Tag: Padres Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (37-40) and Philadelphia Phillies (49-24) close out a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 5-0

Philadelphia won 4-3 Tuesday while covering as a -159 home favorite. The Phillies scored 3 runs in the 8th and 9th innings to come back a 3-1 deficit with OF Nick Castellanos delivering the walk-off game-winning RBI double.

Padres reliever Robert Suarez allowed 2 ER and 4 H in 1/3 IP to take the loss. San Diego has lost 5 straight games on the road.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Matt Waldron vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Waldron (4-6, 3.66 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K in a 2-1 loss at the New York Mets Friday
  • Career vs. Philadelphia: 0-0, 5.79 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 relief appearance

Suarez (10-1, 1.77 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 86 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 win in Baltimore against the Orioles Friday
  • Career vs. San Diego: 3-0, 2.16 ERA (25 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 5 BB, 17 K in 6 appearances (3 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:31 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Phillies -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-154) | Phillies -1.5 (+128)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Padres 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The run line offers better value on a Phillies win.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+128).

I like the Phillies to cover here as home favorites as I don’t expect back-to-back matchups between these squads to finish with a 1-run margin.

The Phillies are 3-1 in their last 4 home games while the Padres have dropped 5 consecutive road games. Philadelphia is 29-9 at home on the year and San Diego is only 18-19 on the road this season. Philly is also 9-1 in its last 10 vs. San Diego, winning each of the last 6 meetings.

Also, before Tuesday the Phillies’ last 13 wins had all been by multiple runs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in 2 of San Diego’s last 3 road games and is 5-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 7 overall. The Over has also hit in 7 of the last 10 San Diego-Philadelphia matchups, being 2-1 in the last 3 meetings.

This is only a lean because the Under has hit in 3 of Philly’s last 4 at home and because the Under is 3-2 in San Diego’s last 5 overall.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (37-39) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (48-24) Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 1-0

The Friars dropped their 4th straight with a 9-2 setback Monday. They lead the majors with a .259 batting average but are just tied for 12th with 4.4 R/game. They have 2 starting pitchers on the IL, which contributes to their 17th-ranked 4.07 ERA.

The Phillies are tied for 1st with 5.1 R/game. They’re also 3rd with a 3.14 ERA. Monday’s win was just their 2nd win in 6 games, but they’re still 11-9 over the last 20. DH Kyle Schwarber went 2-for-3 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs Monday. He’s hitting .291 with 5 HR and 12 RBIs this month. His .253 BA is the highest it has been since April 13.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Michael King vs. RHP Aaron Nola

King (5-4, 3.58 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.23  WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 83 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 5-4 home win Wednesday against Oakland A’s
  • Career vs. Phillies: 2 games, 1 start, 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER (8.10 ERA), 1.95 WHIP, 7 K
  • Allowed 6 ER over 5 1/3 IP with 6 K’s vs. PHI April 28

Nola (8-3, 3.48 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 88 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-3 setback Thursday at Boston Red Sox
  • Last 5 GS vs. Padres: 2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 41 K in 35 IP
  • April 26 at Padres: Win, 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 10 K

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $130)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

I know King got lit up in his start against the Phils earlier this year, but he has a miniscule 1.64 ERA over his last 4 starts. He also has 28 K’s over 22 IP in those starts. Nola got hit hard in Fenway last time out, and he’s about the same pitcher at home as opposed to the road.

The Padres have lost 4 in a row, and the Phillies have beaten them 9 of 10 times. We break that mold Tuesday.

Take the PADRES +120.

Run line/Against the spread

Nola’s 8.0 K/9 is the 2nd-lowest of his career, but he has 5+ K’s in 9 of his last 12 starts. He also has 10+ K’s in his last 3 against San Diego and 5+ in his last 5 starts against it. His home K/9 is also better at 8.3 as opposed to 7.5 on the road.

I like AARON NOLA OVER 4.5 K’s (-155).

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Over/Under

This had an Over feel even before I saw the wind blowing out to straightaway center at 10 mph Tuesday night. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, 6-4 in the last 10 Padres games and 5-4-1 in the last 10 Phillies games.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-120).

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (37-38) and Philadelphia Phillies (47-24) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 3-0

San Diego lost 11-6 to the New York Mets Sunday, failing to cover as a -140 road favorite. The Padres have dropped 3 straight games after winning 3 in a row.

Philadelphia was routed 8-3 by the Baltimore Orioles Sunday while failing to cover as a +124 road underdog. Philly has lost back-to-back games and 5 of its last 7.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. LHP Christopher Sanchez

Vasquez (1-3, 4.93 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 38 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 4-3 win over the Oakland A’s Tuesday
  • First career start vs. Philadelphia

Sanchez (3-3, 3.07 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 70 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in an 8-6 loss in Boston to the Red Sox on Wednesday
  • Career vs. San Diego: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 1 start

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Phillies -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Padres 4

Moneyline

PASS.

I expect Philly (-172) to pick up the win as the Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. San Diego, but the line is too risky to advise betting on. Bet on the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN PHILLIES -1.5 (+115).

The Phillies have been dominant vs. San Diego recently, only allowing the Padres to come within 1-run in 1 of their last 8 wins vs. San Diego. This is only a lean because both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games and because neither team has been great ATS this season. Philadelphia is 39-32 ATS while the Padres are 36-39 ATS.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games overall and is 5-5 in San Diego’s last 10 games. The Over is also 2-1 in the last 3 San Diego-Philadelphia matchups, being 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

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NLCS Game 4: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 4 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday for Game 4 of their best-of-7 National League Championship Series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

NLCS: Phillies lead 2-1
Regular-season series: Phillies won 4-3

The Padres came in 2nd in the NL West Division with an 89-73 record, only behind the Dodgers (111-51), who they defeated in the NLDS 3 games to 1. San Diego eliminated L.A. after taking the final 2 games of the series.

The Phillies placed 3rd in a loaded NL East Division with an 87-75 record, behind the Braves (101-61) and the Mets (101-61). After sweeping the Cardinals 2-0 in a Wild Card Series, they eliminated the Braves 3 games to 1 in the NLDS — also winning the final 2 games like the Padres did in their Division Series.

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Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Mike Clevinger vs. LHP Bailey Falter

Clevinger went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 114 1/3 IP in 22 starts and 1 relief outing in the regular season.

  • Losing pitcher in Game 1 of NLDS vs. Dodgers, allowing 5 runs (4 ER) on 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB in 2 2/3 IP with 3 K
  • Career postseason: 0-1, 5.74 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.98 WHIP, 4 HR, 17 BB, 19 K in 7 relief outings for Cleveland and 2 appearances (1 start) for San Diego
  • 2022 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 3-0 road victory May 17

Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 84.0 IP in 20 appearances (16 starts) in the regular season.

  • Making 1st career postseason appearance
  • Facing Padres 1st time in 2-year career
  • Career regular-season: 8-5, 4.36 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 in 42 appearances (17 starts)

Padres at Phillies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:47 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

LEAN PADRES (-108). This is the riskiest play of my 3 suggestions.

The odds are close to even for a reason. These 2 clubs are so evenly matched, it’s hard to pick a winner for any of the games. Few people saw either of these teams making it this far in the playoffs, and don’t be shocked when these teams continue to surprise you.

Either team could win this game, but I don’t see San Diego losing 2 in a row, even if it is in Philadelphia. Expect Padres 3B Manny Machado and RF Juan Soto to show up big time in this one.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).

Each of the first 3 games in this series have been decided by 2 or more runs, and I don’t expect that to change in Game 4. While it won’t be easy for the Padres to cover the spread in Citizens Bank Park, in order for them to win the game, they will have to. Even with Soto playing poorly both in the field and at the plate (.182 batting average — 2 for 11, 1 RBI), he will need to show up Saturday for them to win.

Expect the less experienced pitcher (Falter) to have a tough time in this outing.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-130).

This is the BEST BET. Only 1 of the 3 NLCS games went Over 8.5 runs, and it won’t happy Saturday either.

So far in this series, the team that had the big inning has won the game. That should continue here. The Padres can’t let the home crowd get into the game. If it turns into a high-scoring affair with a lot of excitement on both ends — like Game 2, which the Padres won 8-4 — San Diego will lose.

The Philadelphia crowd will play a major role, but as long as the Padres can silence the home fans, Game 4 will stay UNDER 8.5 (-130).

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NLCS Game 3: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies continue their best-of-7 National League Championship Series Friday. First pitch for Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 7:37 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

NLCS: tied 1-1
Regular-season series: Philadelphia won 4-3

San Diego bounced back from an opening-game setback with an 8-5 win in Game 2 Wednesday. The Padres had 13 hits — including 3 home runs — in piling up their most runs in a single home game since Aug. 10. The Friars now head on the road where they are 3-2 in the playoffs and 8-3 since Sept. 16.

The Phillies had a 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday to fall to 6-2 in the postseason. Philadelphia hurlers have compiled a 2.96 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over that stretch. The Phils ended the season on a long road trip and have only played 2 home games since Sept. 25. However, they are 16-5 at Citizens Bank Park dating back to Aug. 22.

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Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Joe Musgrove vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Musgrove logged 30 starts in the regular season. He went 10-7 with 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over 181 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 R on 7 H and 4 BB with 13 K through 13 IP over 2 starts this postseason
  • Current Philadelphia bats own a whiff-heavy .613 OPS against him

Suarez logged a 10-7 record and a 3.65 ERA in 29 regular-season starts. He posted a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 155 1/3 IP.

  • Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
  • Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
  • Allowed 1 R on 3 H and 5 K over 3 1/3 IP at the Atlanta Braves Oct. 11 in his only start this postseason

Padres at Phillies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

Consider a line watch. The current tags are mostly dialed in but peg the Padres as being a tad overrated in this spot. Musgrove is gettable in the third time around, and neither bullpen inspires a ton of confidence.

Philadelphia looked great over the last few weeks and at home against the Braves in the NLDS. A Phillies +100 play would have some leverage to it.

PASS, but circle back later in the day.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: a lot of juice to work around here.

Over/Under

The Phillies have had some 2nd-half slumps against righties. However, those dry spells were without DH Bryce Harper, who has come on strong to slash a 419/.455/.936 (1.390 OPS) during these playoffs.

Both starting pitchers had some situational good fortune that tamped down their ERAs this season. Musgrove, for example, pitched through a .277 batting average on balls in play, a .238 BABIP in high-leverage situations and a .202 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-105).

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (23-14) wrap up their 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (18-19) Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego won the series opener 3-0 Tuesday thanks to a 10 K, 0 BB and 5 H performance by the pitching staff, which included a quality start out of Padres RHP Mike Clevinger.

Philadelphia evened the series Wednesday with a 3-0 victory on the strength of a 7-scoreless IP performance from Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler with 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Kyle Gibson 

Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 39 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 11-6 win at the Atlanta Braves Friday with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: Loss, 4-2, in Philly July 3 with 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.77 FIP with a .246/.319/.447 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 24.4 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).

Gibson is 3-1 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over 37 1/3 IP across 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 12-10 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: Win, 7-4, at home Aug. 22 with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 4.14 FIP with a .289/.352/.414 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.9 K% and 91.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 168 PA.

Padres at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+165) | Phillies +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 2

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-120) because I give them a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Padres have struggled significantly at the plate recently.

Both Gibson and Darvish have pitched much better at home compared to on the road. In fact, Gibson is 3-0 at home with a 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 8.5 K/BB rate while Darvish is 1-1 on the road with a 7.91 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB rate.

The Padres batters are 26th in both wRC+ (85) and wOBA (.282) and 25th in hard-hit rate (35.8%) over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. San Diego’s lineup also ranks in the bottom-10 in wRC+ (91), wOBA (.290), hard-hit rate (28.4%) and groundball rate (44.9%) vs. right-handed pitching.

BET 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-120).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because Darvish has shown flashes of his former dominant self at times this season and the Padres are 14-6 RL on the road.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) because of the San Diego lineup’s aforementioned struggles and these teams have a combined 5-9 O/U record when these starters take the mound. It’s only a lean because Philly’s ML is my favorite wager in this game and this total could steam up to 8 or higher.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (23-13) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (17-19) for the second game of their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego won the series opener 3-0 Tuesday thanks to a 10 K, 0 BB and 5 H performance by the pitching staff, which included a quality start out of Padres RHP Mike Clevinger.

Philly has lost back-to-back games but is 6-4 overall in its last 10 games. San Diego has won 3 of its last 4 games and is also 6-4 overall in its last 10.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Zack Wheeler 

Snell is making his 2022 debut for the Padres after dealing with a groin injury that kept him sidelined thus far.

  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.79 FIP with a .156/.293/.300 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 31.1 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).

Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • 2021 vs. the Padres: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 loss to San Diego July 2 with 7 2/3-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 1.97 FIP with a .224/.247/.315 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 32.8 K% and 84.9 mph EV in 64 PA.

Padres at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:44 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 3

Money line

The PHILLIES (-155) are the right side because they hit left-handed pitching better than the Padres hits right-handed pitching, Wheeler’s basic pitching numbers will improve and he pitches better at home.

Philly’s lineup ranks 5th in wRC+ (117) and 3rd in wOBA (.338) vs. lefties According to FanGraphs. Whereas San Diego’s lineup are 21st in wRC+ (91) and 24th in wOBA (.290) vs. right-handed pitching.

Wheeler grades in the 90th percentile for barrel rate and 85th percentile in chase rate (according to Statcast) and his form will improve as the summer continues. Wheeler has a 1.93 home ERA this season (10.80 ERA on the road) and a 0.94 WHIP (2.16 WHIP on the road).

However, I’d only RISK 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-155) at this price instead of betting to win 1 unit on Philly’s ML.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS since the Phillies are 7-10 RL as home favorites and the Padres are 6-0 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total and the Under has cashed in 6 of the last 8 Padres-Phillies meetings.

Roughly 70% of the money is on the Over according to Pregame.com, but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener and the Under is pricier. This type of line movement is very suspicious and the oddsmakers are seemingly daring bettors to take the Over.

However, I prefer Phillies on the ML more so than the UNDER 7.5 (-122) because we don’t know what kind of Snell we’ll see in his first outing.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (22-13) head to Citizens Bank Park Tuesday to start a 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (17-18) at 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego won the rubber match of a 3-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 7-3 in extra innings, and the Padres are 6-4 overall in the last 10 games.

Philly had its 4-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 5-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday, and the Phillies are also 6-4 overall in the last 10.

The Phillies beat the Padres 4-2 in last year’s season series, but San Diego outscored Philly 25-24 in those meetings.

Padres at Phillies projected starters

RHP Mike Clevinger vs. RHP Zach Eflin (unofficial starter)

Clevinger is 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA, 10 H, 5 BB and 10 K in 9 IP over 2 starts. Both of Clevinger’s outings went down as no-decisions, but both were 5-4 San Diego victories.

The Phillies haven’t officially announced a starter but are hoping Eflin returns from a stint on the COVID-IL. Eflin is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 24 IP over 5 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 10-6, at the New York Mets with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: Win, 4-2, July 3 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.

Padres at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Phillies 4

Money line

LEAN PADRES (+102) because they have the better starter on the mound, and San Diego is 12-10 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Phillies (-125) are 11-14 overall against righties. The Padres are 3-2 overall as road underdogs, and the Phillies are just 8-8 overall as home favorites.

Also, Clevinger is still finding his groove after missing all of last season with an injury, but he still has elite movement on several pitches and three pitches in his arsenal with a negative run value, according to Statcast.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the PADRES (+102) because Philly’s lineup is much hotter than San Diego’s, and Clevinger still needs to get a quality start under his belt before getting my full confidence.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Padres +1.5 (-200) is out of my price range even though they are 5-0 RL as road underdogs, and the Phillies -1.5 (+160) are 7-9 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the Padres are 3-2 O/U as road underdogs, 2-0 O/U in Clevinger’s 2 starts and have gone Over the total in five consecutive games.

Whereas the Phillies are 8-6-2 O/U as home favorites and 3-0-1 O/U in their last 4 games vs. teams with a 60.0% or better winning rate.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (39-41) host the San Diego Padres (49-36) in their three-game series finale Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly evened the series after a 4-2 win Saturday as Bryce Harper and 1B Rhys Hoskins hit a combined 3-for-6 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Blake Snell makes his 16th start for the Padres. Snell is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K June 22 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 36 at-bats with a .167/.279/.194 slash line, 9/5 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Vince Velasquez is on the hill for the Phillies. Velasquez is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA (64 IP, 30 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 12 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Miami Marlins.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 28 at-bats with a .143/.143/.286 slash line, 11/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 1 RBI.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:01 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 6, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PADRES (-140) for 1 unit because we are seeing “sharp” line movement towards San Diego and the Padres have the edge in starting and relief pitching and batting.

This game opened with San Diego laying -123 on the money line before the market steamed the Padres up to the current number.

For instance, the Phillies are just 12-16 vs. left-handed starters and their lineup is 21st in hard-hit rate against lefty pitching.

Also, San Diego’s lineup has been hitting the ball well recently; the Padres rank seventh in both wRC+, fifth in hard-hit rate and eighth in wOBA and WAR over the past two weeks.

On the other hand, Philly’s lineup is bottom 7 in WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that same time span.

Furthermore, Philly’s bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. For instance, the Phillies relievers have the third-worst WAR, seventh-worst FIP and third-worst left-on-base percentage.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (+115) for a quarter unit – if at all – because San Diego is one of the nine teams with a winning run line record as a road favorite (15-12 ATS) and Philly is just 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (+100) for a half unit because not only did the first two Padres-Phillies games go Under the total but also these teams have a combined 12-15 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

Additionally, even though it draws from a small sample size for both pitchers, each starter has impressive pitching peripherals in their appearances vs. their respective opponents. Also Snell still has some of the best stuff in the game despite a bumpy first few months.

Lastly, the UNDER 9 (+100) is a “contrarian play” as nearly 95% of the money is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, and typically it’s profitable in sports betting fading such a lopsided market.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (49-35) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-41) play the middle contest of a three-game series Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Through 16 starts this season, Darvish is 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 96 IP.

Darvish has yielded more than 2 ER just three times through his 16 starts. Current Phillies bats own a mere .533 OPS against him.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 through 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin was scratched from Thursday’s start against the Miami Marlins due to congestion and body aches. He has pitched well at home with a 2.13 ERA over 38 IP, but his overall numbers have been undone by a difficult-to-pitch-around .337 batting average on balls in play.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Phillies +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies won Friday’s opener 4-3 in 10 innings. The loss was just the Padres’ third since June 16. It also ran San Diego’s road record under .500 (19-20) despite the fact the Friars are a plus-26 in run differential in away games. Also, with Friday’s setback, Padres are just 12-13 in 1-run games.

Philadelphia is looking for a second straight victory for the first time since winning four straight from June 9-13. Since then, the Phillies are 5-10.

With some fade tilt toward Darvish and a Friars offense which has benefited from some generous rates around the margins of late … and with a bit of tilt the other way on Eflin, the PHILLIES (+140) are the lean here but consider a run line play to get the best value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Peg the Philadelphia bullpen as being somewhat unlucky thus far in posting its 4.71 ERA. The opposite is the assessment of the San Diego relief corps.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

A sliver of Under lean is helped along here by a weather forecast which calls for a game-time temperature of 68 degrees and a 6-to-7 mph breeze helping the pitchers throughout.

BACK THE UNDER 8 (-105).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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