Tag: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins odds predictions pick betting line spread

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (79-62) take on the Miami Marlins (58-84) Wednesday in the second game of a 3-game set at loanDepot park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 11-6

The Phillies snuck by with a 2-1 win Tuesday night against Miami’s ace RHP Sandy Alcantara. Philadelphia has won 4 games in a row and 6 of 7 as the Phils have really hit their stride since OF Bryce Harper came back.

The Marlins continue to fade and have won just 3 of their last 10 outings. Alcantara was solid until allowing a 2-run homer in the 7th inning Tuesday night. They have scored just 3.5 runs per game over their last 11 contests. It’s almost as if they need to score 4 runs to win as the only 3 times they’ve done so in the stretch has been a victory.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Gibson (9-6, 4.57 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 145 2/3 IP.

  • Last 2 starts: 6 2/3 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 5 BB and 4 K
  • 5 starts vs. Miami this year: 1-2, 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 6.7 K/9

Cabrera (5-2, 2.63 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 54 2/3 IP.

  • Beat Phillies on the road Aug. 11: 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K
  • Not as good at home with a 4.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 vs. 1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 on the road

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Money line

The Phillies roll Wednesday because taking a game late against Miami’s best could have a lasting effect. Philadelphia is scoring runs. Before that 2-1 finish Tuesday, they had scored 4 runs in 5 straight contests. They’ll do so again Wednesday, especially after Cabrera’s 5 innings.

Take the PHILLIES (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Speaking of the Phillies scoring 4 runs, that’s the direction we’re going here. I think the RL will hit for Philadelphia, but I don’t want to rely on its 18th-ranked bullpen in the event of a collapse.

Take the PHILLIES OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-145) in a pretty safe wager.

Over/Under

Gibson has been batted around in his last two starts, and Miami got to him for 4 ER over 5 IP in his last start. Cabrera has a 5.51 ERA over his last 3 turns. Philadelphia is 6-3-1 O/U and Miami is 6-4 over the last 10. The wind is blowing straight out to center field at 6 mph.

There is a 90% chance of rain, though, so watch that up to first pitch. LEAN OVER 7.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (46-43) head to loanDepot park Friday to start a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (43-45) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly is 5-5 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, but enters on a 4-game losing skid at the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays.

Miami is also 5-5 SU in the last 10 with 3 consecutive series splits with the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Marlins lead the season series with the Phillies 4-3 with a plus-7 run differential in those meetings.

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Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara 

Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 91 1/3 IP over 17 starts.

  • Last start: Won 1-0 Saturday at the Cardinals with 7 scoreless IP, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.

Alcantara is 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 130 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-0 win Sunday at the New York Mets with 7 scoreless IP, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Phillies at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Marlins -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Marlins -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 2

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the MARLINS (-170) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the expensive price tag.

Miami has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup and is more productive at the plate vs. right-handed pitching than the Phillies (+140).

Alcantara is the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young at -110 and has a quality start in 11 of his last 12 outings.

The Marlins are 6-3 SU as favorites with a plus-16.0% return on investment (ROI) with Alcantara on the mound and the total set at 7.5 or lower.

Also, Miami’s lineup is slightly better than Philly’s against right-handed pitching in wRC+ (104-97), wOBA (.311-.310), BB/K rate (0.35-0.33) and hard-hit rate (28.8-28.7%), according to FanGraphs.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the MARLINS (-170) to earn a $58.82 profit instead of betting $170 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Marlins -1.5 (+130) just isn’t a big enough payout considering they are 2-7 RL as favorites with a minus-45.0% ROI with Alcantara getting the nod and a total at 7.5 or lower. Also, the Phillies +1.5 (-160) are 18-8 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because the Marlins are 6-11-1 O/U when Alcantara gets the start and the Phillies are 7-10 O/U when Gibson is on the bump.

That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because most of the situational O/U trends point to the Over 6.5 (-135), we are getting by far the worst of the number since the Phillies-Marlins opened with a 7.5 total according to Pregame.com and Miami’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (3-3) and Miami Marlins (1-4) tussle Thursday for the opener of a four-game series at loanDepot park in Miami. First pitch is lined up for a 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 0-0 (Miami took 10-of-19 games from Philadelphia last season)

Philadelphia is playing its first road game of the season and heads into this series as losers of three of its last four games. Philly played just .432 ball (35-46) away from home last season.

The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in four straight games and overall have slashed a mere .199/.264/.313 (batting/on-base/slugging) so far.

Phillies at Marlins: Projected starters

Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson vs. Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara

Gibson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is making his second start. He allowed 2 H with 10 K across 7 IP in his debut.

  • Has clocked a .904 OPS-against facing current Miami bats.
  • Logged a 3.71 ERA across a combined 182 IP for the Phillies and Texas Rangers in 2021.

Alcantara (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his second start. He allowed 3 R (2 ER) on 3 H and 5 BB with 4 K across 5 IP.

  • Logged a 3.19 ERA in 205 2/3 IP last season. Posted a career-best 2.2 BB/9.
  • Phillies batters own an aggregate .776 OPS against him.

Phillies at Marlins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Marlins -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Marlins +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Phillies at Marlins prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 4

Money line

The Phillies have the deeper, more balanced lineup. They are a club that got more futures attention as Opening Day approached, and they’re worth a play in this spot.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-103).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS on this juice-drowned offering.

Over/Under

The starters’ 2021 lines were embellished by some favorable BABIP figures, and so there is some double-barreled fade lean there.

Both offenses have faced above-average pitching so far, and Miami has toiled around a .246 BABIP.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-122).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (69-66) wrap up their three-game series against the Miami Marlins (57-79) Sunday, hoping to avoid a series sweep. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies will have a bullpen game with RHP Sam Coonrod (2-2, 3.86 ERA) opening for the first time this season. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 32 2/3 IP in relief.

  • Only eight of his 31 appearances were for more than 1 inning.
  • In three appearances against the Marlins this season, he is 0-1 with an 3 ER allowed over 3 innings of work. He has given up 5 hits and 2 walks and has struck out 1.

Marlins RHP Elieser Hernandez (1-1, 3.62 ERA) makes his seventh start of the year. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 27 1/3 IP.

  • The Marlins won all three of Hernandez’s home starts this season.
  • He picked up his first win of the season in his last start, allowing 2 runs and 7 hits over 5  innings of a 7-5 Marlins victory over the Washington Nationals.

Phillies at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The Phillies lost the first two games of the series, which snapped a six-game win streak. They are 30-38 on the road this year.

The Marlins are 36-32 at home and have won four home games in a row, as well as winning six of their last seven. In two home starts in August, Hernandez had an ERA of 2.61.

Take the MARLINS (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies are 64-70 ATS this season and 33-35 ATS on the road. However, they are an abysmal 22-49 ATS when favored. They failed to cover their last three games and are 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games.

The Marlins are 70-65 ATS and are 37-31 ATS at home, the fifth-best home ATS record in the majors. They are 52-43 ATS as underdogs.

I expect an outright win by Miami in this game and the money line bet gives you better value, but if you want a little wiggle room from the spread, take the MARLINS +1.5 (-180).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the Phillies’ last 10 games have had totals of at least 8 runs. In four series between the two teams this season, no more than one game per series finished with a total of 8 or more.

They already had one such game this series.

Only three of the Marlins’ last 14 games had a total of 8 or more.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-108).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-24) and Miami Marlins (22-24) play the first of a four-game set Monday at loanDepot park with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9 over 57 1/3 IP through 9 starts.

Eflin was sharp against the Marlins Wednesday, allowing just two runs, six hits and no walks with six strikeouts across six innings in a quality start and loss at home.

However, Eflin is 1-2 with a dismal 5.68 ERA and .277 opponent batting average in 25 1/3 innings across four road outings.

LHP Trevor Rogers is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 6-2 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 51 2/3 IP through 9 starts.

Rogers has been on fire lately, posting three consecutive victories. That includes a win Wednesday in Philadelphia when he allowed just one earned run on a solo homer, five hits and two walks with eight strikeouts across 7 2/3 innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Phillies at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Marlins -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -125 | Under +105)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 1

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-135) are worth playing as moderate favorites as home as Rogers has been tremendous lately. He already beat the Phillies (+110) and Eflin in Philadelphia Wednesday, and the latter is worse on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS -1.5 (+165) are worth a small-unit play in this series opener in South Florida. Rogers is unlikely to allow very much, but Eflin has been hittable on the road, and that’s the difference here.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 6.5 (+105) is 3-1 in the past four starts for Rogers, and 6-3 across his nine outings overall. That includes Wednesday’s battle in Philadelphia. The Under has hit in Eflin’s past two outings, too.

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