NFL Week 17 Pick ‘Em: What a wild year

The picks are in! NFL Week 17 picks straight up, against the spread and over/unders.

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They say it’s not how you start it’s how you finish. Unfortunately my start was so poor there’s no coming back to a respectable record. Nevertheless, we persist.

To the picks! (Betting lines provided by Tipico Sportsbook.)

49ers favored big at home vs. Atlanta Falcons in game with big playoff implications

The #49ers are huge favorites against the Falcons in a game with big NFC playoff implications.

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Sunday’s Week 15 showdown between the 49ers and Falcons has big-time playoff implications, but that’s not apparent based on the point spread. Tipico Sportsbook has San Francisco favored by 9.5 points at home against a 6-7 Atlanta team that would pass the 49ers in the standings with a win.

However, a deeper look at the Falcons beyond their record shows a team the 49ers should beat by a couple scores. While Atlanta has six wins, none of them have come against a team that’s above .500.  Their strength of victory (the winning percentage of teams they’ve beat) is .333 – second-worst in the league behind the Bears at .308.

Atlanta has wins over the Jets, Giants, Jaguars and Panthers. They beat the Saints in the game Jameis Winston got hurt, and they knocked off the Dolphins during Miami’s 1-6 start. The Falcons rank No. 26 in offensive points and No. 24 in total yards. Defensively they’re No. 28 in points and No. 25 in yards.

Football Outsiders ranks them dead last in total DVOA thanks to the 30th-ranked offense, 29th-ranked defense and 30th-ranked special teams. They are not a very good team.

While the 49ers have had their struggles, they’ve righted the ship lately and look much closer to the team they expected to be when the season started. If San Francisco continues generating takeaways on defense and not committing turnovers on offense, they should run away with this one, making the 9.5-point spread look a lot more reasonable.

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2021 Week 5 NFL pick ’em: Parity is making NFL picks harder

The picks are in! NFL Week 5 picks straight up, against the spread and over/unders.

If only picking games straight up was a good way of building a bankroll.

While I figured out over/unders a little bit last week, the struggles against the spread continued. Parity in the NFL is high this year which is making it tougher, but it’s just sort of a strange year in the league. Nevertheless, there’s plenty of weeks to bounce back.

Odds are provided by Tipico.

To the picks!

Lines released for nine 2021 Notre Dame games

How many games should Notre Dame be the underdog in this year?

Can’t get enough Fighting Irish football and find yourself counting down the days until the 2021 season kicks off at Florida State on September 5?

You’ll be happy to know that point spreads for some of the 2021 games are coming out as South Point Las Vegas has released the spreads for nine of Notre Dame’s 12 regular-season games this year.

The Irish are only the underdog in one of the nine listed contests but have some incredibly thin lines in games being played at Notre Dame Stadium, where they haven’t lost since the second game of the 2017 season.

Here is what South Point Las Vegas has for the 2021 Fighting Irish in mid-May.  My takeaways can be found at the bottom.

CFN’s Notre Dame-North Carolina Preview/Pick

What happens in mere hours in Chapel Hill? CFN has taken their best guess at the Notre Dame-North Carolina contest on Black Friday.

As we’re awaiting kickoff now in just over an hour as I sit to type this out and before I go finishing putting up more Christmas decorations, why not take a look at the Notre Dame-North Carolina preview at College Football News?

Pete Fiutak always does a good job knowing the world of college football and even in 2020, that’s been no different.

You can read his entire preview for Notre Dame and North Carolina by clicking here.  But if you just want the cliff notes version, check out some notes below.

  • Cites the Notre Dame run defense as the number one reason Notre Dame will win
  • Mentions North Carolina’s great statistical offense but does question what great defense they’ve played so far as Clemson, Miami and Pitt, the three best defenses other than Notre Dame in the ACC, have been avoided by Carolina.
  • Points out besides Clemson, who scored 33 regulation points, Notre Dame hasn’t played a second really good offense.
  • Says North Carolina doesn’t know how to play a complete game but for 23 minutes or so can be as good as anyone in the nation.
  • Fiutak calls for a Notre Dame win by less than a touchdown and says the Irish offense will barrel it’s way to nearly 500 total yards.

Fiutak’s prediction:  Notre Dame 40, North Carolina 34.

He also ranks the must-watch level of this game to Thanksgiving dinner items which is worth checking out on it’s own.

OK, back to hanging decorations I go to avoid stress-eating before kickoff.

Michigan State football favored over Miami, underdog to Michigan, Ohio State per BetMGM

BetMGM has released future odds for key games in the 2020 college football season

The college football season is a bit up in the air right now due to the uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic, but that isn’t stopping sports books from releasing point spreads!

Michigan State is featured in three of BetMGM’s key games during the 2020 college football season. Mel Tucker’s Spartans are currently favored in their home matchup with Miami (Fl) and are underdogs against Michigan and Ohio State. The point spreads are:

  • MSU -2.5 vs Miami
  • MSU +6.5 vs. UofM
  • MSU +17.5 vs. Ohio State

Odds via BetMGM. Access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9 p.m. ET.

It has been pretty clear the sports books aren’t expecting much from MSU in Mel Tucker’s first season. Season win totals have been set as low as 4.5 and as high as 6. Many fans have said that Tucker guiding the Spartans to a bowl game in his first season would be a success. Considering the talent that left after the 2019 season, how late Tucker and his staff were hired and COVID-19, that sounds about right.

It’s a little surprising that Michigan State is favored over Miami, although the Hurricanes are far from a stable program right now. The similarities between the two programs run deep. Michigan is again expected to be good this year, but it looks like the books are expecting Ohio State to be among the very best teams in the country yet again. Not really a surprise there given the talent they are bringing back.

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