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The St. Louis Cardinals (73-72) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (71-76) to Busch Stadium Thursday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 7-5
The Reds beat the Cardinals 3-0 Tuesday to kick off the series and lost 2-1 in the 2nd game Wednesday.
Cincinnati has won 3 of its last 4 games and 7 of its last 10. It has played well on the road with a 35-37 away record. The Reds are 82-65 against the spread (ATS).
The Cardinals are 6-4 over their last 10 games, yet just 2-3 over their last 5, dropping 2 of 3 in their prior series with the Seattle Marines. They have struggled offensively, tallying just 9 runs over their last 5 games. St. Louis is 38-35 at home and 72-73 ATS.
Reds at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Jakob Junis vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Junis (4-0, 2.82 ERA) makes his 4th start and 22nd appearance. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 51 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-0 road loss to the New York Mets Saturday
- 2024 away stats: 3-0, 3.55 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 11 appearances (1 start)
- Career vs. Cardinals: 0-1, 2.48 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 9 appearances (5 starts)
Gray (12-9, 3.84 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 154 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 4
- 2024 home stats: 8-5, 2.63 ERA (82 IP, 24 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 0-3, 5.82 ERA (17 IP, 11 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Reds at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Cardinals -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-145) | Cardinals -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no value here. The Cardinals are too great of a favorite to play on the moneyline while the Reds have been too inconsistent this season to take as an underdog.
Avoid this play.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS +1.5 (-145).
The Reds are the best-covering team in the majors on the road. They are 47-25 ATS in away games. St. Louis is 35-37 ATS at home, which is also in the top half of the league.
The Cardinals have had 2 of their last 6 games end within 1 run. They haven’t scored well enough as of late, producing 4 or fewer runs in 6 straight games, to assume they can pull ahead by a significant margin here. The Reds have won 3 of their last 4 games with 2 of those having been 1-run games.
Expect a close battle and take REDS +1.5 (-145).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).
The Reds have gone Under in 5 straight games, including Junis’ last start. They have scored 8 runs in those 5 games, so they clearly aren’t getting on base with any consistency.
The Cardinals are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games and 1-4-1 O/U in their last 6. St. Louis is 68-72-5 O/U on the season. Given both teams struggles offensively, take UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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