Tag: Pittsburgh Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (5-6) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-4) in the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0.

The Astros defeated the Pirates 8-2 Monday with LHP Framber Valdez logging 2 ER on 3 H and 5 BB with 5 K over 7 IP. Houston has won 2 straight games after losing 5 of its previous 6 games from April 2-8.

RHP Roansy Contreras struggled to the tune of 7 ER on 9 H and 4 BB with 3 K in 3 1/3 IP Monday. Pittsburgh also placed SS Oneil Cruz on the 10-day IL Monday. The starting shortstop suffered a fractured left fibula and damaged syndesmosis and is expected to be sidelined for at least 4 months.

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Astros at Pirates projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Javier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 11 IP.

  • Has struck out at least 5 batters in each of his first 2 starts of the season
  • Seems fully stretched out after throwing 99 pitches in his 2nd start

Keller (1-0, 3.86 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 through 11 2/3 IP.

  • Has fanned 7 or more batters in each of his first 2 starts
  • Tallied 100 and 107 pitches in his first 2 outings

Astros at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Pirates 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Astros (-175) are favored on the road and have the better pitcher on the mound, but taking them at the current odds to win straight up isn’t worth the risk.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (-105).

While Keller is pitching better to begin the season, the Pirates are without Cruz and the Astros can get hot quickly despite not having 2B Jose Altuve. Javier should be able to limit Pittsburgh’s batters and give Houston a decent chance to win by multiple runs.

The Astros have won by 2 or more runs in each of their first 5 wins this season.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-105) is the pick in this matchup with both pitchers having success to begin the season. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (44-33) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (30-45) open a 4-game series Thursday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-0, including 3-0 in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers enter on a 4-game win streak, including a 2-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays on the road Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Pirates lost 2 of 3 games in Washington to kick off the week, and Pittsburgh is just 1-5 across the past six outings overall.

Brewers at Pirates projected starters

RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP JT Brubaker

Houser (4-8, 4.50 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 74 IP.

  • Has a 1-3 record with a 5.86 ERA and .300 opponent batting average across 27 2/3 IP in 5 June starts.
  • Is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and .285 OBA in 34 1/3 IP across 7 road outings.

Brubaker (1-7, 4.14 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 76 IP.

  • Allowed 4 R (2 ER) with 2 H and 2 BB across 5 IP in a loss on the road against the Brewers April 19 in his only start vs. MIL this season.
  • Is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA and a .258 OBA in 31 IP across 6 home starts.

Brewers at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Pirates +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Brewers at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Pirates 4

Money line

The BREWERS (-135) have picked up 6 wins in 6 tries against the Pirates (+110) this season. You have to keep fading Pittsburgh until it proves it can finally get over the hump against Milwaukee.

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Run line/Against the spread

The BREWERS -1.5 (+125) are worth a roll of the dice, even though Houser has struggled this season. In the 6 wins by Milwaukee over Pittsburgh, 5 of the victories have been by 2 or more runs. The Brew Crew has outscored the Bucs 33-16 in the 6-game span.

Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-108) is going a little against the grain here, as the Under is 4-1-1 in the previous 6 meetings.

However, the Over is 4-2 in the past 6 starts by Houser, while the Over is 6-0-1 in the past 7 games overall for the Brewers and 5-2 in the past 7 on the road.

For the Bucs, the Over has hit in 5 of the past 6 games inside the NL Central, while cashing in each of Brubaker’s past 2 outings.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-44) and Washington Nationals (28-48) play the 2nd of a 3-game series Tuesday at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Pirates lead 3-2

The Pirates dropped Monday’s series opener 3-2 although emergency call-up RHP Miguel Yajure did a good job with 4 scoreless IP with 4 H and 3 BB allowed.

The Nationals entered the bottom of the 8th down 2-1, but scratched out 2 runs in the inning for the come-from-behind victory. Washington is now 5-2 in the last 7 games, hitting the Under in 5 of the last 6 contests.

Pirates at Nationals projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Quintana (1-4, 3.60 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 70 IP.

  • No-decision last time out Thursday against the Chicago Cubs at home with 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6 IP.
  • Hasn’t won in 8 consecutive starts, since May 9 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Is 0-1 with a 4.44 ERA in 5 road starts with 24 1/3 IP.

Corbin (3-10, 6.60 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.79 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 2 ER, 3 H and 3 BB over 5 1/3 IP in a no-decision in his first outing against the Bucs in Pittsburgh April 17.
  • Is 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA and .292 opponent batting average over 38 1/3 IP in 8 home outings.

Pirates at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pirates +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+160) | Nationals +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Pirates at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 7, Nationals 5

Money line

The PIRATES (+100) are worth playing in the middle game of this set as they look for the bounce back. Corbin has been very giving for the Nationals (-120) this season, and while his splits are slightly better at home, he is still not very good. The Bucs have seemingly struggled everywhere lately, but they’re 5-2 in the previous 7 meetings with the Nats.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PIRATES -1.5 (+160) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. Pittsburgh has just 6 wins since June 5, but 4 of those victories were by 2 or more runs, and the offense should be able to jump on Corbin early and often.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (+110) is a strong play at plus-money.

Both Quintana and Corbin have been putting up a lot of crooked numbers this season, and the offenses should both get well in this game. In fact, the Over is the best play on the board.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-43) and Washington Nationals (27-48) meet Monday in the opener of a 3-game series at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Pirates lead 3-1

The Pirates took 3 of 4 games from the Nationals in Pittsburgh back on April 14-17, outscoring the Nationals 22-18. The Over went 2-0-2 in the series.

The Pirates enter on a 3-game slide after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays during a weekend interleague series in St. Petersburg.

The Nationals also played an interleague road series over the weekend, winning 2 of 3 games against the Texas Rangers. Washington is a respectable 4-2 across the past 6 outings.

Pirates at Nationals projected starters

RHP Miguel Yajure vs. RHP Erick Fedde

Yajure, who is getting called up from Triple-A Indianapolis, will likely be pitching in an opener role. He went 1-0 with a 11.32 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 3.5 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP (6 relief appearances) from April 10-May 1 before getting sent down to Indy.

  • Went 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.66 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 6 Triple-A games (5 starts) since his demotion
  • Made all 3 of his MLB starts last season, going 0-2 with an 8.74 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 11 ER)
  • Career vs. Nationals: 1 relief appearance (April 15), allowing 3 ER on 3 H and 2 BB in 3 IP

Fedde (5-5, 4.46 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 68 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed just 2 H and 1 BB with 4 K across 6 scoreless IP in a 3-0 win at the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday to level his record at 5-5
  • Is 2-3 with a 5.03 ERA and .279 opponents’ batting average in 7 home starts across 34 IP

Pirates at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pirates +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Nationals -150 (bet $150  to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-160) | Nationals -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U):  9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pirates at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 7, Pirates 4

Money line

The NATIONALS (-150) have been playing pretty good baseball lately. Washington jumped all over the Rangers in Sunday’s interleague series finale, scoring 6 runs in the first 2 innings. It ended up hanging on for a 6-4 victory, capping off the series win.

The Pirates scrambled to find a starter for this one, and they’ve dropped 3 in a row after taking 4 of 5 at home from the Chicago Cubs June 19-23.

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Run line/Against the spread

The NATIONALS -1.5 (+130) have not only won 4 out of the past 6 games, but they have covered the run line in 3 of those wins. Play WASHINGTON lightly, laying the run and a half.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (-110) is worth playing, as both of these teams are rolling out some shaky options to start on the mound. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games overall for the Nationals, but the Over hit in Sunday’s game as the offense came alive early. Look for similar results for the Nats Monday.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (53-91) host the Cincinnati Reds (75-70) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at PNC Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh took Tuesday’s series opener 6-5 as the Pirates’ 6-run lead after the fifth inning was too much for the Reds to overcome.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Reds lead 9-2.

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 9-6 with a 4.05 ERA (104 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 4-1 loss at the Chicago Cubs Sept. 8, with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • Gutiérrez beat Pittsburgh, 11-3, Aug. 7, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

RHP Mitch Keller gets the nod for the Pirates. He is 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA (83 IP, 58 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sept. 8 against the Detroit Tigers.
  • Keller is 0-2 with 8 1/3 IP, 11 ER, 14 H, 6 BB and 6 K in two starts against the Reds this season.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (73 PA): 8.53 FIP with a .345 average, .465 wOBA, .465 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 91.8 mph exit velocity.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

The “reverse line movement” headed in Pittsburgh’s direction gives this contest a “trap game” feel so I’ll just “LEAN” to the REDS (-145) for a half unit.

According to Pregame.com at the time of writing, more than 85% of the action is on the Reds but the Pirates have gone from a +143 consensus underdog to the listed price. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

However, it’s hard to figure out how the Pirates win this game against a Cincinnati team motivated by still being in the playoff hunt and that has owned Pittsburgh this season.

Furthermore, Gutiérrez is more effective away from Cincy’s notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark and Keller has gotten raked in Pittsburgh. Gutiérrez has a 3.43 road ERA (4.91 ERA at home), 1.21 road WHIP (1.43 WHIP at home) and a .672 opponent OPS (.889 opponent’s OPS at home).

Keller is 2-8 at home with an 8.19 ERA (3.63 road ERA), 2.05 WHIP (1.39 road WHIP) and 1.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB on the road).

Lastly, Cincy’s lineup is significantly more productive than Pittsburgh’s and the Reds bullpen has hovered around the top-10 of several advanced pitching metrics following the All-Star break, whereas Pirates relievers have gotten roughed up all season.

“LEAN” REDS (-145) for a half unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing the Pirates +1.5 (-135) and the public is betting on the Reds -1.5 (+110).

Oddsmakers have reacted to the money column and have made Pittsburgh’s run line more expensive since the opener.

In sports betting, it’s not very profitable to fade the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Plus, the Reds are 8-20 ATS as road favorites and the lowly Pirates are still 34-29 ATS as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because eight of the last 10 Reds-Pirates meeting went Over the projected total and Pittsburgh is sending out one of the most poorly graded starting pitchers in the NL.

Keller grades in the second percentile in hard-hit rate, third percentile in exit velocity, 21st percentile in xSLG, 11th percentile in xwOBA and 19th percentile in chase rate.

If Cincy’s lineup cannot rake Keller then it’ll have plenty of chances against this bottom rung Pittsburgh bullpen.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-81) host the St. Louis Cardinals (64-62) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh rallied back from a 4-run deficit with an 8-run 7th-inning outburst to win the series opener Thursday 11-7. Pirates batters four through six (1B Colin Moran, 3B Wilmer Difo and RF Gregory Polanco) combined to hit 10-for-15 with a home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs.

Season series: Cardinals lead 10-6.

LHP J.A. Happ is St. Louis’s projected starter. Happ is 7-6 with a 5.88 ERA (121 IP, 79 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 loss Saturday against Pittsburgh.
  • Happ is 2-0 against Pittsburgh this season with a 1.40 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 16 K in three starts.
  • vs. the Pirates on the current roster (62 PA): 4.32 FIP with a .190 batting average (BA), .272 wOBA, .391 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.4 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Dillon Peters makes his third start for the Pirates. Peters is 0-1 with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts.

  • .Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Pittsburgh’s 5-4 win Saturday at St. Louis.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (22 PA): 5.75 FIP with a .200 BA, .290 wOBA, .580 xSLG, 13.6 K% and 88.3 mph EV.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Cardinals 7, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Happ is a starter I typically like to fade but he’s been very good since joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in four starts since arriving in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh’s lineup has the second-worst wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching and fifth-worst hard-hit rate. St. Louis’s lineup ranks 13th in wRC+ but has the sixth-best hard-hit rate vs. lefties.

The Cardinals are 6-1 overall as road favorites of -130 or more with a plus-43.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 6.1-3.0. On the flip side, the Pirates are 3-9 overall as home underdogs of +120 or greater with a minus-29.0% ROI and an average score of 6.0-4.2.

GIMME the CARDINALS (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because St. Louis’s bullpen is not dependable enough to lay it with the Cardinals -1.5 (+100). For instance, St. Louis’s bullpen has the worst SIERA and K-BB% in the majors and the second-worst xFIP.

Also, the Cardinals are just 22-28 ATS against divisional foes and the Pirates are 29-27 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer betting St. Louis’s money line instead of the total. However, both ball clubs have played more to the Over in division games and Happ’s teams are 13-8-2 O/U in his starts.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (23-14) meet the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-22) Friday for the second game of a four-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 1-0 after Thursday’s 3-1 victory.

RHP Kevin Gausman gets the nod for the Giants. Gausman is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 over 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-1, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K vs. the San Diego Padres Saturday.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.47 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 over 6 starts and 2 relief appearances (last start was in 2019).
    • vs. Pirates on the current roster: 71 at-bats with a .254/.289/.408 slash line, 17/4 K/BB, 2 HR and 6 RBIs.

RHP Miguel Yajure is the projected starter for the Pirates. He dropped his first MLB start, while allowing 4 earned runs (2 home runs) on 4 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts in Pittsburgh’s 5-2 loss at the Detroit Tigers April 21.

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Giants at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (-115) | Pirates +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” because Gausman hasn’t pitched well in PNC Park throughout his career, making Giants (-200) a no-go, but good teams beat up on the lowly Pirates (+165) and San Francisco is a good team.

For instance, Gausman is 1-2 with a 7.32 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.58 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 over 3 starts and 2 bullpen outings at PNC Park.

Also, since the beginning of last season, the Giants are 38-21 vs. teams with a losing record while the Pirates are 19-39 against teams with a winning record.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-105) for a half unit because Gausman hasn’t been sharp at PNC Park and the Giants -1.5 (-115) bullpen has been subpar this year.

San Francisco’s bullpen is 24th in xFIP, 20th in K-BB%, 26th in home runs per nine and second-to-last in WAR, so the backdoor is going to be open in the late innings.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-105) for a half unit because the Giants have a 4-2 O/U record in Gausman starts, partially due to San Francisco’s weak bullpen.

But, the Giants have several key bats that could be out of the lineup tonight such as 2B Donovan Solano, 1B Brandon Belt, and SS Brandon Crawford.

Also, Pittsburgh’s lineup is at the bottom of the league in several advanced hitting categories such as 26th in wRC+, wOBA and OPS and dead-last in hard-hit rate.

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