2021 NFL Draft: First Pick Overall Odds, Best Bet Value Ranking

Who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft? The odds are out from BetMGM, and here’s our ranking from best values to worst.

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Who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft? The odds are out from BetMGM, and here’s our ranking from best values to worst. 


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We already know who the No. 1 overall pick is going to be in the 2021 NFL Draft, right? Sure we do … just like we knew last year at this time that fifth-round prospect Joe Burrow was going to turn into the must-have top pick overall.

Just like we knew that a quarterback smaller than your sister would end up being the top overall selection in 2019. And before Kyler Murray went to Arizona, it’s not like anyone had any idea that Baker Mayfield would somehow by the top overall pick for Cleveland in 2018.

This is hardly the slam dunk you might think it is.

BetMGM is out with its initial lines for the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Here’s our ranking from the worst value on up to the best of the bunch.

One quick note before we start. The Field isn’t an option. If it was, that would be the No. 1 choice here. And why? Again, Burrow, Murray, and Mayfield.

Here are all of the 30 prospects listed with the lines to be the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.


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30. WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

The hype will be huge coming off a fantastic 2019, but just getting close to the first round in a deep class of of wide receivers would be strong enough. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

29. WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State

Wallace will be in for a huge season if he stays healthy. However, it’ll be a long shot to be the No. 1 receiver taken, much less the top overall draft pick. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

28. CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State

He’s going to be among the next great Ohio State defensive backs, but great Ohio State defensive backs don’t go No. 1 overall.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +6600

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27. QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State

He is a quarterback, and he is going to throw for a ton of yards, but this isn’t the class to be just a quarterback who’s going to throw for a ton of yards. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

26. LB Micah Parsons, Penn State

I like his NFL game a lot more than most, but it would require something unreal for him to get into shouting distance of the top pick. At +2000, it’s not worth it as a flier.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +2000

25. RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State

Not only is a running back for an okay team in the SEC West not going to get the yards, he’s really not going to get the yards in the Mike Leach offense. The position it too devalued. It is +20,000, but … nah.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +20,000

24. WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

It’s hard enough for a wide receiver to be a top pick, much less one who’ll have to share the wealth with so many other talented stars on his own team. Waddle is special, but notice how many other Alabama guys are on this list.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000

23. OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan

A rising star prospect who should work his way into the first round, there’s going to be too much traffic at the position – forgetting about the quarterback talents – to earn the top pick.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

22. WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU

His game will be more than fantastic for the NFL, but he’s not exactly the prototype wideout. We’re talking about the No. 1 overall pick in a draft with phenomenal quarterback prospects – +5000 isn’t enough to get interested. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000

21. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC

The next-level talent is there for an offense that’s going to put up insane passing numbers, But he’s still a wide receiver.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

20. WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

The +5000 value isn’t enough to bite. A wide receiver isn’t going first, but Smith might play his way into a top 15 pick.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000

19. WR Justyn Ross, Clemson

As outstanding as he is, and as good as the +10,000 might look, he doesn’t have No. 1 overall pick talent. He’ll likely go around the 20.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

18. WR Rondale Moore, Purdue

The blazing speed and all-around playmaking ability could make him the first receiver off the board – think Henry Ruggs – but even at +10,000, don’t worry about him at the top spot.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000

17. CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama

All the NFL tools are there, but if Jeff Okudah couldn’t get higher than the No. 3 pick … it’s not going to happen for a corner in this draft.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000

16. RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State

Get ready for a theme here. There’s just no value at running back anymore. Even if there is – and Hubbard should be a great pro – it’s asking for way too much to make Hubbard No. 1 overall.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000

15. RB Travis Etienne, Clemson

+4000 isn’t enough to get excited about him as the No. 1 overall guy. He’ll have a fantastic season, and the speed is serious, but it’s a position problem – ask D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor about the value of being a great running back.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000

NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft: First Pick Overall Odds, Best Bet Value Top 15 Ranking

Five Oregon players who Badger fans need to know

Here are five Oregon Ducks who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout the 106th Rose Bowl game on New Years Day.

Here are five players on Oregon’s roster who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout Wednesday’s Rose Bowl Game.

Justin Herbert – Quarterback

2019 stats: 66.7% passing, 3,333 yds, 32 TD, 5 INT

Herbert almost certainly would have been a first-round selection in last year’s NFL draft after an excellent junior season, but the Eugene, Ore. native opted to return for his senior year for one last opportunity to lead his hometown Ducks to a Pac-12 title and College Football Playoff berth.

While he wasn’t able to accomplish the latter, Herbert is still a lock for the first round of this spring’s draft after enjoying the best statistical season of his career in 2019. The 6-6, 237-pound signal-caller has put up career-highs in both passing yards (No. 3 in the Pac-12) and touchdowns (No. 2), and his 158.7 passing efficiency rating (PER) is the third-best in the conference.

Herbert will end his college career near the top of several all-time (at least since 1956) Pac-12 lists, including career passing yards (currently No. 16), passing touchdowns (No. 6) and PER (No. 9).

CJ Verdell – Running Back

2019 stats: 6.5 YPC, 1,171 yds, 8 TD/14 rec, 125 yds (8.9 avg)

Oct 26, 2019; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks running back CJ Verdell (7) picks up a first down during the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Verdell won’t be the best running back to take the field in Wednesday’s Rose Bowl Game (that distinction goes to No. 23 in the Cardinal and White), but make no mistake, that is very rarely the case.

The sophomore from Chula Vista, Calif. had a huge redshirt freshman season in 2018 as the only Power 5 player nationally with at least 1,000 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving, and he has not fallen off a bit this year. A Second-Team All-Pac-12 performer this season, Verdell ranks at the top of the conference in yards per carry and is second in rushing yards.

Aside from J.K. Dobbins of Ohio State, this is the most talented back the Wisconsin defense has faced all season.

NEXT: Penei Sewell/Troy Dye/Kayvon Thibodeaux

Tyler Biadasz, Penei Sewell take center stage in the Rose Bowl

A look at the Rose Bowl’s two best offensive linemen

Aside from prolific running backs and outstanding quarterback play, the 2020 Rose Bowl will also feature a rare matchup of two first-round offensive linemen playing for different teams. Both the Wisconsin Badgers and the Oregon Ducks are fielding two of the nation’s premier offensive linemen and both men will be critical to their team’s success on January 1. While their styles of play and positional objectives are vastly different, their levels of importance to their teams and what they do on offense are extremely similar. If they are having a good day as individual players, their teams are usually having a good day as well. 

For the Wisconsin Badgers, Tyler Biadasz takes the field as the Rimington Trophy winner, given to the nation’s top center. He was a first-team Big Ten selection and an AP All-American. Picked by several pundits as the No. 1 interior lineman in the upcoming NFL Draft, Biadasz has yet to declare his intentions but surely must be weighing his options after an impressive haul of personal awards. As crazy as it may seem with Wisconsin having such a pronounced history of successful running backs, Biadasz is the Badgers’ first-ever Rimington Trophy winner. There’s not much left for him to win as a center. Biadasz can do it all. He’s sound in pass protection and firm off the ball as a run-blocker. In fact, he was a finalist for another trophy that will be mentioned in this column — The Outland Trophy. 

The winner of this year’s Outland Trophy, given to the nation’s top interior lineman, was Penei Sewell of Oregon. Sewell and Biadasz going pro in the same class would give general managers sleepless nights when making a decision between the two, but fortunately for the GMs, Sewell has another year to play before he is eligible to go pro. He will certainly be talked about as a top-10 pick when he does go pro, however. In 466 pass-blocking snaps, Sewell has allowed only seven pressures and zero sacks. Sewell gets the job done. 

Both of these offensive linemen are critical to what their teams do on offense. Sewell’s ability to keep Oregon QB Justin Herbert clean has allowed Herbert to throw for 3,333 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. As talked about in our look at the quarterbacks in this game, the ability to play mistake-free and turnover-free football has enabled these teams to thrive against tough competition. On the other side, Biadasz has led the way for the nation’s top running back two years in a row. Jonathan Taylor is part of a running back room that ran for more than 1,400 of Wisconsin’s 3,127 total rushing yards up the middle

In any other year, Justin Herbert is likely being fawned over and projected as a No. 1 overall pick. But Joe Burrow isn’t any other player and he has stolen a lot of shine from Herbert. As a result, people have somewhat overlooked how dominant Sewell is on that Oregon offensive line. Just put on tape of the Ducks’ passing game; his play will immediately jump out at you. There won’t be a need to ask which player he is, that will become evident in less than a minute. 

If Sewell and the Ducks can keep Herbert clean, they’ll have a chance to pick apart Wisconsin’s 16th-ranked passing defense… or, as an alternative viewpoint, Wisconsin will have a chance to show the nation why its defense is ranked that high. The Badgers have the nation’s 14th-ranked passing efficiency defense. Given Oregon’s run defense ranking, one of these things is likely to break in Pasadena. 

The Ducks will have to find a way to budge Biadasz off the snap and get to Taylor. If Wisconsin can block for Taylor, he will have a chance to humble Oregon’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. The Badgers enter the game with the nation’s 15th-ranked rushing offense. The Ducks are either going to shut Taylor down, or Taylor is going to show the nation why he’s the Doak Walker Award winner, given to the nation’s top running back, two years in a row. 

There are already many reasons to tune in to the 2020 Rose Bowl. There are prolific running backs, NFL-ready quarterbacks, solid defenses, and the guys up front deserve some love. If you’re into offensive line play, this really is the game to watch. You won’t find a bowl game with two better offensive linemen on the same field. Tyler Biadasz and Penei Sewell are the cogs in the wheels of these offenses.