Tag: Repeatability

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency.  The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.

Also see: Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end

Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 20%

Running backs have been on the decline for many years while backfields become more fragmented and workloads spread over more “specialists.” That’s accelerated greatly for the last two seasons, and it is not just injuries shaking up depth charts.

Consider that in the last two years, 18 running backs made the Top-10. Only Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry logged back-to-back Top-10 seasons. And both have changed teams for 2024. The volatility of the top players is dramatic and unlike any other position. Six of the 2023 Top-10 were no better than No. 33 in 2022. Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs were in the Top-2 for 2022 and yet fell to No. 24 and No. 27 respectively. That’s a high draft pick last year that did no better than a fantasy RB3 for your team.

The disturbing part of this is not so much the tremendous turnover at the top, but that the new batch of elite fantasy scorers are almost all coming from deep in the rankings for the one year. The position has become the host for the annual Cinderella’s to show up and then stumble the next year.

The 2023 Top-10 running backs are very well represented in fantasy drafts with seven of them again drafted in this year’s Top-10 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry). The only Top-10 backs who fell out of the Top-10 in drafts so far have been Rachaad White (No. 14), Joe Mixon (No. 17), and Raheem Mostert (No. 32).

Hard to argue against waiting on running backs. Very hard.

Let’s make this even worse. Consider how well the Top-10 of 2021 fared just two years later.

Joe Mixon was the only running back to be Top-10 in 2021, and then again two years later. Half of the 2021 backs failed to place better than No. 33 just two seasons later.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

see: Quarterback | Running back | Tight end

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 50%

Wide receivers have long been one of the most consistent players to repeat an elite year. Consider that Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are currently on four-year streaks and would have been joined by Justin Jefferson had he not been injured last season.

Whereas running backs are in constant flux, there is a lot of reliability with wideouts. Always bet on the talent with wide receivers, much more than their situation.

A look at two years back is just as revealing. Consider the Top-10 from 2021 compared to last year:

Hunter Renfrow (No. 10) was the only Cinderella in the bunch.The other three that fell were all injured. You could draft wideouts with a two-year old cheatsheet and still likely end up with a solid group for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Tight Ends

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 tight ends change from year to year.

Elite tight ends are notoriously thin in the fantasy world, so it is no big surprise to see a high amount of volatile players from year to year. It is a position that really only offers about three or four players with any real difference-making statistics.

Also see: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver 

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 60%

The reality with tight ends is that the Top-5 tend to dominate the fantasy scoring for the position, and the rest make minimal difference, if any. But the position is improving each year in terms of increasing their roles on their respective teams.

Had Mark Andrews remained healthy, he would have pushed the tight ends up even higher. The exciting development is that four of the Top-10 came from a sub-No. 40 finish in 2022. Sam LaPorta was an exception for the ages as a break out rookie, but Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson both showed up in the Top-10 in just their second season, after a little-used rookie year.

The general rule with tight ends is that if they’ve had back-to-back Top-10 seasons, that they offer reliable value. The position is expanding in use by NFL teams and are starting to remake how receivers contribute.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Tight Ends

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 tight ends change from year to year.

Elite tight ends are notoriously thin in the fantasy world, so it is no big surprise to see a high amount of volatile players from year to year. It is a position that really only offers about three or four players with any real difference-making statistics.

Also see: QB | RB | WR

Top-10 TEs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Travis Kelce 1 2 1 1 1
George Kittle 2 4 19 3 3
Mark Andrews 3 1 6 5 17
Evan Engram 4 23 14 18 13
Tyler Higbee 5 13 18 8 33
Pat Freiermuth 6 12 0 0 0
Cole Kmet 7 21 41 0 0
Dalton Schultz 8 3 10 115 70
David Njoku 9 22 47 84 9
Dallas Goedert 10 8 20 10 20
Kyle Pitts 34 5 0 0 0
Rob Gronkowski 0 6 8 0 11
Hunter Henry 22 7 12 9 0
Mike Gesicki 23 9 7 12 49
Dawson Knox 12 10 35 29 0
Darren Waller 31 16 2 2 81
Robert Tonyan 19 48 3 62 78
Logan Thomas 33 44 4 50 74
T.J. Hockenson 47 14 5 32 0
Hayden Hurst 21 35 9 34 60
Zach Ertz 20 67 33 4 2
Eric Ebron 0 65 15 27 4
Jared Cook 0 18 17 7 5
Austin Hooper 24 24 21 6 6
Kyle Rudolph 90 41 38 16 7
Trey Burton 0 0 27 70 8
Vance McDonald 0 0 67 31 10
Top-10 Repeats 5 4 3 5

The Top-3 have been around for about five years each, and the rest have so much volatility that you’re likely to be disappointed if you reach for anyone outside of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews. Dallas Goedert has been Top-10 in three of the last four years and yet never better than No. 8. Has he been a difference-maker of any note? Not really. In a reception point league, those Top-3 are really the only difference makers and offer rare consistency.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

Also see: QB | RB | TE

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Top-10   WRs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Justin Jefferson 1 4 7 0 0
Tyreek Hill 2 6 2 32 3
Davante Adams 3 2 1 24 4
Stefon Diggs 4 7 3 20 11
A.J. Brown 5 32 14 21 0
CeeDee Lamb 6 19 24 0 0
Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 22 0 0 0
Jaylen Waddle 8 12 0 0 0
DeVonta Smith 9 29 0 0 0
Amari Cooper 10 27 15 10 149
Cooper Kupp 23 1 26 4 48
Deebo Samuel 36 3 95 31 0
Ja’Marr Chase 11 5 0 0 0
Diontae Johnson 32 8 21 39 0
Mike Evans 17 9 12 16 9
Hunter Renfrow 91 10 57 53 0
DeAndre Hopkins 47 45 4 5 1
Calvin Ridley 0 100 5 27 19
DK Metcalf 14 15 6 30 0
Tyler Lockett 13 16 8 13 16
Allen Robinson II 0 83 9 7 37
Keenan Allen 38 11 10 6 12
Michael Thomas 116 0 93 1 6
Chris Godwin 18 13 31 2 25
Julio Jones 96 91 52 3 2
Julian Edelman 0 0 113 8 21
Kenny Golladay 150 78 103 9 20
Antonio Brown 0 58 64 156 5
Adam Thielen 31 28 11 63 7
JuJu Smith-Schuster 27 135 16 61 8
Robert Woods 56 52 13 14 10
Top-10 Repeats 4 4 3 3

This shows just how consistently elite that Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs have been for the last three years. Interesting too that there have been no wideout with more than three straight Top-10 performances over the last five years. And that block of four receivers are all entering their fourth season.

The other six from 2021 all fell significantly. Half of the Top-10 from last year were no better than No. 19 the previous season. Half of the 2022 Top-10 experienced their first Top-10 year.

Over the last five years, only 12 of the 31 receivers that reached the Top-10 in a season did so in any of the other four. Take away those top four wideouts, and no wideout repeated a Top-10 the next season for the last two years.

The position enjoys more fantasy popularity than ever, but the repeatability of a Top-10 wideout has been zero outside of the top four. That’s not to say they lose all value. They continue to provide WR2 or WR3 stats, but lack the difference-making of that top tier. There’s a fair amount of transition at the top tier with that set of four heading into all new territory while going for their fourth-straight Top-10 year.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency.  The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.

Also see: QB | WR | TE

Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Top-10 RBs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Austin Ekeler 1 2 26 4 25
Christian McCaffrey 2 39 53 1 2
Josh Jacobs 3 12 8 20 0
Derrick Henry 4 23 3 5 16
Saquon Barkley 5 30 119 10 1
Nick Chubb 6 13 11 8 17
Aaron Jones 7 11 5 2 24
Rhamondre Stevenson 8 47 0 0 0
Tony Pollard 9 28 41 53 0
Dalvin Cook 10 16 2 6 30
Jonathan Taylor 30 1 6 0 0
Najee Harris 14 3 0 0 0
Joe Mixon 11 4 44 13 10
James Conner 19 5 27 34 6
Leonard Fournette 12 6 35 7 41
Ezekiel Elliott 22 7 9 3 5
Antonio Gibson 28 8 14 0 0
Alvin Kamara 16 9 1 9 4
Cordarrelle Patterson 31 10 0 0 0
David Montgomery 24 19 4 23 0
James Robinson 172 24 7 0 0
Kareem Hunt 39 49 10 48 12
Todd Gurley II 0 0 29 14 3
James White 0 95 42 18 7
Melvin Gordon III 48 18 13 21 8
David Johnson 121 58 21 36 9
Top-10 Repeats 1 3 5 4

Wow.

Just wow.

Austin Ekeler was the only Top-10 back to repeat from 2021 in PPR scoring. Granted, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Najee Harris fell just outside of the Top-10. But five running backs – Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard were Top-10 in 2022 after climbing up from a sub Top-20 season in 2021.

The impressive string of Top-10 years ended for Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott who tumbled back with ineffective years and neither appear likely to regain elite status this year, if ever again.

Interesting, too, was that while injury has an obvious impact on season stats, that wasn’t a huge culprit in the falling back of last year’s class of Top-10 backs. It was mostly less productive play, fewer touches, and playing in offenses that mostly fell collectively as well.

Nine of the ten best backs fell out of the Top-10 last year. No wonder the position witnesses a historic low in fantasy drafts. Back in the glory days of workhorse backs, there could be up to eight or nine backs taken in the first ten picks. So far this summer, it’s more often three or four.

But last year was an aberration. Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook were all Top-10 in 2020 before having a down season in 2021. And they bounced back last year.

The takeaway from this is that fantasy drafts do reflect the volatility that we saw when 2021 stars were almost all a disappointment the next year. But Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard were the only Top-10 backs last year that had never been in that grouping. As recently as 2020, half of the top tier repeated the next year and what plays into this season is that running backs have never been cheaper to draft.