2021 NFL Draft: First Pick Overall Odds, Best Bet Value Top 15 Ranking
14. RB Najee Harris, Alabama
At +8000 he’s getting a better value than some of the other running backs, and he’s got the bulk to potentially be the first one off the board, but this isn’t the gong to be the draft to be a top back.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
13. OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
You’d like the value to be a bit higher than +4000, but throw Leatherwood into the mix of top offensive tackles with the belief that someone might want to beef up the O line with the top spot.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
12. OT Sam Cosmi, Texas
At +8000, it’s not an insane shot for the stars. Okay, it is – he’s not a lock to be a first rounder – however, offensive tackles are going to be at a premium in the 2021 NFL Draft. You’re only thinking about this for the value.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
11. QB D’Eriq King, Miami
There’s just no value at +1400. Way, way too many things would have to happen for King to have the massive season needed to be the No. 1 overall pick, and that would include something going wrong with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +1400
10. QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Here’s the thing – if the season goes off as planned, and Ehlinger goes off at LSU and against Oklahoma, he might just push his way into the discussion. He’s more like a late Day Two quarterback pick at best, but he is a big-time starter on a big-name team for +8000.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
9. QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
He’s a veteran starting quarterback at a program that’s way, way, way overdue to bust out and be in the mix for something important. At +10,000, it’s just enough of a moon shot to at least give it a thought.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
8. QB Kyle Trask, Florida
It’s not going to happen. There will not be another Joe Burrow story where a guy goes from the just-a-guy pile into all-time greatness, but … Trask sort of fits. He’s a veteran quarterback who should be in for a massive season. Florida won’t pull off a 2019 LSU, but at +10,000, going with a quarterback with NFL skills on a top team isn’t all that crazy.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
7. DE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
It’s been a while – Myles Garrett in 2017 – since a superstar pass rusher went No. 1 overall. Chase Young was the best player in this year’s draft, but it’s a quarterback world now. Rousseau is a bit tall and rangy for the top spot, but he’ll likely be the top pass rusher coming out.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
6. QB Jamie Newman, Georgia
He’d be a whole lot higher than this if the value was any stronger than +4000. If he can be the one to lead Georgia to the national title – or close to it – the scouts are going to fall in love with his game. He’s got the size and the arm to look the part.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
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5. QB KJ Costello, Mississippi State
Just be warned – I’m not thinking clearly on this. I’ve spent all offseason so far stumping for Costello to be this year’s college football big thing, and he isn’t even a part of the program yet. If he can stay healthy, he’ll put up astronomical numbers in the Mike Leach offense. NFL tools-wise, he’s right there with any quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
4. OT Walker Little, Stanford
If it’s not one of the star quarterbacks going up top – maybe the team with the top overall pick needs a big-time left tackle – Little has the talent and upside to be the guy. His injury history might keep that from happening, but … +10,000.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
3. QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
At -250 there’s no real value. He’s the best player and prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft … for now. However, Tua Tagovailoa was the No. 1 prospect for the 2020 draft last year at this time. There’s a shot – and it might be more real than you think – that he pulls a Peyton Manning and sticks around for his senior year. Don’t strain yourself, though. If everything goes according to plan, he’s the No. 1 pick in the draft without a whole lot of questioning.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: -250
2. OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
There’s a great chance that a team with a franchise quarterback in place gets the No. 1 overall pick. If that’s the case, it’ll probably trade out of the spot to someone who’ll want one of the top quarterbacks, but there’s a terrific chance that – say, Miami – would love to have a franchise star at tackle protecting the star.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +500
1. QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Fields at +350 has a slew of positives going his way for the No. 1 slot. First, some team might like his all-around game better than Trevor Lawrence’s. Second, if there’s any injury hiccup to Lawrence, Fields might be a lock, and third – again – Lawrence might return to Clemson.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +350
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