Tag: Pirates Cubs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (21-26) visit the Chicago Cubs (26-21) at Wrigley Field Sunday to finish their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

It was a pitchers’ duel in Chicago Saturday. Both teams combined for 9 hits and 15 K’s in a 1-0 Cubs victory. The line of 8.5 total runs didn’t come close, while those who bet Chicago (-210) came away thankful.

Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga lowered his ERA to 0.84 and 3B Christopher Morel brought in the only run, a single in the bottom of the 9th inning to walk it off.

Pirates LHP Bailey Falter also showed off his arm, throwing for 7 2/3 innings and allowing just 3 hits.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Keller (4-3, 3.93 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 55 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 8-6 road win at Milwaukee Brewers Monday
• 2024 road stats: 2-2, 4.03 ERA (29 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts

Taillon (3-1, 1.61 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 28 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-0 loss to Atlanta Braves Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 3-0, 1.08 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 2 ER) in 3 starts

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 7, Pirates 3

Moneyline

The Cubs are 14-8 (63.6%) straight up at Wrigley this year. On top of that, they post a 12-7 record (63.2%) as favorites.

LEAN CUBS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Coming off of a loss, the Pirates have the worst cover rate in baseball at 9-16 (36%). But after a win, the Cubs are not something to rest your hat on. They are 12-13 (48%) and 2-7 (22.2%) against divisional opponents.

I personally would stick with the moneyline.

AVOID.

Over/Under

Despite last game, the Cubs and Pirates tend to go Over when they play against NL Central teams. Chicago has an Over record of 5-3-1 (62.5%), while Pittsburgh’s is 7-5-1 (58.3%). I expect a rebound from both teams after Saturday’s offensive woes.

BET OVER 7.5 (-105).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-25) and Chicago Cubs (25-20) play the 2nd contest in a 4-game series Friday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Pirates secured a 5-4 win in the series opener Thursday as slight underdogs (+105) as the Over (8) cashed. As a ‘dog, the Pirates are 3-3 in the past 6 games straight up, while cashing on the run line as an underdog in 5 of those outings. The Over is 6-1-2 across the previous 9 contests, too, including 3-0-1 vs. Chicago this season.

The Cubs have dropped 3 of the past 4 games at home, and they’re just 1-3 straight up in the past 4 outings. The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games, with the offense averaging 2.8 runs per game (RPG), including 2 shutout losses. The pitching has yielded just 19 total runs in the past 5 outings, or 3.8 RPG.

The Cubs won 2 of 3 games in Pittsburgh in the 1st 3 meetings of the season, outscoring the Bucs 21-16. The Over was 2-0-1 in that series at PNC Park. The favorite is just 1-3 in 4 meetings between these teams this season.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks

Skenes (0-0, 6.75 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 15.8 K/9 in 4 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 10-9 home win vs. Cubs last Saturday
• Triple-A Indianapolis stats: (0-0, 0.99 ERA) with 0.92 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 14.8 K/9 in 27 1/3 IP across 7 starts

Hendricks (0-3, 10.04 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 26 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H (solo HR), 4 BB, 5 K in 5-4 road win in 10 innings vs. Pirates last Sunday
• Last home start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 6-3 loss vs. Miami Marlins April 21

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-225) | Cubs -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

The PIRATES (-110) are worth a look, as Skenes makes his 1st career road start. He already has faced the Cubs (-110) before, and he did OK. He should fare better in the 2nd time through the Chicago lineup.

On the flip side, Hendricks has been a disaster for the Cubbies so far, with an ERA north of 10. Until he starts to show some consistency, you need to fade the Cubs when Hendricks is on the bump.

Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates +1.5 (-225) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk, and not enough reward, if you require insurance, and you just can’t bring yourself to play Pittsburgh straight up on Skenes Day.

PASS.

Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-105) is the lean, despite the fact the weather forecast calls for the winds to blow in from 7-10 mph from center field into the 3rd base dugout.

Still, with the way Hendricks has been coughing up runs, we’re likely to see the Pittsburgh offense come alive. And while it’s likely Skenes and the Bucs get the job done, it should be a higher-scoring affair.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-25) and Chicago Cubs (25-19) open a 4-game series at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

The Pirates are coming off a 10-2 loss as +135 underdogs at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday. LHP Martín Pérez allowed 9 ER (5 HR) in 5 innings, which helped the Over (8) easily cash.

Chicago won 7-1 as a +164 underdog at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday as the Under (9) cashed. RHP Javier Assad pitched 6 scoreless innings for the Cubs, who avoided being swept in 3 games.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Jared Jones vs. LHP Justin Steele

Jones (2-4, 2.68 ERA) makes his 9th start. The rookie has a 0.87 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 2 BB, 4 K in 7-2 home defeat vs. Cubs Friday
• Road stats: 1-2, 3.68 ERA (22 IP, 9 ER), 0.86 WHIP in 4 starts

Steele (0-0, 4.73 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 13 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 10-9 loss at Pirates Saturday
• 2024 home stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 2/3 IP), 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 6-3 setback vs. San Diego Padres May 6
• Career vs. Pirates: 1-2, 6.46 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.47 WHIP in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance, including 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA (9 IP, 8 ER) in 2 starts last season

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 3, Cubs 2

Moneyline

Pittsburgh (+105) has the advantage at starting pitcher with Jones, who has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 7 starts. Steele has surprisingly struggled when facing the Pirates in his career and gave up 3 HRs in just 4 IP against them on Saturday.

However, the Cubs offense may come back to life in later innings against the Pirates bullpen, making the 1st 5 innings a slightly safer play.

BET PIRATES FIRST 5 INNINGS (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

Pittsburgh +1.5 (-200) should cover, but it’s a losing proposition long term to lay -200 on a team in MLB.

PASS. Bet Pirates 1st 5 innings and/or the total instead.

Over/Under

The Under has hit in 3 straight Cubs games as they have scored a total of just 7 runs over that span — all in their last game after back-to-back shutouts. Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been much better, either, putting up a total of just 5 runs over its last 2 games.

While the market is expecting Steele to bounce back (his O/U for ER is set at 1.5), he has struggled against Pittsburgh, and that’s cause for concern.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81) and Chicago Cubs (79-73) play the finale of a 3-game set at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 10-2

The first 2 games of the series have been slugfests with the Cubs winning 14-1 Tuesday and Pittsburgh winning 13-7 Wednesday. The Pirates are on the verge of elimination. 8 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 10 to go, but they have been playing well of late. They’re 12-8 and 17-13 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively.

The Cubs have taken a deep dive of late with just 3 wins in their last 10 games. They’re clinging to the final NL Wild Card spot with 3 teams within 3 games of them. They are 42-35 at home and 29-19 within the division this year.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Johan Oviedo vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks

Oviedo (8-14, 4.27 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 166 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K Friday against New York Yankees
• Last 5 starts vs. Cubs: 1-3, 3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 28 K in 27 1/3 IP

Hendricks (6-7, 3.77 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 126 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K Saturday against Arizona Diamondbacks
• Last 5 starts vs, Pirates: 2-2, 3.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 17 K in 27 2/3 IP

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:17 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-145) | Cubs -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

Hendricks has been a lot worse at home this season as his stuff is diminishing as he ages. He’s 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 12 home starts and 3-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 road starts. I’m also a big fan of Oviedo. He has electric stuff if he can just keep the walks to a minimum, and he has walked just 1 in his last 3 starts against the Cubs.

I’ll take the PIRATES (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

I don’t like the run line in any scenario here as 8 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 2 or more runs. If you like the Pirates to cover, just stick with the value on the ML.

PASS.

Over/Under

It’s a little surprising to see this line under 9 after these teams have combined for 35 runs scored in the first 2 games. These teams have actually slaughtered this number in 4 straight meetings. Their numbers trend toward the Under over the last 10, but Oviedo has pitched to 3 straight Overs and Hendricks has cashed the over in 2 of his last 3 turns.

I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-110).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (70-81) and Chicago Cubs (79-72) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Wednesday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 10-1

The Pirates lost 14-1 as +144 underdogs as the Over (9) cashed in the series opener Tuesday. Pittsburgh has lost 3 of its last 4 games.

Rookie DH Alexander Canario hit a grand slam for his 1st HR in the majors as part of an 8-run 8th inning for Chicago. The Cubs ended a 5-game losing skid and have a half-game lead over the Miami Marlins for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Justin Steele

Keller (12-9, 4.04 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 182 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 5-6, 5.15 ERA (92 2/3 IP, 53 ER) in 16 starts
• 2023 vs. Cubs: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 2-1 home victory Aug. 25
• Career vs. Cubs: 3-4, 4.24 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 22 ER) in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance

Steele (16-4, 2.73 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 165 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-4 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• 2023 home stats: 12-2, 2.18 ERA (99 IP, 24 ER) in 17 starts
• 2023 vs. Pirates: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 5-4 road win in 10 innings Aug. 24
• Career vs. Pirates: 1-1, 3.80 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:19 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cubs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 7, Pirates 2

Moneyline

The Cubs (-175) should improve to 11-1 vs. the Pirates this season, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Chicago should win by multiple runs.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Cubs are a respectable 25-26 on the run line this season as home favorites, usually at plus odds.

Steele should bounce back after his 2nd-worst start of the season last time out. He has not allowed a single run in his 2 outings this year when coming off a start with 5 or more ER.

Add in Chicago’s No. 4-ranked home offense, and this should create the perfect storm for the Pirates to lose by multiple runs.

BET CUBS -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under

The Over is 25-19-3 (56.8%) this season when the Cubs play in-division and 26-23-2 (53.1%) when they’re home favorites.

The Over has also hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and should cash Wednesday as Chicago continues to bully Pittsburgh this season.

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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