Tag: Red Sox Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (18-14) and Minnesota Twins (17-13) meet Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; tied 3-3 last season

Boston lost 3-1 vs. the San Francisco Giants Thursday while failing to cover as a -117 home favorite. Reliever Zack Kelly suffered the loss, allowing 4 H and 2 ER in 2/3 IP. The loss ended a 4-game win streak for the Red Sox.

Minnesota beat the Chicago White Sox 10-5 Wednesday while covering as a -214 road favorite. Minnesota has scored double-digit runs in 3 of its last 5 wins. The Twins have won 10 consecutive games, including 4 straight at home.

Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Chris Paddack

Houck (3-2, 1.60 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 39 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K in a 5-4 win over the Chicago Cubs Sunday
  • Career vs. Minnesota: 2-0, 3.12 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 16 H, 5 BB, 17 K in 3 starts

Paddack (2-1, 5.88 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.69 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 26 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K in a 16-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels Saturday
  • Career vs. Boston: 0-1, 23.14 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 1 start

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Red Sox at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-115).

Minnesota is the much hotter team entering this matchup, winning 10 consecutive games while the Red Sox have lost 2 of their last 3 road games. The Twins have also won back-to-back games vs. Boston.

There is always a slight risk when backing a team on such a hot streak as they will likely get the best of every opponent because opponents will want to end their win streak.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I fully expect the Twins to cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs, but they are not worth the risk of backing here with the line set this heavily. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in back-to-back games for the Twins and is 4-1 in their last 5 games and 7-3 in their last 10. For Boston, the Over hit in its last road game, but the Under has hit in 3 consecutive games for Boston. The Over has also hit in 8 of the last 10 Boston-Minnesota matchups.

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (39-36) and Minnesota Twins (37-38) meet Thursday to cap off a 4-game series. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox at Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-2

Boston won the 1st 2 games to push their winning streak to 6 before losing  5-4 in 10 innings on Wednesday.

The Twins are 2-5 with a 6.05 ERA over their last 7 games. On offense, Minnesota has logged a high-strikeout .660 OPS since June 2.

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Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Justin Garza vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Garza (0-1, 3.46 ERA) is making his 1st start of the season after 12 relief appearances. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 13 innings.

  • Serving as an opener; likely to be followed by LHP Brandon Walter who would be making his MLB debut
  • Threw 2 scoreless frames against Minnesota on Monday

Ryan (7-4, 3.30 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 84 2/3 innings.

  • Allowed 6 R last time out and has a 4.20 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • Has given the Twins 6-plus innings in 3 straight starts
  • Makes this start on 5 days’ rest; over his career has been better on 4-day rest

Red Sox at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox +146 (bet $100 to win $146) | Twins -174 (bet $174 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-146) | Twins -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 7, Red Sox 6

Moneyline

The Boston pitching plan makes for a lot of gray area in this matchup, The BoSox offense has played well enough of late (.911 OPS last 8 games) to make a PASS the wisest play (non-play) for this series finale.

Run line/Against the spread

Some bettors partial to Minnesota’s better pitching options may be tempted by the idea of Twins action on the run line. But both teams play more 1-run games than average, and this price is not too competitive. AVOID.

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Over/Under

The Over is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games and 9-1 across the last 10 series contests (13-2-1 last 16).

Both offenses figure as a tad undercooked (underlying numbers that point to higher runs-per-game averages). Boston’s bulk hurler, Brandon Walter, owns a 6.28 ERA, 1.67 WHIP at Triple-A this season.

Both bullpens have some fatigue-not-likely-available situations to work around.

On what figures as a warmed-up weather day in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 9 (-102).

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (39-35) and Minnesota Twins (36-38) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Wednesday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1

The Red Sox won 10-4 as +111 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series on Tuesday. Boston has won 6 straight contests and is 5th in the AL East, 11 games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays.

The Twins closed as -120 favorites in Tuesday’s loss. Minnesota has lost 5 of its last 6 contests and leads the AL Central by just 1 game.

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Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Garrett Whitlock vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Whitlock (4-2, 4.38 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 39 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-3 win vs. Colorado Rockies last Wednesday
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in his last 4 starts
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 11 K in 4 relief appearances

Gray (4-1, 2.37 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 76 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 8-4 loss vs. Detroit Tigers Thursday
  • Twins have lost in 6 of his last 8 starts
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-7, 6.29 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 56 H, 7 HR, 16 BB, 45 K in 10 starts and 1 relief appearance

Red Sox at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

Minnesota is 5-1 in its last 6 contests after losing the first 2 games of a series. While the Twins have lost in 6 of Gray’s last 8 starts, he has only recorded 1 loss and has been solid in June (3.45 ERA across 3 starts).

Boston is just 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. teams with a losing record and should regress toward the mean after an impressive 6-game win streak.

BET TWINS (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox have won 6 straight and their last 2 losses have both been by just 1 run. But there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Twins ML is the better play. Bet Minnesota ML and/or the total instead.

PASS.

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Over/Under

The Under is 9-3 in Boston’s last 12 games after scoring 5 or more runs in its previous contest. Gray has not allowed more than 3 ER in a game all season and should help keep this matchup low-scoring as Boston’s offense comes back down to Earth after scoring 19 runs in the 1st 2 games of the series.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (38-35) and Minnesota Twins (36-37) meet Tuesday for the 2nd contest of a 4-game serie. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox at Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1

Boston won Monday’s series opener 9-3, and the triumph marked the 5th in a row for the Crimson Hose. Over those 5 games, the Red Sox have outscored foes 40-14.

The Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 outings. Minnesota is just 5-10 with a .642 OPS with a 30.6% strikeout rate since June 3.

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Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Kutter Crawford vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Crawford (1-3, 4.20 ERA) is tabbed for his 6th start and 14th appearance. He has registered a 1.13 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 40 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 6.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last 10 2/3 IP across 4 starts
  • Has registered a 5.32 ERA in 35 career games (18 starts)

Ober (4-3, 2.65 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 57 2/3 IP.

  • Has benefited from a .250 batting average on balls in play, 80.6% left-on-base mark and 7.6% home runs/fly balls
  • Facing a Boston offense that owns a mere .630 OPS over its last 18 road games

Red Sox at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Twins -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-162) | Twins -1.5 (+134)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Boston has played a much tougher schedule than Minnesota and is 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. AL Central opponents.

Crawford catches a scuffling Twins lineup. Ober is a fade candidate as he’s been quite fortunate around the margins.

BACK BOSTON (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

Tuesday morning line moves made the Boston moneyline more attractive without much follow here. This price seems too high on the Red Sox side, especially considering the better availability of backend bullpen arms.

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Over/Under

The runs-vs.-runs expected for all sectors — starters, bullpens, offenses — lays out pretty close to this figure. With no leverage, this is a PASS.

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (62-68) and Minnesota Twins (67-61) will wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday with their 7th and final meeting of the year. First pitch from Target Field will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Twins lead 4-2

The Red Sox have now lost their last 3 games and 9 of their last 12. They’re last in the AL East and sit 9 games back of an AL Wild Card berth. Boston has been outscored 14-7 in the first 2 games of the series after it lost 10-5 Tuesday.

The Twins are in the midst of a 5-game win streak after sweeping the San Francisco Giants over the weekend and taking the first 2 games from the Red Sox. This streak comes after they lost 6 games in a row to the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, dropping them out of first place in the AL Central. They’re now only 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the division lead.

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Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Wacha (9-1, 2.53 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 89 IP.

  • Has made 3 starts since returning from the IL and allowed 0 earned runs in 2 of them. His ERA since returning is 1.93 across 18 2/3 innings.
  • Allowed 4 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday but still recorded his 3rd consecutive win

Ryan (10-6, 3.65 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 113 1/3 IP.

  • Dazzled in his last start against the Giants Friday with only 2 hits allowed and 0 runs in 6 innings while striking out 8
  • Has 3.25 ERA with 33 strikeouts through 27 2/3 innings in August, going 3-2 in 5 starts

Red Sox at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Twins -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Money line

I did not like the Red Sox Tuesday with RHP Kutter Crawford on the mound, but that sentiment changes with Wacha getting the ball Wednesday. The Red Sox have won each of his last 3 starts since coming back from injury and he’s looked sharp in those outings.

I like the RED SOX (+105) to win outright as slight underdogs on the road and snap their 3-game losing skid.

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Run line/Against the spread

I like the Red Sox on the road, but the spread doesn’t offer much upside. Getting 1.5 runs, you have to take Boston at -200. That’s not a great value, so I’m going to PASS on the run line. I’d rather just bet the money line.

Over/Under

There are two solid starters on the mound Wednesday, but these offenses are both putting runs across the plate pretty consistently. The Over/Under is set one run lower than Tuesday, and they cleared the total easily then.

I like the OVER 7.5 (-130) again.

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (62-67) and Minnesota Twins (66-61) continue their 3-game series Tuesday with Game 2 of the set. First pitch from Target Field will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Twins lead 3-2

The Red Sox have fallen way behind in the playoff race. They dropped the series opener 4-2 Monday and have lost 8 of their last 11 games to drop below .500. Boston is now last in the AL East, 6 games back of the Baltimore Orioles for 4th place. It’s dropped 2 games in a row after taking 2 games from the Tampa Bay Rays Friday and Saturday.

The Twins are rolling right now and sit just 1.5 games back of the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead. They’ve won 4 games in a row after losing 6 straight, getting back on track by sweeping the San Francisco Giants over the weekend and taking the opener Monday.

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Red Sox at Twins projected starters

RHP Kutter Crawford vs. RHP Chris Archer

Crawford (3-5, 5.30 ERA) makes his 12th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 73 IP.

  • Has been roughed up in each of his last 4 outings, all of which the Red Sox lost. He’s allowed 20 earned runs in his last 19 1/3 innings along that span giving up 5 home runs and 28 hits.
  • Has given up 3 home runs and 21 total hits in just 8 1/3 innings across his last 2 starts.

Archer (2-7, 4.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 91 1/3 IP.

  • The Twins have lost each of his last 8 starts, with he’s taken losses in 4 of them despite that he has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start 3 times along that span.
  • Hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in a single start this season.

Red Sox at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:26 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-180) | Twins -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Red Sox at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Red Sox 4

Money line

It’s hard to trust the Red Sox right now, even as only slight underdogs. The Twins looked shaky for a bit during their 6-game losing skid, but they got back on track in a big way.

They haven’t fared well with Archer on the mound, losing his last 8 starts, but they should be able to handle the Red Sox at home. Take the TWINS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Despite a wildly disappointing season, the Red Sox have been decent against the spread. They’re 66-62-1 ATS this season, considerably better than the Twins’ 57-70 mark. Minnesota is slightly better ATS at home, covering in 31 of 67 games, but the Red Sox are 34-30 ATS on the road.

With how badly Crawford has been roughed up in his last two starts, I don’t see him going deep into this game or limiting the Twins very much. Bet the TWINS -1.5 (+145) to cover the spread.

Over/Under

The Red Sox score a bunch of runs, ranking 11th in the majors in that department, but their pitching staff is only 25th in team ERA. The Twins have scored 24 runs in their last 4 games and they shouldn’t have much trouble getting to Crawford.

Bet the OVER 8.5 (-130).

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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (5-4) host the Boston Red Sox (6-3) for an early afternoon game Monday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

After getting swept in the opening series vs. the Baltimore Orioles, Boston has won six in a row, just swept the Orioles in three games and outscored them 27-16.

Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to drop its previous series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1.

LHP Martin Perez (0-0) makes his second start of the season for the Red Sox.

Perez picked up a no-decision in Boston’s 6-5 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday. He pitched five innings, surrendering three earned runs on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts.

  • 2020 season: 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (62 IP, 31 ER, 46 K, 28 BB) in 12 starts.
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 14 ER, 26 H, 13 K, 13 BB) in 5 appearances and 4 starts.

LHP J.A. Happ (0-0) is on the rubber Monday for the Twins.

Happ went four innings for a no-decision in Minnesota’s 4-3 extra innings loss Tuesday to the Detroit Tigers. He allowed one earned run on three hits and three walks with four strikeouts.

  • 2020 season: 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.05 WHIP (49 1/3 IP, 19 ER, 37 H, 42 K, 15 BB) in 9 starts for the New York Yankees.
  • 2020 vs. Red Sox: 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 12 K, 2 BB) in 2 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Red Sox at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-145) | Twins -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Twins 9, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the TWINS (-150) for a half-unit because it’s at the fringe of my price range for a favorite. If Minnesota were any more expensive, I’d probably take a shot at the run line instead.

However, I do feel confident enough in the Twins to include their money line in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

Happ is very familiar with the Red Sox since he has spent the previous five seasons playing in the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays (2016-18) and the Yankees (2018-20).

He has won five straight starts against Boston and has 1.76 ERA in those outings. Current Boston hitters have 178 at-bats vs. Happ and are slashing .219/.259/.371 with 7 HR and 15 RBIs.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the TWINS -1.5 (+120) for a quarter-unit because I have confidence Minnesota’s lineup can get to Perez.

Last season, the Twins were bottom-10 vs. lefties in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS, but thus far have turned it around and are top-10 in all those categories this year.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 9.5 (-110) for a half-unit because both starters aren’t hard throwers, and each had an absurdly high fly ball rate in their first outing.

The weather forecast is predicting 13 MPH winds blowing out to center field so there are a few power hitters in each lineup that might go yard in these conditions.

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