Tag: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins odds predictions pick betting line spread

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The Philadelphia Phillies (28-12) and Miami Marlins (10-31) conclude a 3-game series Sunday with 1st pitch from loanDepot park slated for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0 with 8-2 and 8-3 wins

Philadelphia has outscored the Marlins 16-5 after another dominant victory on Saturday. 2B Bryson Stott finished with 2 hits and 4 RBI, headlined by a tiebreaking bases-loaded triple in the 6th inning. Starting RHP Taijuan Walker improved to 3-0, allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP. Philadelphia has won 13 of 15 and has the best record in baseball.

Miami held a 1-0 lead through 5 innings before dropping their 5th straight game. LHP Jesus Luzardo was the hard-luck loser (5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 8 K). The Marlins only offense were homers by SS Vidal Brujan and 3B Otto Lopez. Miami is 5-17 at home.

Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Wheeler (4-3, 1.64 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 49 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 11 K in a 6-1 win over the San Francisco Giants Monday
• 2023 vs Marlins: 0-0, 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER) in 3 starts

Garrett makes his 1st start of the season after dealing with shoulder soreness in spring training. He went 9-7, 3.66 ERA in 2023 with a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 159 2/3 IP.

• 2023 home stats: 3-4, 4.46 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 40 ER) in 16 games (15 starts)
• 2023 vs Marlins: 1-0, 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts

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Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -255 (bet $255 to win $100) | Marlins +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-137) | Marlins +1.5 (+114)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 1

Moneyline.

PASS.

I love the Phillies (-255) to win this game, but I’m not going to pay all that juice. I’ll take the more reasonable odds on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-137).

There is no real reason not to love the Phillies in this game. You’ve got the best record in baseball against the worst. Philadelphia has their ace on the mound pitching lights out and their offense is firing on all cylinders. And the added bonus, they get to face a lefty in Garrett which they hit .280 against as a team. The Marlins are 1-11 against NL east opponents. Oh, and the Marlins have a 5.35 team ERA at home this season.

Jump all over the Phillies. Even consider buying them at -2.5 (+118) or even at -3.5 (+196) for a nicer payout.

Over/Under

PASS.

Focus all your wagers on that run line. The Phillies could go over this total by themselves and my gut is telling me to take the Over, but you’ve got Wheeler on the mound who has allowed just 1 ER in his last 4 starts (25 1/3 IP). In their last 10 meetings, they are 4-5-1 against the Over. This line is pulling me in too many directions, so I’d rather just stay away.

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The Miami Marlins (10-29) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (26-12) to loanDepot Park Friday. First pitch to kick off their 3-game series is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 20023 series 7-6

The Phillies lost 1 of 2 at home to the Toronto Blue Jays and are coming off a 5-3 defeat Wednesday. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and are 11-2 over their last 13. Philadelphia sits atop the NL East and is 11-5 on the road, the 2nd-best win percentage in the majors.

The Marlins have lost 3 in a row and were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in their last series. Miami has won 4 of its last 9 at home, but is last in the NL East and is a league-worst 5-15 at home.

Phillies at Marlins projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Suarez (6-0, 1.72 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 47 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 14-3 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 3-0, 1.29 ERA, 21 IP, 3 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 17 K in 3 starts
• Career vs. Miami: 4-2, 3.24 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 61 H, 20 BB, 57 K in 7 starts (18 appearances)

Rogers (0-5, 6.15 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.72 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 20-4 road loss vs. the Oakland A’s Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 0-2, 4.35 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 10 ER, 23 H (1 HR), 8 BB, 20 K in 4 starts
• Career vs. Philadelphia: 1-5, 6.70 ERA (43 IP, 32 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 46 H, 21 BB, 47 K in 9 starts

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Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -196 (bet $196 to win $100) | Marlins +164 (bet $100 to win $164)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-120) | Marlins +1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Phillies are one of the best teams on the road while Miami is one of the worst at home. Philadelphia should have a major pitching advantage with Suarez as well.

At -196, there is no value in betting it to win outright.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).

The Phillies have won all 7 games which Suarez has started, and they have covered in 6 of them. They have won 5 games in a row which he has started by at least 4 runs. Philadelphia is 6-6 ATS as a road favorite as well which sits in the top half of the league.

The Marlins have lost 3 in a row and failed to cover a 1.5-point run line spread in each of those. They have failed to cover that size of a spread in 5 of their last 6 games and are 11-27 ATS on the season.

Put the trends together and back PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-105).

The Marlins have gone over in 4 of their last 5 games, allowing at least 6 runs in 3 of those. They are 21-17 O/U on the season and 4-3 O/U in Rogers’ starts.

The Phillies have gone Over in 3 of their last 5 games and have topped the total in 6 of their last 9, going 6-2-1 O/U in that stretch. Take OVER 7.5 (-105).

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The Philadelphia Phillies (58-50) and Miami Marlins (58-51) meet Thursday to cap off a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch will be at 12:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 5-4

Philadelphia lost 9-8 in 12 innings Wednesday, blowing a 5-0 lead and costing itself a chance at a sweep after winning the first two games of this series.

Miami clubbed 3 home runs for the 1st time since July 9 in Wednesday’s victory. The Fish have won 2 consecutive games just once since July 9.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Johnny Cueto

Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has logged a 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 105 2/3 IP with Detroit Tigers.

• Acquired from Tigers Tuesday
• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home loss vs. Los Angeles Angels Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.17 ERA in 48 1/3 IP across 8 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 2-2, 2.72 ERA in 39 2/3 IP across 4 starts and 11 relief appearances
• Thursday’s start will mark Lorenzen’s eighth since June 20; 6 of those have come against teams currently ranked in MLB’s bottom-12 on the scoring rolls

Cueto (0-2, 5.06 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 16 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-0 loss to Detroit Tigers Saturday
• Is 5-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 129 1/3 road innings since 2021
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 1-1, 4.83 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2015-21)
• Activated from the 60-day injured list (biceps) on July 10
• Owns a 3.46 ERA across 360 career games

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

The Marlins are a team to fade right now, but Lorenzen and a tired Philly bullpen don’t offer enough on the other side to make a successful, leveraged confirmation of that counter-Miami lean.

AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

Again, no value lean on either side. PASS.

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Over/Under

Games 1 and 2 were clear Unders. Game 3 saw the offenses battle back (although the pitching match-up had that game tabbed with some profitability on the Under). Look for game 4 to level this set with another high-scoring contest.

Figure Lorenzen and Cueto as iffy propositions to deliver a low run total to the latter innings of Thursday’s matinee. Lorenzen has been the beneficiary of some shoreless performances against lesser foes of late. For the season, he has benefited from a .264 batting average on balls in play.

Cueto is a question mark. Both bullpens are gassed.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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The Philadelphia Phillies (58-49) and Miami Marlins (57-51) meet Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 4-4

Miami has lost 3-1 Tuesday and 4-2 Monday, and is just 4-12 so far in the 2nd half. The Marlins are just 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position in this series.

The Phillies moved past Miami and into 2nd place in the NL East standings with Monday’s series-opening victory. Philadelphia has been streaky since the break but appears to be on an upswing now, going 5-2 since July 25.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Wheeler (8-5, 3.74 ERA) is making his 22nd start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 125 IP.

• Last start: win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K in 2-1 road win over Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
• 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.48 ERA in 64 2/3 IP across 11 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 2-1, 5.33 ERA in 27 IP (2021-23)
• 2.18 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across 3 starts since the All-Star break

Garrett (5-3, 4.08 ERA) is making his 21st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 106 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 H 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 6 K in 6-5 home win vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
• 2023 home stats: 2-2, 5.40 ERA in 55 IP across 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
• Career vs. Phillies: 2-1, 4.26 ERA in 19 IP (2020-23)
• Has registered a 5.92 ERA across 24 1/3 IP over 5 July starts

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 2

Moneyline

Peg this one as a close, low-scoring contest. No lean on the current prices: PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phils -1.5 (+135) are a lean in a vacuum on pricing, but both teams play a lot of close games. There are no hero points for playing with the hurdle. PASS.

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Over/Under

Philadelphia games have cashed the Under in 48 of the club’s last 90 games and profitably so (+12.85 Units, 13% ROI). Miami has hit its team total Under in 10 of its last 13 games (+6.64 Units, 44% ROI).

Both starters have season numbers that indicate a bit of bloat in their ERAs. In particular, Garrett’s 5.40 ERA at home is somewhat on the loose due to a .345 batting average on balls in play in those starts.

Other parts of the market have had this game at an even 7 runs for much of the betting ramp-up to this contest. There is some slight value to the UNDER 7.5 (-120).

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The Philadelphia Phillies (57-49) and Miami Marlins (57-50) clash Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East set. First pitch at loanDepot park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Miami leads 4-3

Miami dropped Monday’s series opener 4-2 and is just 4-11 so far in the 2nd half. The Marlins were 0-for-4 Monday with runners in scoring position and have zero hits in such situations over their last 3 losses.

The Phillies had been struggling on the road before Monday’s triumph. They had won just twice over 8 road tilts from July 8-30. With Monday’s victory, the Phils vaulted past the Fish and into 2nd place in the NL East standings, although both clubs are still more than 10 games behind the front-running Atlanta Braves.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Suarez (2-5, 4.22 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 79 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 2.95 ERA in 42 2/3 IP (2.65 ERA since 2021)
• Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 3-1, 1.63 ERA (2021-23)
• Notched a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across 5 July starts

Alcantara (4-9, 4.46 ERA) is making his 22nd start. He’s logged a 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 135 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-1 road win at Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday
• 2023 home stats: 1-4, 4.48 ERA in 60 1/3 IP
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 0-3, 5.46 ERA in 31 1/3 IP
• Logged a 3.31 ERA with 30 K and 6 BB over 33 innings across 5 starts in July

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:18 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Marlins have been a solid fade play since the break, but facing a lefty puts them on their best side at the plate. And Alcantara, who logged a 1.64 home ERA in 2022 and a 2.41 home mark in 2021, may not be too far off from the overall form he showed from 2020-22 when he clocked a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Miami has stark platoon splits: right-handers have held the Fish to a .698 OPS; lefties have been banged around to the tune of a .795 mark.

Alcantara had control problems early on and was not getting his typical big share of ground balls, but those issues have been cleaned up over recent starts and the results have been impressive. His 3.31 ERA in July included turns against the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, all of which are above-average scoring clubs. That stretch also included a July 7 home start against these same Phillies. In that effort, Alcantara allowed 1 run over 6 2/3 innings with 5 K’s and 0 walks.

TAKE MIAMI (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams have played more 1-run games than average. With a low total, it’d be best to AVOID the Marlins on the Run Line.

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Over/Under

Fairly priced for a couple of 2nd-division offenses and a decent pitching match-up in a pitcher’s yard. PASS.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (56-49) and the Miami Marlins (57-49) open a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-2

The Phillies enter this key series just a half-game behind the Marlins for 2nd place in the NL East. Philadelphia lost the final 2 games of a 3-game series at the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, allowing 13 total runs in the 2 setbacks. The Over cashed in both of those outings.

The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from the Detroit Tigers at home over the weekend. Miami has won 3 of its last 4 games while hitting the Over in each of those victories.

The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from July 7-9 the last time these teams faced each other in South Florida with the Over going 2-0-1 in that series.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Walker (11-4, 4.06 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 113 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 4-3 home win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
• 2023 road splits: 6-3, 5.25 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 34 ER – 8 HR), .274 opponent batting average (OBA) in 11 starts

Cabrera (5-6, 4.74 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 74 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K in a 4-1 road loss vs. the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 5-0, 2.61 ERA (31 IP, 9 ER – 3 HR), .204 OBA in 6 starts
• 2023 vs. Philadelphia: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 3-2 road win on April 12

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:21 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-105) are worth a look as short ‘dogs at home.

Miami has picked up 4 wins in 6 tries against Philadelphia this year, one of many reasons “Everyone is doin’ the Fish” in South Florida this season. The Marlins have picked up 3 wins in the past 4 home games and are 5-3 in the past 8 outings at loanDepot park — a stretch that includes wins in the final 2 games of a series vs. Philadelphia in early July.

Cabrera is also unbeaten in 5 decisions across 6 home starts, and he has held the opposition to a .204 batting average. Back the short ‘dogs with one of their best pitchers at home.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS +1.5 (-175) aren’t priced out of line if you require a little insurance and you just can’t play them straight up.

Miami is 3-7 in its last 10 games as an underdog on the run line, but 2 of those covers are in the most recent series against Philadelphia, including a straight-up 5-3 win as a -109 underdog on July 8.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in the series opener.

While the Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games overall for the Marlins, the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 starts by Cabrera. The Under is also 3-0 in Cabrera’s past 3 starts at home.

The Over is also 3-1 in the past 4 games overall for the Phillies, but the Under has connected in each of the past 2 starts by Walker and is 9-2-1 across the right-hander’s past 12 assignments.

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