The Dallas Cowboys suffered a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. They fell to 6-6, but they still remain one game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore called a balanced game for the first half. On the Cowboys’ first possession of the the third quarter, trailing by a mere nine points (16-7), and knowing that running back Ezekiel Elliot had averaged over five yards a carry in the first half, Moore’s play-calling became almost one dimensional. When that drive failed to produce any points and the Bills went up 23-7, Moore resorted to calling endless passes from the shotgun.
The Context
This weekly look at the play calling began as a simple question: would the new “offensive mind” hired by Cowboys owner Jerry Jones be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan.
Linehan was predictable in the most basic of ways. He called running plays more than 80% of the time that quarterback Dak Prescott took the snap from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the snaps that Prescott was in the shotgun.
This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is less predictable than Linehan in terms of the above mentioned concepts.
You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.
The Raw Data from Week 13 versus the Buffalo Bills
Dallas ran 75 offensive plays against the Bills with Prescott taking 21 snaps from under center and 54 in the shotgun.
Moore called 16 running plays, 50 pass attempts, and nine passes off play-action.
First half snaps from under center
Dallas ran 43 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 17 of those plays.
Of the 17 snaps from under center in the first half:
- 10 were runs
- two were pass attempts after a straight drop back
- five were pass attempts off play-action
First half snaps from shotgun:
Prescott was in the shotgun for 26 plays in the first half.
Of the 26 snaps from the shotgun:
- four were runs
- 20 were passes
- two were pass attempts off play-action
Moore called 14 runs, 22 pass attempts, and seven pass attempts off play-action.
A few things stand out about the first half.
Like last week, Moore was balanced in the first half. Only 60% of the plays came from the shotgun.
The Cowboys had success running the ball in the first half. They gained 72 yards on the ground; running back Ezekiel Elliott averaged over five yards a carry.
Analyst Tony Romo commented in the first quarter, at about 6:00, after a nice run by Elliott, “That’s how you beat the best defenses… I still believe that they need to go through Elliott.”
Like the last few weeks, Moore has gone back to calling a lot of passes off play-action. In the first half, seven of the 29 pass attempts came off play-action (24%).
Snaps from under center in the second half
Dallas ran 32 offensive plays in the second half.
Prescott was under center for just four of those snaps.
Of the four snaps taken from under center:
- two were runs
- two were pass attempts off play-action
Snaps from the shotgun in the second half
Of the 28 snaps taken in the shotgun in the second half:
- 28 were pass attempts
Dallas was the opposite of balanced in the second half. The surprising thing was how quickly Moore was willing to give up on the running game.
When Dallas took possession of the ball for the first time in the second half, they were trailing 16-7.
On the first play of their first possession in the second half, Elliott ripped off a 12-yard run. That play caused Tony Romo to remark, “This needs to be where they go right now.”
The Cowboys ran the ball well in the first half. Moore called just one more rushing play the entire game.
That first drive of the second half ended with a missed field goal attempt by Dallas kicker Brett Maher.
After the missed field goal, Moore would go on to call 27 consecutive pass attempts from the shotgun. Linehan was never that one dimensional.
Totals for the game
Moore called 75 offensive plays in Week 13. The only time Moore has called more plays in a game this season was the 82 against the New York Jets.
Moore called 16 running plays:
- 12 when the quarterback took the snap from under center
- four when the quarterback was in the shotgun
Moore called 59 pass attempts:
- two after the quarterback dropped back from under center
- seven off play-action from under center
- 48 from the shotgun
- two off play-action form the shotgun
Conclusions:
Moore appears to be floundering. as the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t have an identity or a winning formula.
The Cowboys were running the ball well; they were averaging more than five yards a carry, then Tony Romo said, for the second time, that the Cowboys needed to feed the ball to their running back, Ezekiel Elliott. After one more rushing attempt on that drive, Moore proceeded to call 27 passes from the shotgun.
Much to the chagrin of many, this was yet another game with no designed runs for Prescott. It is disappointing that Moore has not scripted a few runs for Prescott in every game.
Everyone is calling for coaching changes in Dallas. The staff has a few weeks to ‘right the ship’ before the playoffs. If they fail to get this team ready to win in the playoffs, there could be big changes this offseason.
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