AFC Playoff Picture entering Week 12

The AFC playoff picture features the Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, and Colts as division leaders heading into Week 12

We didn’t learn much about the AFC playoff picture this week. The Ravens and Patriots seem like the cream of the crop in the AFC. Both those teams are poised to secure byes and the only thing in doubt is whether Baltimore or New England will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Texans are flawed and are in a battle with the Colts for the AFC South. The Chiefs should win the AFC West. The wild cards will be a battle between the loser of the Texans-Colts battle, the Buffalo Bills, the Oakland Raiders, and maybe the Steelers or the Browns. Yes, somehow the Browns are still alive, folks.

AFC East

New England Patriots 9-1

The Patriots have one concern: their offense. The New England defense can’t keep bailing out the other side of the football. That hasn’t been the case for a long time in New England. The good news for the reigning Super Bowl champion is that they only play one very good defense the rest of the schedule. The Cowboys should be a good defense but haven’t really shown it on the field. The Texans and Chiefs can be scored upon. There’s probably two losses left on the schedule, but 13 wins should be enough to get the top seed unless the Ravens continue to dominate opponents.

Remaining Schedule: Cowboys, @Texans, Chiefs, @Bengals, Bills, Dolphins

Buffalo Bills 7-3

The Bills need to beat the Broncos or their playoff hopes are in deep trouble. The four games after Week 12 are in tough situations where they play the Cowboys, Steelers, and Patriots away and have to try and stop the Ravenswhich doesn’t look possible right now. What looked like an easy path to the playoffs now looks a little scary.

Remaining Schedule: Broncos, @Cowboys, Ravens, @Steelers, @Patriots, Jets

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Rams call Ravens the best team, Lamar Jackson the best player in NFL

The Rams know just how tough this matchup with the Ravens will be.

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Having played four teams at or below .500 in their last four games, the Los Angeles Rams haven’t exactly been tested in recent weeks. They’ve gone 3-1 in that stretch, but the last playoff contender they faced was the 49ers in Week 6.

If they’re looking for a test – a measuring-stick game, if you will – they’ll get one on Monday night at the Coliseum. The Ravens are coming to town, being viewed by many as the best team in the league. They’ve won each of their last four games by at least 14 points, including victories over the Seahawks, Patriots and Texans.

The Rams know their next game is going to be a challenge, saying as much after their win over the Bears on Sunday. Eric Weddle tweeted his excitement over their Week 11 win, while simultaneously calling the Ravens the best team in the league.

Nothing better than celebrating with my teammates. Great team win. Got a huge one with the best team in the league up next. Will be ready!!! Yeeeeeeeeee. Ice cream finally. pic.twitter.com/TZVg3DtzFx

— Eric Weddle (@weddlesbeard) November 18, 2019

Todd Gurley didn’t praise the Ravens to the extent that Weddle did – he did say “they’re looking like one of the best teams in the league – but he did throw a huge compliment Lamar Jackson’s way. He called the second-year quarterback the best player in the NFL right now and compared him to Michael Vick, who was at the Coliseum on Sunday.

“Best player in the league right now,” he told reporters. “He’s killing it. We had Vick here today and he’s the next thing closest to him. I mean, he’s amazing. Super proud of him.”

Clay Matthews was asked in the locker room if he’s excited to face Jackson on Monday night. His sarcastic response says everything you need to know about how he feels.

“Am I excited?” he said with a smile. “Any time you get to face an elite opponent, it’s not fun when they’re making plays against you, but it’s fun to have that opportunity to go against them, test your prowess and see who comes out on top. They’re playing very well, he’s playing outstanding and you’re right, obviously a front-runner in the MVP race.”

This will undoubtedly be the Rams’ toughest test yet, and they’re well aware of just how difficult an opponent the Ravens will be.

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Rams are home underdogs for first time in 2 years with Ravens visiting

The Ravens enter as 3.5-point road favorites, having won each of their last four games by at least 14 points.

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For just the second time all year, the Los Angeles Rams won’t be the betting favorites over their opponent. And for the first time since Week 17 of the 2017 season when the Rams rested their starters, they’re home underdogs.

That’s what happens when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens come to town. According to BetMGM, the Ravens are 3.5-point road favorites over the Rams in Week 12, which is a Monday night matchup on Nov. 25.

This comes as no surprise, given the way each team’s season has gone. Yes, they’re only separated by two games in the overall standings, but the Ravens are second in the NFL in scoring margin (plus-14.5), while the Rams are seventh (plus-4.5).

Baltimore also ranks first in points scored, second in yards and first in rushing across the board. The defense is playing extremely well, too, ranking sixth in points against and 14th in yards. The Rams are 10th in points and yards allowed.

Baltimore has been absolutely dominant in its last four games, too. The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in each game, beating the Seahawks by 14 points, the Patriots by 17, the Bengals by 36 and Houston by 34.

The Rams have a fighting chance with the league’s fifth-ranked rush defense, also ranking second in yards per carry allowed. However, they haven’t faced a quarterback with the skill set that Jackson has, which makes this a daunting matchup for the Rams.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

Kenny Stills: Texans need to move on from 41-7 loss to Ravens

After losing 41-7 to the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills says the team needs to be professional and move on.

The Houston Texans disappointed on Sunday. By losing 41-7 to the Baltimore Ravens, they watched their winning streak, top AFC South ranking and excitement vanish.

However, dwelling on the blowout loss won’t help anything. The Texans have to face the rival Indianapolis Colts on Thursday. As wide receiver Kenny Stills said, the team needs to move on.

“It is tough, but we are all professionals,” said Stills on Sunday. “At the end of the day, we have to continue to go out and do our job. Keep trying to execute. We have to put this one behind us and get ready for Thursday night.”

Stills recorded four receptions for 27 yards on Sunday. He, like the entirety of the team, did not perform as expected. The best way to rebound? Execute and put all their focus on beating the Colts.

Stills knows that. The question is, do the rest of the Texans?

Texans-Ravens odds: Marquee QB showdown in Baltimore

Previewing Sunday’s Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Week 11 matchup, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets

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The AFC South-leading Houston Texans (6-3) face the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at M&T Bank Stadium at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

We analyze the Texans-Ravens odds and sports betting lines, while providing betting tips and advice on this Week 11 NFL matchup.

Texans at Ravens: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

Looking to place a bet on this game or others? Sign up at BetMGM!

Houston is 3-2 straight up against the moneyline on the road.
Baltimore has hit the Over in six of nine games this season.
The Texans have hit the Under in five of nine games this season.
Baltimore is 5-0 straight up in five home games against Houston, but the Texans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Ravens.
The Ravens are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 33.3 points a game. Houston is eighth in scoring at 26.4 points a game. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in points allowed – Baltimore giving up 21 PPG and Houston allowing 21.2 PPG.
The teams have met just 10 times in their history with Baltimore winning eight.

Texans at Ravens: Key injuries

Several Texans were limited in practice this week, including OT Laremy Tunsil (shoulder), WR Will Fuller (hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (Hamstring), S Tashaun Gipson (back/wrist), OL Tytus Howard (knee) and LB Dylan Cole (knee). All are questionable.

The Ravens had two players who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday – WR Marquise Brown (ankle) and DT Michael Pierce (ankle). Both will likely be game-time decisions.

Texans at Ravens: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Baltimore 34, Houston 27

Moneyline (?)

For a team that is 6-3 and proved the ability to win on the road, the Texans (+165) are getting a pretty good return on investment for a win straight up, which is possible in this projected battle of quarterbacks. The Ravens force players to bet double the amount of return (-200), which makes betting on them a little too spendy. If you’re going to make a bet, a small wager on Houston is the way to go if you believe there is an upset brewing, but most people won’t feel comfortable betting $100 on the Ravens to win just $50.

Against the Spread (?)

This is a difficult number at 4½ points (-115 for bets on Houston, –106 on BALTIMORE) because this has the potential to be a shootout. If the Ravens get up by more than a touchdown late, they may try to take the air out of the ball which often leads to a meaningless score late in the game that keeps the final score closer than it should be. This is a tough call, but the Ravens have the horses to get the job done. Lay the points.

Over/Under (?)

This is a high number (49½ points) and the sportsbooks are almost daring bettors to take the Under, which is +110, while the Over is -134. This is a game that will feature two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Houston’s Deshaun Watson and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Both are capable of huge days and both defenses have allowed big games through the air (Houston has the 29th ranked pass defense and Baltimore is 20th). It will take seven TDs and at least one field goal to get over that number, but this game has all the earmarks of a shootout. Take the OVER and tune in late.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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3 NFL games to watch in Week 11: A MVP showdown in Baltimore and a Super Bowl 52 rematch

49ers take small dip in power rankings after stumble vs. Seahawks

The 49ers’ fall from the top of the NFL Wire power rankings wasn’t bad after they suffered their first loss of the year.

The 49ers were a 47-yard field goal away from beating the Seahawks on Monday night and maintaining an undefeated record. Instead, Chase McLaughlin’s kick hooked wide left (and then some), and the 49ers eventually lost to the Seahawks. The loss was enough to drop San Francisco one spot to No. 2 in the NFL Wire power rankings.

It’s not a surprise the 49ers finally dropped out of the top spot in Doug Farrar’s rankings. He’s had them there since they downed the Rams 20-7 in Week 6. Baltimore also had a dominant win over the Patriots, followed by a dominant win over the Bengals. There’s not a team playing better football than the Ravens going into Week 11.

The key for San Francisco is not letting losses pile up. Monday night was a heartbreaker, but a game they could have (should have?) won even without their two best pass catchers, George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders.

Farrar explained why the loss isn’t as bad as it seemed:

San Francisco’s drop from the undefeated isn’t that big a deal in the grand scheme of things — they lost to a very good team playing at its best (especially on defense) and did so seriously shorthanded. Kyle Shanahan’s team will try to get things back together against the Cardinals next week.

This is where things get more tough for the 49ers though. They face Arizona in Week 11, Green Bay (No. 5 in the rankings) in Week 12, and then Baltimore (No. 1) and New Orleans (No. 4) in back-to-back road games. Then they’re home for the Rams and Falcons before wrapping up the season in Seattle (No. 6).

With injuries piling up and the schedule getting tougher, it’s going to be an uphill climb for the 49ers to keep themselves ranked among the team’s elite. However, they’ll have ample opportunities to prove themselves worthy, and if things go right the rest of the way, they’ll have a real claim to be the NFL’s best team at the end of the 2019 season.

Through 16 starts, Lamar Jackson’s stats prove he’s the real deal

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has now played a full season’s worth of games, so now is the time to analyze how he’s done so far

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has hit a benchmark in his career. With nine regular-season games down in the 2019 season added to the seven he started last year, Jackson has finally started a full 16 games in the NFL. A full season’s worth of stats now on his resume allows us to better review how he’s done thus far.

Take a look at Jackson’s regular-season stats during his first 16 career starts:

Lamar Jackson passing stats:

Comp	Att	Comp%	Yds	TDs	TD%	INTs	INT%	Rating
267	425	62.8	3,237	21	4.9%	8	1.9%	94.8

Lamar Jackson rushing stats:

Att	Yds	YPC	TDs
225	1,258	5.59	10

While the amount of passing yards isn’t spectacular in today’s NFL, considering quarterbacks regularly throw for over 4,000 yards a season, Jackson’s passing stats are still impressive overall. It’s the best TD percentage since Joe Flacco’s 2014 campaign and the best passer rating of any Ravens quarterback in franchise history (with more than three games started). Considering Jackson was held back a bit by a more conservative offensive scheme during his rookie season, it’s even more impressive.

And that’s before we even get into the notion of Jackson as a runner. While Jackson often sees his rushing ability used to critique him as a quarterback, Jackson’s stats on the ground are impressive by themselves. If he were a running back, he’d likely be up for a Pro Bowl nomination on those stats alone. But when combined with his passing yards, Jackson would actually rank 50th in NFL history in single-season total offensive yards (rushing and passing yards combined) ahead of Peyton Manning’s 2004 campaign in which he was both a Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro quarterback.

Not too bad for a guy Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian said should switch to wide receiver. Or for a guy that’s only 22 years old and in the first 16 starts of his NFL career. Or even without any of those caveats . . . as Jackson compares favorably to some of the best players in NFL history.

First 16 career starts

Wins
Lamar Jackson (13)
Patrick Mahomes (12)

Rush Yds
Lamar Jackson (1,258)
LaDainian Tomlinson (1,236)

Passer Rtg
Lamar Jackson (94.4)
Tom Brady (90.1)

Yds per Att
Lamar Jackson (7.6)
Aaron Rodgers (7.5)

Comp Pct
Lamar Jackson (63%)
Drew Brees (61%)

— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) November 11, 2019

What’s the important takeaway here — and something so many of Jackson’s detractors seem to forget — is he’s still getting his feet underneath him in this league. Just like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, Jackson is still getting accustomed to playing quarterback in the NFL and he’s steadily improving while putting up solid early results.

In seven games last season, Jackson had a 58.2% completion rate. That number has jumped to 65.9% in the nine games he’s started this year. He’s thrown 15 touchdown passes this year (5.9%) compared to just six last season (3.5%). He’s improved his passer rating from 82.6 last season to 101.7 this year. He’s averaging 1.25 more yards per attempt while being sacked 2% less. That’s not even getting into his rushing numbers, which have also improved from last year.

It’s also important to look at what Jackson has meant for the entire team as well. While stats are a huge benchmark of individual performance, the reality is no team makes it to a Super Bowl without winning games. Though no team picks up a win thanks solely to one player, Jackson has been among the league’s best through his first 16 games, going 13-3.

Jackson has now been under the microscope for a full season’s worth of starts and it’s clear he’s here to stay.

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Updated look at Bills’ remaining strength of schedule

Buffalo Bills remaining stretch of schedule in 2019.

The Bills sit at 6-3 after their 19-16 loss to the Browns and their 2019 schedule down the stretch is much tougher.

So, how much tougher is it exactly?

Currently the Bills sit dead-center in the NFL.

Buffalo has the 16th hardest schedule remaining in the NFL. Left on Buffalo’s schedule, in order, are the Dolphins, Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots and Jets.

Combined, those teams are 32-31 overall this year with a .508 winning percentage.

Earlier this season, NFL analysts were critical of the Bills and their opponents. Now the Bills will have a chance to prove they can beat better teams.

With the Bills’ schedule in mind, let’s now compare that with the other teams currently in the AFC Wild Card and playoff picture. If Buffalo doesn’t get it done, things could go bad.

Here’s how the standings currently sit with team records and remaining strength of schedule.

AFC seeding:

New England Patriots (8-1, .469 – 21st hardest)
Baltimore Ravens (7-2, .556 – 7th)
Houston Texans (6-3, .554 – 9th)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4, .500 – 17th)
Buffalo Bills (6-3, .508 – 16th)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, .383 – 30th)
Oakland Raiders (5-4, .364 – 31st)
Indianapolis Colts (5-4, .531 – 13th)
Tennessee Titans (5-5, .611 – 3rd)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5, .446 – 25th)

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Bills playoff picture: Post-Week 10 recap of AFC teams ‘in the hunt’

The Bills’ loss to the Cleveland Browns hurt. All loses tend to do that in the NFL, but this one hurt a little more. The feeling that Buffalo let this one get away, combined with other teams around the AFC playoff picture scoring some wins of their …

The Bills’ loss to the Cleveland Browns hurt.

All loses tend to do that in the NFL, but this one hurt a little more. The feeling that Buffalo let this one get away, combined with other teams around the AFC playoff picture scoring some wins of their own, things didn’t go well for Western New York in Week 10.

Here’s a recap of the latest happenings in the AFC playoff picture:

AFC seeding:

New England Patriots (8-1)
Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Houston Texans (6-3)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Oakland Raiders (5-4)
Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)

In the hunt teams recap:

Playoff teams recap:

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