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The New York Yankees (93-67) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (75-85) to Yankee Stadium Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 1-0
The Yankees lost to the Pirates 4-2 Friday to commence the final series for both teams.
New York dropped 2 of 3 games to the Baltimore Orioles in the series prior. It is 7-4 over its last 11 games. The Yankees are 43-36 at home this season and 83-77 against the spread (ATS) overall. New York is 1 game ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for the top seed in the American League.
The Pirates have traded off winning and losing over their last 6 games. They dropped 2 of 3 games to both the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds in their last 2 series. Pittsburgh is 36-43 on the road and 83-77 ATS overall.
Pirates at Yankees projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Luis Gil
Skenes (11-3, 1.99 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 131 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 2-0 road victory over Reds Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 5-2, 1.37 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.83 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 10 starts
- Has never faced Yankees
Gil (15-6, 3.27 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 146 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-4 road victory over Oakland A’s Sunday
- 2024 home stats: 6-3, 3.09 ERA (70 IP, 24 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 14 starts
- Has never faced Pirates
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Yankees -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Pirates at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 3, Yankees 2
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (+115).
The Pirates are 14-8 this season with Skenes on the mound and are an impressive 7-3 when he pitches on the road. Considering all 27 innings, they have allowed a total of 4 runs in his last 3 starts. He has been even more impressive on the road.
New York has struggled as of late, dropping 3 of its last 4 games. It has allowed 19 runs in its last 4 games. The Yankees are just 2-4 over their last 6 at home. Expect those defensive struggles to continue, and back PIRATES (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no good value here. The Pirates aren’t worth a play as run-line underdogs and are far too expensive. Similarly, the Yankees may struggle to separate themselves with Skenes on the mound for Pittsburgh.
Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).
The Pirates have gone Under in 3 straight games and in 5 of their last 6. They have also gone Under in Skenes’ last 4 starts and tallied just 13 runs over their last 6 games. Their offense has struggled, and they have their ace on the mound.
The Yankees are 5-6-1 O/U in their last 12 and have a solid option to start the game as well. Considering the pitchers and the recent trends, take UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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