In ESPN’s 2020 College Football Playoff predictor, something seems to be a constant. The top three seeds will be an order of Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Since the creation of the playoff in 2014, these three teams are responsible for five out of the six national championships.
Going off those three teams making the playoffs, ESPN then put together percentage chances of different combinations with a fourth team. Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, and Wisconsin are all considered to be threats for the fourth spot.
Texas follows those six teams, coming in with an overall 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff. In comparison, the Longhorns had less than a 1% chance to make it last season. Here is what ESPN had to say about the Longhorns’ playoff hopes.
Is Texas back?
Maybe! A year ago — when there was legitimate Longhorns hype — we wrote about how our numbers saw Oklahoma as the only realistic playoff threat out of the Big 12. This year, that’s no longer the case. Texas has a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 at 39% — just a hair behind Oklahoma at 41%.
And playoff hopes are not totally out of the question. There’s about a 10% chance the Longhorns work their way into college football’s final four — well beyond the 0.5% shot we gave the team last season. Back then, Texas was staring at a large infusion of new starters. But now the Longhorns bring back Sam Ehlinger (15th in QBR last year) and FPI is forecasting big improvement from the Texas defense, which ranks in the top 20 in terms of experience.
The Sooners (15%) remain the Big 12’s best playoff hope, but they are not the conference’s only playoff hope.
Based on the percentages of the previous six mentioned teams and Texas, ESPN also put together scenarios in which they made it into the playoff with the three most likely teams, Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State.
Here is how it turned out:
- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Wisconsin – 5%
- Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Ohio State – 3%
- Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State – 3%
- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oregon – 3%
- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Penn State – 3%
- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma – 3%
- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas – 2%
Facing off against any of the Crimson Tide, Tigers, or Buckeyes would bring up interesting storylines.
With Alabama, it would bring up a revenge factor from the 2009 BCS National Championship. To this day, how the Longhorns would have performed with a healthy Colt McCoy is still one of the biggest ‘What ifs’ in program history.
Texas has not played Ohio State since the Fiesta Bowl after the 2008 season. The two also faced off in 2005 and 2006, playing in an all-time classic home and home series.
For Clemson, the two schools have no previous meetings. It would be the first time ever matching up. In the CFP era, the Tigers have been on par with Alabama, winning two national championships.
With the two playoff semi-final sites being the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, the Longhorns have fond memories of both venues. Texas beat Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl after finishing second in the Big 12.
As for the Rose Bowl, Vince Young and the historic 2005 team pulled off a win in the greatest college football game of all time.
Currently, Oklahoma still has the best odds in the Big 12. However, Texas’ odds are much greater than they were last season. A fourth season of Sam Ehlinger and 16 starters returning next season has given the Longhorns hope in the computer’s eyes.
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