Tag: Ranking

Texas Football: Where the Longhorns rank in advanced analytics

Breaking down where the Texas Longhorns rank among the country in Expected Points over Average (EPA)? Plus a look at explosive plays.

Recently Longhorns Wire dove into the statistical rankings for Texas this year. Now we use the advanced statistical model known as EPA. It stands for Expected Points over Average. Much like the baseball stat WAR (wins above replacement). While that measures an individuals contribution to the team, EPA is more of measuring how efficient the entire team as a whole. It breaks down into categories (rush, pass, success rate, overall EPA).

These models use historical scoring odds to estimate the value of each spot on the field based on down and distance. If a team runs a play that improves its chances of scoring next, that’s worth positive EPA. Big plays—such as a 40-yard completion or a conversion on 3rd and long—are worth more EPA than smaller ones, like a 5 yard gain on first down.

EPA Margin

Team Margin Rank
Oklahoma 0.129 16
Oklahoma State 0.063 34
West Virginia 0.054 36
Iowa State 0.049 37
Texas 0.037 45
Baylor -0.015 72
Kansas State -0.017 73
Texas Christian -0.024 78
Texas Tech -0.062 92
Kansas -0.271 122

Texas Offense EPA Ranks

Category Number Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Offensive EPA 0.014 3rd 64th
Play success rate 38.2% 4th 80th
Rush EPA -0.105 6th 91st
Pass EPA 0.120 2nd 43rd

Texas Defense EPA Ranks

Category Number Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Defensive EPA -0.064 5th 35th
Success Rate 41.9% 8th 77th
Rush EPA -0.239 1st 13th
Pass EPA 0.072 8th 65th

The Texas Longhorns rush defense has been one of the better aspects of the defense as of late. The EPA rankings confirm what we have seen on the field as of late. They will face the 20th most efficient run teams in the Iowa State Cyclones on Nov. 27. They average 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. The Longhorns counter with a defense that allows 3.9 which is 15th in the country.

Next we dive into situational statistics

Pages: Page 1, Page 2

NFL strength of schedule: Saints have a clear path to the playoffs

The New Orleans Saints remaining strength of schedule ranks among the easiest around the league, as well as the very competitive NFC South.

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How can the New Orleans Saints reach the playoffs? The snarky answer is simply answering that they have to keep winning their games, but the structure of their second-half schedule sets them up for more success than other teams around the league.

To find out exactly how it shakes out, Nick Woltjon crunched the numbers over at Bills Wire, and his results rank the Saints strength of schedule among the NFL’s easiest remaining slates:

  1. Falcons (.644)
  2. Jaguars (.615)
  3. 49ers (.610)
  4. Bills (.579)
  5. Rams (.576)
  6. Panthers (.569)
  7. Broncos (.522)
  8. Colts (.540)
  9. Titans (.538)
  10. Cardinals (.529)
  11. Eagles (.525)
  12. Jets (.517)
  13. Giants (.517)
  14. Texans (.508)
  15. Packers (.507)
  16. Bengals (.500)
  17. Chiefs (.492)
  18. Vikings (.485)
  19. Chargers (.478)
  20. Bucs (.475)
  21. Dolphins (.470)
  22. Lions (.470)
  23. Saints (.464)
  24. Football Team (.464)
  25. Steelers (.456)
  26. Ravens (.455)
  27. Cowboys (.450)
  28. Seahawks (.450)
  29. Bears (.429)
  30. Raiders (.424)
  31. Patriots (.418)
  32. Browns (.398)

Of their eight remaining matchups, just two opponents have earned winning records: the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (this week’s matchup) and the 7-1 Kansas Chiefs (who visit New Orleans on Dec. 20, likely in front of 15,000 roaring fans). The teams facing the Saints in their other six games are a combined 17-29-1 (including two tilts with the 2-6 Atlanta Falcons).

If things break the Saints’ way — if Michael Thomas can return soon and pick up where he left off in 2019, and if the defense can just settle in and play up to their usual standards — they could go on a tear. But it all starts with upsetting the Buccaneers on the road Sunday night.

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Alvin Kamara is the NFL’s scrimmage yards king through Week 7

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and is building his case for 2020 Offensive Player of the Year.

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Let’s hope everyone else is content playing for second place, because it doesn’t look like anyone will catch New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara. The Offensive Player of the Year candidate leads the NFL with 824 yards from scrimmage through seven weeks, and he’s played just in six games after resting during the Saints’ bye.

Defenses haven’t had answers for Kamara, whether he’s attacking them through the air (gaining 460 receiving yards on 46 receptions) or on the ground (picking up 364 rushing yards off of just 75 carries). He’s averaging more than 137 scrimmage yards per game, the highest number of his career. It puts him on pace for 2,197 total yards of offense if he can keep it up through 16 games.

And he just might come close, if he can remain healthy. Kamara has the NFL’s longest active streak with five games of 100-plus scrimmage yards. He’s bobbing and weaving as well as ever, forcing as many missed tackles as a receiver (10) in six games this year as he totaled in 14 matchups last season.

Oh, and he’s tied with eight other players for the league lead in total touchdowns scored (7). If he maintains that pace, it will tie his personal best (18). He’s a monster.

Here’s the top five NFL players in yards gained from scrimmage this year:

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Dynamic Kyle duo Trask and Pitts remain on ESPN’s Heisman Watch

The dynamic duo of QB Kyle Trask and TE Kyle Pitts remain in the projected running for the Heisman Trophy but lost some ground after Week 6.

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Though each of their respective stocks took a bit of a dip following Florida’s first loss of the season to Texas A&M last weekend, Florida’s duo of Kyles remains on the ESPN Heisman Watch going into Week 7.

Quarterback Kyle Trask was ranked fifth behind Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, Ohio State‘s Justin Fields and Alabama‘s Mac Jones.

Alabama running back Najee Harris was ranked sixth, and Gators tight end Kyle Pitts rounded out the watch list at No. 7.

Here’s what ESPN’s voters had to say about the pair’s odds of taking home this year’s Heisman Trophy.

5. Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Total points: 22 (first-place votes: 0)

Notable: The Gators suffered their first loss of the season, but Trask did his part to give Florida a chance to win. He threw for 312 yards and four touchdowns — giving him 14 on the year in only three games.

Quotable: “He’s the total package. He has a big, 6-5 frame. He can make every throw, from showing touch on short routes to showing strength on go routes.” — Mel Kiper Jr.

7. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Total points: 11 (first-place votes: 0)

Notable: Pitts had another strong performance in an upset loss to Texas A&M on Saturday, scoring a touchdown to run up his tally to seven TDs on the season.

Quotable: “He’s a true matchup piece in the NFL, and even though Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth is a more complete prospect, Pitts is making a real case out of the gate for TE1 in the 2021 class.” — Todd McShay

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Notre Dame eighth in USA TODAY 1-126 rankings

Paul Myerberg has his latest 1-126 rankings out for FBS football and Notre Dame shows up three spots lower there than they do on the USA TODAY Coaches Poll.

Paul Myerberg ranks every FBS team in college football on a weekly basis during the season and puts them all out there, 1-126.

In recent weeks he’s had to expand his rankings as every conference has decided to ultimately return to action this year and all but four independent programs have decided to play football for at least some amount of games.

With that, Myerberg ranked 1-126 this week and Notre Dame finds itself three spots lower in his poll than they did in this week’s Amway Coaches Poll Powered by USA TODAY.

Myerberg’s top ten:

Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida and Georgia come in 1-5.  Then it’s Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Central Florida and Miami 6-10.

In that group, Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are yet to play any games as they check in before Notre Dame shows up.

Besides Clemson at the top spot, North Carolina checks in as Notre Dame’s highest ranked opponent at 18 while Pitt comes in next at 27.

Saints reveal Week 3 uniform combination for SNF vs. Packers

The New Orleans Saints revealed their uniform combination for Week 3’s game on “Sunday Night Football” against the Green Bay packers.

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The New Orleans Saints will be wearing black jerseys with matching black pants when they kick off with the Green Bay Packers on “Sunday Night Football.” It’s the second time in three weeks that New Orleans will be using this uniform combination, having gone with their “Color Rush” alternates in Week 2’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Maybe this will help get them back to their winning ways.

We have to ask: were their gold pants lost at LAX after last year’s road loss to the Los Angeles Rams? The Saints haven’t worn gold pants again since that game, when the Rams went with their away uniforms, forcing the Saints into black jerseys. Since then, they have rotated between the black-on-black and white-on-white looks, with “Color Rush” used as often as the NFL will allow it. It would be nice to mix that up now and then with a color combo that’s been a staple of Saints football the last 15 years.

And for the superstitious: we’ve put together the total numbers for every combination used in the Sean Payton era, all the way back to 2006:

  1. White jerseys, white pants: 5-1 (.833)
  2. “Color Rush” alternates: 6-3 (.667)
  3. “Black and Gold” throwbacks: 2-1 (.667)
  4. Black jerseys, gold pants: 23-13 (.639)
  5. Black jerseys, black pants: 42-27 (.609)
  6. White jerseys, black pants: 38-25 (.603)
  7. White jerseys, gold pants: 31-24 (.564)

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Wearing their Sunday best: Saints announce first uniform combo of 2020

The New Orleans Saints will wear black home jerseys and matching black pants in their Week 1 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Make sure to follow the dress code, even if you’re watching from home: the New Orleans Saints announced that they will be wearing black home jerseys with matching black pants in their Sunday kickoff against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, going with their most-common uniform combination from the 2019 season.

The Saints went 5-2 in the black-on-black look a year ago, so they’ll be hoping to recapture some of that same success in their season opener. Superstitious fans put a lot of faith in these sort of things, so here is how the win-loss record shook out for each combo in 2019:

  1. “Color Rush” alternates: 3-0 (1.000)
  2. White jerseys, white pants: 5-1 (.833)
  3. Black jerseys, black pants: 5-2 (.714)
  4. Black jerseys, gold pants: 0-1 (.000)

And for the curious: here are the total win-loss records for each uniform combination worn back to 2006 (except for the funky gold jerseys worn during a 2002 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, which Cameron Jordan wants to try out):

  1. White jerseys, white pants: 5-1 (.833)
  2. “Color Rush” alternates: 6-2 (.750)
  3. “Black and Gold” throwbacks: 2-1 (.667)
  4. Black jerseys, gold pants: 23-13 (.639)
  5. White jerseys, black pants: 38-25 (.603)
  6. Black jerseys, black pants: 41-27 (.603)
  7. White jerseys, gold pants: 31-24 (.564)

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Saints uniforms snubbed in recent NFL power rankings

The New Orleans Saints were massively disrespected in the latest NFL power rankings at Uni Watch, grading teams on their looks and fashion.

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Don’t look now, but the New Orleans Saints took one on the chin in the latest NFL power rankings from Uni Watch’s Paul Lukas. And they were hit in the most critical variable in all of sports: their uniforms.

Sure, Lukas credits the Saints with a nice color palette; it’s a timeless look that goes well with anything (as black does), and that’s changed little in the team’s history, except for varying shades of gold (which at times has looked more like khaki). However, he took a shot at the Saints for not taking full advantage of that combination, ranking them 18th in the league:

In theory, the Saints are a good-looking team with very solid uniform elements. In practice, they wear mono-black way too often — a whopping seven times in 2019. Such a pointless look for a party town like New Orleans. Look, it’s not that hard: Wear the black jersey with the gold pants! That move alone would let the Saints jump at least half a dozen spots on this list.

But there’s good news: the Saints still ranked second-best in the NFC South, behind the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at 14th) and well ahead of the rebuilding Carolina Panthers (25th) and bottom-feeding Atlanta Falcons (31st). Just like in reality, it’s a two-horse race for the 2020 NFC South title.

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Bleacher Report ranks Alabama as No. 1 team in SEC

Bleacher Report ranked the SEC teams as the conference-only schedule will be used in 2020. Alabama makes the top of the list.

Despite the 2020 season being unlike anything college football fans have seen in the past, one thing remains the same: Alabama being mentioned at, or near, the top.

A team of writers from Bleacher Report ranked SEC teams from best to worst on a point system; the top-ranked team got 14 points, and it went down by one as the rankings got lower. The final rankings were decided based on total number of points.

Here’s how they ranked:

1. Alabama (68 points)

2. Georgia (67)

3. Florida (58)

4. LSU (57)

5. Texas A&M (49)

6. Auburn (44)

7. Tennessee (41)

8. Kentucky (35)

9. South Carolina (31)

10. Ole Miss (24)

11. Mississippi State (21)

12. Missouri (15)

13. Arkansas (8)

14. Vanderbilt (7)

When explaining why Alabama was the top team, David Kenyon did not hide the idea that the Crimson Tide are set to be back on top.

“The offense has several highly regarded NFL prospects in left tackle Alex Leatherwood, receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle and running back Najee Harris,” said Kenyon. “Three other starters are back on the offensive line, along with tight end Miller Forristall.

And on defense, the Tide have a sturdy front seven led by defensive end LaBryan Ray and linebacker Dylan Moses. Junior cornerback Patrick Surtain II highlights the secondary.

The major question for Alabama is whether Mac Jones—who replaced Tua Tagovailoa after his season-ending hip injury—or prized freshman Bryce Young will start at quarterback. Jones holds an early edge thanks to his experience and the limited offseason, but it’s possible Young closes the gap in fall camp.”

If you want to take a look at who Alabama will likely putting on the field for this 2020 season, you can check out our projected depth charts for the offense and defense.

Roll Tide Wire will keep you updated on all things Alabama football as the 2020 season approaches.

 

 

Marcus Williams among 8 Saints players on Top 101 list

The New Orleans Saints had eight players featured on a list of the top 101 best NFL players in 2020, including free safety Marcus Williams.

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The NFL released its annual Top 100 Players ranking as voted on by active players themselves, and the New Orleans Saints tied the Baltimore Ravens for the most total selections in the entire league (seven each).

Interestingly, another list breaking down the best players in the game today comes from Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield. They recognized eight Saints as belonging in the top tier of NFL talent. However, they left out cornerback Marshon Lattimore (ranked at No. 76 on the NFL’s list) and running back Alvin Kamara (No. 42) while including center Erik McCoy, free safety Marcus Williams, and left tackle Terron Armstead. Here’s where each Saints player finished in Touchdown Wire’s rankings:

  • C Erik McCoy, No. 96
  • DE Cameron Jordan, No. 75
  • FS Marcus Williams, No. 54
  • LT Terron Armstead, No. 51
  • LB Demario Davis, No. 43
  • RT Ryan Ramczyk, No. 29
  • QB Drew Brees, No. 22
  • WR Michael Thomas, No. 7

Jordan being listed so low is an interesting choice. He’s not just one of the lower-ranked edge defenders overall, he’s one of the lowest-ranked members of his own team, which doesn’t match up with his consistent production (which Farrar and Schofield pointed out in their writeup). It’s tough to buy that he’s not a top-five player on the Saints’ roster.

Still, it’s great to see Williams and Armstead get their due credit. Except for a few high-profile mistakes in coverage, Williams has held down one of the toughest jobs in the NFL. He’s created more interceptions than any other Saints defensive back from 2010 to 2019, and he just started playing in 2017. Armstead is the most physically gifted member of the offensive line, and has put in the work at refining his technique to match it. He just needs to stay healthy long enough to catch more of the national spotlight.

So there isn’t much to nitpick on this list, except for Jordan’s 50-spots-or-so too-low placement. What’s up with that?

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