The New England Patriots (8-8) visit the Buffalo Bills (12-5) with playoff aspirations on the line Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
After beating the Miami Dolphins 23-21 as 3-point home favorites New Year’s Day, the Patriots and QB Mac Jones are still alive for the playoffs, but they really need to win Sunday.
They’re in if they win. If they lose, they need the Jaguars to win Saturday night at home against the Titans and the Steelers to lose Sunday at home to the Browns.
Jones, who has only thrown 11 TDs this season (tied for 28th among QBs), will need to perform Sunday against an emotional Bills team coming off a devastating circumstance in Week 17. S Damar Hamlin collapsed after a play and needed CPR on the field in the 1st quarter at the Bengals on Monday Night Football, leading to the cancelation of the game.
The good news is that Hamlin has shown “substantial improvement” in his recovery at a Cincinnati hospital.
Meanwhile, QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs will try to spoil the Patriots’ playoff dreams as the Bills look to win in order to secure the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
When the Bills won at the Patriots 24-10 in their 1st meeting this season — in the Week 13 Thursday night game — Allen threw for 223 yards and 2 TDs and RB Devin Singletary rushed for 51 yards and a TD. Two weeks ago, RB James Cook had his best performance of the season, rushing for 99 yards and 1 TD on 11 carries in a 35-13 win at Chicago. The backfield combination of Singletary and Cook will be tough for the Patriots to handle.
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Patriots at Bills odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Bills -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +7.5 (-109) | Bills -7.5 (-111)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Patriots at Bills key injuries
Patriots
- CB Jonathan Jones (chest) questionable
- WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder) questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (groin) out
- TE Jonnu Smith (concussion) out
Bills
- S Damar Hamlin out
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Patriots at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 27, Patriots 13
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no question that Buffalo (-380) is the better team. The Bills will be playing with a ton of emotion. There is no chance they lose, but the price is steep. Only include Buffalo (-380) in a parlay if you want to bet this matchup.
Against the spread
BUFFALO -7.5 (-111) is the way to bet this game.
Buffalo is 7-7-1 ATS this season. This includes the 24-10 victory as a 3.5-point favorite at New England Dec. 1.
Sunday will be a mirror of that game as Buffalo will be able to pass on the Patriots, who are missing much of their secondary to injuries. Not only will the Bills win, but they will do so emphatically.
Over/Under
UNDER 43.5 (-111) is the correct side.
The Under is 10-5 in Buffalo games this season, while the Under is 7-9 in New England games.
With TE Jonnu Smith out with an injury and WRs DeVante Parker and Jakobi Meyers ailing, the Patriots only have RB Rhamondre Stevenson as a healthy weapon on offense. Buffalo’s defense will be able to swallow him up and limit New England’s ability to score.
While Buffalo is healthy on offense, it will not have an offensive explosion, helping the Under cash. Allen will do enough to win and cover the 7-point spread, but doing enough to get to the total, something the Bills have been routinely unable to do, might be asking too much.
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