What do Next Gen Stats tell us about Dolphins WR room?
The greatest divide in football may not be one between any two teams or fanbases. It is not between offensive linemen and pass rushers. Cornerbacks or wide receivers. No — the greatest divide in all of football very well may be the two polarizing schools of thought that either film or analytics is the best way to process information. The best of the best in the game of football are able to toe the line between both ideologies; understanding that sometimes the context of film can provide the best possible insight but that there are numbers and metrics available to help make the best decisions en masse.
As it pertains to the Miami Dolphins passing game, there is much debate and much interest in how all of the pieces of the puzzle will fit with Chan Gailey’s offense being installed in 2020. The 2019 season was slow to start but by the end of the year the Dolphins were scoring points well enough — just not well enough to save coordinator Chad O’Shea’s job.
Here’s what we know about Gailey’s system: it is going to stretch the field horizontally and stress defenders to cover every square inch of the field. The Dolphins are expected to work a lot of quick game as a result and they’re also expected to implement a load of run-pass options into the game plan — that was a staple of Tua Tagovailoa’s play at Alabama and RPOs were something Miami gravitated towards more as the 2019 season went on.
How do Miami’s pass catchers fit this model? Next Gen Stats can provide us with a few clues.
Albert Wilson will be right at home
The Dolphins spacing the field and throwing quick plays into the hands of Wilson — the quicker the ball is out, the better. Wilson commanded the fifth highest cushion among qualifying receivers in all of football last year with 6.9 yards of separation at the snap per play. Only Ted Ginn, Corey Davis, Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley got more space to work at the snap last season.
And Wilson in turn converted that into the 6th-highest level of separation in the NFL at the time of his receptions (3.5 yards) thanks in large part to having the NFL’s third lowest average air yards per target at 5.2 yards.
Wilson got space, he ran quick routes and was targeted in underneath areas before being asked to convert to run after catch — exactly what you’ll ask him to do in Gailey’s horizontal spread.
Towering presence on the boundary
The Dolphins boast two looming bodies on the outside with 6-foot-3 DeVante Parker and 6-foot-5 Preston Williams. As expected with bigger bodies, separation at the catch was more difficult to come by for both players — the two Dolphins receivers were tied for the third lowest average separation per reception (2.1 yards) in the entire NFL. Ideal? Not necessarily. But consider this: Parker caught more passes in “contested” situations (a defender within one yard of him as the ball arrives) than any other receiver in football last season was was credited with the second-most receiving yards in contested situations in 2019.
So yes, separation won’t be easy to come by with Parker and Williams’ style of play and size — but these two know how to use it and can win real estate for their quarterback at the catch point.
Run after the catch may be a problem
Tua Tagovailoa thrived at Alabama because his receivers were able to break off big gains on quick hitters. Will the Dolphins be able to do the same with this cast of characters? Don’t hold your breath. Here’s how the Dolphins’ primary pass catchers from 2019 stacked up in average yards after the catch:
Preston Williams — 2.4 yards (5th worst total in the NFL)
DeVante Parker — 4.2 yards (76th among qualifying targets)
Albert Wilson — 4.3 yards (74th among qualifying targets)
Mike Gesicki — 3.9 yards (6th worst among qualifying TEs)
This group can be plenty of things, but they’re going to have to learn some new tricks if they want to be considered explosive after the catch.
