San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves odds predictions pick betting line spread

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (24-24) and Atlanta Braves (26-16) meet Sunday in the 1st game of a doubleheader and the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 12:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: San Diego leads 2-0

San Diego routed Atlanta 9-1 on Sunday while covering as a +109 road underdog. RHP Yu Darvish was credited with the win (7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K). The Padres have won their 3 road games.

The Braves have lost 3 consecutive games and have allowed at least 7 runs in 2 of those 3 losses. RHP Bryce Elder came away with the loss Sunday (3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 3 K).

Game 2 will be played at 6:20 p.m. ET.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Cease (5-3, 2.45 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 55 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 6-3 loss vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
Career vs. Atlanta: 1-0, 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1 start

Lopez (2-1, 1.34 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 2-0 win vs. Chicago Cubs last Monday
Career vs. San Diego: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 relief appearance

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Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:36 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 3, Braves 2

Moneyline

BET PADRES (+105).

San Diego has won its last 3 road games and Atlanta has lost its last 3 home games. The Padres have also won 3 consecutive matchups vs. Atlanta and are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Be aware that there is always a risk associated with betting against a team as good as Atlanta (-125), no matter how cold they are.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

While I fully expect the Padres +1.5 (-200) to cover here as underdogs, the line is far too risky. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-110).

The Under has hit in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 home games and is 9-1 in Atlanta’s last 10 overall. For San Diego the Under is 6-4 in its last 10 games. The Under has also hit in 2 of the last 3 San Diego-Atlanta meeting and is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta.

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

Saturday’s game between the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves was postponed by rain and lightning in Atlanta. The game has been added as part of a doubleheader Monday, and the scheduled starters will instead pitch Sunday. The column below was originally published Saturday and has been updated to reflect Sunday’s meeting.

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The San Diego Padres (23-24) and Atlanta Braves (26-15) play the 2nd game of a 4-game series at Truist Park Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 1-0

The Padres won 3-1 as +191 road underdogs in the series opener Friday as the Under (8) hit. RHP Matt Waldron allowed 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks with a career-high 10 K’s in 5 2/3 innings.

Braves 1B Matt Olson had a 2-for-4 outing with an RBI. Atlanta has lost back-to-back home games for the 1st time this season.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Darvish (3-1, 2.43 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday
Career vs. Braves: 1-4, 5.30 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.51 WHIP in 7 starts — hasn’t faced them since 2022

Elder (1-1, 4.79 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 20 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-3 loss at New York Mets Sunday
Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 4.15 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 2-1 road loss April 17, 2022

Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

The BRAVES (-120) should bounce back after dropping back-to-back home games for the 1st time this season. Darvish has pitched well this year but has struggled against Atlanta in his career, and Elder has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 3 of 4 starts.

BET BRAVES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves have scored just 1 run in each of their last 2 outings. Also, laying -190 for a run of insurance is a losing proposition long term.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

Neither offense should be trusted to significantly help this Over hit. The Padres have scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9 games, and the Braves have put up 4 or fewer in 17 of their last 22.

BET UNDER 9 (-120).

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (22-24) take on the Atlanta Braves (26-14) Friday in the opener of a 4-game set at Truist Park at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won 4-3 last year

The Padres were swept at home by the Colorado Rockies earlier this week and have dropped 6 of 10. They were shut out 8-0 Wednesday by a team with the worst ERA (5.03) in baseball. Padres 3B Manny Machado continues to struggle, hitting .222 with 5 homers, and SS Xander Bogaerts is hitting just .213.

The Braves are coming off a 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs Wednesday. They are still 6-2 over their last 8 games. They tossed shutouts in half of those wins. Speaking of shutouts, LHP Max Fried takes the hill Friday, and he didn’t allow an ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, which spanned 22 IP.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Matt Waldron vs. LHP Max Fried

Waldron (1-5, 5.49 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 39 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K Saturday against Los Angeles Dodgers
Has never faced Atlanta before
2024 road stats: 1-1, 4.19 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 4 starts

Fried (3-1, 3.57 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 5 K Saturday against New York Mets
Career vs. Padres: 3-0, 1.67 ERA (27 IP, 5 ER), 0.81 WHIP, 21 K in 4 starts

Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:17 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-110) | Braves -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Padres 2

Moneyline

The Padres are struggling to score runs, and Fried isn’t interested in helping hitters snap slumps.

There’s no play here with Atlanta priced out of range, but MAX FRIED OVER 4.5 K’S (-150) is ripe for the picking. He has 5+ K’s in 4 straight starts.

Run line/Against the spread

Atlanta’s 6 wins over its last 10 games were all by 2+ runs. The Braves are tied for 6th in MLB with 4.8 R/game. The BRAVES -1.5 (-110) is priced fairly enough to take.

Over/Under

Rain is in the forecast for much of the evening with a 6-mph wind coming in from left-center. I was feeling the Under before that bit of information, but with rain comes bigger strike zones in an attempt to get the game in.

Take the UNDER 8 (-105).

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (4-4) and Atlanta Braves (6-2) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Padres won the 2nd game of the series 5-4 as -104 favorites Friday. SS Xander Bogaerts drove in the game-winning run with a single in the top of the 6th inning.

The Braves were on a 4-game win streak before Friday’s loss. Last season’s NL Rookie of the Year OF Michael Harris II (back) has been placed on the 10-day IL after banging his back on the outfield wall in Atlanta’s 7-6 series-opening win Thursday.

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Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wacha (1-0, 6.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 2 K in 6 IP in his debut vs. the Colorado Rockies last Saturday.

Went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 127 1/3 IP across 23 starts for the Boston Red Sox in 2022.
Career vs. Atlanta: 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 19 ER) in 6 starts and 2 relief appearances.

Morton (1-0, 5.06 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 1 K in 5 1/3 IP in his debut at the St. Louis Cardinals Monday.

Posted a 9-6 record with a 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 172 IP across 31 starts in 2022.
Career vs. the Padres: 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA (67 IP, 19 ER) in 11 starts.

Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 5

Moneyline

BET BRAVES (-155).

Atlanta should bounce back after losing Friday for the 1st time in 5 games and Morton has had much more success in his career vs. the Padres than Wacha has had against the Braves.

Atlanta is a tough place to go and win consecutive road games since the Braves have won 44 of their last 58 at Truist Park. The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 road games and should let down after escaping with the close win Friday.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Four of the last 6 meetings between these teams was decided by 1 run. San Diego +1.5 (-150) should hit, but the Atlanta moneyline is the safer play. Bet the Atlanta moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (-115).

The Over has hit in San Diego’s last 7 games vs. right-handed starters and is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last 8 after a loss. These teams have played high-scoring games vs. each other lately, with the Over hitting in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and Saturday’s matchup should be another offensive showcase.

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (3-4) and Atlanta Braves (6-1) play the 2nd game of a 4-game series Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0

Atlanta took Thursday’s opener 7-6 on SS Orlando Arcia’s walk-off RBI single in the 9th. The Padres led 6-4 after the top of the 8th, but the Braves scored 2 in the bottom half of the inning and won it in the 9th.

San Diego OF Juan Soto’s slow start continued as he went 0 for 4, dropping his early batting average to .160. The Padres big hit was a 3-run homer from DH Matt Carpenter in the 4th.

Atlanta knocked San Diego LHP Blake Snell (3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K) out of the game in the 4th inning, but the Braves bullpen gave up 3 runs to put them in a vulnerable spot. Batting in the 9 spot, Arcia finished 3 for 4 with a homer, double and the winning RBI single. He’s batting .370 and has been a big reason why Atlanta is off to a 6-1 start.

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Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Nick Martinez vs. LHP Jared Shuster

Martinez (0-1, 5.14 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season. He allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 5 K’s across 7 innings in his 1st start, a 4-1 home loss to the Colorado Rockies March 31.

Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 5.14 ERA (7 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Last season vs. Braves: L, 5 IP, 7 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 3 K in 5-2 home loss April 16
Current Braves are batting .308 with a .457 wOBA in 42 plate appearances against Martinez

The rookie Shuster (0-1, 7.71 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks with just 1 K in 4 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss at the Washington Nationals Sunday.

His 4-seam fastball averaged 90.1 mph in his 1st career start. He threw it 43% of the time, followed by a changeup at 32% and a slider at 25%.
Current Padres are hitting .181 with 3 HR and 6 RBIs in 72 at-bats against left-handed pitchers

Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:24 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

The Padres almost got it done Thursday, and I believe they’ll solve the rookie lefty Friday. The key will be keeping Atlanta off the board early as the Braves have been scoring early during their opening 6-1 streak. Atlanta’s bullpen is also taxed and showed vulnerability Thursday. If the Braves don’t get length from the rookie, the same holes will show Friday.

TAKE THE PADRES (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

I’m going to steer clear of the run line with such unpredictable starters on the mound. Instead, I’ll side with the PADRES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105) with their veteran starter on the mound. Only risk a HALF UNIT here because Atlanta has been mashing early in games.

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Over/Under

I’m going with a contrarian pick here because 90% of the tickets are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. The forecast calls for a cool 58 degrees with a 50% chance of rain in Atlanta. There’s an expected sharp 15% breeze going directly to the right-field foul pole as well. Conditions like these neutralize a bloated Over line because of 2 so-so starters. The Under is 4-0-1 in Martinez’s last 5 starts against teams above .500.

Slight LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-110).

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (3-3) and Atlanta Braves (5-1) open a 4-game series Thursday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting this season. Padres won the series 4-3 in 2022.

San Diego comes to “Hotlanta” in search of its groove after splitting a 4-game series with the Colorado Rockies and a 2-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Newly acquired SS Xander Bogaerts has opened the season impressively as he’s 2nd in the majors with 21 total bases while hitting .409 with 3 homers, 7 RBIs and 3 doubles.

Atlanta was a force to be reckoned with in its 3-game sweep at the St. Louis Cardinals to open the week. OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (.370), C Travis d’Arnaud (.385), 1B Matt Olson (.308), SS Orlando Arcia (.304) and 2B Ozzie Albies (.304) are all raking above .300 after the 1st week.

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Padres at Braves projected starters

LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Snell (0-1, 6.23 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB with 9 K across 4 1/2 IP in his debut against the Rockies last Thursday.

Has only faced Atlanta once in his career (in 2018 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays).
Was a better road pitcher with a 3.06 ERA against a 3.56 home ERA last year.

Strider (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He pitched 6-scoreless innings with 3 H and 3 BB with 9 K at the Washington Nationals Saturday.

He had 2 relief outings against San Diego last year and allowed 2 ER on 2 H and 3 BB while fanning 5 in 4 2/3 IP.
Was unhittable at home in 16 games (10 starts) last year: 6-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 14.5 K/9.

Padres at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Padres 2

Moneyline

The Braves (-165) came into St. Louis and punched the Cardinals in the mouth early in every game. They’re raking on another level right now, and I look for them to take advantage of Snell’s early season struggles. However, I’m going to PASS on the moneyline and look to the run line for a better value.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves have won all 5 of their games by multiple runs and all 3 of San Diego’s losses have been by multiple runs. Toss in the Braves’ ace on the hill, and I like their prospects for a multi-run win.

Take the BRAVES -1.5 (+120) for a solid return at home.

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Over/Under

Let me preface this by stating this could go either way. The Braves could tattoo Snell, or it could be the 5-2 game I’m projecting.

I’m LEANING UNDER 8 (+100) because both teams had to travel. It’s a big ballpark, and I feel like the total is inflated due to the teams’ hot bats, which will cool off. I’ll also take AUSTIN RILEY OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+125). He hit .329 with 11 homers, 25 RBIs and 14 doubles in 149 at-bats against lefties last year.

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the San Diego Padres (20-12) Friday for the start of their 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is 6-4 overall in the last 10 but lost 2 of its previous 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs Monday-Wednesday.

Atlanta is 5-5 in the last 10 games and split its previous three series with the New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

Season series: Tied 2-2, but San Diego has outscored Atlanta 18-12 in those meetings.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Max Fried

Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 33 1/3 IP over 6 starts.

Beat the Miami Marlins 3-2 May 6 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
Won vs. the Braves 2-1 April 17 with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.00 FIP with a .197 expected batting average (xBA), .270 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 34.7 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 101 plate appearances (PA).

Fried is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP across 6 starts.

Won vs. the Brewers 3-2 Saturday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
2021 vs. the Padres: Won 4-0 on a CG shutout with 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.11 FIP with a .233/.270/.350 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 23.8 K% and 90.4 mph EV in 42 PA.

Padres at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Padres +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+133)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-170) for a two-thirds unit because it’s a little expensive vs. a Padres (+135) team I’m high on. But, Atlanta has the edge in the starting and relief pitching matchup.

Fried grades in the 92nd percentile or better in EV, chase rate and BB% (according to Statcast) and has dominated San Diego’s lineup in their two meetings. Darvish’s stuff isn’t as nasty in 2022. His current contact, outside-the-zone contact and swinging-strike rates are career-worsts.

Also, Atlanta’s bullpen is much stronger than San Diego’s. The Braves’ relievers are better by ERA, xFIP, K/BB rate, home runs allowed per 9 innings and hard-hit rate.

It’s expensive – so I wouldn’t hit it for a full unit, but the BRAVES (-170) are the right side.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering Atlanta is just 29-62 RL as home favorites since the beginning of 2021. Darvish beat the Braves in a 1-run game earlier this season, and betting Atlanta as a home favorite has a terrible return on investment.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN OVER 7.5 (+110) because there could be value in fading an obvious Under-play with two “top-of-the-rotation” starters on the hill.

Also, both starters pitched to the Under in their previous Padres-Braves outing so it zagging on that recency bias might be a sharp play.

However, Atlanta’s ML is my favorite play in this wager – so I wouldn’t go heavy on the OVER 7.5 (+110).

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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (55-41) visit the Atlanta Braves (45-47) Monday at Truist Park for the opener of their three-game series with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego whaled on the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital over the weekend, outscoring them 41-20 as the Padres took two of three games in the series.

Atlanta dropped two of three when hosting the Tampa Bay Rays this past weekend. Despite a losing record, the Braves are just 4 games back of the New York Mets for first place in the NL East.

Season series: Tied 0-0

RHP Yu Darvish makes his 19th start for the Padres. He is 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA (105 IP, 36 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 9-8 win July 8 against the Washington Nationals with 3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 0 BB and 2 K.
vs. Braves on the current roster: 80 at-bats with a .213/.312/.375 slash line, 29/12 K/BB, 2 HR and 7 RBIs.

LHP Kyle Muller is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 3.45 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 8 BB and 20 K through three starts and one relief appearance. This is the 23-year-old’s rookie season.

Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K July 3 against the Miami Marlins.

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Padres at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-105) | Braves +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Padres 7, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PADRES (-165) for a half unit because I think Darvish rights the ship after struggling prior to the All-Star break and the red-hot Padres lineup drills the young Braves starter and/or the mediocre Atlanta bullpen.

San Diego’s lineup is locked in at the moment, ranking in the top-10 in most advanced hitting metrics such as WAR, wRC+ and wOBA this month. The Padres are also 16-7 vs. left-handed starters this season.

Additionally, Atlanta’s lineup is without several key hitters including All-Star OF Ronald Acuna Jr., who suffered a season-ending torn ACL before the break.

Lastly, San Diego is 14-4 this season in Darvish starts and if he can turn a close game over to his relievers then I have faith the Padres bats will do damage against an Atlanta bullpen ranked 22nd in xFIP and K-BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (-105) for a half unit only because I would play either San Diego’s money line or the run line and not both.

My preference is to play it safe and risk a half unit on San Diego’s money line because the Padres are just 15-16 ATS as home favorites and Darvish allowed 10 earned runs and three homers in his last two starts.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 9 (-105) since San Diego is 12-6 O/U in games Darvish starts and the Padres have played to the Over in their last eight games against NL East teams.

However, there isn’t a lot of margin between my projected score and BetMGM‘s total so I’ll just stay away.

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