Tag: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins odds predictions pick betting line spread

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (66-52) and Miami Marlins (43-75) meet Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series to close out the season series. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: San Diego leads 4-1

San Diego escaped with a 9-8 win in 10 innings on Saturday while covering as a -185 road favorite. DH Luis Arraez had 3 RBIs, including the go-ahead RBI on a groundout. The Padres rallied late after being down 7-3.

The Padres have won 7 straight games while the Marlins have dropped 3 in a row. Miami has allowed 8 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 losses.

Padres at Marlins projected starters

RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Max Meyer

Cease (11-8, 3.40 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 137 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in a 2-0 win at Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday
  • Career vs. Miami: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 1 start

Meyer (2-2, 5.10 ERA) makes his 7th start this season and 9th in his MLB career. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 30 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in an 8-2 loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
  • First time facing Padres

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Padres at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:57 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Marlins +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-120) | Marlins +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

San Diego should pick up the win as a -200 favorite, but the line is set far too heavily to risk betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN PADRES -1.5 (-120).

San Diego is 9-1 in its last 10 games while Miami is only 3-7 over that span. The Padres are also 7-3 in their last 10 overall vs. Miami and 3-0 in the last 3 meetings in Miami. San Diego has only allowed Miami to finish within 1 run in 2 of its last 7 wins vs. the Marlins.

Be aware San Diego has won by only 1 run in 5 of its last 9 wins.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Over has hit in 3 of San Diego’s last 4 on the road and is 6-4 in its last 10 overall. For Miami, the Over is 5-1 in its last 6 home games. The Over is also 2-1 in the last 3 meetings in Miami, but be aware the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 San Diego-Miami matchups overall.

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San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (25-30) wrap up a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (29-27) Thursday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Padres suffered a 2-1 defeat Wednesday after winning the opener 9-4 Tuesday. San Diego has dropped 3 of the past 4 outings and is just 4-9 across its last 13 road contests.

The Marlins have won 4 of the past 5 games and are a solid 10-6 in their last 16 outings dating back to May 14. That solid run has propelled Miami to 3rd place in the NL East, tied with the 2nd-place New York Mets in trailing the division-leading Atlanta Braves by 4 games, despite an ugly minus-45 road differential.

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Padres at Marlins projected starters

RHP Joe Musgrove vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Musgrove (2-2, 5.64 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 5-1 road win Friday vs. the New York Yankees
  • 2023 road splits: 2-1, 4.24 ERA (17 IP, 8 ER) with a .300 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts

Luzardo (4-3, 3.67 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 61 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-2 road win Friday vs. Los Angeles Angels
  • 2023 home splits: 1-1, 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER) with 13 BB, 39 K and a .233 OBA in 6 starts

Padres at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Padres 2

Moneyline

The MARLINS (+100) are a value play at even money as they look to win the series.

Despite that the Padres are favorites, I prefer Luzardo over Musgrove in the pitching matchup. The Miami southpaw has allowed just 10 earned runs across 35 IP at home while whiffing 39 batters. Musgrove may have a respectable 4.24 ERA across 17 IP in 3 road games, but he has a dismal 7.07 ERA across 3 daytime starts.

The Padres are 2-5 in the past 7 tries in Game 3 of a series while cashing in just 3 of the past 13 contests against winning teams.

The Marlins are 6-1 in the past 7 in Game 3 of a series while cashing in 5 of the past 6 at home, and 6 of the past 8 against right-handed starting pitchers.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you would like a little insurance, and can’t bring yourself to play the home side on the moneyline.

You might want to play a small-unit wager on the alternate line, taking the MARLINS -1.5 (+200) for a chance to double up.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-110) is the play in this getaway day finale.

The Under has been the rule for the Padres lately, going 19-7-1 in the past 27 games on the road, while hitting at a 9-2 clip in the past 11 in Game 3 of a series. The Under is also 6-1 in the past 7 against a left-handed starting pitcher.

The trends aren’t as clear-cut for the Marlins, so go lightly on the Under. The Over is 6-2-1 in the past 9 games at home for Miami, but the Under is 14-5 in the past 19 games against an NL West team.

The Under is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these clubs and 8-3 in their last 11 battles in Miami.

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San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (50-65) host the San Diego Padres (65-52) Monday for their 3-game series opener at loanDepot park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: San Diego leads 3-1

San Diego has won 4 of its last 5 games, which includes 2 straight series victories at home vs. the San Francisco Giants and at the Washington Nationals last weekend.

Miami is 2-8 in the past 10 games and was just swept in a 4-game home series with the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins have lost 5 straight series.

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Padres at Marlins projected starters

RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara 

Musgrove is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 127 IP across 20 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 7-4 home win vs. the Giants Tuesday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: 1 start, a no-decision in San Diego’s 3-2 home win May 8 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K

Alcantara is 10-5 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 166 IP over 23 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 4-3 Wednesday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 7 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: 1 start, a 3-2 loss in San Diego May 6 with 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K

Padres at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Marlins +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Padres at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Marlins 2

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the PADRES (-145) instead of betting to win 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number.

San Diego’s ML has been steamed from a -115 opener up to the current number per Pregame.com despite facing the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young award (Alcantara).

But, Musgrove appeared in his 1st All-Star game this summer and just got a big, new extension. In fact, Musgrove’s xFIP is nearly the same as Alcantara’s (3.38-3.37). Furthermore, Musgrove has a better exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, BB%, chase rate and whiff rate than Alcantara, according to Statcast.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the PADRES (-145) to earn a $68.97 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Padres -1.5 (+125) because they are 4-1 RL as road favorites with Musgrove on the bump and the Marlins +1.5 (-155) are just 8-15 RL as home underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-115) because 3 of the first 4 Padres-Marlins meetings this season went Under Monday’s total and Miami is 8-14 O/U in Alcantara starts.

My hesitation with the UNDER 6.5 (-115) is due to this sharp total and San Diego’s 12-8 O/U record when Musgrove is on the mound.

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San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (58-42) and Miami Marlins (41-57) play the third game of a four-game set Saturday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Ryan Weathers is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 4-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 58 2/3 innings across 11 starts and 6 relief appearances.

Weathers last appeared July 11 in a start against the Colorado Rockies when he allowed two hits and a walk in two scoreless innings.

As of this publishing, the Marlins have not announced their starter in what is expected to be a “bullpen game.” LHP Braxton Garrett is a possibility. He is 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 3 starts and 1 bullpen outing.

Garrett last pitched Sunday, going 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision of a Marlins’ 7-4 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies. The southpaw yielded three runs, two earned, on seven hits and three walks with two strikeouts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Off the board
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Padres 6, Marlins 4

Money line (ML)

The PADRES (-135) are the play with the Marlins using a spot starter and treating Saturday as a bullpen game.

The Padres, who are on a three-game win streak and are 5-2 since the All-Star break, are the much better team. They took the first two games of this series, winning 3-2 Thursday and 5-2 Friday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with the line off the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-105) is the lean here. The Under is 4-0 in the past four for the Padres, and 3-0-1 in the past four for the Marlins. With a pair of shaky starting pitchers, expect a little more offense than there was in the first two games of this series.

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San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (57-42) and Miami Marlins (41-56) continue their four-game series at loanDepot park Thursday. Game 2’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego held off Miami to win the series opener 3-2 as Padres starting LHP Blake Snell pitched six innings, allowing one earned run on three hits and three walks with eight strikeouts.

Season series: Padres lead 1-0.

RHP Joe Musgrove is on the rubber for the Padres. Musgrove is 5-7 with a 3.14 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 over 18 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K Sunday in San Diego’s 8-7 loss at the Washington Nationals.
  • 2021 road splits: 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (46 IP, 18 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB rate in eight starts and one relief appearance.

RHP Zach Thompson takes the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA (28 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over six starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER (2 R), 2 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Miami’s 4-2 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
  • 2021 home splits: 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 2 BB and 17 K in two starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PADRES (-165) because there’s been heavy “sharp” action on San Diego and Miami’s lineup has been awful against right-handed pitching this season.

The Padres opened up as roughly a -130 favorite before the market steamed San Diego all the way up to the current price.

However, part of my “lean” on this game is the Padres being one of the few MLB teams that could get “public” money because of their star power.

Furthermore, the Marlins are in the bottom 10 vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics, including wOBA, wRC+, OPS, BB/K rate and hard-contact rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I only “lean” to San Diego winning this game outright and am not willing to lay it with the Padres -1.5 (+100) because they are just 15-19 ATS as road favorites this season and Miami is 12-7 ATS as a home dog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager as another “follow the money” play since the market has bet the Padres-Marlins total down from the 8-run opener to the current number.

Thompson has pitched well in Miami so far in his rookie season and Musgrove’s pitching results have been pretty static regardless of where he’s pitching.

I prefer San Diego’s money line more than the Under in this spot because the Padres are 5-1 O/U in Musgrove’s last six starts.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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