Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat predictions pick betting line spread

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series tips off Monday when the No. 1 seed Miami Heat host the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami pulled off a gentleman’s sweep of the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks by beating them 97-94 in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home without SF Jimmy Butler, whose Game 1 status for this series is up in the air.

Philly blew out the No. 6 seed Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Thursday’s Game 6 on the road, but lost MVP finalist Joel Embiid, who suffered a fractured orbital bone and concussion in the fourth quarter. Embiid has already been ruled out for Games 1 and 2.

These teams tied 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their regular-season series and the total was 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

76ers at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): 76ers +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Heat -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
Against the spread: 76ers +7.5 (-115) | Heat -7.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
SG Tyler Herro (chest) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable

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76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, 76ers 101

Money line

PASS.

The Heat (-360) are 28-11 SU as home favorites with a plus-5.4 margin of victory this season and the 76ers (-360) are 8-8 SU as road underdogs with a minus-3.0 margin of victory.

More importantly, Philly is missing Embiid who’s going to be All-NBA and was sixth in on/off net rating at plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.

The Sixers upset the Heat March 21 on the second of a back-to-back as 8-point home underdogs when resting both SG James Harden and Embiid. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will apply lessons learned from that meeting and Philly’s short-handed strategy in Game 1.

However, I wouldn’t pay -360 for any NBA ML favorite so PASS.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107) for 1 unit because the 76ers +7.5 (-115) need their guards to step up in Embiid’s absence.

But we just saw Miami’s perimeter defense neutralize another ball-dominant point guard (Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young) in the first round. The Heat crushed the Hawks in the ball-security department and Miami has the highest defensive turnover rate (TOV%) in the postseason.

Philly’s ball security was an area of weakness in the first round. The Sixers are 12th in offensive TOV% and second-to-last in defensive TOV% for these playoffs.

These issues for the Sixers will be exacerbated by the loss of Embiid, who simplifies Philly’s offense and gets teammates open looks.

76ers SG Tyrese Maxey is having a breakout performance this season but lineups with Maxey on and Embiid off the floor scored 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions during the regular season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Finally, this is a very profitable spot for a Miami team that’s 15-9 ATS with a plus-3.1 ATS margin when playing with a rest advantage and 3-0 with a plus-22.0 ATS margin when playing on 4 or more days of rest.

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 208.5 (-110) only because this is a sharp number, both teams have run at a below-average pace and have a combined 2-9 O/U record thus far in the postseason.

However, Embiid’s loss will be felt more on defense for the Sixers since their opponent’s effective field goal shooting climbs by 11.7% when Embiid is off the floor, per CTG.

Also, we are seeing reverse line movement (RLM) headed north of the total since 76ers-Heat opened with a 207-point total but has been increased despite a majority of the action being on the Under, per VegasInsider.com.

RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.

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The Philadelphia 76ers (39-23) head to South Beach Saturday to play the Miami Heat (42-22) at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Philly is on a four-game win streak (3-1 against the spread (ATS)) following the All-Star Game and since acquiring SG James Harden from the Brooklyn Nets. The Sixers rallied back from an early double-digit deficit Friday to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 125-119.

Miami is 4-1 straight up (SU) and ATS since the All-Star break, most recently upsetting the Nets 113-107 Thursday in F Kevin Durant‘s return to action.

These teams are split are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the road team winning and covering each. Both 76ers-Heat meetings have gone Under the total.

76ers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): 76ers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread: 76ers +4.5 (-112) | Heat -4.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

SG James Harden (hamstring) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

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76ers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Sixers 102

Money line

PASS because once the news broke of Harden’s absence, Miami’s ML price became too rich for my blood.

Miami should win this game outright but the -180 tag on the Heat is just too much considering the Sixers still have the MVP favorite in C Joel Embiid in the projected starting 5.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-108) because there are still a lot of key contributors listed as “questionable” on Miami’s injury report. That said, this is a profitable spot for the Heat for various reasons.

Miami performs better against tough competition than Philly. The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a 60.0% or higher winning rate.

While the Sixers have a minus-6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 18th) and minus-5.6 ATS margin (ranked 27th) versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Furthermore, the Heat take care of business when playing fatigued teams. Miami is 11-3 SU (plus-11.0 margin of victory) and 10-4 ATS (plus-7.1 ATS margin) with a rest advantage.

The HEAT -4.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.