The Philadelphia Phillies (62-60) and San Diego Padres (67-57) play the second game of a three-game set at Petco Park Saturday with an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.48 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 134 2/3 IP.
- Nola coughed up four runs, six hits and three walks across 4 1/3 innings in a loss against Cincinnati last Sunday, and he hasn’t won in four outings dating back to July 25.
- The right-hander has a dismal 5.56 ERA with a .259 opponent batting average with 12 homers allowed across 69 2/3 innings in 13 road outings.
Padres RHP Joe Musgrove (8-8, 3.11 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 133 1/3 IP.
- Musgrove was tagged for six runs, 10 hits and two walks in five innings in a loss at Arizona last Saturday.
- The righty has lasted at least six innings in four of his previous five outings.
Phillies at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Padres 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
The PADRES (-180) are a little on the expensive side, and right at my personal money line limit of -180. However, they’re a strong play as they look to return the favor after being dropped 4-3 in the series opener.
Musgrove has been strong at home posting a 2.43 ERA with 89 strikeouts across 70 1/3 innings in 12 home outings, while Nola has struggled on the road. That’s the difference here.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The PHILLIES +1.5 (-150) are a decent play on the road if you’d like a little insurance. I don’t like them to win outright, but I do like Philly to keep it close. They snapped a four-game losing streak in Friday’s game cashing as huge underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the play here. Philadelphia has really struggled to plate runs lately averaging 2.5 runs per game across the past 10 outings.
The Under cashed in Friday’s series opener and has hit in each of the previous four games for the Padres, too.
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