76ers Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (42-33) welcome the Philadelphia 76ers (41-35) to the Kaseya Center Thursday. Tip is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the 76ers vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Heat lead 2-1

The Heat are riding a 3-game win streak, coming off a 109-99 home win over the New York Knicks Tuesday and closing as a 2.5-point home favorite. They are 4-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 and 36-37-2 ATS on the season. Miami is led by F Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 21 points per game.

The 76ers have won 2 straight, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 109-105 on Tuesday as a 2.5-point home favorite. C Joel Embiid returned from a knee injury and has 24 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. The 76ers have lost 3 of their last 5 yet are 4-1 ATS in that stretch. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 and 42-33-1 ATS on the season. All 3 of Philadelphia’s top scorers are listed as questionable for Thursday.

76ers at Heat odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:08 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): 76ers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Heat -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +2.5 (-108) | Heat -2.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

F Robert Covington (knee) out
C Joel Embiid (knee) questionable
F Tobias Harris (knee) questionable
G Tyrese Maxey (hip) questionable

Heat

G Tyler Herro (foot) out
G Duncan Robinson (facet) available
G Terry Rozier (knee) available

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, 76ers 104

Moneyline

PASS.

The Heat (-142) are the play here and are the hotter and more in-sync team; however, the value is on the spread, not the moneyline. Given the Philadelphia (+120) injury situation, now is not the time to back it as an underdog.

Against the spread

BET HEAT -2.5 (-112).

The Heat have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5, taking down the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks at home in the last week and a half. They are 2-0 ATS in their last 2 games as a favorite of 0-5 points. Miami has the defense in C Bam Adebayo to limit one of the best scorers in the game in Embiid, who played Tuesday and should be active.

The 76ers have lost 3 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 8, but with their stars returning from injury, the spreads are starting to get narrower, having been an underdog of 6 or more in 6 of those 8. The Heat should have more need to win this game and are the healthier side.

Take HEAT -2.5 (-112).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 210.5 (-108).

The 76ers have gone Over in 4 of their last 6 games, scoring at least 109 points in 3 straight and at least 107 in 4 straight. They have allowed at least 107 in 5 of their last 6.

The Heat have gone Over in 3 straight, scoring at least 109 in each, and have gone Over in 5 of their last 7. With Robinson and Rozier both expected to play, the offensive firepower and shooting should be there as well.

Back OVER 210.5 (-108).

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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-21) visit the Miami Heat (33-29) on Wednesday. Tip from Miami-Dade Arena is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the 76ers vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Philadelphia fell 110-107 to the Boston Celtics Saturday, failing to cover as a 1-point home underdog. The loss snapped a 5-game win streak both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The 76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games to improve to 35-25 ATS this season.

Miami lost 108-103 to the Charlotte Hornets Saturday, failing to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite. It was its 4th loss in a row both SU and ATS. The Heat are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games to fall to 23-37-2 ATS on the season.

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76ers at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): 76ers -130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat +110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): 76ers -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

C Dewayne Dedmon (hip) out

Heat

F Kevin Love (knee) probable
G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
G Max Strus (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

76ers 109, Heat 103

Moneyline

PASS.

A play on the spread presents better odds for the Sixers.

Against the spread

LEAN 76ERS -1.5 (-115).

The Sixers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS when playing as 1-2.5 point favorites.

The Heat are just 1-4 ATS as 1-2.5-point underdogs, 9-19-1 ATS at home — including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games — and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-110).

The Under is 4-1-1 in the Sixers’ last 6 games overall, 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning outright record.

For the Heat, the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.

The Under is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 in Miami and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings overall.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Game 5 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia 76ers (2-2) visit FTX Arena Tuesday to take on the Miami Heat (2-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Philadelphia was fined for violating injury reporting rules for Game 3 as MVP finalist C Joel Embiid made his return to the court. The 76ers won both home games to even the series.

Embiid allows the Sixers to play bully ball on the interior, freeing up shooters. The typically slow-paced Sixers put up 116 points on the Heat in Game 4 behind 31 points from former MVP G James Harden.

The Heat are led by former Sixers F Jimmy Butler who poured in 40 points in Game 4. G Kyle Lowry and G Tyler Herro combining for 17 points doomed Miami.

The Heat have been unstoppable at home as they’ve gone 5-0 in the playoffs so far. They were 34-12 at home during the regular season, tied for the 4th-best home record in the NBA.

76ers at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.

Money line: 76ers +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Heat -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable

Heat

F P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
G Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable

[tipico]

76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 106, 76ers 101

Money line

PASS.

If there is a play here, it’s that the Sixers (+133) money line. That’s more so on the value and the fact this series, with Embiid, should generally have competitive down-to-the-wire games.

That said, I do like the Heat to come out on top and not drop 3 straight contests.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110).

The Heat have been dominant at home. They’ve averaged a 13.4 margin of victory at home this postseason and outscored the Sixers by 14 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2.

Embiid will be back for his first game of the series in South Beach, and he’s been impactful. But, the Heat have been a different animal at home all season long.

Miami is 34-26-1 against the spread (ATS) against conference opponents whereas the 76ers are 28-33-1 ATS. The Heat had the fourth-best regular-season defensive rating.

The Heat also ranked 5th in opponents’ three-point shooting whereas the Sixers are 3rd in three-point percentage.

Given Miami’s ability to limit what Philly is best at along with its dominance at home and success against mutual, in-conference opponents, I’ll take the Heat to cover here.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 208.5 (-107).

The Heat are 1-4 O/U during their playoff run.

I would expect some regression from Harden, who was 6-for-10 from deep in the Sixers’ Game 4 win. Harden was 4-for-19 in the first 3 games. Game 4 was his first time this postseason hitting more than 2 triples.

The Heat, led by dominant defenders like Tucker, Butler and Lowry, should be able to limit Harden. The Heat-Sixers have the slowest pace of any second-round series and both teams rank in the bottom five in pace among all 16 playoff teams as well.

This game shouldn’t be one played in transition. Considering the trends and playstyle, I’ll take the UNDER 208.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Game 1 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series tips off Monday when the No. 1 seed Miami Heat host the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami pulled off a gentleman’s sweep of the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks by beating them 97-94 in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home without SF Jimmy Butler, whose Game 1 status for this series is up in the air.

Philly blew out the No. 6 seed Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Thursday’s Game 6 on the road, but lost MVP finalist Joel Embiid, who suffered a fractured orbital bone and concussion in the fourth quarter. Embiid has already been ruled out for Games 1 and 2.

These teams tied 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their regular-season series and the total was 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

76ers at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): 76ers +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Heat -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
Against the spread: 76ers +7.5 (-115) | Heat -7.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
SG Tyler Herro (chest) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable

[tipico]

76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, 76ers 101

Money line

PASS.

The Heat (-360) are 28-11 SU as home favorites with a plus-5.4 margin of victory this season and the 76ers (-360) are 8-8 SU as road underdogs with a minus-3.0 margin of victory.

More importantly, Philly is missing Embiid who’s going to be All-NBA and was sixth in on/off net rating at plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.

The Sixers upset the Heat March 21 on the second of a back-to-back as 8-point home underdogs when resting both SG James Harden and Embiid. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will apply lessons learned from that meeting and Philly’s short-handed strategy in Game 1.

However, I wouldn’t pay -360 for any NBA ML favorite so PASS.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107) for 1 unit because the 76ers +7.5 (-115) need their guards to step up in Embiid’s absence.

But we just saw Miami’s perimeter defense neutralize another ball-dominant point guard (Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young) in the first round. The Heat crushed the Hawks in the ball-security department and Miami has the highest defensive turnover rate (TOV%) in the postseason.

Philly’s ball security was an area of weakness in the first round. The Sixers are 12th in offensive TOV% and second-to-last in defensive TOV% for these playoffs.

These issues for the Sixers will be exacerbated by the loss of Embiid, who simplifies Philly’s offense and gets teammates open looks.

76ers SG Tyrese Maxey is having a breakout performance this season but lineups with Maxey on and Embiid off the floor scored 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions during the regular season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Finally, this is a very profitable spot for a Miami team that’s 15-9 ATS with a plus-3.1 ATS margin when playing with a rest advantage and 3-0 with a plus-22.0 ATS margin when playing on 4 or more days of rest.

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 208.5 (-110) only because this is a sharp number, both teams have run at a below-average pace and have a combined 2-9 O/U record thus far in the postseason.

However, Embiid’s loss will be felt more on defense for the Sixers since their opponent’s effective field goal shooting climbs by 11.7% when Embiid is off the floor, per CTG.

Also, we are seeing reverse line movement (RLM) headed north of the total since 76ers-Heat opened with a 207-point total but has been increased despite a majority of the action being on the Under, per VegasInsider.com.

RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-23) head to South Beach Saturday to play the Miami Heat (42-22) at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Philly is on a four-game win streak (3-1 against the spread (ATS)) following the All-Star Game and since acquiring SG James Harden from the Brooklyn Nets. The Sixers rallied back from an early double-digit deficit Friday to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 125-119.

Miami is 4-1 straight up (SU) and ATS since the All-Star break, most recently upsetting the Nets 113-107 Thursday in F Kevin Durant‘s return to action.

These teams are split are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the road team winning and covering each. Both 76ers-Heat meetings have gone Under the total.

76ers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): 76ers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread: 76ers +4.5 (-112) | Heat -4.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

SG James Harden (hamstring) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

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76ers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Sixers 102

Money line

PASS because once the news broke of Harden’s absence, Miami’s ML price became too rich for my blood.

Miami should win this game outright but the -180 tag on the Heat is just too much considering the Sixers still have the MVP favorite in C Joel Embiid in the projected starting 5.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-108) because there are still a lot of key contributors listed as “questionable” on Miami’s injury report. That said, this is a profitable spot for the Heat for various reasons.

Miami performs better against tough competition than Philly. The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a 60.0% or higher winning rate.

While the Sixers have a minus-6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 18th) and minus-5.6 ATS margin (ranked 27th) versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Furthermore, the Heat take care of business when playing fatigued teams. Miami is 11-3 SU (plus-11.0 margin of victory) and 10-4 ATS (plus-7.1 ATS margin) with a rest advantage.

The HEAT -4.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-112) for a tiny wager, if at all. Most of the market will probably be on the Under since Harden will miss Saturday’s game and I hate following the herd in sports betting.

However, both teams are top-six in offensive FT/FGA rate but they might not have as much success getting to the charity stripe with these referees. The officiated crew assigned to this game has a combined 50-72 O/U record this season.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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