The San Diego Padres (25-30) wrap up a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (29-27) Thursday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Padres suffered a 2-1 defeat Wednesday after winning the opener 9-4 Tuesday. San Diego has dropped 3 of the past 4 outings and is just 4-9 across its last 13 road contests.
The Marlins have won 4 of the past 5 games and are a solid 10-6 in their last 16 outings dating back to May 14. That solid run has propelled Miami to 3rd place in the NL East, tied with the 2nd-place New York Mets in trailing the division-leading Atlanta Braves by 4 games, despite an ugly minus-45 road differential.
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Padres at Marlins projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Musgrove (2-2, 5.64 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 5-1 road win Friday vs. the New York Yankees
- 2023 road splits: 2-1, 4.24 ERA (17 IP, 8 ER) with a .300 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts
Luzardo (4-3, 3.67 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 61 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-2 road win Friday vs. Los Angeles Angels
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER) with 13 BB, 39 K and a .233 OBA in 6 starts
Padres at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
The MARLINS (+100) are a value play at even money as they look to win the series.
Despite that the Padres are favorites, I prefer Luzardo over Musgrove in the pitching matchup. The Miami southpaw has allowed just 10 earned runs across 35 IP at home while whiffing 39 batters. Musgrove may have a respectable 4.24 ERA across 17 IP in 3 road games, but he has a dismal 7.07 ERA across 3 daytime starts.
The Padres are 2-5 in the past 7 tries in Game 3 of a series while cashing in just 3 of the past 13 contests against winning teams.
The Marlins are 6-1 in the past 7 in Game 3 of a series while cashing in 5 of the past 6 at home, and 6 of the past 8 against right-handed starting pitchers.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you would like a little insurance, and can’t bring yourself to play the home side on the moneyline.
You might want to play a small-unit wager on the alternate line, taking the MARLINS -1.5 (+200) for a chance to double up.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-110) is the play in this getaway day finale.
The Under has been the rule for the Padres lately, going 19-7-1 in the past 27 games on the road, while hitting at a 9-2 clip in the past 11 in Game 3 of a series. The Under is also 6-1 in the past 7 against a left-handed starting pitcher.
The trends aren’t as clear-cut for the Marlins, so go lightly on the Under. The Over is 6-2-1 in the past 9 games at home for Miami, but the Under is 14-5 in the past 19 games against an NL West team.
The Under is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these clubs and 8-3 in their last 11 battles in Miami.
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