Tag: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres odds predictions pick betting line spread

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-34) open a 4-game series against the San Diego Padres (44-27) in the final stop of their 11-game road trip. First pitch for the opener Thursday is 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres lead the seasons series 2-1.

The Phillies, after winning the first 4 games of their road trip, have lost 3 straight. Even with the 3 straight losses, they are 15-5 in their last 20 games.

The Padres are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks at home. They have won 7 of their last 10 games.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Suarez (5-4, 4.43 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 65 IP.

  • Last start: Won 5-3 over the Washington Nationals June 17 with 3 R, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 5 2/3 innings.
  • Has 4-1 mark with a 3.86 ERA in 6 road starts.

Musgrove (8-0, 1.59 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 79 IP.

  • Has picked up the win in his last 3 starts and the Padres are 11-1 when he starts.
  • Has allowed no more than 2 ER in any start this season.

Phillies at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Phillies 2

Money line

Musgrove has been absolutely great this season, leading the league with a 1.59 ERA. The Padres have won 11 of his 12 starts.

The Phillies are 17-17 on the road this season but, despite the 3-game losing streak overall and on the road, they have won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

But Thursday’s result is based on the pitching matchup. Musgrove has been overwhelmingly good, while Suarez, while better on the road than at home, has been just okay.

Take the PADRES (-170), although the spread will be a better value for you this game.

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Run line/Against the spread

Of the 11 wins the Padres have with Musgrove on the mount, 9 have been by 2 or more runs. Thirteen of their last 15 victories have been by more than 1 run, so the question becomes whether you think the Padres will win outright or not. If you like the Phillies, take them on the money line.

Philly’s last 6 losses have been by more than 1 run.

But if you like the Padres to win outright, take them on the run line. Take PADRES -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under

The Phillies’ bats have gotten quite recently. They scored 7 total runs in their last 4 games combined.

The Padres, before scoring 10 on Wednesday in their series finale against Arizona, scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 straight games.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-120).

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (62-60) and San Diego Padres (67-57) play the second game of a three-game set at Petco Park Saturday with an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.48 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Nola coughed up four runs, six hits and three walks across 4 1/3 innings in a loss against Cincinnati last Sunday, and he hasn’t won in four outings dating back to July 25.
  • The right-hander has a dismal 5.56 ERA with a .259 opponent batting average with 12 homers allowed across 69 2/3 innings in 13 road outings.

Padres RHP Joe Musgrove (8-8, 3.11 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 133 1/3 IP.

  • Musgrove was tagged for six runs, 10 hits and two walks in five innings in a loss at Arizona last Saturday.
  • The righty has lasted at least six innings in four of his previous five outings.

Phillies at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Padres 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The PADRES (-180) are a little on the expensive side, and right at my personal money line limit of -180. However, they’re a strong play as they look to return the favor after being dropped 4-3 in the series opener.

Musgrove has been strong at home posting a 2.43 ERA with 89 strikeouts across 70 1/3 innings in 12 home outings, while Nola has struggled on the road. That’s the difference here.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PHILLIES +1.5 (-150) are a decent play on the road if you’d like a little insurance. I don’t like them to win outright, but I do like Philly to keep it close. They snapped a four-game losing streak in Friday’s game cashing as huge underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the play here. Philadelphia has really struggled to plate runs lately averaging 2.5 runs per game across the past 10 outings.

The Under cashed in Friday’s series opener and has hit in each of the previous four games for the Padres, too.

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