Tag: Padres Diamondbacks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The San Diego Padres (93-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-73) wrap up their regular-season series Sunday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 7-5

The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NL playoffs, but they look like the team fighting to stay in the mix for the final Wild Card spot. San Diego took down Arizona 5-0 on Saturday, limiting the D-backs to just 2 hits.

The Diamondbacks are battling the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for the final 2 Wild Card spots in the NL. However, Arizona has dropped 5 of the past 6 games, and it now finds itself tied with the Mets in percentage points, and New York has 2 games in hand.

The Under cashed for the Padres in Saturday’s game, and is now 10-1-1 in the past 12 games since Sept. 15

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

LHP Martin Perez vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt

Perez (5-5, 4.25 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 131 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sept. 21
• 2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.57 ERA, 53 1/3 IP, 33 ER, 62 H, 12 HR, 21 BB, 38 K, .290 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.56 WHIP in 10 starts
• Last 7 games: 3-0, 2.80 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 32 H, 13 BB, 28 K, 1.27 WHIP
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 7 K, 1.84 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 2 starts

Pfaadt (10-10, 4.80 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 11-0 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 6-5, 5.31 ERA (83 IP, 49 ER), 13 HR, 19 BB, 86 K, .280 OBA, 1.35 WHIP in 15 starts
• Last 7 games: 3-4, 8.53 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 12 BB, 41 K, 1.89 WHIP
• Career vs. Padres: 0-2, 3.81 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 36 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 28 K, 1.48 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:49 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-140) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (+145) are a solid value as moderate underdogs. San Diego has outscored Arizona 10-3 in this series so far, and the Diamondbacks (-175) are playing about as poorly as possible.

The time is ticking for Arizona, as it has just 1 more chance to grab a win and get in the mix for a playoff spot, but Pfaadt has been awful lately. In fact, in his past 7 starts, he has been allowing nearly a run per inning. Not good.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a more conservative bettor, PADRES +1.5 (-140) is not priced out of the line if you’d like a little bit of insurance.

The Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) haven’t shown any signs of life, and using Pfaadt is bad news for Arizona’s postseason chances.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) might be the best play on the board here.

The Under has dominated for the Padres lately, going 10-1-1 in the past 12 contests. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 road games for San Diego, too. The total has gone low at a 2-0-1 clip in the past 3 starts for the southpaw Perez.

As far as the Diamondbacks are concerned, the Under has cashed in the 1st 2 games of this crucial series, with Arizona scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 of the past 5 games with 2 shutout losses.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The San Diego Padres (92-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 6-5

The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the National League playoffs. San Diego picked up a 5-3 win as a short ‘dog (+115) Friday as the Under (8.5) hung on. It was a crushing blow to Arizona as it battles with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for 2 final Wild Card spots in the NL.

The Padres are bringing back RHP Randy Vasquez from Triple-A El Paso, trying to keep their regular arms fresh for the postseason.

The Under is now 9-1-1 in the past 11 games since Sept. 15. Friday’s Under snapped a 3-0-1 run to the Over for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks are just 1-4 in the past 5 games, and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of the past 4 games. Arizona is losing what was once a strong grip on a potential playoff spot.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Vasquez (4-7, 5.18 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 92 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 11 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 11-4 road setback vs. Tampa Bay Rays Aug. 31
• 2024 road splits: 3-4, 6.79 ERA, 50 1/3 IP, 38 ER, 74 H, 7 HR, 17 BB, 29 K, .349 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.81 WHIP in 11 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-3, 6.09 ERA (34 IP, 23 ER), 39 H, 14 BB, 20 K, 1.56 WHIP
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Rodriguez (3-4, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H (3 HR), 3 BB, 8 K in 6-3 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants Monday
• 2024 home splits: 0-3, 6.75 ERA (24 IP, 18 ER), 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, .303 OBA, 1.67 WHIP in 5 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-4, 5.71 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 14 BB, 38 K, 1.62 WHIP
• Career vs. Padres: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, an 11-0 road victory Aug. 23, 2019, with Boston Red Sox

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 8, Padres 6

Moneyline

The DIAMONDBACKS (-175) are a good play in the middle game of this series, as the Padres (+145) just cannot be trusted with Vasquez coming back from the minors. He had a dismal 8.21 ERA in 10 starts with El Paso, and he is simply coming up to the big club in a meaningless game to save the other arms for the postseason.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, play DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+120) laying the run and a half.

The Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Padres +1.5 (-145) are locked into the No. 4 seed. It won’t be easy, and certainly don’t bet both the moneyline and run line.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-120) might be the best play on the board here.

The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games for the Diamondbacks, and the total has gone high at a 4-1-1 clip in the past 6 outings by the southpaw Rodriguez.

For the Padres, the Under is 9-1-1 in the past 11 games, but the Over is 9-2 in Vasquez’s past 11 starts in the majors, so go against the recent team trends.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a 3-game series Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Padres lost the final 2 games in a 3-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener Tuesday 4-2. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as a slight underdog (-106) as the Over (8.5) cashed. That halted a 8-0-1 run to the Under dating back to Sept. 15.

The Diamondbacks stopped a 3-game losing streak with an 8-2 victory against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as a heavy favorite (-256) while the Over (9) cashed. The total is on a 3-0-1 run for the D-backs.

These teams haven’t met since July 5-7 in San Diego, when Arizona took 2 of 3 games at Petco Park. The Over cashed in all 3 meetings in that series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.

The last time these teams met in Phoenix was back on May 3-5, with the Padres winning 2 of 3 games. The Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings, too. The Over is on a 6-0 run, while hitting in 8 of the past 9, in this series.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
• 2024 road splits: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
• Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-0 road victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
• Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+105) are a solid road ‘dog behind the veteran Darvish, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak and build a little momentum heading into the postseason.

The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t as good of a play because of Kelly. While he is unbeaten this season in 5 decisions, he was lifted from his most recent start due to cramping. It’s uncertain how long he’ll be able to go, and how effective he’ll be.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a little too pricey for a standalone wager, if you’re like a little bit of insurance. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, throwing them in isn’t the end of the world.

The Padres have won Darvish’s past 4 starts since he returned from injury, so they’re a much better play straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game which should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already into the postseason field, and the Diamondbacks are a good bet to snap up one of the other Wild Card spots.

While the Under has cashed in 6 straight meetings, these teams haven’t faced each other since early July, so that can be discarded. What’s more important is that the Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for the Padres.

And, while the Diamondbacks have cashed high at a 3-0-1 clip in the past 4 games, the Under is 3-1 in Kelly’s past 4 starts.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.

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