The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-79) and Philadelphia Phillies (72-55) close out their 3-game intrastate series Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 6-0
The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and 13 of their last 15. Pittsburgh has been outscored 97-46 across those 15 games.
The Phillies have won 6 outings in a row. Philadelphia is 14-4 in its last 18 home games.
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Pirates at Phillies projected starters
RHP Roansy Contreras vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Contreras (3-4, 3.86 ERA) has appeared in 14 games and made 11 starts. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 63 IP.
- Coughed up 7 home runs in a 26 2/3-inning stretch from June 10-July 9, and was then sent to the minors. Has allowed 6 runs (1 HR) over 13 IP across 2 games since returning to the Pirates Aug. 17.
- Has benefited from a .273 batting average on balls in play.
Syndergaard (8-8, 3.77 ERA) owns a 1.23 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 105 IP across 19 starts.
- Owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
- Figures to see a lot of lefty bats in the Pittsburgh lineup and that cuts into a problem area: has allowed a .737 OPS (with lesser strikeout and walk rates) against lefty bats.
Pirates at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (+110) | Phillies -1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Pirates at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Pirates 3
Money line
PASS. The juice is drowning out any leverage on a Philadelphia lean.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Pirates have had so many non-competitive games of late. They have been within 2 runs of their opponent just once in their current 7-game losing streak.
A reasonable effort by the Philly ‘pen gets the home side clear by 3 runs with more than enough probability to warrant the risk.
BACK PHILADELPHIA ALTERNATE SPREAD -2.5 (+110).
Over/Under
Same calculation as Saturday’s game (which did hit the Under): There is some baked-in Under lean to the series, but the mound match-up — in this case, Contreras vs. Syndergaard — works against that. Not because they are bad pitchers but because the expectation of performance level is likely higher than it should be.
Mix in a warm afternoon at Citizens and the fact that one offense seems to be doing all the lifting. PASS on the full game total. However, PHILLIES OVER 5.5 (+100) might be a consideration for some bettors looking to leverage the Contreras fade and strong Philly offense.
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