Trading with a division-rival should be much more costly than any other team. What a Panthers trade for Sean Payton might bring to the Saints:
So the Carolina Panthers have elbowed their way into the Sean Payton sweepstakes, agreeing to meet the preliminary cost to trade for the former New Orleans Saints head coach’s contract. And that shouldn’t come cheaply for them. If he’s moved to a division rival, the Saints would be directly competing with Payton for the NFC South title each season while meeting him twice a year. The cost for acquiring him has to outweigh what other teams would pay.
Our projected trades from the Broncos (about 404 points), Texans (413 points), and Cardinals (495 points) carry similar values on the Rich Hill trade value chart, with a slight bump for Arizona given they play in the same conference and the Saints would be seeing Payton more frequently than if he were with an AFC team. Teams have their own draft pick value charts and models, but this one is my preferred reference tool. So how does Carolina stack up to our past proposals for other teams?
We’ll shoot for a points total of 581, which takes the difference between the Broncos and Texans offers (as AFC teams) against the Cardinals proposal (as an NFC team) and tacks it onto that, which reflects the greater concessions needed to keep Payton in the division. To get there, we’ll need the ninth overall pick in the first round (387 points) as well as Carolina’s second rounder from the San Francisco 49ers (No. 60, valued at 88 points), plus both of the Panthers’ fourth rounders in 2023 (No. 113, which is 29 points; and the 49ers pick at No. 130, at 22 points) as well as their third- and fourth-round pick in 2024 (estimated value of 59 and 31 points).
Still with us? Let’s lay it out more clearly:
- 2023 first round pick (No. 9)
- 2023 second round pick (No. 60)
- 2023 fourth round pick (No. 113)
- 2023 fourth round pick (No. 130)
- 2024 third round pick
- 2024 fourth round pick
That’s a big haul, and there’s room to negotiate some of those mid-round picks down a frame or two. But it leaves Carolina with the coach they covet most while still owning picks in rounds two (No. 39), three (No. 92), five, and seven, as well as most of their 2024 selections (including, most critically, each of their picks in the top two rounds). New Orleans ends up with five picks inside the first 114 slots and the means to reshape their roster or climb the board higher targeting a game-changing prospect. Their 2024 draft class is also fortified, which is important since the Saint won’t have a second rounder after trading it to the Philadelphia Eagles.
We’ve seen how one great draft class can change a team’s fortunes. The Saints have done it twice in recent memory in 2006 and 2017. They need to try and do it again. With so much uncertainty surrounding Dennis Allen and his coaching staff, it’s vital that they have the best possible roster to work with. Getting a trade package like this one would be a great start. New Orleans could make more moves to position themselves for a quarterback prospect at the top of the draft and still come away with immediate difference-makers later on.
But this is all probably moot, even if our methodology is sound. At the end of the day Payton needs to want the Panthers job, and nothing reported so far suggests that’s the case. And there’s the possibility that the Saints wouldn’t be as ambitious as we were here in wringing everything out of Carolina we thought we could get away with. Coach trades are rare in the NFL and we haven’t seen a big one like this executed in 20 years. So we may have been too optimistic here. But you never know, right? Swing for the fences and hope you make contact. That’s what the Panthers are thinking in meeting with Payton, and that’s our idea in putting this trade proposal together.
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