Tag: Phillies Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (18-10) and San Diego Padres (14-16) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Phillies opened the series with a 9-3 win on Friday as a slight underdog (+110), while the Over (7.5) came through. In Saturday’s game, Philadelphia also cashed as a ‘dog (+100), winning 5-1, while the Under (7.5) connected.

Philadelphia has won 7 of the past 8 meetings since July 15, 2023, with the Over going 7-3 across the past 10 in the series.

The Phillies have won 3 straight, and 10 of the past 12 outings since April 15. The Under holds a slight 3-2-1 edge in the past 6 games.

The Padres have dropped 3 in a row, and they’ve allowed 8.0 runs per game (RPG) in the past 3 outings. San Diego pitching has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 games in a row, and in 6 of the past 9 outings.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Michael King

Walker (15-6, 4.38 ERA) made 31 starts in 2023. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 172 2/3 IP.

  • Making his 2024 debut after opening on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder impingement
  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road loss vs. New York Mets on Sept. 30, 2023
  • 2023 road splits: 8-4, 5.25 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 32 BB, 61 K in 84 IP across 15 starts

King (2-2, 4.11 ERA) makes his 6th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 R (4 ER), 8 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 7-4 road loss vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 6 K in a 13-4 home win vs. San Francisco Giants on March 31

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 2

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (+110) are a strong play at plus-money behind Walker, who makes his season debut. Philadelphia has been cooking along, outscoring the opposition 19-4 in the current 3-game winning streak, and the Phils have won all 5 games against NL West Division foes so far this season.

The Padres (-135) have managed just 4 runs in the 1st 2 games of the series, and they’re averaging just 3.4 RPG in the past 10 outings.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies +1.5 (-185) are a little too costly on the run line as an underdog, as they’ll set you back nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

AVOID, and just focus on the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit wager at most.

The Under cashed in Saturday’s game, with just 6 total runs, and the total has gone low at a 6-4 clip in the past 10 games for the Padres.

The Phillies have allowed just 4 runs in the past 3 games, or 1.33 runs per outing.

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) take on the San Diego Padres (14-14) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at PETCO Park at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 5-2 last year

The Phillies head to the West Coast after taking Thursday’s game 5-0 against  the Reds in Cincinnati. It stopped a 2-game losing streak that followed a 7-game winning streak. After a slow start to the season, the Phils are 8-2 over the last 10 and have drawn within 2 1/2 games of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. OF Kyle Schwarber has yet to find it as he’s 4-for-36 (.111) with 3 of those hits leaving the park in the last 10 games.

The Friars must have been ready to leave Denver as they dropped Thursday’s game 10-9. They were up 9-4 before giving up 6 runs in the 8th to split the 4-game series. Hot-hitting rookie OF Jackson Merrill missed Thursday’s game with a groin injury, but he’s expected to be available Friday. He’s hitting .318 with 1 HR and 12 RBIs. He’s at a cool +500 if you’re looking to get in on him for NL Rookie of the Year.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Nola (3-1, 3.16 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K against Chicago White Sox Sunday
  • Has a 1.81 ERA in his last 4 starts since allowing 6 ER in his 1st start
  • Last 5 regular season starts against Padres: 1-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 K in 35 IP

Musgrove (3-2, 5.74 ERA ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB 3 SO Sunday against Toronto Blue Jays
  • 4 career regular season starts vs. PHI: 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 24 K in 24 IP

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

I give the Phils the edge here. Nola has been amazing since his 1st start. Current Padres have hit just .196 against Nola in 49 plate appearances. Opposing Phils have hit just .235 off Musgrove in 120 PAs, but something isn’t right with him. His fastball has dropped from 93.1 mph to 92.3 mph thus far.

Take the PHILLIES -115.

Run line/Against the spread

Nola has 7 and 9 K’s in his last 2 starts, and he has fanned 10 and 11 Padres in his last 2 starts against them. San Diego is the 5th-toughest to K, but I like the value on AARON NOLA OVER 5.5 K’S (+125).

Over/Under

The Padres are 9th with 5 runs per game (RPG), and the Phils are tied for 14th at 4.3 RPG. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. It’s slated to be a chilly, 60 degrees with a 13-mph straight-line wind from left field to right.

So I think this is going Over, but most books have fallen back to 7.5.

PASS on the 8 number and wait for an Over 7.5.

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (76-62) and San Diego Padres (66-74) have split the first 2 games of their 3-game series that wraps up Wednesday. They will get started at 4:10 p.m. ET at PETCO Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-2 after an 8-0 loss Tuesday

The Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 6 games after winning 5 in a row from Aug. 25-29. Philadelphia still sits atop the NL Wild Card standings with a 1 1/2 game lead over the 2nd NL Wild Card team, the Chicago Cubs.

The Padres have been a disappointment this season but come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games. San Diego is still 6 1/2 games back of the final NL Wild Card.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Zach Wheeler vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Wheeler (10-6, 3.62 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 164 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 7-5 road loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
  • Has 2 consecutive starts with 10 K and 0 BB and has issued more than 1 free pass just once in his last 11 turns
  • 2023 road stats: 6-4, 3.47 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 35 ER) over 15 starts
  • Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 2.31 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 13 ER) with 10.7 K/9 in 8 starts.
  • 2023 vs. Padres: No-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 7-6 home win on July 16

Wacha (11-2, 2.85 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 107 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-3 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 8-2, 2.29 ERA (63 IP, 16 ER) with 8.7 K/9 in 63 IP over 11 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 3-2, 4.98 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 24 ER) over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances, though he hasn’t faced them since 2020.

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

Wheeler has been on a roll lately, posting a 2.73 ERA and 59/8 K/BB in 52 2/3 IP over his last 8 starts. Wacha continues to get the job done as well, though his skills don’t support the sub-3.00 ERA. Philadelphia ranks 9th in wRC+ vs. RHP while the Padres are 17th, and the Phillies also have the pitching edge so back the PHILLIES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

Both starting pitchers have done a great job in keeping runs off the board and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, taking the underdog Padres +1.5 (165) is risky given the way Wheeler has been pitching, as he’s capable of completely shutting the San Diego offense down.

PASS.

Over/Under

Wheeler’s skills have been among the best in the National League, and he boasts a 20/0 K/BB in his last 2 starts. Wacha has had a fine season himself, particularly when pitching at home, and he has allowed 2 ER or less in 13 of his last 14 starts. Both offenses will struggle to get things going in this one so side with the UNDER 8 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (76-61) and San Diego Padres (65-74) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Petco Park Tuesday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-1

The Phils stormed out to an 8-1 lead Monday night and held on for the 9-7 win. They have now won 7 of 10 and hold a 5 1/2-game lead on the top NL Wild Card spot.

San Diego fought back admirably Monday but was in too deep of a hole. That’s pretty much on par with the Padres’ season thus far. They’re 11-19 over the last 30 games and 6 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Pedro Avila

Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 137 2/3 innings for the Phillies and Detroit Tigers.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K last Tuesday against Los Angeles Angels
  • Home/road splits: 3-4, 3.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 10 road starts; 5-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 13 home starts

Avila (0-2, 2.67 ERA) makes his 4th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 1 ER (6 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K Thursday against San Francisco Giants
  • Home/road splits: 0-1, 1.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 in 14 1/3 home IP; 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 16 road IP

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Padres 4

Moneyline

Lorenzen hasn’t been great since his no-hitter as he has allowed 13 ER in 10 IP, but the Phils still have the edge on the mound. Avila has watched 11 runs cross the plate in his last 2 starts, but only 6 were earned.

Philadelphia hit 3 homers Monday night in a big ballpark, and they have scored 4 or more in 7 straight games and 9 of 10.

Take the PHILLIES (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

As mentioned, both pitchers have not been stingy with the scoresheet, and both teams have plated 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. This figures to be another track meet.

Take OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105).

Over/Under

The Phils are 7-3 O/U over the last 10, and the Padres are 6-3-1. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams as well. Both starters have helped the Over cash in 3 straight starts.

This is a pretty clear decision – take the OVER 9 (+100).

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (75-61) and the San Diego Padres (65-73) open a 3-game series Monday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-1

The Phillies dropped the first 2 games of the weekend series at the Milwaukee Brewers by a 7-5 score. It salvaged the series finale Sunday by a 4-2 score behind LHP Ranger Suarez, halting a 3-game losing skid. The Under result also ended a 5-0 run to the Over for Philadelphia.

The Padres dropped the series opener to the visiting San Francisco Giants Thursday by a 7-2 count, but they rebounded with 3 straight wins while outscoring San Francisco 17-4. The Under has cashed in the past 2 outings for San Diego after a 6-1-1 run to the Over.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Rich Hill

Walker (14-5, 4.05 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 142 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 6 K in a 6-4 home win vs. the Los Angeles Angels last Monday
  • 2023 road splits: 7-3, 4.98 ERA (65 IP, 36 ER), 9 HR, .271 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts

Hill (7-13, 5.26 ERA) makes his 27th start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 137 innings for the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits: 4-7, 5.34 ERA (84 1/3 IP, 50 ER), 13 HR, .273 OBA in 16 starts

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (-105) are a tremendous value behind the 14-game winner Walker. While the Phils dropped 2 of 3 in Milwaukee over the weekend, Philadelphia is a solid 8-4 across the past 12 games overall.

The Padres have been playing better baseball lately, but they just cannot seem to solve the Phillies this season, losing 3 of 4 meetings.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+150) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line.

Two of Philadelphia’s 3 victories against the Padres this season have been by 2 or more runs. Philadelphia is 5-3 on the run line in the past 8 games as a favorite. Back the road team.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-110) is the lean, but go very lightly.

The total has gone low at a 3-1-1 clip across the past 5 starts by Walker. However, the total went Over in each of the 4 previous meetings between these squads in Philadelphia July 14-16.

The Under has cashed in the past 2 games for the Padres, and the Under is 2-0-1 in the past 3 outings by the southpaw Hill.

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NLCS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres NLCS Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres continue their National League Championship Series Wednesday. First pitch in Game 2 at Petco Park is slated for 4:35 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0; won regular-season series 4-3

The Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 in their Wild Card Series and beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their Division Series to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2010. Now, after a masterfully pitched Game 1, Philadelphia is 6-1 this postseason. The Phils — who logged a 3.98 ERA in the regular season — have authored a 2.18 ERA over their 7 playoff games.

The Padres were also a wild card entrant into these October brackets and they have already defeated 212 wins worth of regular-season dominance in their series triumphs over the New York Mets (2-1) and Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1). San Diego had scored 4.20 RPG in its previous 5 games, but the Friars were held to just 1 hit in Tuesday’s series lid-lifter. RHP Zack Wheeler and 2 Phillies relievers combined to put the Padres to sleep.

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Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Blake Snell

Nola went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 205 IP in 32 starts in the regular season.

  • Had a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in his last 5 starts of the regular season
  • Has yielded just 1 unearned run in 13 2/3 IP over 2 playoff games this fall
  • Allowed 1R on 7 hits and 2 BB (10K) in 7 IP at San Diego June 24

Snell made 24 regular-season starts, posting an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA. He logged a 1.20 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 128 IP.

  • Has allowed 17 base runners but only 3R in 8 2/3 IP this postseason
  • Owns a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts against the Phillies (2021-22)

Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-230) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 2

Moneyline

Figure the Padres as being slightly overrated by their performance in 1-run games (30-17 in the regular season) and by what their pitchers have done in the postseason. San Diego has pitched well (2.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but it has also been the beneficiary of the Mets and Dodgers going a combined 9 of 57 (.158) with runners in scoring position.

The Philadelphia offense is at its best against left-handers and has gotten to Snell in past meetings.

BET PHILADELPHIA (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. There is too much juice and not enough leverage on the preferred Philly side.

Over/Under

The weather forecast calls for game temperatures in the high-80s. But an inward, pitcher’s-aid breeze is also in the forecast. Plus afternoon shadows could favor the men on the mound as well.

Nola and Snell profile as hurlers perhaps capable of even more than what shows in their surface lines. Both are backed by rested bullpens.

TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (+105).

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NLCS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres NLCS Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres open their National League Championship Series Tuesday. First pitch in the contest at Petco Park is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Philadelphia won 4-3

Philadelphia made the postseason field as a wild card. The Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 in their Wild Card Series and beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their Division Series to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2010. Philadelphia — which logged a 3.98 ERA in the regular season — has posted a 2.55 ERA over its 6 playoff games.

The Padres were also a wild card entrant into these October brackets and they have already defeated 212 regular season’s worth of wins in their series triumphs over the New York Mets (2-1) and Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1). Friars hurlers have piled up 66 strikeouts while posting a 2.80 ERA over 61 playoff frames.

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Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Wheeler made 26 starts in the regular season, going 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA. He notched a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 153 IP.

  • Owns his same 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last 69 games (2020-22)
  • Logged a 3.84 ERA on the road in the regular season (1.85 ERA at home)
  • Has allowed 3 ER on 6 hits in 12 1/3 IP this postseason
  • Has held current San Diego bats to an aggregate .651 OPS in past meetings

Darvish went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 0.95 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over 194 2/3 IP.

  • Has yielded 4 ER in 12 postseason innings this year, including 3 runs on 3 solo homers in his last start Wednesday at the Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Has held current Philadelphia batters to an aggregate .601 OPS in his career
  • Logged a 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across 86 2/3 home innings in the regular season

Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-220) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 2

Moneyline

Figure the Padres as being a tad overrated by their performance in 1-run games (30-17 in the regular season) and by what their pitchers have done in the postseason. San Diego has pitched well, but it has also been the beneficiary of the Mets and Dodgers going a combined 9 of 57 (.158) with runners in scoring position.

Yu Darvish has benefited from a .250 batting average on balls in play this season. In his career, he has notched a pedestrian 4.60 ERA across 45 playoff innings.

BET PHILADELPHIA (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. There is too much juice and not enough leverage on the preferred Philly side.

Over/Under

Both starting pitchers are quite good, and the bullpens are rested. The weather report calls for an inward breeze, and the Under is the lean. But don’t be satisfied with paying into that action — look for a +100 return or better and PASS until that point.

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) wrap up their 4-game series with the San Diego Padres (45-29) at Petco Park with Sunday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly is 2-1 in this series and has outscored San Diego 10-5. The Phillies-Padres season series is tied 3-3, but Philly has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.

The Phillies are 6-4 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games while the Padres are just 5-5 SU. The biggest news of this series is the Phillies lost OF Bryce Harper to a broken thumb after he was hit by a pitch Saturday night. He’s out indefinitely and figures to miss at least a month.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Yu Darvish      

Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 7-0, Tuesday at the Texas Rangers with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Padres: One start — a 2-0 home loss May 19 — with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 7 K.

Darvish is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 13 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-1, Monday at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start — a 2-0 win in Philly May 19 — with 7-scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 5 K.

Phillies at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Phillies 2

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the PADRES (-165) instead of betting to win 1 unit because this is an expensive ML, and we are getting the worst of the number.

But, Darvish’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Philly’s lineup are more impressive than Gibson’s vs. San Diego’s lineup. The Padres are 28-21 SU vs. righty starters while the Phillies are just 24-25 SU.

Also, the Padres are 4-1 SU as home favorites in Darvish’s starts with a plus-37.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average final score of 3.40-1.20.

Furthermore, San Diego’s bullpen ranks ahead of Philly’s in ERA (4.16-3.92), WHIP (1.40-1.07), xFIP (4.14-3.64) and K/BB rate (3.46-2.15), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market, and the oddsmakers are reacting to the presumed sharp side. More than half of the action is on the Phillies, but nearly 90% of the cash bet is on the Padres, per VegasInsider.com. Since San Diego’s ML has been steamed from a -135 opener up to the current number, the Padres appear to be the sharp play.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the PADRES (-165) to earn a $60.61 profit instead of betting $165 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

San Diego’s lineup produces less vs. right-handed pitching, and the Padres -1.5 (+133) are just 10-19 RL as home favorites whereas the Phillies +1.5 (-160) are 14-7 RL as road underdogs. Stick with San Diego’s ML.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-122).

San Diego is 0-5 O/U in Darvish’s 5 starts as a home favorite, Philly is 5-9 O/U in Gibson’s 14 starts, the Phillies-Padres are 1-5 O/U in their last 6 meetings and Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in the MLB.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) since San Diego’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (37-35) face the San Diego Padres (45-28) Saturday night for the 3rd game of their 4-game series in San Diego. First pitch is 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies at Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres lead the season series 3-2.

The Phillies won the opener 6-2 before dropping Game 2 of the series 1-0. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall but are 16-6 in their last 22 games.

The Padres, with their 1-0 win, have won 4 of their last 5 games. They are 15-7 in their last 22 games.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. LHP Blake Snell

Eflin (2-5, 4.43 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 63 IP.

  • He has allowed 8 runs in his last 8 innings over 2 outings, and the Phillies lost both those starts.
  • He faced the Padres once earlier this season and pitched well in a loss. The Phillies were shut out 3-0 in that game, but he allowed only 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings.

Snell (0-4, 5.46 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 29 2/3 IP.

  • The Padres have lost all of his starts.
  • His first start of the season was a 3-0 loss to the Phillies in May. He allowed all 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in only 3 2/3 innings.

Phillies at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 4

Money line

The Phillies’ bats have gone quiet in the last 5 games. They have scored only 5 total runs in their 4 losses. They scored 6 in their 1 win. But they should get some runs on the board against Snell, who has struggled thus far this season.

Eflin did well in his 1 outing against the Padres.

The Phillies are 18-18 on the road, while the Padres are 21-14 at home, where they have won 8 of their last 10 games.

I’m going with the underdog tonight. PHILLIES (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

Expecting a Phillies outright win, you want to PASS on the run line. At -205, you have to wager more than twice what you can win, while you can win more than you wager with a money line bet on Philly.

The Phillies are 19-17 ATS on the road and San Diego is 13-22 ATS at home.

Over/Under

Four of the 5 games between the 2 teams have had fewer than 8 runs.

However, each of Eflin’s last 5 starts had totals of at least 8 runs.

Eight of the Padres’ last 11 games had at least 8 runs.

Take OVER 7.5 (-112).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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