The San Diego Padres (78-80) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 13-10.
Season series: Dodgers lead 11-7.
RHP Vince Velasquez is on the rubber for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 20 starts and four relief appearances for San Diego and the Philadelphia Phillies this season.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 10-8 home loss to the Atlanta Braves Saturday with a stat line of 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.48 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .293 wOBA, .376 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 89.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 77 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (51 IP, 17 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over 12 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K Friday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 2.21 FIP with a .265 BA, .288 wOBA, .372 xSLG, 19.4 K% and 84.6 mph EV in 36 PA.
Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Dodgers 7, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
PASS because the Dodgers (-250) are a little pricier than I’d like in this spot and there’s a “line freeze” as roughly 85% of the action is on L.A. However, the line hasn’t budged since the opener (according to Pregame.com).
Perhaps the sportsbooks feel as though their pricing for this game is dead on and are willing to take on more Dodgers bets. This is worrisome because the “House” ought to be making L.A. cheaper considering the one-way betting action.
Either way, I’ll PASS on laying more than two-to-one with the Dodgers.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET DODGERS -1.5 (-115) because the Padres have essentially folded on their season. This is a fair price for L.A.’s run line and San Diego has lost 10 of its last 11 games.
Velasquez is only getting starts for the Padres because of their mass injury issues to the pitching staff and the bullpen has been terrible this month. In September, San Diego’s bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and home run per nine-inning rate and the eighth-worst hard-hit rate.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) for a small wager because this is both a “sharp” and “public” play. All the pro-Over money has steamed the total up from the 9-run opener to the current price.
The rationale is fairly obvious. Both teams are sending out starters that have below-average stuff, each lineup is stacked with power hitters and San Diego’s bullpen has been getting raked this month.
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