Tag: projections

The Big 12 Championship scenarios and how Texas gets in

When it comes to the Big 12 Championship game, there is still a lot to play out over the next four weeks. So how does it all play out for UT

Texas’ game for this weekend may have been moved to Dec. 12, but there is still plenty of contests to keep an eye on this weekend. The Bedlam series taking place on Nov. 21 has crucial Big 12 Championship game implications. The same can be said for the Kansas State-Iowa State matchup being dubbed “Farmageddon.”

How could this potentially all break down? Longhorns Wire walks you through each scenario and how Texas could be involved in the Big 12 Championship game. The latest FPI rankings have the Longhorns and Sooners as the mostly likely to throw down in Arlington on Dec. 19 at AT&T Stadium.

[listicle id=26960]

Texas Longhorns path to the Big 12 Championship Game using FPI

The Longhorns are currently sitting in the thick of the title game race. So how does Texas make it to the dance?

A week from Saturday the Texas Longhorns begin their final stretch of the 2020 college football season. Continue reading “Texas Longhorns path to the Big 12 Championship Game using FPI”

Where will the Gators play their bowl game? Here’s USA TODAY’s latest projection

The winner of UF vs UGA will likely play in the SEC championship game and could still be an at-large contender with two losses.

[jwplayer VsfSdx04]

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by USA TODAY Sports and has been republished in its entirety below. 

Cincinnati’s ascent into the College Football Playoff race is getting hard to ignore. The Bearcats keep dominating a schedule full of quality teams and doesn’t looking like they’re slowing down soon.

While there may not be any top-tier teams in the American Athletic to match Power Five conferences, there are enough quality opponents to boost Cincinnati’s profile. The Big 12 is already without an unbeaten team and the Pac-12 is scheduled to play four fewer games against a schedule that isn’t much different than the American.

For now, Oregon holds the fourth position behind Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. More will be known when the Ducks finally take the field Saturday, but the Bearcats are absolutely in the thick of the race.

[lawrence-related id=27378,27376]

Another game that likely will shape the debate is this week’s showdown between Georgia and Florida. The winner will likely play in the SEC championship game and could still be an at-large contender with two losses or create some chaos by beating likely opponent Alabama.

There was some movement at the top this week. Losses by Oklahoma State and Michigan knocked them out of the New Year’s Six with Oklahoma and Texas A&M moving in.

The bowl lineup for this postseason stands at 37 games with the status of the Las Vegas Bowl uncertain. Teams in bold have accepted berths.

[lawrence-related id=27351,27340,27323,27321,27317]

USA TODAY Sports’ bowl predictions have Gators playing for peaches

There is still a ways to go but after Week 7 of college football USA TODAY Sports projects the Florida Gators to play in the Peach Bowl.

[jwplayer FpdiEnjh-er0jUifI]

Editors note: This article was originally published by USA TODAY Sports and has been republished in its entirety below. 

The College Football Playoff outlook changed Saturday night. Yes, Alabama beat Georgia. That wasn’t unexpected. However, the potential for the Bulldogs winning the rematch in the SEC championship game became less clear. The Crimson Tide’s offense was too much for them.

Georgia can still run the table in its remaining games – the only ranked opponent left is No. 8 Florida on Nov. 7. But without a conference title, it’s hard to see a compelling argument for them in the playoff unless at least two of the Power Five conference champions are clearly inferior.

[lawrence-related id=26303,26284]

The biggest beneficiary of Saturday night is Oregon. The Ducks will only play six conference games and a Pac-12 championship game — if they make it that far. None of their scheduled opponents is currently ranked. How would a 7-0 Oregon stack up against a 9-2 Georgia with its only losses to Alabama? That’s sure to be an interesting debate if we reach that point.

There’s also the American Athletic to consider. Cincinnati and SMU are the league’s only unbeatens. They play Saturday with the winner taking a big step forward in the playoff race. It’s conceivable either could make the field with an 11-0 record given the overall strength of the league this year being comparable to the Pac-12 and Big 12.

[lawrence-related id=26288,26274]

For now, the projected spot in the playoff behind Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State goes to Oregon. The Ducks don’t start until Nov. 7, so it will still be some time before they can be assessed.

The rest of the postseason has been cleared up with the NCAA waiving any win requirement for bowl eligibility. No replacement teams should be needed as conferences are expected to fulfill their bowl allotments.

[lawrence-related id=26272,26218,26149,26090]

Florida’s outlook is Peachy in latest bowl projections from CBS Sports

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports pegged the Florida Gators for the Peach Bowl in his latest college football bowl projections published Monday.

[jwplayer FpdiEnjh-er0jUifI]

We are not quite halfway through the 2020 college football schedule but it is never too early to start thinking about the postseason and CBS Sports did just that, publishing their College Football Playoff picks as well as their bowl projections on Monday.

The Florida Gators have been up and down in these projections this season, but since its loss to the Texas A&M Aggies two weekends ago, they have slipped out of CFP contention and into consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl game. UF was named a possibility for the Peach and Orange Bowls earlier in the year, and the latest outlook puts them in the former.

According to CBS Sports, Florida would meet the Penn State Nittany Lions on Jan. 1, 2021, in Atlanta Georgia, with both teams placed in the game as at-large bids. And instead of the Gators tasting oranges in Miami, the Hurricanes and the Georgia Bulldogs would face off on Jan. 2 in the Orange Bowl.

However, all of this is way up in the air as the nation continues to navigate through the coronavirus pandemic, plus the imminent inclusion of the Big Ten and Pac-12 into the competition as well as the typical ins-and-outs of a college football season. While the Gators are not quite projected as high as the fanbase prefers, in many ways, the team still controls its own destiny moving forward.

[lawrence-related id=26288,26274,26272,26218,26149]

ESPN’s Bill Connelly gives win projections for Week 4 SEC matchups

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ analytics system, released his game breakdowns for each of the seven SEC matchups.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ analytics system, released his game breakdowns for each of the seven SEC matchups during Saturday’s first day of competition for the conference.

Florida plays Ole Miss and new coach Lane Kiffin to open its season after the SEC shuffled schedules to adjust to a 10-game, conference-only schedule, and the numbers like the Gators to start Year 3 under coach Dan Mullen 1-0.

SP+ projection: Florida by 15.0 (34.2-19.2)
Florida covers if … a new pass-rusher is ready. The Gators return most of last year’s defense but lose rush end Jonathan Greenard, and the inaugural Lane Kiffin Rebels’ offense could be dangerous if Florida can’t get to the QB and get off the field on passing downs.
Ole Miss covers if … its newish secondary beats Florida’s newish receiving corps. Ole Miss returns only three of last year’s top six DBs, while the Gators return two of their top six WRs. No one doubts Florida’s talent, but Ole Miss has an opportunity to render UF inefficient.
Also noteworthy is Connelly’s breakdown of Georgia, who also faces a first-year coach in Arkansas’ Sam Pittman.
The Bulldogs are heavy favorites against the Razorbacks, and here’s what the analytics say.
SP+ projection: Georgia by 27.0 (36.3-9.2)
Georgia covers if … the starting QB is strong. Be it JT Daniels or
D’Wan Mathis, the quarterback of choice might be the most important player in college football this year. Georgia’s defense is going to be absurd, but a disappointing offense has to rebound, and Arkansas could offer it a fast start.
Arkansas covers if … Georgia’s offense isn’t ready. New Hogs defensive coordinator (and former Mizzou head coach) Barry Odom knows Georgia’s personnel well, and if last year’s UGA offense shows up, this could be a slog. It will be an easy Georgia win regardless, but maybe more of the 28-7 variety.
There are still lots of questions about both teams, and the answers to those questions will likely decide the division. But we’ll get our first sample from both in games that shouldn’t be particularly close.
[lawrence-related id=24151,24156,24109,24107,24082,24068]
[vertical-gallery id=23934]

What ESPN simulation, FPI projects for 2020 Bills season

ESPN’s FPI and simulation projection for the Buffalo Bills in 2020.

[jwplayer xqUrAatf-ThvAeFxT]

ESPN has run a simulation of the entire NFL season using their Football Power Index (FPI) which has the Bills ranked No. 10 ahead of the 2020 regular season. In addition, the ESPN staff broke down their preview of the Bills following the FPI rankings.

The season projection has the Bills winning the AFC East with an 11-5 record, making the playoffs for the second consecutive season and making it to the second round of the postseason with a win. 

The process employed is based on factors including expected starting quarterbacks, past performance, returning starters and projected win totals. These all combine to form a strength rating for each team to help predict game outcomes.

Here is the FPI projections for the Bills:

Overall ranking: 10
Offensive ranking: 19
Defensive ranking: 2
Special teams ranking: 18

Total wins: 8.7
AFC East title chances: 39.3%
Chances to make playoffs: 59.7%
Super Bowl chances: 3%
2021 draft pick: No. 23

FPI’s strength of schedule rank: 10

This year’s simulation is No. 3,869 out of 20,000 possible outcomes, the results of which also factor in NFL analyst Mike Clay’s individual player projections and stat leaders during the season.

These predictions may not account for some additional wins the team could pick up during actual games played, nor the scope of variables that can impact the team’s opponents’ seasons. Such was the case this week for Denver Broncos who lost Von Miller for the year due to injury. The simulation may not be perfect in its predictions, but suffice to say it could prove to be more accurate than other sports prediction-methods.

While the rankings and where the team might fall in the division may differ slightly by list, one consistent prediction is that the Bills will return to the postseason.

Let the games begin.

[lawrence-related id=69538,69516,69503,69500]

ESPN projects 8.5 wins for Florida Gators football this fall using SP+ analytics

Florida is projected to win 8.5 of its 10 games this year. Other teams projected at 8.5 wins are Cincinnati and divisional rival Georgia.

[jwplayer OSsf8U3L]

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the proprietor of the SP+ sports analytics system, has released his system’s projected win totals for all FBS teams participating this season. Connelly released the preseason SP+ rankings earlier this month, in which the Gators were ranked fifth.

As opposed to pure projected win totals, Connelly used what he calls “marginal win totals.” This means that teams that are favored by more than 7.5 points are projected to win, teams that are underdogs by more than 7.5 points are projected to lose, and anything in between is a tossup, meaning they are credited for 0.5 wins.

With this in mind, Florida is projected to win 8.5 of its 10 games this year. Other teams projected at 8.5 wins are Cincinnati and divisional rival Georgia, who the Gators haven’t beaten since 2016.

Florida and Georgia are both projected top-five teams per SP+, but 10-game SEC schedules will leave you with quite a bit of work to do. Georgia heads to Alabama, hosts Auburn and faces Florida in Jacksonville; Florida also hosts LSU and travels to Texas A&M. This could be a fascinating CFP race, as there really might not be more than two or three Power Five teams finishing with zero or one losses. We could theoretically see a three-loss No. 4 seed.

As Connelly mentioned, expanded conference schedules likely mean more difficult schedules for most teams, so it’s possible there will be a wider margin for error for teams trying to make the playoff this fall. With the Gators projected to lose only one or two games, they could find themselves squarely in that race come the end of the regular season.

[lawrence-related id=22654,22412,22224,22222,21976,21961]

[vertical-gallery id=20711]

[vertical-gallery id=20730]

Locked on Longhorns: ‘New NCAA rules for 2020 college football season’

Locked on Longhorns Podcast discusses the new NCAA rules. Plus an update to the running backs and 2021 RB names top four schools.

Locked on Longhorns Podcast on Wednesday started off the show discussing the new NCAA rule changes for 2020. With the targeting rule changing, does it make sense? What are some of the new guidelines for officials? What about the restricted area? Cami and Patrick go over a handful of the new rules and how they impact the upcoming season.

Head coach Tom Herman has been reluctant to name a starter at running back. So will there be a starter or is this running back by committee? Will they ride the hot hand? Plus who do we think sees the most action against UTEP?

ESPN released their updated SP+ rankings. Where do they see Texas finishing? What are their rankings for offense and defense? Are they reasonable. Plus we discussed where USA TODAY Sports is projecting the Big 12 to finish.

Texas 2021 target at running back LJ Johnson finally revealed his top four schools for his commitment. Any surprises? The Longhorns also offered 2022 USC commit. Plus the award named after Longhorns Legend Earl Campbell named their watchlist. Who made the list? We breakdown the list from a Big 12 perspective.

Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift projected to top 1,100 total yards

Swift’s total gets a nice boost from his receiving prowess

When the Detroit Lions took D’Andre Swift early in the second round (No. 35 overall) of the 2020 NFL Draft, immediately fans started speculating what type of immediate impact the former Georgia star can have on the team’s lackluster rushing attack.

Sometimes it’s good to look at what the unbiased, unvested interests see. That’s where the good folks at The Huddle come in, and they are pretty bullish on Swift being a success. Their aggregate fantasy football projections have Swift rushing for 880 yards and catching 30 passes for 260 yards. The total of 1,140 yards from scrimmage ranks Swift third amongst rookie RBs, behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City and the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor.

Of course, Swift has been battling injury throughout training camp and his health status is uncertain entering the final couple days of training camp. The lack of work this summer could cut into his workload in the regular season, especially if Kerryon Johnson can stay healthy.

Dominate your fantasy football league with TheHuddle.com. Custom rankings! Sleepers! New customers, take 20% this year’s subscription. Order now!