Ohio State comes back home to host a Rutgers team that’s having a whale of a season. Here’s a preview, prediction, and odds for the game.
Have you ever seen a season with so much inconsistency as what we are witnessing with this Ohio State basketball team? There are some really, really good wins in there, but also some stinkers in which the team failed to show up.
Now Ohio State hosts a Rutgers team that it’s looking up at in the standings, but one that it really needs to beat at home. The Scarlet Knights have been a far different team on the road, winning just one time at Nebraska, and losing its other five. But they’ve all been close.
A win by the Buckeyes would get them back to just one game under .500, while a loss would probably put this team pretty close to the bubble with time running out before the postseason.
It’s life in the big, bad Big Ten.
Where is Ohio State in the latest USA TODAY NCAA Tournament bracket projections https://t.co/yq6tXFzmcJ
Remember October of 2019? The 2019-2020 college basketball season had not yet begun. Did we know how good the Wisconsin Badgers were going to be? No, especially with Micah Potter being prevented from playing by the stupid NCAA. Did we know how well the Badgers were going to play in their first 10 games? No. This team was a mystery. There were lots of mysteries going into the season.
Yet, if you could reliably count on a few things to happen in Big Ten basketball, where would you start? What prediction, more than anything else in Big Ten basketball, would most likely be true?
If you said, “Rutgers won’t make the NCAA Tournament,” you would have given a perfectly logical answer backed by 29 years of history. It has been 29 years, after all, since the Scarlet Knights last made the NCAA Tournament, in 1991.
Rutgers being mediocre (not necessarily bad, but certainly not good enough to reach the Big Dance in March) has been one of the most constant truths in college basketball for decades, right there with Michigan State and Tom Izzo being very good, at the other end of the spectrum of relevance in the sport.
Rutgers not being good enough, and Michigan State being a top team, were the two most reliable predictions one could make about Big Ten hoops this season. If you said that Northwestern would struggle, that’s fair and will be accepted. If you said Nebraska would struggle in a rebuild under Fred Hoiberg, that’s fair as well.
Rutgers being good has been one of the biggest surprises of the season — not necessarily because the Scarlet Knights weren’t developing their players (there WAS progress last season), but because Rutgers has evolved so rapidly and substantially under new coach Steve Pikiell. Rutgers isn’t a bubble team; Rutgers is, at the moment, a solid NCAA Tournament seed, good enough to wear home whites in round one as a higher-seeded team (No. 8 or better). The Scarlet Knights will have to lose four games in a row to become an uncertain NCAA team, riding the bubble near the cut line. Right now, they have margin for error. They are well inside the ropes.
Pick another Big Ten team entering this season. If you were asked to address Illinois — which lost 21 games last season — it would have been reasonable to say the Illini could not get any worse. They were likely to be better if only because the first two seasons for Brad Underwood were so bad. Yet, that kind of reality does not generally point to an NCAA Tournament.
Surprise! Illinois is also an NCAA Tournament team and would need to slide for the bubble to become an unnerving prospect.
Here is the shocking fact of all facts on Tuesday, January 21, before Big Ten games are played in the conference: If the season ended on Tuesday afternoon, Rutgers and Illinois would be top-four seeds at the 2020 Big Ten Tournament. That’s right: Rutgers and Illinois would get double-byes. You would not see them on the court on Big Ten Tournament Wednesday or Big Ten Tournament Thursday. They would debut on Friday and have great chances to make the tournament semifinals on Saturday and CBS national television.
“Where will Rutgers and Illinois be seeded in the Big Ten Tournament?” That question has probably been asked before, but if so, it has been asked because people want to make sure they don’t have to watch TV (or a game in person) when the Big Ten Tournament begins its five-day run on Wednesday. Right now, that same question is a question with NCAA Tournament implications. If Rutgers and Illinois both get a top-four seed, they won’t have to play nearly as many games before the NCAA Tournament begins. They will get tested by other top Big Ten teams if they can win one game and reach the semifinals. Getting that top-four seed means a lot, as Wisconsin fans know. The Badgers come to the NCAA Tournament relatively rested because they have rarely had to play more than two or three games in the Big Ten Tournament this century. Now, Illinois and Rutgers can derive the same benefit.
Will Rutgers and Illinois get a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament? It is surprising enough that we are even asking this question. It is more surprising how meaningful the question actually is.
We will see how meaningful the question is in a month. The rest of the Big Ten will try to restore order, but in a wacky year, who knows how it will all shake out?
This has been a rough 2019-2020 college basketball season for Wisconsin fans. Part of this rough season has been marked by the absence of Micah Potter — for rubbish reasons not grounded in fairness; thanks, NCAA! — but part of this uneven journey for the Badgers was the product of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. They’re not bad this season! That’s progress.
Before a team can become good, it needs to take the first step of ceasing to be lousy. Rutgers seems to be there. The Scarlet Knights aren’t a finished product. They will have to prove themselves in the cauldron of Big Ten basketball’s cutthroat competition. However, they aren’t a bad team anymore. They socked Seton Hall in non-conference play, and they once again flummoxed Wisconsin in New Jersey. It has been tough for the Badgers to win away from home in Piscataway. Rutgers has been able to protect its home court against UW.
It is one of those annoying realities for Wisconsin fans: Rutgers rarely amounts to anything over the course of the season, but the Scarlet Knights perk up and foil the Badgers when playing UW at home. It would feel better for Wisconsin fans if Rutgers could actually become a good program. Losses wouldn’t sting as much in that case.
This leads us to the obvious challenge facing Rutgers in the 2020s: Make an NCAA Tournament. It has been 29 years since the Scarlet Knights last did so, in 1991 under current TV commentator Bob Wenzel. Rutgers lived a very different existence then, as a member of the Atlantic 10 Conference. The move to the Big Ten has been bad for Rutgers in football, but basketball hasn’t been any better, at least not until now. However, RU coach Steve Pikiell shows signs of lifting the program’s floor. Now, the question becomes, “Can Pikiell raise the Scarlet Knights’ ceiling?”
Pikiell, from this outsider’s perspective, seems to be going about his building plan the right way. Rutgers relies on defense and rebounding to win. That’s how Rutgers beat Wisconsin. Pikiell understands that since recruiting high-end talent will be hard as long as Rutgers doesn’t have an NCAA Tournament bid to proudly tout on the trail, his current teams need to win with effort and hustle. Effort will travel. Effort can hide a lot of limitations. Effort enables a team to win with defense when the offense is struggling. If Rutgers can lean on its defense enough to make an NCAA Tournament in the next few years, the Scarlet Knights can make that national and regional splash. They would then be in position to improve their recruiting and land high-end scorers which could catapult the program to the next level.
Jon Rothstein (you know him; everyone does) is fond of saying, “Steve Pikiell. Pounding Nails.” Rutgers will try to hammer home an NCAA berth in the 2020s and see if that opens the floodgates to a new era of prosperity in New Jersey.
Last week, I wrote about the reality that the Wisconsin Badgers, like the Virginia Cavaliers, were prone to a lot of bad shooting games… and that Wisconsin needed to be MORE like Virginia, not less. My point was not focused on offense, but defense. This gets to the central reality — and need — facing Wisconsin after its latest road loss to Rutgers on Wednesday night.
Wisconsin wasn’t brilliant on offense, but it wasn’t terrible, either. Wisconsin didn’t score in the low 50s. Wisconsin didn’t shoot under 40 percent. The Badgers allowed 72 points, and strangely, they did so even though Rutgers hit just 5 of 19 threes and made only nine free throws. That’s hard to fathom.
The one statistic which decided this game was offensive rebounds. Rutgers gathered 14 of them, Wisconsin only three. THAT is embarrassing. THAT is unacceptable.
Wisconsin wasn’t always precise against Rutgers. The Badgers didn’t get good offensive performances from Nate Reuvers or D’Mitrik Trice, which certainly hurt their cause. They committed 14 turnovers. None of those realities are good. Yet, a Wisconsin team at its best will make 65 points stand up on the road. A Wisconsin team playing to expected standards will turn 48-percent shooting into a Badger victory. Yet, being imprecise, inconsistent, inaccurate, or a combination of the three can all be tolerated if the effort level is there.
The 14-3 offensive rebounding differential showed that the effort WASN’T there for the Badgers. It’s one thing to be outshot or outmaneuvered by a clever game plan. This loss was not the result of shooting or tactics. This game was decided because Rutgers wanted the basketball more than Wisconsin did. Rutgers got more 50-50 balls and scrapped more urgently for every possession. Rutgers earned 63 shot attempts, Wisconsin only 48. That’s why Rutgers could shoot so poorly from 3-point range (26 percent) and make only nine free throws yet still win by seven points.
Talent sometimes wins, and after this game, some commentators remarked that Rutgers has more talent than Wisconsin:
Rutgers pretty clearly has more talent than Wisconsin. That says a lot about Steve Pikiell, but even more about this Wisconsin roster. Just not very talented and won't win much when Reuvers doesn't go off. Badgers fall to 5-5 as RU holds serve at the RAC.
The point about Reuvers needing to be good for Wisconsin to win is well-made and well-taken. Rutgers might actually have more talent, too — I am not necessarily disagreeing with that (I am fundamentally neutral on that question right now). However, let’s get one thing straight: Talent and toughness are not the same thing. They aren’t strongly related.
Teams can lack talent and yet be very tough. Teams can have elite talent and yet be soft as marshmallows. When I wrote that Wisconsin needs to be MORE like bad-shooting Virginia, not less, I meant that the Badgers can always develop more toughness and cultivate better defensive habits. Talent isn’t needed to be tougher and more ferocious. Urgency, intensity, good habits, and competitive pride improve a team’s identity and performance on defense. Skill is needed on offense, but defense can improve through work ethic.
That work ethic was missing against Rutgers, and that is the biggest indictment of both this team and this coaching staff as Wisconsin takes the next week and a half off. See that basketball? Rutgers wanted it more. Wisconsin needs to want it more in every remaining game this season.
The Wisconsin Badgers did not deliver an offensive masterpiece on Wednesday night against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. They still didn’t shoot the three especially well — 8 of 23 — and they missed five of 16 foul shots in a game they lost by seven points. Wisconsin still can’t get to the foul line regularly, either, a continuing sign of the inability of this team to drive the ball hard to the tin and draw shooting fouls. Yes, some of the offensive flaws and limitations seen in previous road/neutral losses are still there. The 14 turnovers — most committed in the game’s first 16 minutes before a much cleaner second half — are unacceptable. Some problems have certainly lingered for UW.
Yet, Wednesday night was a clarifying moment for the Badgers. They didn’t play poorly on offense. Flawed, yes, but hardly the barren box score of previous weeks. They didn’t merit an A-minus, but they also didn’t merit an F, either. A grade of C-plus or B-minus is probably fair for Wisconsin. Scoring 65 points on the road, shooting 48 percent from the field, should normally get it done… but it did not.
If I told you before this game that Kobe King would hit 7 of 12 shots and score 18 points; that Rutgers would hit only 5 of 19 threes; that Wisconsin would outscore Rutgers at the foul line (11-9), earn more free throws (16-13), and commit fewer fouls (17 compared to 19 for RU), you probably would have concluded that Wisconsin would win.
This game removed the idea that the offense is the main thing holding this team back. The idea that Wisconsin can’t shoot well in a building other than the Kohl Center has been demolished. The TEAM didn’t have a bad offensive game; Nate Reuvers and D’Mitrik Trice had bad offensive games.
The issue is bigger than the offense itself, even though the offense still carries notable flaws and hasn’t yet found a formula which will fix them. Wisconsin’s problems run much deeper than the offense; we will explore this in future articles this week at Badgers Wire.
Wisconsin fell to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway on Wednesday night. Here are the top three takeaways from the 72-65 loss.
Wisconsin was handed its fifth loss of the season on Wednesday evening, falling to Rutgers 72-65 in Piscataway. Here are our top three takeaways from the game for the Badgers.
Wisconsin proved they can make shots away from the Kohl Center after all…but they still can’t take care of the ball.
After some abysmal performances outside of Madison this season, the Badgers were finally able to knock down some shots away from home against Rutgers last night, particularly in the first half when they went 40 percent from beyond the arc and 52.4 percent from the floor overall.
Granted, they finished at 34.8 percent from long range and 47.9 overall, and while those aren’t exactly stellar shooting clips, they are notable improvements from where Wisconsin was at in its three-game losing streak at the Legends Classic and against NC State.
Nov 25, 2019; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nate Reuvers (35) reacts against the Richmond Spiders in the second half of the Roman Legends Classic at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Nicole Sweet-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimately, their ability to score effectively on the road was not the reason for the Badgers’ demise in this one. To try to make sense of this loss, a good start would be to look at their persisting issues with taking care of the ball away from the Kohl Center.
After giving up just four turnovers in the win over Indiana last weekend, Wisconsin ultimately ended up coughing up the ball 14 times last night, just off of its season-high 15 against Richmond, including a whopping 12 in the first half that put the Badgers in a hole early. The Scarlet Knights took full advantage of Wisconsin’s carelessness, converting them into 18 points in the first half and 22 for the game.
The Badgers were lucky Rutgers wasn’t as efficient shooting the ball as head coach Steve Pikiell would have liked (26.3 percent from three and 46 percent overall), otherwise, the game had blowout written all over it.
Wisconsin faces the Rutgers in Piscataway on Wednesday evening. Badger fans should be sure to know these three opposing players.
Wisconsin (5-4) will look to reverse its miserable fortunes away from the Kohl Center so far this season when it takes on Rutgers (6-3) in Piscataway on Wednesday evening.
The Badgers were able to snag a win by the skin of their teeth in last year’s matchup between these programs in Madison, taking down the Scarlet Knights 69-64 after trailing by five at halftime.
Wisconsin is coming off of a much-needed blowout victory over Indiana at home last weekend to snap a three-game losing streak, while Rutgers has lost two straight. Most recently, the Scarlet Knights dropped a 77-65 decision in East Lansing to No. 11 Michigan State on Sunday.
When you compare the personnel on these two rosters, there is no question that this is a matchup Wisconsin should come out on top of, even on the road. That being said, the Scarlet Knights have given the Badgers plenty of trouble in the last three meetings between these squads (they actually beat Bucky in 2017-18), and they have the pieces in their rotation to do so again this season.
Here are the three players on the other side who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout tomorrow’s contest.
Harper has stepped into the role of Rutgers’ No. 1 scorer this season now that last year’s leading bucket-getter, Eugene Omoruyi, has transferred to Oregon.
While the sophomore guard/forward’s scoring average is up five points from his freshman season, his value to the Scarlet Knights extends far beyond his ability to knock down shots. The 6-6 Harper has exceptional size for his position and a versatile skill set that helps him make an impact inside and out, on both ends of the court. In addition to leading the team in scoring, he currently ranks second on the team in rebounds and third in blocks and steals.
Dec 3, 2019; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Geo Baker (0) handles the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
A consensus Honorable Mention All-Big Ten pick last year, Baker was head coach Steve Pikiell’s top returning scorer heading into the season, as well as a returning team captain.
While his scoring production is down a bit from a year ago, he’s certainly still served as a go-to player for Rutgers in that department this season, ranking just one point behind Harper for the team lead with an average of 11.8 points per game. Baker is also the team’s top assists man as well as a pesky defender, leading the Scarlet Knights in steals.
The 6-4 guard’s 1.6 steals per game is the No. 4 average in the Big Ten, and he trailed only Josh Reaves of Penn State in that category last season.
Baker is arguably the best player Rutgers will have at its disposal against Wisconsin, but it’s worth noting that his performances against high-major opponents this season have left much to be desired: in the Scarlet Knights’ last two games against Pitt and Michigan State, he combined for just 13 points on 22.2 percent shooting from the field.
Rutgers will probably need a stronger effort than that from Baker to beat the Badgers.
Myles Johnson – Center
2019 stats: 8.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 69.6 FG%
The 6-10, 255-pound Johnson is Rutgers’ enforcer down low, utilizing his 7-7 wingspan to lead the team in blocks and rebounds so far this season. He’s also about as efficient of a scorer near the basket as you will find in the conference, ranking third in two-point shooting percentage.
Johnson is especially solid on the offensive glass, currently sitting at No. 4 in the Big Ten in offensive rebound percentage after trailing just nine other players nationally in that category a season ago.
Nate Reuvers, the Badgers’ leading scorer right now and the only true post player in the rotation with Micah Potter still ineligible, has had some problems on both ends of the floor when matched up with physical big men in the paint throughout Wisconsin’s first nine games. Reuvers’ struggles have often coincided with the team’s as a whole, so how he fares in his matchup with Johnson will be critical to the game’s outcome.
Reflections on the upcoming game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Wisconsin Badgers.
The upcoming basketball game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights marks an occasion in which the brain can logically process a given reality… but the heart, the emotions, need to be married to the brain’s level of awareness.
What do I mean by this? It’s not that complicated — this is something human beings deal with all the time. We have all encountered a life situation in which we know, intellectually, that a given task or moment is important, but we don’t feel the same sense of urgency other people around us might feel. “Yeah, yeah, I know what I have to do,” we might say to a spouse or a sibling who is a lot more emotionally invested in this important moment. Yet, we aren’t as excited (or tense, or focused) as the other person.
Sometimes, this situation leads us to walk into an event less prepared than we thought we were. We might have assumed this task or moment would be easy to handle, but upon immersing ourselves in the event itself, we find ourselves lacking the full amount of resources needed to get the job done properly. We knew this was an important event in our minds, but didn’t put in the actual prep work to make SURE we were ready, and the moment goes badly. Our spouse or sibling or parent or child gets mad at us, and we have to try to do better the next time.
That’s what this Wisconsin-Rutgers game is. The Badgers surely know how important it is to notch a road win, especially in Big Ten play. However, because it’s RUTGERS, the urgency of the occasion might be lacking. Wisconsin has to really invest itself in this game and feel the sense of importance attached to Wednesday night in New Jersey.
If this seems a bit vague and lacking in specificity, here are two precise reasons Wisconsin should take Rutgers seriously, so that the Badgers are on their toes and highly vigilant when tip-off time arrives on Wednesday night:
First, Rutgers beat Wisconsin the last time these teams met in New Jersey. Wisconsin won last season in Madison, but in the 2017-2018 college basketball season, Rutgers ambushed UW in Piscataway. That memory — which Greg Gard was part of — ought to light a fire under some fannies in the Wisconsin locker room and get this team to bust out the gate ROARING at Rutgers.
If that memory from two seasons ago seems a little distant and remote, fine. I will offer an even better reason for UW to take RU seriously: Rutgers gave Michigan State a tough battle on the road this past Sunday. Rutgers went to East Lansing and the Breslin Center, and was right there, down 62-55, with 3:30 left. Rutgers wasn’t likely to win, but it was highly competitive and stayed in the hunt for 37 minutes. Michigan State struggled for much of the game and didn’t land a knockout punch. The Spartans realized that Rutgers was a tenacious team.
As Jon Rothstein said after big Rutgers wins late last season:
The identity of Rutgers is based on toughness and tenacity. If Wisconsin intellectually realizes this game is important, but it doesn’t bring any urgency to the court, the Badgers could get nailed by Steve Pikiell’s players.
Take. Rutgers. Seriously. Let this be a warning to Wisconsin, even though Rutgers hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1991. Wisconsin got burned the last time it went to Piscataway. Vigilance and emotional preparedness need to be part of Wisconsin’s game plan this time around.
A look at the Rutgers Scarlet Knights before their game against the Wisconsin Badgers.
Wednesday night’s basketball game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights is a huge one. Wait a minute.
RUTGERS? HUGE GAME? No, come on now. That’s just a cheap way to get some extra clicks. You don’t really MEAN that, do you?
Actually… yes, I do. This is genuinely a huge game. If you think about it, it’s not that controversial a statement to make, even though any sentence with the words “Rutgers” and “huge game” seems absurd on its face.
First of all, this is a road game. Wisconsin has to win one of these pretty soon. The Badgers need to enter the heart of Big Ten play — on January 3, 2020, at Ohio State — knowing they can play well on the road. This Rutgers game is the last Big Ten road game before that Ohio State contest. This game is the next-to-last road game for Wisconsin before the heart of the Big Ten season. The other road game is on Saturday, Dec. 28, at Tennessee. If Wisconsin plays a poor game against Rutgers, how can the Badgers realistically expect to win in Knoxville? If the Badgers don’t win in Knoxville, how can they expect to win in Columbus several days later?
Second, Wisconsin plays just one game in the next 16 days after this visit to Piscataway, New Jersey. The Badgers host Milwaukee on Dec. 21, then have the Christmas holiday, followed by the Tennessee game a week later on the 28th. Wisconsin won’t have many live-game situations in which to test its responses and instincts. Getting it right on Wednesday against Rutgers gives Greg Gard and his players a chance to realistically say to themselves, “We’re on the right track.” Without a lot of games in the next few weeks, the Badgers need to make this moment count.
Third, the fact that this is Rutgers is precisely what makes this game bigger, not smaller. If Wisconsin was going to Ohio State or Michigan on Wednesday, to play a top-10 team which has been flourishing, the Badgers really wouldn’t have much of a chance. Moreover, Wisconsin could play well against OSU or Michigan right now and still lose. Rutgers, however, is an opponent the Badgers should beat. RU is an opponent the Badgers need to beat, in order to improve their road-neutral record (part of the NCAA Tournament’s “nitty gritty report” and the overall data profile the committee looks at in early March). Rutgers is an opponent Wisconsin — at this stage of its season-long evolution — can beat on the road. It is in many ways the truest measuring stick this team could ask for. A win says this team can grow. A loss would show this team is not yet ready to evolve.
Huge game? Yeah. I think I just laid out a convincing three-point argument… whether you like it or not.
