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A Tale of 2 Halves: Studying Kellen Moore’s halftime adjustments

Kellen Moore sent in 1108 plays in 2019. The Cowboys ran more plays (570) in the first half than they did in the second half (538). In the..

The Dallas Cowboys’ 2019 season came to an inglorious end, as has every season since 1995.

As a result of their lackluster performance in key moments and the team’s ongoing mediocrity, the owner of the franchise has made sweeping changes to the coaching staff. Before things get too focused on the events of the offseason, a look back at the Cowboys offense in 2019 is in order.

The Context

This examination of the Dallas Cowboys play-calling began as a simple question: would the new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, the inexperienced guy being touted as a whiz kid, be any less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan?

Linehan was predictable in the most obvious of ways: he called running plays more than 80% of the time that the quarterback started under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the plays the quarterback was in the shotgun.

This is an ongoing attempt to discern whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play-calling tendencies mentioned above.

Read the stats from each of the 16 games in 2019.

Read the aggregate stats from all 16 games in 2019.

This post will focus on the play-calling in the first half versus the second.

Where these statistics differ from the official game logs, it is because we have included plays nullified by penalties and/or counted sacks and/or scrambles as pass attempts.

Kellen Moore sent in 1108 plays in 2019. The Cowboys ran more plays (570) in the first half than they did in the second half (538).

First Half

It may come as a surprise to some that Moore, even in the first half, used the shotgun so frequently. He had his quarterback, Dak Prescott, in the shotgun for considerably more first-half plays than under center.

Of the 570 plays in the first half, the Cowboys ran 220 plays with Prescott under center. On those 220 plays, Moore called:

147 runs;
19 passing plays;
two runs off play-action;
52 play-action passing plays.

Of the 350 times Prescott was in the shotgun in the first half, Moore called:

73 runs;
226 passing plays;
12 play-action runs;
39 play-action passing plays.

In the first half of games in 2019, Moore called 220 runs, 14 runs off play-action, 245 passes, and 91 passes off play-action (234 runs, 336 passes).

It may shock some people to find out Moore only called runs on 41% of their first-half snaps. There were 10 teams that ran the ball more frequently in the first half than Dallas in 2019.

It is also a bit surprising that Moore only called for play-action on 18.4% of the first-half plays (105 of 570). Prescott used play-action on 27% of his pass attempts (91 of 336).

It is also noteworthy that 36.3% of the runs (85 of 234) came on snaps that the quarterback started in the shotgun.

Moore used the shotgun on just over 61% of the Cowboys first-half plays.

He called a passing play on 75.7% of the first-half plays from the shotgun (265 of 350).

The Cowboys ran the ball on 67.7% of the first-half plays that Prescott was under center (149 of 220).

Moore did an excellent job of avoiding the 80% “Linehan” ratio when Prescott starts under center, but he was less able to distance himself from the 80% line when they used the shotgun.

Second Half

Kellen Moore’s unit was on the field for 538 snaps in the second half of games in 2019. Prescott was under center for 178 of those snaps and in the shotgun for 360.

Of the 178 snaps from under center in the second half, Moore called:

129 runs;
11 passes;
two runs of play-action;
36 passing plays off play-action.

Of the 360 snaps with Prescott in the shotgun, Moore called:

62 runs;
261 passes;
four runs off play-action;
33 passing plays off play-action.

In the second half of games, Moore called 191 runs, six runs off play-action, 272 passing plays, and 69 passing plays based off play-action (197 runs, 341 pass attempts).

Dallas ran the ball on 36.6% of the second-half plays (197 of 538) and tried to pass on 63.3% of the plays (341 of 538).

Moore had Prescott use play-action on just 13.9% of the second half plays (75 of 538), which is 4.6% less than the first half. Prescott utilized play-action on 20.2% of his pass attempts (69 of 341), which is an almost 7% decrease.

Moore continued to call a lot of runs (33.5%) from the shotgun even in the second half.

Moore had Prescott in the shotgun for 67% of the second-half snaps, which is only a 6% increase compared to the first half.

He called a passing play on 81.7% of the second-half snaps from the shotgun (294 of 360), which is also a 6% increase from the first half.

On second-half plays when Prescott was under center, Moore called running plays 74% of the time (131 of 178), which is another 6% increase.

Moore’s play-calling came much closer to the 80% threshold so common under Linehan in the second half of games in 2019.

Conclusions

Moore calls less plays off play-action in the second half, and did a much better job of avoiding the 80% “Linehan tendency” in the first halves of games. He called a higher percentage of running plays when Prescott is under center, and more passing plays when he is the shotgun, in the second half.

The next look at the plays called by Moore in 2019 will compare the games the Cowboys won with the games they lost.

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Kellen Moore called 1,109 plays in 2019, here’s how they broke down

Kellen Moore called 1108 offensive plays in 2019. His quarterback started under center on 400 plays; they used shotgun on 708 plays. He…

The Dallas Cowboys 2019 NFL season ended in disappointment and frustration for the players and fans alike. Big changes are already underway but before the focus completely moves to free agency, the draft, and the rest of the offseason, a look back at the offense in 2019 is in order.

This examination of the Cowboys play calling began as a simple question: would then-new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the guy being touted as a wunderkind, be less predictable than his predecessor, Scott Linehan?

Linehan was predictable in the most pedestrian of ways: he called running plays on more than 80% of the snaps the quarterback took from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the shotgun snaps.

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above. As he’s been retained as OC by new head coach Mike McCarthy and given the play-calling reins once again, taking a look at how he functioned under Jason Garrett will be ground zero for analysis moving forward.

The stats from each of the 16 previous games can be found here.

The Raw Data from all 16 Games in 2019

Moore called for a run 431 times and had Prescott try to complete a pass 677 times. That is sufficient balance (passing on 61.1% of the plays) to avoid being one dimensional, but it isn’t the kind of stubborn run-heavy play-calling that head coach Jason Garrett was often accused of using.

Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles/sacks as passing attempts.

Moore called 1,108 offensive plays in 2019. He had his quarterback, Dak Prescott, take the snap from under center on 400 of those plays. Prescott was in the shotgun for 708 plays.

Moore utilized the shotgun on 63.9% of the Cowboys offensive snaps.

Of the 400 plays Prescott started under center, Moore called:

276 runs;
30 passes;
four play-action runs;
90 play-action passes.

Of the 708 plays that Prescott was in the shotgun, Moore called:

135 runs;
487 passes;
16 play-action runs;
70 play-action passes.

In total, that was 411 runs, 20 play-action runs, 517 passes, and 160 play-action pass attempts.

A few things stand out.

More than 23% of Prescott’s pass attempts came off play-action (160 of 677).

Dallas used play-action almost as much from the shotgun (70) as they did when Prescott was under center (90).

Perhaps because they tried so many play-action passes from the shotgun, Moore called a lot of running plays from the shotgun (151). More than 35% of the Cowboys total rushing attempts (151 of 431) came from the shotgun.

Moore called running plays on 70% of the snaps when the quarterback took the snap from under center (280 runs on 400 plays).

The one area in which Moore can’t seem to escape the predictability of Linehan is how the Cowboys try to move the ball through the air. More than 82% of Prescott’s pass attempts come from the shotgun (557 of 677 pass attempts were from the shotgun). Similarly, when the Cowboys start in the shotgun, Moore sends in a passing play 78.6% of the time (557 pass attempts on 708 shotgun snaps).

One of the things that stands out the most is that Prescott only threw the ball 30 times after dropping back from under center (he also attempted 90 play-action passes from that formation). A fair number of those 30 passes did not even require an actual drop back from center: some of them were quick screens thrown immediately after the snap.

A mere 17.7% of the passing plays called by Moore came when Prescott started under center (120 of 677), with 90 of those pass attempts coming off play-action.

Prescott attempted to execute a three-step, five-step, or seven-step drop on average of less than twice a game in 2019. That basic ratio has been true for every year that Prescott has been in the NFL.

I took a lot of criticism earlier in the year when I suggested Prescott’s inability to take a snap from under center and then drop back and deliver a well-timed and properly-placed pass was a limitation, but it is hard to avoid the fact he only attempted 30 passes all year when dropping back from under center.

After using the shotgun almost exclusively in high school and college, Prescott was very open as a rookie and sophomore about his ongoing effort to take get better at taking snaps from under center. He has improved dramatically.

Despite Dallas’s success using play-action passes, it is hard to conceive of an offensive coordinator who wouldn’t like the ability to call plays based on a traditional three-step, five-step or seven-step drop. It is also hard to believe Moore would only call 30 of these types of plays out of 677 passes if everyone was comfortable Prescott could effectively execute a traditional three, five, or seven-step drop.

Given the length and vagaries of an NFL season, these aggregate numbers should be viewed more of a baseline or starting point than anything too illuminating. The next look at Moore’s play-calling from 2019 will compare his calls in the first half of game to the calls in the second half.

You can follow C. Joseph Wright on Twitter here.

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Kellen Moore shows vintage play-calling in 2019, maybe Dallas finale

Dallas coordinator Moore had one of his best games in relation to the 80% threshold associated with Linehan’s predictability. Dallas ran…

The Dallas Cowboys trounced the Washington Redskins 47-16 to finish the 2019 season at a mediocre 8-8. The offense secured a lead in the first quarter and never relinquished it.

The game plan and play calling against Washington was vintage Kellen Moore. The offensive coordinator for the Cowboys called a game similar in many ways to the majority of his previous victories. Moore’s game plans, when they work, feature relative balance between shotgun and traditional snaps (balance in this context means having at least 30% of the snaps from under center not necessarily 50/50) and a balanced run/pass ratio (balance in this context means throwing less than 70%) and then using play-action.

The Context

This weekly examination of the Cowboys play calling began as a simple question: would Moore, the guy touted as having a great football mind, be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan?

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above.

You can read the stats from all the previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 17 versus the Washington Redskins

Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles by the quarterback as passing attempts.

The most snaps the Cowboys have run on offense this year was the 75 in Week 13 against Buffalo.

Dallas ran 74 offensive plays against Washington. Quarterback Dak Prescott was under center for 33 of those plays (44.5%) and in the shotgun for 41 plays (55.4%).

Moore called 35 running plays, 27 pass attempts, one designed run by the quarterback off play-action, and 11 pass attempts off play-action.

First half snaps under center

The Dallas offense ran 40 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 13 of those plays.

Of the 13 snaps from under center in the first half:

ten were runs;
three were play-action pass attempts.

First half snaps from shotgun

Prescott was in the shotgun for 27 snaps in the first half. Moore called:

six runs;
19 passes;
two play-action pass attempts.

In the first half, Moore called 16 runs and 24 passes.

This type of balanced play calling in the first half is typical of Moore this year. He called runs on 40% of the snaps, and Prescott was in the shotgun less than 70% of the time (67.5%).

In terms of the predictability discussed above, Moore called runs less than 80% of the under center snaps (76%), and he called less than 80% passes from the shotgun (77.7%).

Moore had Prescott use play-action on more than 20% of the first-half passing attempts (5 of 24).

The thing that stands out the most about the Cowboys first half is the success they had on first down, particularly when they ran the ball. Dallas averaged 4.4 yards a carry on first down. They had 10 carries for 44 yards. Although two of those carries were negated by penalty, so officially, they had eight runs on first down for 36 yards (4.5 yards per carry).

This has really been the story for Kellen Moore all year long: when the Cowboys can run the ball successfully on first down, they tend to score points, and then Moore can stay balanced and unpredictable, and they win.

Moore’s play calling has been excellent in games that Dallas can run the ball efficiently. It is when they can’t run the ball, especially on first down, that his offense has struggled.

Second half snaps from under center

Dallas ran 34 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for 20 plays and in the shotgun for 14.

On those 20 snaps from under center, Moore called:

14 rushes;
one pass;
five play-action passes.

Second half snaps from the shotgun

Prescott was in the shotgun for 14 plays in the second half, Moore called:

five rushes;
seven pass attempts;
one quarterback run off play-action;
one play-action pass.

In the second half, Moore called 20 runs and 14 passes.

The Cowboys continued to have success running the ball in the second half. Dallas finished the day with 223 rushing yards on 36 attempts (6.2 yards per carry).

This column has often denounced Moore for not calling enough play-action runs for quarterback Dak Prescott. They used them so effectively in Weeks 1-3, but then didn’t try it at all in Weeks 4-6. Moore would later go five games, in Weeks 10-14, with calling just one (three games) or zero (two games) play-action runs for Prescott.

In Week 17 against Washington, Moore called one play-action run, and Prescott galloped for 22 yards on third down on a drive that would eventually result in a touchdown.

Totals for the game

Moore called 74 plays in Week 17. Prescott was under center for 33 plays and in the shotgun for 41.

Moore called 36 running plays:

24 when Prescott started under center;
11 from the shotgun;
one off play-action (from shotgun).

Moore called 38 pass attempts:

one after the quarterback dropped back from center;
eight off pay-action when Prescott starts under center;
26 from the shotgun;
three off play-action in the shotgun.

The Dallas offense was balanced in terms of the under center/shotgun distribution (33 under center compared to 41 in shotgun), and they were equally balanced in terms of run/pass ratio (36 runs and 38 pass attempts).

These numbers are characteristic of Moore’s play calling in the games the Cowboys won. Only two of their eight victories came in games that the Cowboys weren’t balanced; the only games Dallas won in which they went pass heavy or used the shotgun primarily were against the Lions and Giants.

Conclusions

Moore got back to running from the shotgun (11 times) and using play-action (12 times).

Moore had one of his best games in relation to the 80% threshold associated with Linehan’s predictability. Dallas ran on 72.7% of the snaps that Prescott took under center (24 of 33). Moore called a pass on 70.7% of the shotgun snaps (29 of 41).

Moore’s play calling was a paragon of balance against the Redskins in Week 17, much like it was against the Giants (Week 1), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles (Week 7), and Rams.

It is difficult to resist the temptation to simplify: it seems like the Cowboys win games when they can run the ball effectively and lose them when Moore abandons the run and fails to maintain balance in his play-calling.

While the ability to run the ball successfully is probably a partial cause of their ability to win games, Moore’s tendency in 2019 to become one dimensional (frequent use of the shotgun and passing on nearly every play) could be a consequence of being behind on the scoreboard, rather than a cause of the loss.

That being said, many pundits will still argue that Moore abandoned the running game too quickly and too thoroughly in several games when they were losing by less than two touchdowns.

Kellen Moore demonstrated in 2019 that he is an excellent play caller when the Cowboys can run the ball effectively. The real challenge for Moore in 2020 is trying to figure out how to move the ball and score points when they face defenses that can shut down their running game (regardless of whether the shutting down is based on superior line play or stacking the box). This responsibility has to fall on their quarterback, Dak Prescott, and their receiving corps.

Miscellaneous Observations

None of the stats that normally get discussed here (third down conversion rates, yards per drive, points per drive, snap counts etc.) seem even remotely relevant right now.

The Dallas Cowboys appear to be looking for a new head coach. They have an offensive coordinator who didn’t exactly take the NFL by storm in his first season. They have a defense that didn’t live up to the lofty pre-season expectations.

Given the potential for big changes in the Dallas Cowboys organization, this should be an fascinating offseason.

You can follow on Twitter here.

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Moore bailed on play-call diversity at season’s most critical juncture

Coordinator Kellen Moore made some puzzling decisions in Week 16, including: not running from the shotgun, not using play-action more, and…

The Dallas Cowboys lost a game that they needed to win. The 17-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles drops them below .500 and probably eliminates them from the playoffs.

Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore broke with his own tradition of establishing a run/pass balance in the first half, but ultimately he called a fourth quarter like we have seen in most of their losses: throwing the ball on almost every play from the shotgun.

The Eagles largest lead was 17-6. Despite the success Dallas has had running the ball from the shotgun (15 times in the first half against the Rams), Moore called just one rush from the shotgun the entire game.

This game showed other puzzling decisions from Kellen Moore. He used play-action relatively infrequently even though it was effective. He also neglected to call any designed runs for the quarterback.

Here’s how.

The Context

This weekly examination of the Cowboys pay calling began as a simple question: would Moore, the guy touted as having a genius football mind, be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan?

Linehan was predictable in the most pedestrian of ways: he called running plays more than 80% of the snaps the quarterback took from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the shotgun snaps.

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above.

You can read the stats from all the previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 16 versus the Philadelphia Eagles

Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles by the quarterback as passing attempts.

Dallas ran 62 offensive plays against Philadelphia. Quarterback Dak Prescott was under center for 17 of those plays (27.4%) and in the shotgun for 45 plays (72.5%).

Moore called 15 running plays, 42 pass attempts, and five pass attempts off play-action.

First half snaps under center

The Dallas offense ran a mere 24 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for just five of those plays.

Of the five snaps from under center in the first half:

four were runs;
one was a play-action pass attempt.

First half snaps from shotgun

Prescott was in the shotgun for 19 snaps in the first half. Moore called:

one run;
17 passes;
one play-action pass attempt.

In the first half, Moore called five runs and 19 passes.

This type of pass-heavy play calling in the first half is not typical of Moore this year. He, far more often, has called a fairly balanced game in terms of both run/pass ratio and formation (under center versus shotgun) in the first halves of games.

Last week against the Rams, Moore called 25 runs and 17 passes in the first half.

Moore frequently uses play-action on more than 25% of the first-half passing attempts. Last week against Los Angeles, six of Prescott’s 17 first-half pass were off play-action (35%). This week, Prescott threw just two passes using play-action out of 19 attempts (10.5%).

Second half snaps from under center

Dallas ran 38 plays in the second half.

Prescott was under center for 12 plays. On those 12 snaps, Moore called:

10 rushes;
two play-action passes.

Second half snaps from the shotgun

Prescott was in the shotgun for 26 plays in the second half. On those 26 plays, Moore called:

one rush;
25 pass attempts;
one play-action pass.

Moore tried to get the running game going in the second half. Running back Ezekiel Elliott did have third-quarter runs of 10, eight, and nine yards (3 runs for 37 yards). Although, those successful runs were somewhat offset by six rushes for two yards or less (2, 1, 1, -2, 2, -1 or 6 carries for three yards).

The Cowboys certainly had their chances to get back in the game. When running back Tony Pollard fumbled at the Philadelphia 25 yard line, Dallas was only losing 10-6.

Even after the fumble, the Cowboys defense got the ball back to the offense with the score still at 10-6. The Cowboys picked up a few first downs (after a nine-yard run by Elliott on first down and a 14-yard reception by tight end Blake Jarwin). But on 3rd and 12, Prescott missed a “wide open” (Troy Aikman’s words) Amari Cooper to end the drive.

After the poor throw by Prescott, the Eagles scored on their next possession to make it 17-6, and then, as we have seen in recent games played against everyone but the Rams, Moore resorted to throwing from the shotgun on nearly every play (19 straight times).

Totals for the game

Moore called 62 plays in Week 16. Prescott was under center for 17 plays and in the shotgun for 45.

Moore called 15 running plays:

14 when Prescott started under center;
once from the shotgun;
zero off play-action.

Moore called 47 pass attempts:

zero when the quarterback dropped back from center;
three off pay-action when Prescott starts under center;
42 from the shotgun;
two off play-action in the shotgun.

The Dallas offense was not balanced in terms of the under center/shotgun distribution (17 under center compared to 45 in shotgun), and they were equally unbalanced in terms of run/pass ratio (15 runs and 47 pass attempts).

Whenever the run/pass ratio is so dominated by passing attempts, the Dallas Cowboys lose. Every game in which Moore resorted to passing on every play from the shotgun, Dallas has lost.

Conclusions

It is notable that Moore called so few rushing attempts in the first half (5).

The thing that stands out most though is that Moore didn’t use the tactics that have been successful in the past: running from the shotgun, play-action from both formations, and designed runs for the quarterback.

In terms of the predictability, Moore has been able to distance himself from the 80% threshold associated with Linehan in one of the two formations (under center or shotgun), but rarely has he done it from both formations in the same game.

Moore called runs on more than 82% of the snaps from under center (14 runs on 17 snaps). He called passes on 97.7% of the shotgun plays (44 passes out of 45 snaps).

Miscellaneous Observations

Why does it seem like every NFL offense can effectively execute screens against the Cowboys defense, but the Dallas offense can’t run a screen against anyone? Remember when Elliott scoring on long screens, like the 60+ yarder against the Steelers, used to seem like it was common?

After Dak Prescott missed a throw, Joe Buck observed that, Prescott has been “off” that game; Troy Aikman remarked that he’d been off for a “few weeks, to be honest.”

It is hard to argue with that assessment. For a thorough review of Prescott’s performance against the Eagles, do yourself a favour and read Lynn Pierce’s post comparing Prescott and Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz.

Many Cowboy fans are still convinced that the Cowboys are a very talented team; hence, the players are not to blame.

Coaches didn’t make bad throws, or drop passes, or fumble the football, or fail to maintain their gaps, or miss tackles.

Some are starting to question whether the Dallas Cowboys are as talented as their public perception, Pro Bowl resumes, and high salaries suggest.

The Cowboys stay home this week to face the Washington Redskins in the season finale. It will be interesting to see whether they are able to come out and play with any intensity.

You can follow on Twitter here.

Kellen Moore rediscovered wrinkle that helps evade Linehan’s predictability

Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore sent the NFL a message: if the Cowboys can run the ball effectively, they will keep running it.

The Dallas Cowboys trounced the Los Angeles Rams for their most important and impressive victory of the year. The 44-21 win gets them back to .500 and tied with the Philadelphia Eagles at 7-7 for first place in the NFC East.

The Cowboys offensive coordinator got back to his winning ways, and he did it by calling an offensively-balanced game as he did early in the season. With the offense executing well enough to score points and the defense only giving up one touchdown, Kellen Moore was able to maintain a balanced approach. In the the previous three games, Moore called a balanced game in the first half, but resorted to passing from the shotgun almost exclusively in the second half.

Moore showed that when the Dallas Cowboys can run the ball effectively, he will keep running it.

Here’s how.

The Context

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above.

You can read the stats from all the previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 15 versus the Los Angeles Rams

Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles by the quarterback as passing attempts.

Dallas ran 67 offensive plays against the Rams. Quarterback Dak Prescott was under center for 28 of those plays (42%) and in the shotgun for 39 plays (58%). The week before, against the Chicago Bears, Prescott was in the shotgun for more than 80% of the plays.

Moore called 40 running plays, two runs off play-action, 17 pass attempts, and eight pass attempts off play-action.

First half snaps under center

The Dallas offense ran 42 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 14 of those plays. Of the 14 snaps from under center in the first half:

10 were runs
one was a pass attempt after dropping back from under center
three were play-action passes

First half snaps from shotgun

Prescott was in the shotgun for 28 snaps in the first half. Moore called:

13 runs
10 passes
two runs off play-action
three passes off play-action

The thing that stands out the most is that Moore called for rushes on 53.5% of the shotgun snaps. That is more runs from the shotgun (15) in a half than Moore has ever called in an entire game. The previous high for runs from the shotgun in a game was 13 against the Giants in Week 10.

In the first half, Moore called 25 runs and only 17 passes.

Dallas scored 28 points in the first half. Only one of those touchdown drives was short. Other than the one drive that started inside the Rams 10, the Cowboys had three long drives (90 yards on 15 plays, 97 yards on 14 plays, and 75 yards on three plays).

Moore continues to use play-action on more than 25% of the passing attempts. This week it was six play-action passes out of 17 total pass attempts (35%).

If you include the two play-action runs, then Moore called for play-action on 19% of all offensive plays.

In the five game games before the Bears in Week 14, Moore had only called a total of three play-actions runs. Against the Bears and Rams, he did it twice in both games.

Many fans want Moore use the running abilities of Dak Prescott more often.

Second half snaps from under center

Dallas only ran 25 plays in the second half.

Prescott was under center for 14 plays. On those 14 snaps:

12 rushes
one pass after dropping back from center
one play-action pass

Second half snaps from the shotgun

five rushes
five pass attempts
one play-action pass

The Cowboys had a lead to protect in the second half; Moore called eight pass attempts and 17 rushes.

This is the kind of run-heavy football that Moore wants this team to play. The only problem is that they haven’t been able to establish the early leads that would allow them to be that kind of offense.

Moore called 11-consecutive runs in the fourth quarter. Seven from under center and four from the shotgun. Compare that to the end of the last two games (28 and then 24 consecutive pass attempts from the shotgun). The Cowboys scored 10 points off those 11 runs.

Although Ezekiel Elliot (2) and Prescott (1), shared in those 11 fourth-quarter runs, rookie running back Tony Pollard deserves most of the credit. He had a nifty 33-yard jaunt on the field-goal drive, and then he had the 44-yard scamper for the touchdown.

Totals for the game

Moore called 67 plays in Week 15. Prescott was under center for 28 plays and in the shotgun for 39.

Moore called 42 running plays:

22 when Prescott started under center
18 from the shotgun
two off play-action (both from shotgun)

Moore called 25 pass attempts:

two when the quarterback drops back from center
four off pay-action when Prescott starts under center
15 from the shotgun
four off play-action in the shotgun

The Dallas offense was balanced in terms of the under center/shotgun distribution (28 under center compared to 39 in shotgun), but considerably more run heavy than most weeks (42 runs and 25 pass attempts).

Conclusions

Moore called more runs from the shotgun (18) than any other game this season. He called more runs in total (40) than any game this season. Not surprisingly, he called his fewest number of passing plays in a game this season (27). They scored more points (44) than any other game this season.

The Cowboys ran the ball on 62% of the plays. They averaged 5.8 yards per carry.

Moore called runs on more than 50% of the shotgun plays (20 rushes out of 39 snaps). However, he called runs on almost 80% of the snaps that Prescott started under center (22 rushes out of 28 snaps).

Miscellaneous Observations

After the 20-yard reception off play-action by tight end Blake Jarwin in the second quarter, Troy Aikman remarked, “That is what the running game does for you.” Apparently no one has told Troy Aikman about Cris Collinsworth’s discovery that effectively running the ball has no impact on the success of play-action passing.

Aikman’s comments on the merits of running the ball may be the most astute observation that viewers have heard during a broadcast since Tony Romo, in Week 13, commented, after a nice run by Elliott, that running was the “way to beat the best defenses” and that the Cowboys offense needed to “go through Elliott.”

If the Dallas Cowboys get on a run and have any playoff success, surely people will look back and realize that the 97-yard touchdown drive (14 plays) was the TSN Turning Point in their 2019 season.

The Cowboys successfully converted 7 of their 13 third-down attempts. They are now 85-175 for the year, which is 48.5% and best in the NFL.

The Rams successfully converted just four of their 12 attempts. The Cowboys defense is now 60-175 for the year, which means they prevent a first down on more than 65% of attempts (fourth best in the NFL).

According to Football Outsiders, Dallas is second in the NFL with an average of 40.76 yards per offensive drive; fifth with 2.4 points per drive; third with 6.57 plays per drive; and sixth with .279 touchdowns per drive.

The Cowboys travel to Philadelphia this week to face the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Dallas desperately needs to win this week to keep their momentum going into the playoffs.

You can follow on Twitter here.

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Kellen Moore’s submission to game situation showing in lopsided splits

The first half of Cowboys games manifest the type of balanced offense that Moore wants to have, but turnovers, penalties, missed FG’s, and..

The Dallas Cowboys suffered a disheartening loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 14, falling below .500 for the first time this season (6-7). They still remain ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East, by a full game if Eli Manning can earn his first victory of the season on MNF, by virtue of a tiebreaker if he can’t.

Like the previous week against the Buffalo Bills, Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore called a balanced game for the first half. The Cowboys were successful on the ground as running back Ezekiel Elliott had 72 yards on 13 carries.

On the first possession of the second half, the Bears scored to take a 17-point lead. After that touchdown, Kellen Moore became one dimensional, once again calling more than 20 straight pass attempts from the shotgun.

The Context

This weekly look at the play calling began as a simple question: would the new “offensive mind” hired by Cowboys owner Jerry Jones be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan.

Linehan was predictable in the most basic of ways. He called running plays more than 80% of the time that quarterback Dak Prescott took the snap from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the snaps that Prescott was in the shotgun.

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is less predictable than Linehan in terms of the above mentioned concepts. You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 14 versus the Chicago Bears

Dallas ran 72 offensive plays against the Bears with Prescott taking a mere 14 snaps from under center (58 in the shotgun). Moore called 19 running plays, 47 pass attempts, four passes off play-action, and two designed option runs for the quarterback Prescott.

First half snaps from under center

Dallas ran just 29 plays in the first half (43 in the first half last week). Prescott was under center for 13 of those plays. Of the 13 snaps from under center in the first half:

10 were runs
one was a pass attempts after a straight drop back
two were pass attempts off play-action

First half snaps from shotgun:

Prescott was in the shotgun for 16 plays in the first half. Of the 16 snaps from the shotgun:

three were runs
nine were passes
two were pass attempts off play-action
two were designed option runs for Prescott

Moore called 13 runs, two option runs for the quarterback, 10 pass attempts, and four pass attempts off play-action.

The first half of Cowboys games manifest the type of balanced offense that Moore wants to have. Again this week, there was a very balanced shotgun/under center ratio (16/13), and run/pass distribution (15 runs/14 passes).

But whether it is turnovers, penalties, missed field goals, or a porous defense, Moore has resorted to throwing the ball from the shotgun in the second half.

A few things stand out about the first half. The Cowboys actually ran the ball for more yards (73) than they amassed through the air (60).

Although it may have seemed that Moore did not call play-action passes as much as previous games (just four attempts), the percentage of play-action passes to total passes was still relatively high.

Four play-action passes out of 14 pass attempts is 28%; that is higher than the 24% (seven of 29) the previous week against the Bills.

Moore did finally call two option plays for Prescott. Designed runs for the quarterback have been missing in recent weeks. Moore hasn’t called a designed run for Prescott since against Minnesota in Week 10. Moore hasn’t called more than one designed for the quarterback in a game since he called four against Philadelphia in Week 7.

Second half: snaps from under center

Dallas ran 43 offensive plays in the second half.

Prescott was under center for just one of those snaps.

Of the one snap taken from under center:

one was a run

Snaps from the shotgun in the second half

Of the 42 snaps taken in the shotgun in the second half:

five were rushing attempts
37 were pass attempts

Dallas was the opposite of balanced in the second half.

When Dallas took possession of the ball for the first time in the second half, they were trailing 24-7. Facing that kind of deficit, Moore doesn’t appear to be opposed to going to the shotgun and throwing the ball on almost every play.

Moore only had Prescott take the snap under center once in the entire second half, and that was on a 4th-and-1 attempt. Including that rushing touchdown, Moore called six runs in the second half.

That is a bit better than last week when Moore called just two rushes in the second half and threw the ball 28 times in a row from the shotgun; this week he called 24 consecutive pass attempts from the shotgun.

There were no play-action attempts in the second half.

Totals for the game

Moore called 72 offensive plays in Week 14. Prescott was under center for 14 plays and in the shotgun for 58.

Moore called 21 running plays:

11 when the quarterback took the snap from under center
eight when the quarterback was in the shotgun
two off the read option by the quarterback (both from shotgun)

Moore called 51 pass attempts:

one after the quarterback dropped back from under center
two off play-action from under center
46 from the shotgun
two off play-action from the shotgun

Conclusions

The Cowboys threw the ball on 71% of the plays. But in the second half, Moore called a passing attempt on 86% of the plays, and they were all from the shotgun.
It is hard to see the Cowboys as anything other than what they are: a club that is fighting to stay at .500.
Kellen Moore has not turned out to be the offensive guru that many had hoped.
One has to wonder whether Dallas head coach Jason Garrett will get blamed for the poor tackling that plagued the Cowboys defense.
Losing is certainly a team effort in Dallas. From the offensive line to the linebackers to the wide receivers, there are not many units, or even players, that shouldn’t be considered “under performing”.
The call for coaching changes in Dallas won’t get any quieter this week.

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Kellen Moore going one dimensional despite ground success was a problem

The Cowboys ran the ball well against Buffalo, but didn’t stick with it. Kellen Moore’s play-calling got completely one dimensional.

The Dallas Cowboys suffered a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. They fell to 6-6, but they still remain one game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore called a balanced game for the first half. On the Cowboys’ first possession of the the third quarter, trailing by a mere nine points (16-7), and knowing that running back Ezekiel Elliot had averaged over five yards a carry in the first half, Moore’s play-calling became almost one dimensional. When that drive failed to produce any points and the Bills went up 23-7, Moore resorted to calling endless passes from the shotgun.

The Context

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is less predictable than Linehan in terms of the above mentioned concepts.

You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 13 versus the Buffalo Bills

Dallas ran 75 offensive plays against the Bills with Prescott taking 21 snaps from under center and 54 in the shotgun.

Moore called 16 running plays, 50 pass attempts, and nine passes off play-action.

First half snaps from under center

Dallas ran 43 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 17 of those plays.

Of the 17 snaps from under center in the first half:

10 were runs
two were pass attempts after a straight drop back
five were pass attempts off play-action

First half snaps from shotgun:

Prescott was in the shotgun for 26 plays in the first half.

Of the 26 snaps from the shotgun:

four were runs
20 were passes
two were pass attempts off play-action

Moore called 14 runs, 22 pass attempts, and seven pass attempts off play-action.

A few things stand out about the first half.

Like last week, Moore was balanced in the first half. Only 60% of the plays came from the shotgun.

The Cowboys had success running the ball in the first half. They gained 72 yards on the ground; running back Ezekiel Elliott averaged over five yards a carry.

Analyst Tony Romo commented in the first quarter, at about 6:00, after a nice run by Elliott, “That’s how you beat the best defenses… I still believe that they need to go through Elliott.”

Like the last few weeks, Moore has gone back to calling a lot of passes off play-action. In the first half, seven of the 29 pass attempts came off play-action (24%).

Snaps from under center in the second half

Dallas ran 32 offensive plays in the second half.

Prescott was under center for just four of those snaps.

Of the four snaps taken from under center:

two were runs
two were pass attempts off play-action

Snaps from the shotgun in the second half

Of the 28 snaps taken in the shotgun in the second half:

28 were pass attempts

Dallas was the opposite of balanced in the second half. The surprising thing was how quickly Moore was willing to give up on the running game.

When Dallas took possession of the ball for the first time in the second half, they were trailing 16-7.

On the first play of their first possession in the second half, Elliott ripped off a 12-yard run. That play caused Tony Romo to remark, “This needs to be where they go right now.”

The Cowboys ran the ball well in the first half. Moore called just one more rushing play the entire game.

That first drive of the second half ended with a missed field goal attempt by Dallas kicker Brett Maher.

After the missed field goal, Moore would go on to call 27 consecutive pass attempts from the shotgun. Linehan was never that one dimensional.

Totals for the game

Moore called 75 offensive plays in Week 13. The only time Moore has called more plays in a game this season was the 82 against the New York Jets.

Moore called 16 running plays:

12 when the quarterback took the snap from under center
four when the quarterback was in the shotgun

Moore called 59 pass attempts:

two after the quarterback dropped back from under center
seven off play-action from under center
48 from the shotgun
two off play-action form the shotgun

Conclusions:

Moore appears to be floundering. as the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t have an identity or a winning formula.

The Cowboys were running the ball well; they were averaging more than five yards a carry, then Tony Romo said, for the second time, that the Cowboys needed to feed the ball to their running back, Ezekiel Elliott. After one more rushing attempt on that drive, Moore proceeded to call 27 passes from the shotgun.

Much to the chagrin of many, this was yet another game with no designed runs for Prescott. It is disappointing that Moore has not scripted a few runs for Prescott in every game.

Everyone is calling for coaching changes in Dallas. The staff has a few weeks to ‘right the ship’ before the playoffs. If they fail to get this team ready to win in the playoffs, there could be big changes this offseason.

You can follow on Twitter here.

Cowboys lost offensive balance as Patriots game progressed

The Cowboys offense was balanced in terms of their formations and run/pass distribution, but the they still couldn’t score enough points.

The Dallas Cowboys lost a disheartening contest to a New England Patriots team that hasn’t lost at home in years. The Cowboys fell to 6-5, but they still remain one game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Dallas played from behind for most of the game and the offense didn’t score a single touchdown, but Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore still managed to call a balanced game.

The Context

This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is less predictable than Linehan in terms of the above mentioned concepts.

You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

The Raw Data from Week 12 versus the New England Patriots

Dallas ran 62 offensive plays against the Patriots. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott took 24 snaps from under center and 38 in the shotgun.

Against New England in Week 12, Moore called 24 running plays, 28 pass attempts, and 10 passes off play-action.

First half snaps from under center

Dallas ran 35 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 16 of those 35 plays.

Of the 16 snaps from under center in the first half:

10 were runs
two were pass attempts after a straight drop back
four were pass attempts off play-action

First half snaps from shotgun:

Prescott was in the shotgun for 19 plays in the first half.

Of the 19 snaps from the shotgun:

six were runs
10 were passes
three were pass attempts off play-action

A few things stand out about the first half.

Despite the success Prescott has had throwing the ball from the shotgun in previous weeks, Moore went back to a more traditional notion of balance in the first half: Prescott took 45.6% of the snaps from under center.

For Cowboys fans, it was a rare half of football in at least one way: Moore achieved a genuine balance in formation (16 under center and 19 from the shotgun) and run/pass distribution (16 runs, 12 passes, and seven pass attempts off play-action), but the offense was not effective at scoring points (a mere six in the half).

Moore is back to calling a lot of passes off play-action. In the first half, seven of the 19 pass attempts came off play-action (36%).

Snaps from under center in the second half

Dallas ran 27 offensive plays in the second half.

Prescott was under center for eight of those snaps.

Of the eights snaps taken from under center:

six were runs
two were pass attempts off play-action

Snaps from the shotgun in the second half

Of the 19 snaps taken in the shotgun in the second half:

two were runs
16 were pass attempts
one was a pass attempt off play-action

Dallas was not as balanced in the second half in terms of the formation (eight snaps under center and 19 in the shotgun) or the run/pass distribution (eight runs, 16 passes, and three pass attempts of play-action).

As is often the case in the second half, the rushing attempts go down, the shotgun snaps and pass attempts go up.

They went from seven play-action passes on 35 plays in the first half (20%), to just three attempts on 27 second-half plays (11.1%).

The one explosive play by the Cowboys offense was the 59-yard catch-and-run reception by wide receiver Randall Cobb. That play came off play-action on a second-down play when Prescott was under center.

Totals for the game

Moore called 62 offensive plays in Week 12. The only time the Cowboys have run fewer offensive plays once this year was the 57 they ran against New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

Moore called 24 runnings plays:

16 when the quarterback took the snap from under center
eight when the quarterback was in the shotgun

Moore called 38 pass attempts:

two after the quarterback dropped back from under center
six off play-action from under center
26 from the shotgun
four off play-action form the shotgun

Conclusions:

Moore’s unit only scored nine points in Week 12. No one wins many football games without scoring a touchdown.

The thing that stands out the most is the difference in the play-calling in the second half. Moore called for the shotgun on 70% of the snaps in the second half (19 of 27 or 70%) compared to just 54% in the first-half (19 of 35).

Moore also called more passing plays in the second half: 19 passes to eight runs (passing on 70.3% of the plays). In the first half, it was 16 runs and 19 pass attempts (passing on 54% of the plays).

This is the startling thing: even with all the shotgun formation and extra passing in the second half, the Cowboys actually gained more yards, earned more first downs, and scored more points in the first half.

2. Unfortunately, this was yet another game with no designed runs for Prescott. Given the success Prescott has had running the ball this season, it is disappointing that Moore has not scripted a few runs for Prescott in every game.

To my knowledge, no one has asked Moore to explain why there are not more designed runs for his quarterback. Someone should.

3. On a potentially more positive note: Moore did avoid the predictability that was so common under former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan – at least when Prescott was under center. He called runs on just 66.6% of the snaps Prescott took from under center (16 of 24).

When it came to calls from the shotgun, Moore was close to Linehan’s run/pass ratio: he called passes on 78.9% of the shotgun plays (30 of 38).

Moore, for much of 2019, has been able to evade Linehan-like predictability when the quarterback is under center. He rarely has a problem finding a way to pass more than 20% of the under-center snaps.

However, the Cowboys’ run/pass ratio is much more like Linehan when Prescott is in the shotgun; Moore has struggled to consistently call running plays on more than 20% of the shotgun snaps.

Is throwing so much from the shotgun a part of Moore’s general philosophy, or is it more indicative of the Cowboys being forced to throw the ball from the shotgun because they have been losing games?

4. Definitely more positive: Moore is back to calling a lot of play-action passes. After using play-action frequently in the first three games, Dallas got away from using it for a few weeks.

More than a 25% of Prescott’s pass attempts against New England came off play-action (10 of 38).

Moore has called 10 or more play-action passes in the last five games.

Miscellaneous Observations

Since 2018, the Cowboys are 9-1 against the NFC East and 7-10 against the rest of the NFL. Of those seven victories, only one has come against a team with a winning record (the Saints last year). The total is two if you include the Seahawks in the playoffs.
Has Jason Witten ever dropped two passes in one game before?
The Patriots were 3-14 on third-down conversions (21.4%). Opponents have converted just 43 of their 137 third-down attempts (31.3%). Dallas is third in the NFL for third-down defense (behind the Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers).
The Cowboys were terrible converting their own third downs; they converted just twice on 13 attempts. They are now 65-134 for the season, which drops them below 50%, and makes them the second best offense in the NFL at converting third downs (behind the Baltimore Ravens).
The disappearance of wide receiver Amari Cooper was impossible to miss if you watched the game and heard the commentators.The post about his split-stats for road games compared to home games is a must-read.

The Cowboys don’t have much time to wallow in the loss to New England, for they must prepare to face the Buffalo Bills and their stingy defense on Thanksgiving Day.

You can follow on Twitter here.

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Kellen Moore challenges dogma that Cowboys offense must run through Elliott

Kellen Moore is changing the “winning formula” in Dallas. He proved the Cowboys offense doesn’t need “to get Zeke going” to be effective.

The Dallas Cowboys struggled to defeat the 3-5-1 Detroit Lions in Week 11, but the victory improved their record to 6-4 to maintain first place in the NFC ahead of the 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles.

This is one of the few games this year that was actually a close game for all four quarters. The play-calling of Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore does not bear a striking resemblance to any of the previous games he has called. One has to be careful not to read too much into one game, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that the play-calling against the Lions might be the game in which Moore finally found his own version of a “balanced offense”.

It is quite possible Moore’s pass-heavy attack against Detroit was simply a reaction to defense stacking the line to stop running back Ezekiel Elliot; however, it is also possible Moore has accepted the reality that the Cowboys are at their best when Dak Prescott has the ball in his hands.

Could Moore finally be moving past the long and dearly held belief that the Cowboys offense needs, “to get Zeke going” to be effective?

You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

The Context

Dallas ran 69 offensive plays against the Lions. Prescott took 22 snaps from under center and 47 in the shotgun. This kind of disparity between snaps under center versus the shotgun is typical of the games the Cowboys have lost.

The only game Dallas won in which Prescott operated from the shotgun so frequently was against the Giants in Week 9 (26 from under center and 43 in shotgun).

In the first four victories, Dallas was balanced in terms of where Prescott lined up: 32-34 against the Giants, 32-36 in Washington, 32-39 versus the Dolphins, and 34-36 against the Eagles.

But the three games they lost saw a major shift to the shotgun: 18-39 in New Orleans, 21-52 against the Packers, 26-56 versus the Jets, and 20-51 against Minnesota.

The Saints game was a bit of an anomaly because they were never behind more than six points but still went heavy on the shotgun (18 snaps under center and 39 from shotgun) and they passed far more often then they attempted to run.

Raw Data from Week 11

Where these numbers differ from the official stat line, it is because offensive plays that were negated for penalties were intentionally included.

In Week 11 against the Detroit Lions, Moore called 18 runs, 35 passing plays, 16 play-action passes, and one rushing attempt off play-action.

First-half snaps under center

Dallas ran 40 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 9 snaps and in the shotgun for 31.

Of those 9 snaps from under center:

six were rushes
three were play-action passes

First-half shotgun snaps

Of the 31 shotgun snaps:

six were rushes
20 were passes
four were play-action passes
one was a play-action run

Dallas was not balanced in the first half in terms of formation (nine snaps from under center and 31 in shotgun) or the run/pass distribution, for they passed 67.5% of the time (12 runs, 20 passes, seven play-action passes and one play-action run).

A few more things stand out.

First, like the week before against the Vikings, Moore is back to using play-action on a regular basis. A full 20% of the first-half plays were based on play-action, and 26% of the passes came off play-action.

Second, unlike some of the previous games, Dallas only attempted one play-action run: it was a designed run for Prescott. The Cowboys seem to have gotten away from calling running plays for Prescott in recent weeks. It is a bit surprising that no one has asked Moore or head coach Jason Garrett to explain this change.

Third, the Cowboys scored 21 points in the second quarter. They only ran the ball from under center twice in the second quarter.

Snaps from the under center in the second half

Dallas ran 29 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for 13 snaps and in the shotgun for 16.

Of the 13 snaps that Prescott took under center:

six were runs
seven were play-action passes

Second-half shotgun snaps

Of the 16 plays from the shotgun:

14 were pass attempts
two were play-action passes

The Cowboys’ offense was much more balanced in the second half in terms of formation (13 snaps from under center and 16 from the shotgun), but they were not very balanced in terms of the run/pass distribution (six runs, 14 passes, and nine play-action passes). Despite having success with it in previous games, Moore called no rushing attempts off play-action.

It is noteworthy that Dallas did not run the ball from the shotgun at all in the second half.

Totals for game

Dallas ran 69 plays on offense.

Moore called 19 rushing plays:

12 from under center
six from from the shotgun
one of play-action from the shotgun

Moore called 50 passes:

ten off play-action from under center
34 from the shotgun
six passes off play-action from the shotgun

Conclusions

The things that sticks out most is the 16 play-action passes. Despite Prescott being crowned “Captain Play-Action” after the first three games this year, Moore really got away from calling play-action passes in Weeks 4-7.

In the last two weeks, Prescott has attempted more passes off play-action (16) in both games than in any of the previous games. The Cowboys attempted 50 passes; 32% of those passes came off pay-action. Almost a quarter (24.6%) of all the Cowboys plays involved some kind of play-action.

I have long held the conviction that being balanced is a prerequisite to offensive success in the NFL. Being balanced no longer means striving to run the ball 50% of the time.

It seems as though Moore may be in the process of redefining what it means to be a “balanced offense”.

I have argued that balance for the Cowboys should be predicated on three things: the traditional run/pass ration (preferably closer to 60% passing than 70%), the frequency with which they run the ball when Prescott is under center (preferably less than 75% compared to the more than 80% of Linehan) and the regularity with which they pass when Prescott is in the shotgun (preferably less than 75% compared to the more than 80% of Linehan).

Against Detroit, Moore called for a pass attempt on 72.4% of their plays.

Moore did keep the run/pass ratio balanced when Prescott was under center; he called running plays on just 54.5% of those plays (12 runs on 22 snaps), which is a drastic improvement from former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan who called runs on more than 80% of the under-center snaps.

However, Moore was Linehan-esque when calling passing plays from the shotgun; he called for a pass attempt on 40 of the 47 shotgun snaps. That is 85%, which is very similar to Linehan’s offense.

If Moore can string together a few victories over winning teams with this offensive approach to run/pass distribution and throwing so much from the shotgun, I look forward to admitting that my notions of a balanced being integral to offensive success are antiquated.

Miscellaneous Observations

When was last time that Cowboys’ fans were so disappointed and worried after a win? Giving up 27 points to the Lions without their starting quarterback is troubling.
Even more troubling is the success Detroit had running the ball with a player who wasn’t good enough to even make a game day roster until the Lions squad suffered multiple injuries.
The inability to stop the run could very well be the Dallas Cowboys Achilles’ heel.
Since 2018, Dallas is 9-1 against teams in the NFC East and just 7-9 against the rest of the NFL. Six of those victories came against teams with losing records (Lions were 6-10, Jaguars were 5-11, Falcons were 7-9, Buccaneers were 5-11, Dolphins are 2-7, and now the Lions who were 3-5-1). Other than the Eagles, their only victories against teams with winning records were the Saints last year and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
The Lions were 6 of 13 on third-down conversions (46%). Opposing offenses are converting third downs just 32.5% of the time against the Cowboys defense (40-123). Dallas owns the third best third-down defense in the league (after New England and San Francisco).
Dallas was an impressive 8-14 on their own third-down attempts (57%). They are now 63-121 on the season (52%). That makes them the best in the NFL at converting third downs.
Offensive yards per game is a misleading statistic. However, the stats of the Dallas offense continue to look elite. They are second, after Baltimore, in yards per drive (42.21). They are tied for second with Kansas City, also behind the Ravens, in points per drive (2.65). They are second, again behind Lamar Jackson’s team, in touchdowns per drive (.315).
Dallas was 3-5 in the red zone against the Lions. Their red zone efficiency for the year is 58.33, which puts them 17th in the NFL, but still much better than they were doing under Linehan.

The Cowboys have their biggest test of the season next week when they travel to New England to face the Patriots.

You can follow on Twitter @CJosephWright.

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Moore’s play-calling resembles Linehan, are Cowboys avoiding Dak runs?

The Cowboys were balanced in the first half in formations and run/pass distribution, but the offense became one dimensional in second half.

In Week 10, the Dallas Cowboys took another step backward; they fell to 5-4 by losing a close contest to the Minnesota Vikings.

Unlike the previous two games, Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was unable, or unwilling, to call a balanced game.

You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

Raw Data from Week 10

Where these numbers differ from the official stat line, it is because offensive plays that were negated for penalties were intentionally included.

Dallas ran 71 offensive plays against the Giants. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott took 20 snaps from under center and 51 in the shotgun, a ratio that is consistent with the games they have lost. The only game that Dallas won in which Prescott was Prescott operated from the shotgun so frequently was against the Giants in Week 9 (26 from under center and 43 in shotgun).

In the first four victories, Dallas was balanced in terms of where Prescott lined up: 32-34 against the Giants, 32-36 in Washington, 32-39 versus the Dolphins, and 34-36 against the Eagles.

But the three games they lost saw a major shift to the shotgun: 18-39 in New Orleans, 21-52 against the Packers, and 26-56 versus the Jets.

In Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings, Moore called 20 runs, 35 passing plays, 15 play-action passes, and one rushing attempt off play-action.

First-half snaps under center

Dallas ran 36 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 17 snaps and in the shotgun for 19.

Of those 17 snaps from under center:

nine were rushes
one was a straight drop-back pass
six were play-action passes
one was run off play-action

First-half shotgun snaps

Of the 19 shotgun snaps:

three were rushes
15 were passes
one was a play-action pass

Dallas was balanced in the first half in terms of formation (17 snaps from under center and 19 in shotgun) and the run/pass distribution (12 runs, 16 passes, and seven play-action passes and one play-action run).

A few more things stand out.

First, Moore is back to using play-action on a regular basis. Almost 20% of the first-half plays were play-action passes and 44% of the passes came off play-action. If you include the play-action run, then 22% of all first-half plays utilized play-action.

Second, unlike some of the previous games, Dallas only attempted one play-action run: it was a handoff to wide receiver Tavon Austin. The Cowboys seem to have gotten away from calling running plays for Prescott in recent weeks. One has to wonder if all the big hits Prescott’s takes in the pocket have caused Moore and company to be more reluctant to design intentional running plays for their quarterback.

Third, despite all the condemnation from the fans that Moore stubbornly sent running back Ezekiel Elliot in to a “brick wall” repeatedly, the Cowboys were not unsuccessful running the ball in the first half. Elliot had 37 yards on 12 carries, which is more than 3 yards a rush. That is far from spectacular, but it isn’t horrendous either.

Fourth, when criticizing Moore’s play calling, many people seemed to forget how the first two offensive drives ended. Both drives saw consecutive incomplete passes on second and six, and then again on third and six. That is two drives than ended when they couldn’t gain six yards on two pass attempts.

Snaps from the under center in the second half

Dallas ran 35 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for three snaps and in the shotgun for 32.

Of the three snaps that Prescott took under center:

two runs
one play-action pass

Second-half shotgun snaps

Of the 32 plays from the shotgun:

six were runs
19 were pass attempts
seven were play-action passes

The Cowboys’ offense lacked any semblance of balance in the second half in terms of formation (3 snaps from under center and 32 from the shotgun) or run/pass distribution (eight runs, 19 passes, and eight play-action passes). As mentioned above, despite having success with it in previous games, Moore called no rushing attempts off play-action.

This column rarely professes to have answers, but it does posit questions. In the second half, the Cowboys ran the ball eight times and threw it 27 times.

Could they have passed more and not have become completely one dimensional?

Are the Cowboys good enough to throw the ball effectively if they become one dimensional and the defense knows they are going to throw?

Totals for game

Dallas ran 71 plays on offense.

Moore called 21 rushing plays:

11 from under center
nine from from the shotgun
one of play-action from under center

Moore called 50 passes:

one from under center
seven off play-action from under center
34 from the shotgun
eight passes off play-action from the shotgun

Conclusions

Calling a balanced game for the Cowboys is a bit different than some other NFL teams. It is not as simple as looking at the run/pass ratio. That is definitely part of it, and I would argue that Dallas should be much closer to 60% passing than 70%. But that is only part of the equation because of the infrequency with which Dak Prescott takes a snap from under center and attempts a pass.

This season, Prescott has sometimes thrown three, and on fewer occasions four, passes a game after taking the snap from under center, but he averages less than 2.5 drop-back passes a game. Moreover, there is a tendency for some of these throws to be quick screen-type plays to the wide receiver. In previous years, it was unusual for Dak to attempt more than two passes a game after starting under center. Against the Vikings, Prescott threw just one pass after taking the snap from under center.

Given these “limitations”, being balanced for the Cowboys means not running too frequently when Prescott is under center and not throwing every time he is in the shotgun.

Prescott has officially attempted 319 passes in 2019. However, if you include, as this analysis does, plays called back for penalties, scrambles of designed passes, and sacks, then Moore has called 352 passing plays. Of those 352 passing plays, Prescott has dropped back from center and attempted to throw the ball a mere 22 times. That means that 6.25% of Moore’s calls for a pass attempt have been based on Prescott taking the snap under center.

In other words, 93.7% of Moore’s pass calls have been from the shotgun or off play-action. From a different angle: of the 352 passing plays that Moore has called in 2019, 297 of them have come out of the shotgun (84.3%).

Last week, this column lauded Moore and his play calling for finally getting away from the predictable trends that were a mainstay under former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. He was infamous for calling runs on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott took the snap from under center and calling passes on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott started in the shotgun.

You can click here to get the stats on how Moore’s numbers compare to Linehan for each of the first eight games. (It is near the end of the post.)

In Week 9 against the Giants, Dallas ran the ball on 15 of 26 snaps when Prescott was under center (57.6%); they attempted a pass on 67% of the plays that Prescott was in the shotgun (29 of 43). That is fantastic balance because it makes it impossible for the defense to know whether they are likely to pass or run based solely on the formation.

This week, Dallas ran the ball on 12 of the 20 plays that started with Prescott under center (60%). That is good balance. But, they attempted a pass on 42 of the 51 shotgun snaps (82.3%). That percentage is more like Scott Linehan, and it comes dangerously close to being predictable.

Miscellaneous Observations

The Vikings drive in the 3rd quarter that featured 10 straight runs (including the two-point conversion) was a genuine game changer.
It seemed like the Vikings ran similar type screens over and over again for big gains. Genuine question: is the failure to adjust to this play after seeing it at least 4 times also on Jason Garrett, or is the players or the defensive coaches?
Since 2018, Dallas is 9-1 against teams in the NFC East and just 6-9 against the rest of the NFL. Five of those victories came against teams with losing records (Lions were 6-10, Jaguars were 5-11, Falcons were 7-9, Buccaneers were 5-11, and the Dolphins are 2-7). Other than the Eagles, their only victories against teams with winning records were the Saints last year and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
The Vikings were 8 of 14 on third-down conversions (57%). Opposing offenses are converting third downs just 30.91% of the time against the Cowboys defense (34-110). Dallas owns the third best third-down defense in the league (after New England and San Francisco).
Dallas was an impressive 9-15 on their own third-down attempts (60%). They are now 55-107 on the season (51%). That makes them the best in the NFL at converting third downs.
The Cowboys were 0-2 on fourth-down attempts. On the season, Dallas ranks 30th in the league on fourth down; they convert just 20% of those attempts.

The games don’t get much easier for the Cowboys in the coming weeks: they face the Detroit Lions this week before squaring off against two tough AFC opponents in the Patriots and Bills.

You can follow on Twitter @CJosephWright.