The San Diego Padres (43-47) return to action with a 4-game weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies (48-41) beginning on Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 4 of 7 in 2022
After dropping 6 straight games to end June, the Padres turned things around just before the All-Star break, winning 6 of their last 8 games while scoring 52 runs in that span (6.5 per game).
The Phillies dropped their final 2 games leading up to the break, but had been red-hot prior to last weekend. They just had a 30-game stretch in which they went 23-7, putting themselves right back in the mix for a playoff berth.
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Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Darvish (5-6, 4.87 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 85 innings.
- Has a 6.59 ERA over his last 8 starts, though he has been hurt by some bad luck in the form of a .342 BABIP, a 60.2% LOB%, and a 17.1% HR/F
- Owns a 6.16 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, and 8.3 K/9 in 7 road starts this season
Sanchez (0-2, 2.84 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.
- Has been stingy with the walks since his promotion, but his track record suggests that won’t last; had a 5.3 BB/9 at Triple-A this year and a 4.2 BB/9 in 450 1/3 career minor league innings
- In 3 starts at home, he has allowed 7 ER in 15 1/3 IP (4.11 ERA) with a 15/3 K/BB and 2 HR allowed
- Throwing his changeup more than he has the past 2 seasons in the majors and he has a 42.0% whiff% on the pitch along with a .130 batting average against.
Padres at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
San Diego’s offense was clicking on all cylinders prior to the break. Sanchez has performed well in his small sample so far, but his minor league track record isn’t all that impressive and he’ll face a tough test Friday night. Look for the PADRES -115 to stay hot and come out on top.
Run line/Against the spread
Darvish is capable of delivering a dominant start at any time, but has been struggling lately. While the San Diego offense should give him enough support to win the game, it’s likely to be close throughout. PASS on the run line.
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Over/Under
Sanchez is off to a hot start, but has probably been pitching over his head. Darvish hasn’t flashed his typical skills lately and has struggled on the road this season. This is a good park for offense and both teams should do their part in helping push this total OVER 9.5 (+100).
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