Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-25) and Seattle Mariners (27-25) play the finale of a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park Sunday. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Pirates were blanked 5-0 Saturday — the Mariners were -204 favorites — after taking Friday’s opener 11-6 as +142 underdogs. The Bucs had just 2 hits Saturday and struck out 17 times as their freefall continues. They are 6-17 in their last 23 games, including 4-6 in the last 10 games. They are a half-game out of 1st place in the NL Central.

Seattle RHP Luis Castillo dominated Saturday, allowing 1 hit and striking out 10 in 6 shutout innings. The Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 games, and 12-8 over the last 20. They enter play Sunday in 4th place in the AL West, 6½ games out of 1st.

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Pirates at Mariners projected starters

RHP Luis Ortiz vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Ortiz (1-2, 4.02 ERA) makes his 4th start of 2023. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 15 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-4 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Monday
  • Career on road: 0-2, 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.81 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 4 starts

Gonzales (4-1, 5.68 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Oakland Athletics Tuesday
  • 1 career start vs. Pirates: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K Sept. 17, 2019

Pirates at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-175) | Mariners -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Pirates 3

Moneyline

The Mariners are 5-1 heading into the 7th game of a 10-game homestand, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t secure this series win Sunday. OF Julio Rodriguez is hitting .480 (12-for-25) with a homer and 6 RBIs, while 1B Ty France is hitting .412 (7-for-17) with 3 homers and 4 RBIs during the homestand.

The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.

Take the MARINERS (-135) or PASS and look to the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

The M’s have 13 wins this month, and 10 of them have been by 2 or more runs. The Pirates have only had 11 1-run games out of 51 this season. Seattle has the 3rd-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.13 ERA.

That’s enough ground for me to stand on and take the MARINERS -1.5 (+145).

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Over/Under

The conditions are pretty fair in Seattle with a 66-degree day and a light, 5-mph wind blowing out toward right-center. The Under is 4-0-1 for the Pirates when facing a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 for Seattle with a total between 7.0-8.5 and 7-1 in the last 8 at home with that total range.

It’s a slight LEAN because anything can happen with these starters.

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (25-24) and Seattle Mariners (26-24) open a 3-game series in Emerald City on Friday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: first meeting since 2019

Pittsburgh begins a 6-game west coast road trip Friday.  The Pirates have lost 4 of their last 5 games while scoring just 3 runs per game over that stretch.

The Mariners started a 10-game homestand on Monday with a 4-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics. Seattle held Oakland to 2 runs or fewer in all 4 games.

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Pirates at Mariners projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP George Kirby

Keller (5-1, 2.44 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 62 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K, in a 4-3 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
  • Only career start vs Mariners: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home defeat Sept. 17, 2019

Kirby (5-3, 2.62 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 58 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K, in a 3-2 road setback vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday
  • Has never faced the Pirates in his career
  • 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1 HR allowed, 22 K in 23 2/3 innings over 4 starts

Pirates at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mariners -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-175) | Mariners -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Pirates at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Pirates 2

Moneyline

PASS.

I would not touch this money line because of the even pitching matchup despite that I do think the Mariners (-150) should win this game. The moneyline here is just too steep for a game with an outcome that I’m not uber-confident about.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

These lines do not tempt me into making a wager. My lean would be the Mariners -1.5 (+145), but it’s not enough of a lean that I would advise you to make a bet. This game will come down to the bullpens, and that’s risky business in what might be a tight series opener.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (-120).

Pittsburgh has struggled to score over their last 5 outings, and Kirby has a solid 3.04 ERA at home to start the season. Keller has been lights out over his last 3 turns, allowing just 2 total runs over his last 22 innings pitched.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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