The Minnesota Twins (5-4) host the Boston Red Sox (6-3) for an early afternoon game Monday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
After getting swept in the opening series vs. the Baltimore Orioles, Boston has won six in a row, just swept the Orioles in three games and outscored them 27-16.
Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to drop its previous series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1.
LHP Martin Perez (0-0) makes his second start of the season for the Red Sox.
Perez picked up a no-decision in Boston’s 6-5 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday. He pitched five innings, surrendering three earned runs on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts.
- 2020 season: 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (62 IP, 31 ER, 46 K, 28 BB) in 12 starts.
- Career vs. Twins: 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 14 ER, 26 H, 13 K, 13 BB) in 5 appearances and 4 starts.
LHP J.A. Happ (0-0) is on the rubber Monday for the Twins.
Happ went four innings for a no-decision in Minnesota’s 4-3 extra innings loss Tuesday to the Detroit Tigers. He allowed one earned run on three hits and three walks with four strikeouts.
- 2020 season: 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.05 WHIP (49 1/3 IP, 19 ER, 37 H, 42 K, 15 BB) in 9 starts for the New York Yankees.
- 2020 vs. Red Sox: 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 12 K, 2 BB) in 2 starts.
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Red Sox at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-145) | Twins -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Twins 9, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the TWINS (-150) for a half-unit because it’s at the fringe of my price range for a favorite. If Minnesota were any more expensive, I’d probably take a shot at the run line instead.
However, I do feel confident enough in the Twins to include their money line in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.
Happ is very familiar with the Red Sox since he has spent the previous five seasons playing in the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays (2016-18) and the Yankees (2018-20).
He has won five straight starts against Boston and has 1.76 ERA in those outings. Current Boston hitters have 178 at-bats vs. Happ and are slashing .219/.259/.371 with 7 HR and 15 RBIs.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the TWINS -1.5 (+120) for a quarter-unit because I have confidence Minnesota’s lineup can get to Perez.
Last season, the Twins were bottom-10 vs. lefties in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS, but thus far have turned it around and are top-10 in all those categories this year.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 9.5 (-110) for a half-unit because both starters aren’t hard throwers, and each had an absurdly high fly ball rate in their first outing.
The weather forecast is predicting 13 MPH winds blowing out to center field so there are a few power hitters in each lineup that might go yard in these conditions.
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