Tag: San Diego Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres visit National League West co-tenant Arizona Diamonbacks at Chase Field on Opening Day Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres beat the D-Backs in last season’s series 11-8 and outscored them 89-86. San Diego was 4-5 in Arizona.

San Diego had a disappointing 2021 with a 79-83 overall record and missing the postseason despite lofty preseason expectations. The Padres collapsed after the All-Star break, going 26-43 in the second half of the season.

Arizona finished in the basement of the NL West at 52-110, 22.5 games behind the fourth-place Colorado Rockies.

Padres at Diamondbacks: Projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner 

Darvish gets the Opening Day nod for the Padres. He was 8-11 last season with a 4.22 ERA (116 1/3 IP, 78 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

  • 2021 vs. D-Backs: 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA (23 IP, 17 ER), 32 H, 32 K and 4 BB in 5 starts.
  • vs. D-Backs on the current roster: 3.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .384 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.8 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 114 plate appearances (PA).

Bumgarner is Arizona’s Opening Day starter. He was 7-10 in 2021 with a 4.67 ERA (146 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

  • 2021 vs. Padres: 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 22 H, 17 K and 4 BB in 3 starts.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 6.09 FIP with a .233 BA, .339 wOBA, .545 xSLG, 22.5 K% and 90.9 mph EV in 191 PA.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:31 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Padres at Diamondbacks prediction and picks

Prediction

Padres 7, Diamondbacks 4

Money line

LEAN PADRES (-140) because there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards Arizona, Darvish is a bit of a wild-card entering 2022 and the Over is my favorite wager in this game.

According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the action is on the Padres but they’ve been lowered from a -150 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. RLM is a red flag because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmmm.

Also, after the MLB enacted a sticky substance policy on June 21, 2021, Darvish finished 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 53) and allowed 2.2 home runs per 9 innings.

However, I’m expecting a bounce-back year from both Darvish and the Padres. Darvish most likely spent all offseason working on his pitching mechanics in a post-sticky substance MLB. Also, San Diego has far too much talent to repeat 2021’s atrocious performance.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I wouldn’t bet the D-backs +1.5 (-140) to cover and San Diego’s ML. For what it’s worth, the Padres were 21-28 RL as road favorites last season and 33-43 RL in division games. While the D-backs were also 33-43 RL versus NL West foes and 31-32 RL as home underdogs.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 9.5 (-130) since it appears to be the sharp side of the market hence the heavier juice.

Furthermore, there’s a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the total market for Padres-Diamondbacks with nearly two-thirds of the money on the Over but a slight majority of the market being on the Under at the time of publishing, per Pregame.com.

More importantly, we don’t know what form we’ll see out of Darvish and Bumgarner’s stuff has declined since his championship years with the San Francisco Giants.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (78-80) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 13-10.

Season series: Dodgers lead 11-7.

RHP Vince Velasquez is on the rubber for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 20 starts and four relief appearances for San Diego and the Philadelphia Phillies this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 10-8 home loss to the Atlanta Braves Saturday with a stat line of 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.48 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .293 wOBA, .376 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 89.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 77 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (51 IP, 17 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over 12 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K Friday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 2.21 FIP with a .265 BA, .288 wOBA, .372 xSLG, 19.4 K% and 84.6 mph EV in 36 PA.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:16 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Dodgers 7, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-250) are a little pricier than I’d like in this spot and there’s a “line freeze” as roughly 85% of the action is on L.A. However, the line hasn’t budged since the opener (according to Pregame.com).

Perhaps the sportsbooks feel as though their pricing for this game is dead on and are willing to take on more Dodgers bets. This is worrisome because the “House” ought to be making L.A. cheaper considering the one-way betting action.

Either way, I’ll PASS on laying more than two-to-one with the Dodgers.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-115) because the Padres have essentially folded on their season. This is a fair price for L.A.’s run line and San Diego has lost 10 of its last 11 games.

Velasquez is only getting starts for the Padres because of their mass injury issues to the pitching staff and the bullpen has been terrible this month. In September, San Diego’s bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and home run per nine-inning rate and the eighth-worst hard-hit rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) for a small wager because this is both a “sharp” and “public” play. All the pro-Over money has steamed the total up from the 9-run opener to the current price.

The rationale is fairly obvious. Both teams are sending out starters that have below-average stuff, each lineup is stacked with power hitters and San Diego’s bullpen has been getting raked this month.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (78-78) meet the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-56) Tuesday for the start of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego’s collapse out of playoff contention is complete after officially being eliminated and winning just 9 of its last 30 games. The Padres enter Tuesday on a three-game losing skid and have won just once in the last nine games.

L.A. has won seven of its last 10 games and trails the San Francisco Giants by 2 games for first place in the NL West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Season series:  Dodgers lead 9-7.

RHP Yu Darvish makes his 30th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with a 4.21 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K in San Diego’s 7-6 home win over the Giants Thursday.
  • Darvish is 2-2 against L.A. this season with a 2.42 ERA (26 IP, 7 ER), 0.73 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .163 batting average (BA), .249 wOBA, .306 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.6 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 149 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 14-4 with a 2.58 ERA (195 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 31 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 10-5 loss at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
  • Buehler is 1-0 in four starts against San Diego this season with a 2.03 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.73 FIP with a .194 BA, .253 wOBA, .446 xSLG, 27.1 K% and 89.8 mph EV in 170 PA.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:00 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-140) | Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Dodgers 5, Padres 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS (-190) for a half unit since Buehler’s effectiveness has tailed off a bit in September.

For instance, this month is Buehler’s worst by winning percentage, WHIP, K/BB and ERA. In fact, Buehler’s ERA in September is 7.32.

That said, Darvish’s struggles have coincided with San Diego’s decline and MLB’s pitching substance policy that went into effect June 21. Since then, Darvish is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA, a .798 opponent’s OPS and has allowed 19 home runs in 15 starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager because L.A. still has the edge in starting pitching, and the difference between each ball clubs’ bullpen this month is staggering.

In September, San Diego’s bullpen ranks 23rd in xFIP, 21st in home run per nine-inning rate and 24th in ERA. While L.A.’s bullpen has the best ERA in the majors and the eighth-best home run per nine-inning rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-107) because of “sharp line movement” heading south of the total, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Padres-Dodgers total down from the 8-run opener.

However, since we are arriving to the party a little late, and I don’t have a strong enough handicap on the total in this contest – I’ll stay away.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (78-76) host the Atlanta Braves (81-72) Saturday for the second of their three-game series at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Technically, these teams split a doubleheader Friday, but the first game was a makeup for a July 21st meeting that was suspended due to weather in the bottom of the 5th.

San Diego won the makeup game 6-5 then Atlanta took the second game 4-0 behind a complete-game shutout from starting LHP Max Fried.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is Atlanta’s projected starter. Ynoa is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Atlanta’s 11-4 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in seven starts and one bullpen outing.

RHP Vince Velasquez takes the hill for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.23 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 60 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 19 starts and four relief appearances for the Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-6, with 1 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB and 2 K Wednesday vs. the San Francisco Giants.
  • Velasquez is 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season with an 8.22 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.19 FIP with a .289 batting average, .396 wOBA, .386 expected slugging percentage, 28.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity in 145 plate appearances.

Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Padres +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

I’ll take the bait and BET the BRAVES (-120) for 1 unit despite the suspicious “reverse line movement”. According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the cash and 80% of the action is on the Braves, but oddsmakers have made Atlanta’s money line cheaper despite the one-way action.

Typically, I’d avoid falling into this trap, but I’m out on the Padres for the rest of this season. San Diego’s descent out of playoff contention isn’t getting nearly the coverage it deserves.

The Padres have won just 10 of their last 30 games and are 7 games back of the second NL Wild Card seed with eight games left. Also, the Braves are playing better in the three most important phases of baseball: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (+130) for a tiny wager because Atlanta’s money line is a wiser wager. But, the Braves are 25-21 ATS as a road favorite and the Padres are 4-9 ATS as a home underdog.

More importantly, San Diego’s bullpen has regressed heavily this month and ranks in the bottom-10 in advanced pitching stats such as ERA, xFIP, home run per nine-inning rate and hard-hit rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because I’m not a fan of either starting pitcher, but these teams have a combined 16-17 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

Also, the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under, and the public is betting the Over. I don’t want to fade the money and follow the crowd in this spot.

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (80-71) stop by Petco Park Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (77-75). First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves had their four-game win streak broken after a 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday. Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the NL East is 9 and is currently 2 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego snapped a five-game losing skid Thursday with a 7-6 extra-innings victory against the San Francisco Giants. However, the Padres have fallen out of playoff contention as they sit 6 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Max Fried is on the hill for the Braves. Fried is 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA (149 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Second half splits: 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA (77 IP, 17 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Reiss Knehr is San Diego’s projected starter. Knehr is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 13 H, 13 BB and 13 K across two starts and six relief appearances in his rookie season.

Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:19 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BRAVES (-140) for 1 unit because they have something to play for still while the Padres are nearly eliminated from playoff contention.

Fried has been locked in since the All-Star Game and San Diego’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching.  Padres hitters collectively rank 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA vs. lefties.

The percentages are in Atlanta’s favor in this spot as the Braves are 31-14 overall as road favorites and the Padres are 4-8 as home underdogs. Atlanta’s lineup ranks 10th or better in hard-hit rate, wRC+, wOBA and BB/K on the road.

This is both a sharp and public play that has resulted in Atlanta’s money line steamed up from a -131 consensus favorite on the opener to the current number.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves -1.5 (+115) because I certainly think they’ll win by margin in this spot and Atlanta is 24-21 ATS as a road favorite while San Diego is 4-8 ATS as a home underdog.

However, I’m going to stay away because I made my buy-price for Atlanta’s run line +130 vs. San Diego and won’t partake in the Braves -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a small wager even though the sharp side of the market is backing the Under, Fried has been dealing since the beginning of August and the Under cashing in nine of the past 11 Braves-Padres meetings.

The reasons why I “lean” Over in this spot are that San Diego’s bullpen has really struggled in September – Padres relievers are bottom 10 in ERA, xFIP and SIERA this month. Also, the Padres have scored at least 5 runs in the last four games.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (76-75) host the San Francisco Giants (99-53) Thursday for the finale of their three-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco is attempting a series sweep after winning the first two games by a combined score of 14-11.

Season series: Giants lead 9-6.

RHP Logan Webb is San Francisco’s projected starter. Webb is 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 23 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 6-5 win Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • Webb lost 3-2 to San Diego April 30 in his only start against them with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (52 PA): 3.79 FIP with a .340 batting average (BA), .386 wOBA, .356 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Yu Darvish makes his 29th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with 4.13 ERA (157 IP, 72 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K in San Diego’s 3-2 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday.
  • Darvish is 1-1 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 22 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 5.88 FIP with a .231 BA, .342 wOBA, .498 xSLG, 26.4 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Padres -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the GIANTS (-117) for 1 unit because there’s most likely a fallacy in the market that the Padres will prevent an embarrassing four-game sweep against a division rival with San Diego’s No. 1 starter on the hill. Otherwise, I cannot explain why Giants-Padres is priced as a coin-flip Thursday.

Whether San Francisco is evolved into a much better team or San Diego has waived the white flag on the season, there’s a lot more value in backing the Giants here.

San Diego’s bullpen has nearly double the ERA than San Francisco’s bullpen in September, the Giants’ hitters are top three in several advanced hitting metrics this month and Webb is one of the highest-graded starters in the majors.

Furthermore, San Francisco’s money line is both a sharp and public play. More than two-thirds of cash is wagered and nearly 80% of the bets placed are on the Giants, according to pregame.com at the time of writing. This one-way action has steamed San Francisco up from a slight underdog to a slight favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – because the math supports taking a stab at San Francisco’s run line. The Giants are 17-21 ATS as a road favorite (44.7% cover rate) but the implied win probability of 41.7% based on their run line price.

Also, we are getting the same market movement here as the money line market. Oddsmakers have reacted to the pro-Giants money by moving them up from a run line underdog to a favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer San Francisco’s money line than the total in this spot.

However, San Diego is 18-10 O/U when Darvish gets the start, the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 11 Giants-Padres meetings and San Diego’s pitching staff has the second-worst ERA this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (97-53) travel down the coast to start a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (76-73) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 7-6.

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 31st start for the Giants. Gausman is 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA (175 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K Thursday vs. the Padres.
  • Gausman is 2-1 in four starts against San Diego this year with a 2.64 ERA (24 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB.
  • Road splits: 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in 17 starts.

RHP Joe Musgrove is projected to get the nod for the Padres. Musgrove is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 28 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 9-6, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K Wednesday at the Giants.
  • Musgrove is 1-2 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 6.75 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 17 H, 5 BB and 17 K.
  • Home splits: 6-4 with a 2.42 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB in 14 starts.

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:57 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-112) for a tiny unit – if at all – because the Padres’ playoff hopes hang in the balance and Musgrove has been awesome at home this season. However, the Under is my favorite play in this game.

Outside of San Diego’s obvious motivation angle, which is accounted for in the oddsmakers’ pricing, there aren’t many reasons to back the Padres.

The Giants have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and also are motivated to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in their NL West divisional race.

San Diego is just 10-25 overall as an underdog and 3-7 as a home underdog while San Francisco is 24-13 overall as a road favorite.

There has to be value in the GIANTS (-112) at a near coin-flip price since they have the best record in baseball and their ace on the hill Tuesday. It seems that the market is undervaluing San Francisco and overrating San Diego, even in September.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I only “lean” to San Francisco’s money line and don’t like this spot enough to lay it with the Giants -1.5 (+145). On top of that, San Francisco is just 16-21 ATS as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because the Giants are 13-22-2 O/U as road favorites, the Padres are 1-7-2 O/U as home underdogs and San Diego’s lineup has been atrocious this month.

The Padres hitters have the third-lowest WAR and rank 27th in both wOBA and wRC+ in September.

This total is suspiciously low considering how poorly both bullpens have been this month and the Over cashing in eight of the last nine Giants-Padres meetings. Maybe I’m overthinking it but I’m expecting a majority of the market to be on the Over by the time this game starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (75-70) meet the San Francisco Giants (95-51) Thursday at Oracle Park for the finale of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2 but the Padres snapped the Giants’ nine-game win streak by beating them 9-6 Wednesday.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-5.

RHP Pierce Johnson is San Diego’s projected opener for what’s most likely a bullpen day. He is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 across one start and 55 relief appearances.

  • Last five outings: 0-0 (team record is 1-4) with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in appearances against the Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers (twice) and Houston Astros (twice).
  • Johnson has made four relief appearances against the Giants this season with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K over 4 1/3 IP.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (22 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .200 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .302 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.3 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 30th start for the Giants. He is 14-5 with a 2.65 ERA (170 IP, 50 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-5, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
  • Gausman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (19 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 18 K in three starts against the Padres in 2021.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (136 PA): 2.11 FIP with a .252 BA, .274 wOBA, .395 xSLG, 27.9 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-200) even though there’s significant “reverse line movement” (RLM) because they have an edge in the three most important phases of baseball (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered at the time of writing and more than three-fourths of the bets are on the Giants, according to Pregame.com, but their money line has been brought down from the -235 consensus opener.

Typically, I’d be leery of betting into RLM but, perhaps San Francisco opened as too big of a favorite and the market has beaten this game into the proper pricing.

Also, I’d entertain throwing San Francisco’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout because this is such a good spot for the Giants.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because Gausman should at least show up on the NL Cy Young ballot this season and San Diego’s bullpen has been terrible lately.

Over the past two weeks, Padres relievers have the worst WAR, sixth-worst xFIP and fourth-worst HR/9. On top of that, the Giants are 41-22 ATS against NL West foes and 30-23 ATS as home favorites while the Padres are just 29-37 ATS in divisional games.

I’d prefer to lay it with GIANTS -1.5 (+110) than bet San Francisco’s money line outright or parlaying it. My hesitation with betting the Giants -1.5 (+110) heavier is we have the same RLM in the ATS market as well.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under whereas the public is backing the Under.

Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. More importantly, San Diego’s lineup has been the most disappointing in the majors since the All-Star break. That’s mostly due to lofty expectations, partially set by the market but also due to the level of talent San Diego sends to the plate.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (95-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-70) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco has steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-4.

RHP Joe Musgrove is San Diego’s projected starter. Musgrove is 10-9 with a 2.93 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday.
  • Musgrove has lost both starts against San Francisco this season and has an 8.10 ERA (10 IP, 9 ER) with 12 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (96 PA): 2.97 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .297 wOBA, .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 83.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Dominic Leone takes the ball as an opener for San Francisco’s bullpen day. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.41 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in three starts and 43 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 9-1 win over San Diego Monday with 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (36 PA): 4.43 FIP with a .242 BA, .292 wOBA, .464 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+155) | Giants +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-110) for a tiny wager because I have no choice but to bet baseball’s best team if you’re giving me a coin-flip price.

It’s a bit “square” since we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market (more on that below), but oddsmakers are reacting to the public’s action on San Francisco by making the Giants’ money line more expensive.

Musgrove is less effective on the road; he’s got a 4.25 road FIP (2.82 FIP at home), 16.8% K-BB (24.5% K-BB at home) and a lower home run per nine-inning rate in San Diego.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS as much as I’d love some insurance on our San Francisco money line play because the implied win probability of the Giants +1.5 (-190) is 65.52%, but their cover rate as a home underdog is only 58.8% (10-7 ATS).

Since I only “lean” toward San Francisco outright, I am also unwilling to lay it with Giants -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line.

Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” money is backing San Diego’s money line whereas the public is betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, so laying it with the Giants on the alternate line is too risky of a proposition.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit since both sides of the market are betting the Under hence it being way more expensive than the Over.

San Diego’s lineup has been awful lately and San Francisco’s bullpen has been dialed in. Padres hitters rank dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks, while the Giants’ relievers are 6-1 with the best ERA over that span.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-69) meet the San Francisco Giants (94-50) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco clobbered San Diego 9-1 in the series opener Monday as the Giants came out the gate with a 5-run bottom of the first inning and finished with 4 home runs in the game.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 6-4.

RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 5-12 with a 7.04 ERA (94 2/3 IP, 74 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 22 starts for the Padres and Chicago Cubs.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 3 against the Houston Astros.
  • Arrieta lost at San Francisco, 8-5, June 4 while pitching for the Cubs with a stat line of 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (146 PA): 3.23 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Anthony DeSclafani is on the mound for the Giants. He is 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (146 IP, 54 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 27 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 7-4 victory at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • DeSclafani is 0-1 through three starts with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 6 BB and 10 K this season against San Diego.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (129 PA): 5.01 FIP with a .205 BA, .285 wOBA, .426 xSLG, 20.2 K% and 91.6 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Giants 8, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

PASS even though the Giants (-190) are clearly the right side because we’d be getting the worst of the number. San Francisco opened as a -154 consensus market favorite before both sides steamed them up to the current price.

There’s heavy one-sided action in San Francisco’s direction and maybe if this were the NFL or NBA I’d be down to fade such a lopsided market but there’s less recreational money in MLB betting markets and fading the Giants this season would’ve destroyed a gambler’s bankroll.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching and hitting matchup and even San Francisco’s bullpen has pitched better than San Diego’s recently.

The Padres’ relief unit has been a strength for them all season but over the past 14 days, San Diego’s bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP, seventh-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the third-worst WAR.

It’s tough to have any confidence in Arrieta against this awesome San Francisco lineup but the Giants could for sure pad whatever lead they have against the Padres’ struggling bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both sides of the market are barrelling into the OVER 8.5 (-130) hence it being the far pricier side and I’d have to agree that the Over is the right side.

San Diego went Over the total in four of its last five games, San Francisco hit the Over in three straight and the Over cashed in six consecutive Padres-Giants meetings.

Also, San Diego will most likely need its bullpen to step up because Arrieta has a 12.17 ERA over his last seven starts and DeSclafani’s effectiveness has regressed since the All-Star Game. DeSclafani’s ERA, WHIP, home run per nine-inning rate and opponent’s OPS has all been much worse in the second half of the year.

BET OVER 8.5 (-130) for 1 unit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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