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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-62) and San Diego Padres (67-53) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series at Petco Park Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 4-0

The Padres won 2-1 as -201 favorites in the Monday opener as the Under (8.5) easily cashed. 2B Xander Bogaerts drove in a run on a 7th-inning single, and CF Jackson Merrill dove for a game-saving catch on a liner from Pirates LF Bryan Reynolds in the 9th.

The Pirates failed to cash as +183 underdogs, losing for the 10th time in 11 games. SP Jake Woodford allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits with 2 K’s in the loss, but gave up a 7th-inning leadoff double to Padres LF Jurickson Profar, who eventually scored.

Pirates at Padres projected starters

RHP Luis L. Ortiz vs. RHP Michael King

Ortiz (5-2, 3.40 ERA) makes his 8th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 90 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-6 home loss vs. Padres Thursday
  • 2024 road stats: 3-1, 2.70 ERA (40 IP, 12 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 14 appearances (3 starts)
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-0, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 K/9 in 2 starts

King (9-6, 3.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 9-8 win in 10 innings at Pirates Wednesday (only career appearance vs. Pittsburgh)
  • 2024 home stats: 1-4, 4.25 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 9 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Pirates at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pirates +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Pirates 4

Moneyline

The Padres (-225) are 17-3 since July 20 and 4-0 against the Pirates this season. However, it’s a losing proposition long term to bet into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back games by just 1 run and covered +1.5 in 3 of its 4 losses to San Diego this season. Neither starter was impressive last week in Pittsburgh, and the Padres have beaten the Pirates by 2 or more runs just twice over the last 10 meetings.

BET PIRATES +1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Ortiz has allowed 4 or more ER in back-to-back starts, and King gave up 4 runs in Wednesday’s meeting. Both offenses should bounce back after a low-scoring series opener, and this is one of the best numbers in the market.

BET OVER 8 (+100).

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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-61) and San Diego Padres (66-53) open a 3-game series at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-0

The Pirates were swept in a 3-game weekend series at the Los Angeles Dodgers. They lost 6-5 as +222 underdogs in the Sunday finale as the Over (8.5) hit. Pittsburgh is last in the NL Central and 5 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Padres failed to complete a 3-game sweep at the Miami Marlins, wrapping up the series with a 7-6 loss as -194 favorites Sunday with the Over (7.5) cashing. San Diego is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the 2nd-best record in the NL West — 3½ games behind the division-leading Dodgers — and the top NL Wild Card.

Pirates at Padres projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

LHP Marco Gonzales (1-1, 4.54 ERA) is projected to make his 8th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-8 home loss in 10 innings vs. Padres Wednesday
  • 2024 road stats: 1-0, 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.75 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Padres: 1-0, 5.52 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 3 starts

Musgrove (3-4, 5.66 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 49 1/3 IP.

  • Has been out since May 26 with right elbow inflammation; expected to be limited to 60 pitches Monday
  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-2 home win over New York Yankees May 26
  • 2024 home stats: 2-3, 5.26 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 7 starts
  • Career vs. Pirates: 1-2, 3.33 ERA (27 IP, 10 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 5 starts, including 0-0 with 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last year

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Pirates at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Pirates 4

Moneyline

The PADRES (-165) have won 7 of 8 games and haven’t lost 2 straight since a 2-game skid July 14-19 (before and after the All-Star break). The Pirates have lost 7 consecutive games and were swept last week by the visiting Padres in a 3-game series.

BET PADRES (-165).

Run line/Against the spread

Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155) will likely hit — 2 of its 3 losses to San Diego this season have been by just 1 run — but it’s hard to stay profitable in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

Musgrove’s 5.66 ERA this season is the highest of his career, and there’s no guarantee he’ll bounce back after missing all of June and July with elbow inflammation. Gonzales has allowed 4 or more ER in back-to-back outings, with the most recent start against the Padres in Pittsburgh Wednesday.

BET OVER 8 (-115).

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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (43-56) open a 3-game road series against the San Diego Padres (48-52) Monday. First pitch from PETCO Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 3-0

The Pirates are coming off a 7-5 road loss to the Los Angeles Angels Sunday. They lost 2 out of 3 games in that series. They are 2-6 since the All-Star break and are in last place in the NL Central.

The Padres return home for the first time since the All-Star break. They went 4-6 on the road trip. They are coming off a 3-1 loss to the Detroit Tigers but took 2 out of 3 games. They are in 4th place in the NL West, 10 games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Pirates at Padres projected starters

RHP Quinn Priester vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Priester (0-1, 11.81 ERA) makes his 2nd start of his career. He has a 1.69 WHIP, 2 BB and 2 K through 5 1/3 IP.

  • Made major league debut last Monday: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-0 home loss to Cleveland Guardians
  • Went 7-3 with 4.31 ERA in 18 starts for AAA Indianapolis

Darvish (7-6, 4.36 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 97 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2-0 road win over Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
  • Has allowed only 1 R in 12 IP (2 starts) since All-Star break

Pirates at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pirates +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Padres -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (+105) | Padres -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Pirates 4

Moneyline

The Pirates are 20-30 on the road this season and 3-7 in their last 10 games on the road.

The Padres are 25-23 at home this season and have won 5 of their last 6 games at Petco Park.

Darvish has been dialed in since the All-Star break, allowing only 1 run in his last 12 innings, while Priester allowed 7 runs in his MLB debut last week.

The Padres should win, but at -275 odds, PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates are 45-54 ATS this season, the 5th-worst mark in the majors, while the Padres are a little better at 49-51 ATS overall.

The Padres are 21-25 ATS at home. The Pirates are 25-25 ATS on the road.

The Pirates’ last 7 losses and 14 of their last 15 have been by more than 1 run.

Twelve of the Padres’ last 12 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

BET PADRES -1.5 (-125). 

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Over/Under

Six of the Pirates’ last 7 games have had at least 9 total runs.

Seven of the Padres’ last 10 games have had totals of 9 or more runs.

BET OVER 8.5 (-105),

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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-25) open a 3-game road series against the San Diego Padres (28-16) Friday. First pitch is 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres lead the season series 2-1.

The Pirates were off Thursday and are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Colorado Rockies. However, they have lost 6 of their last 9 games.

The Padres lost 2 of 3 contests against the Milwaukee Brewers in their last series but have won 7 of their last 10 games. They have been a very average 11-9 at Petco Park.

Pirates at Padres projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Quintana (1-2, 2.43 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 40 2/3 IP.

  • Had his shortest outing in his last start as he allowed 5 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits over 3 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of his 8 starts this season.

Manaea (2-3, 4.04 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 49 IP.

  • Took a no-decision in a 7-6 loss at the Pirates April 30 with 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • Has allowed 3 or more runs in each of his last 5 outings.

Pirates at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pirates +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Padres 4

Money line

Manaea has been very hittable in recent weeks, while Quintana has been fantastic this season.

If there is a game the Pirates can steal in this series, it would be Friday’s contest.

Pittsburgh is 5-3 with Quintana on the mound and won 3 of his last 4 outings.

The Padres have lost 4 of Manaea’s last 5 starts.

I like the upset tonight.

Take the PIRATES (+175).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates are 20-23 ATS on the season. They have covered the spread only 3 times in their last 10 games.

The Padres are 24-20 ATS overall this season but are the league’s second-worst team against the spread at home at 6-14 ATS.

The money line is the best value for the Pirates but if you aren’t confident enough in an outright win for Pittsburgh, the line here is still worth it.

Take the PIRATES +1.5 (-130).

Over/Under

Manaea’s last 5 starts have all had 8 or more runs.

Four of the Pirates’ last 6 games have had more than 7 runs.

Two of the 3 games the two teams played in Pittsburgh had more than 8 runs.

Take OVER 7.5 (+112).

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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (13-16) and San Diego Padres (17-14) play the finale of a three-game set Wednesday at Petco Park with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 over 27 1/3 IP through 5 starts.

Brubaker allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of his 5 outings. Statistically, he had his worst outing of the season last time out Friday, allowing season highs of 3 earned runs and 7 hits in just 5 innings for his shortest outing since April 5.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 38 IP through 6 starts.

Darvish turned in a quality start in each of his past 5 outings, and he struck out a season-high 12 batters last time out in 6 1/3 innings against the San Francisco Giants. He also allowed just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk with 6 strikeouts over 7 innings in a victory in Pittsburgh April 12.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Pirates at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pirates +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Padres -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -115 | Under -105)

Prediction

Padres 4, Pirates 1

Money line (ML)

The Padres (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, and that’s risky business considering they have had difficulty scoring runs lately.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PADRES -1.5 (-110) are worth a small-unit play, as they have one of their best pitchers on the bump.

Darvish has allowed just 5 earned runs across his last 33 1/3 innings spanning 5 starts. It won’t take much offense for the Padres to cover the run line here, and that’s good since they have managed just 4 runs in their last three games.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 6.5 (-105) is the lean, although it’s a very, very low number.

San Diego isn’t producing much with the bats, and Darvish won’t yield much, either. The Padres should win this series finale in a low-scoring game.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-15) and San Diego Padres (16-13) open a three-game series at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 2-2 after – they split a 4-game set in Pittsburgh April 12-15.

The Pirates enter on a 4-game skid after getting shut out 3-0 by the visiting St. Louis Cardinals Sunday. The Padres lost at home to the San Francisco Giants 7-1 Sunday, snapping a 3-game win streak.

LHP Tyler Anderson is the Pirates’ projected starter. He is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 5 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K vs. Kansas City Royals Tuesday – Pirates won 2-1
  • 2021 vs. Padres: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-1 home victory April 14
  • Career vs. Padres: 4-2, 2.53 ERA (57 IP, 16 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance

RHP Miguel Diaz is expected to start for the Padres in his first MLB appearance since 2019. It would have been RHP Chris Paddack‘s turn to start, but he was placed on the injured list Friday with what the team called a “medical condition.” Diaz, who broke into the bigs in 2017, has never faced the Pirates.

  • Diaz in 2019: 0-0, 7.11 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5 relief outings
  • Diaz career: 2-1, 6.62 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 47 games, including 3 starts
  • Career as a starter: 0-0, 4.70 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 5 BB, 7 K

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Pirates at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pirates +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Pirates 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

The PIRATES (+160) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Pirates offer decent value with Anderson on the mound vs. Diaz, who is making his first MLB appearance in two years. The Bucs were +176 underdogs when Anderson beat the Padres in Pittsburgh April 14.

The +160 ML price is just too good to pass up.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. I don’t want to risk the chance of losing 2 bets – Pirates ML and Pirates ATS – if the Padres win by 2 or more runs.

ATS records: Pirates 12-15 | Padres 15-14

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 9 (-115) is the play. The Under is 5-0 in Anderson’s starts this season, including his 5-1 victory against the Padres.

While the thought of Diaz starting for the Friars might be worrisome, their bullpen’s 2.95 ERA ranks first in the NL and fifth in the majors.

Pittsburgh’s relievers are pretty good too, owning a 3.65 ERA to rank third in the Senior Circuit.

Scoring-wise, both clubs are in the bottom third of the majors. San Diego averages 4.0 runs per game and Pittsburgh averages 3.78 runs per game.

Another supporting factor for the Under: In the 16 games at Petco Park this season, the Padres averaged 3.19 runs and allowed 3.625 runs per game.

O/U records: Pirates 13-12-2 | Padres 12-17

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 34-30-1 9-9-1 +0.38
2021 (all sports) 137-115-2 58-50-1 +13.93
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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