevin Gausman is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. He is 12-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 through 152 IP over 26 starts.

  • Is tough on lefty bats, and that’s a key to pitching well against Milwaukee. Has pitched through the traffic of a .329 batting average on balls in play to post a 3.16 ERA over the last month.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-140) | Giants -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers have won the first two games of this series and three in a row overall. Milwaukee is 15-6 since Aug. 10. The Brewers own an .803 OPS over that stretch despite struggling with their bats for much of this season.

San Francisco has scored just 3 runs of the first two games of this series. A top-10 offense overall, the Giants have clocked a mere .653 OPS over their last dozen games. Regardless, the Giants had gone 15-4 over their previous 19 games prior to their three-game skid.

Some fade of the batting on both sides meets crossed signals on the mound: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Gausman has benefited from a .253 batting average on balls in play. He’s catching a warmed-up Brewer offense that owns an .819 OPS on the road since the All-Star break.

With an Under bet in play, TAKE MILWAUKEE +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under is 3-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last five games, and it’s 6-2-1 in San Francisco’s last nine outings.

Both offenses have Statcast quality-of-contact figures that point to likely regression. BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (80-52) and San Francisco Giants (84-47) continue their four-game series at Oracle Park Tuesday with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Monday’s series opener 3-1 as Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes had 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Woodruff is 8-7 with a 2.38 ERA (151 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 10 K Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Woodruff got a no-decision Aug. 7 against San Francisco with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 home loss.

San Francisco hadn’t announced a starter by the time of publishing.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+130) | Giants +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 1

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-135) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has a significant edge in starting and relief pitching even though San Francisco hasn’t officially named its starter.

Either way, we know the Giants definitely will not start RHP Kevin Gausman and Woodruff has better basic and advanced pitching numbers than any starter in San Francisco’s rotation. The Brew Crew’s bullpen has a better xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% than the Giants’ relievers.

Lastly, Milwaukee’s lineup has been hotter than San Francisco’s over the last two weeks. Giants hitters are in the bottom-seven in wRC+, wOBA and WAR across the last 14 days.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite with Woodruff on the mound.

Even though the Brewers have the fourth-best cover rate as a road favorite at 24-19 ATS, I’d still need Milwaukee’s run line price to be north of +150 before taking a stab.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a tiny wager because the Brewers are 8-18-1 O/U as a road favorite, 4-6-1 O/U as a road favorite with Woodruff on the rubber and 9-15-1 O/U in Woodruff’s 25 starts. The Under is also 5-0-1 in Milwaukee’s previous six games.

That said, the Giants have played more to the Over as a home underdog and the weather forecast predicts double-digit mph winds blowing out to left-centerfield, which helps both offenses.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (84-46) host the Milwaukee Brewers (79-52) Monday to kick off a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee snapped a three-game skid with a 6-2 victory Sunday at the Minnesota Twins in the finale of a three-game series. The Brewers have won 13 of their last 20 games and are 8.5 games atop the NL Central standings.

San Francisco lost the rubber match of their three-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 9-0, but the Giants have won 15 of their last 20 games and are 2.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1.

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 23rd start for the Brewers. Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA (133 IP, 34 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 7-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
  • Burnes got a no-decision Aug. 6 against San Francisco with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 2-1 home victory.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster: 2.51 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .234 wOBA, .312 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.9 K% and 82.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 52 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Giants. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.73 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K in 3-2 win at the New York Mets Wednesday.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB in 10 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.79 FIP with a .282 BA, .338 wOBA, .479 xSLG, 16.5 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 85 PA.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because they have a big edge in pitching, there’s “reverse line movement” in Milwaukee’s direction and the Brew Crew is the best road team in the majors.

Burnes has better basic numbers and advanced pitching numbers against San Francisco than Cueto vs. Milwaukee. Also, Burnes grades in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, K%, xSLG, expected wOBA, and chase rate.

Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks higher than San Francisco’s in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and swinging-strike rate.

On top of that, the Brewers batters rank better than the Giants in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.

Lastly, more than 60% of the action is on San Francisco’s money line, but the Brewers’ money line has been moved up from -120 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com). It’s a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+120) needs to be north of +145 for me to take a stab at Milwaukee’s run line because the Giants are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs and have the best home winning percentage in MLB.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as the presumed “sharp” money favors the Under whereas the public is backing the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Under, but a slight majority of the bets placed are with the Over. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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