Typically having a Rookie of the Year on either side of the ball is a good sign for an NFL team. A first-year player shining above all the other first-year players is usually a good sign for that player and his team’s futures. That’s not the case this season for the 49ers when it comes to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
The 49ers invested pretty heavily in their offense in this year’s draft, taking two wide receivers, two offensive linemen, and a running back. Something will have gone terribly wrong if any of their rookies are in the mix for an OROY.
Let’s take out the offensive linemen for the sake of this discussion since an offensive lineman isn’t winning that award no matter how much they might deserve it. That leaves WR Ricky Pearsall, WR Jacob Cowing and RB Isaac Guerendo among the draft picks on offense.
While there may be a role for Pearsall and/or Cowing in their rookie seasons, they’re likely to be limited in an offense that regularly ranks in the bottom five in pass attempts. If they’re getting enough snaps or targets to put up the stats necessary to get in the conversation for a ROY bid it likely means the 49ers are dealing with a ton of availability issues between their two top receivers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
Having an adequate replacement should one of those two players miss time is a key benefit of making those two WR selections. However, a rookie having the same impact as All-Pros like Aiyuk and Samuel in terms of making a Super Bowl run in 2024 isn’t super likely.
Guerendo is in a similar boat. He’ll enter camp way down the 49ers’ RB depth chart. Even though he looks to be immensely talented and better than his college numbers would indicate, he’s going to at best be behind Christian McCaffrey by Week 1. Chances are he’s also behind at least one of Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell.
If Guerendo is getting enough work to put up ROY numbers it means something happened to McCaffrey which would be an abject disaster for San Francisco’s offense. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year is the focal point of everything the 49ers want to do on that side of the ball in both the run and pass games. Removing him from the equation means making significant adjustments to what the offense can and will do on a week-to-week basis.
The better result for the 49ers this season would be getting flashes from their trio of draft picks on offense. Perhaps Pearsall grabs some time as WR3 and makes some key third-down catches. Cowing may be relegated to punt returns and gadget plays as a rookie, but he can show signs of being more than that in 2025 and beyond when the 49ers’ receiving corps begins to evolve. If Guerendo can move up the depth chart and add some explosiveness to the backfield he’ll put himself in line to be RB2 by 2025 where he may be tasked with taking some of the workload from an aging McCaffrey.
Contributions from rookies will definitely be welcomed by the 49ers, but those bigger roles are better reserved for after this season.
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