The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-25) and Seattle Mariners (27-25) play the finale of a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park Sunday. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Pirates were blanked 5-0 Saturday — the Mariners were -204 favorites — after taking Friday’s opener 11-6 as +142 underdogs. The Bucs had just 2 hits Saturday and struck out 17 times as their freefall continues. They are 6-17 in their last 23 games, including 4-6 in the last 10 games. They are a half-game out of 1st place in the NL Central.
Seattle RHP Luis Castillo dominated Saturday, allowing 1 hit and striking out 10 in 6 shutout innings. The Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 games, and 12-8 over the last 20. They enter play Sunday in 4th place in the AL West, 6½ games out of 1st.
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Pirates at Mariners projected starters
RHP Luis Ortiz vs. LHP Marco Gonzales
Ortiz (1-2, 4.02 ERA) makes his 4th start of 2023. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 15 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-4 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Monday
- Career on road: 0-2, 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.81 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 4 starts
Gonzales (4-1, 5.68 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Oakland Athletics Tuesday
- 1 career start vs. Pirates: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K Sept. 17, 2019
Pirates at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-175) | Mariners -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Mariners are 5-1 heading into the 7th game of a 10-game homestand, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t secure this series win Sunday. OF Julio Rodriguez is hitting .480 (12-for-25) with a homer and 6 RBIs, while 1B Ty France is hitting .412 (7-for-17) with 3 homers and 4 RBIs during the homestand.
The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
Take the MARINERS (-135) or PASS and look to the spread.
Run line/Against the spread
The M’s have 13 wins this month, and 10 of them have been by 2 or more runs. The Pirates have only had 11 1-run games out of 51 this season. Seattle has the 3rd-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.13 ERA.
That’s enough ground for me to stand on and take the MARINERS -1.5 (+145).
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Over/Under
The conditions are pretty fair in Seattle with a 66-degree day and a light, 5-mph wind blowing out toward right-center. The Under is 4-0-1 for the Pirates when facing a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 for Seattle with a total between 7.0-8.5 and 7-1 in the last 8 at home with that total range.
It’s a slight LEAN because anything can happen with these starters.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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