As the 2019 season brings to a close another decade of college football, BadgersWire has been engaged in a series of reflective pieces. “Record Review” is another series examining how the Badgers have fared against the rest of the Big Ten Conference in the 2010s. Next up is an examination of the Badgers’ record against one of the conference’s more pesky teams, Northwestern. This is one of the few series that Wisconsin has struggled to win with great regularity in its own division. Let’s take a look at the numbers and margins.
Using Stassen, Badgers Wire pulled up every result against Northwestern in the past decade. Wisconsin gained a 5-4 series advantage (a win for the decade) after its victory this year. That puts the Badgers at 4-1 at home, but they were 1-3 on the road. At home, Wisconsin’s average margin of victory was 36-16. On the road, that dropped down to 22-20 in favor of Northwestern. The two programs tend to win in pairs before losing in pairs. This year marked the first time since 2009, interestingly enough, that Northwestern or Wisconsin didn’t win two in a row.
The series isn’t one of the bigger ones for either team. Minnesota, Iowa, and even the recently added Nebraska have bigger rivalries. Yet, Northwestern is a game that Wisconsin should win. Northwestern has good years and bad years, and struggles to stack together several great seasons due to the grade requirements at the school, but the Wildcats don’t have the talent to consistently compete with the Badgers. They have to rely on fundamentals, scheme, and matchups to win this game.
That said, Wisconsin needs to improve its record in this series if it wants to take the next step in the 2020s. Losses to Northwestern will prevent voters from taking UW seriously come playoff selection time, in any close call with upper-tier teams from other conferences. If programs lose four times in a decade to Northwestern, they’re probably not beating Ohio State, certainly not on a regular basis. The Badgers aren’t challenged often in their own division, but Northwestern is one of the teams that give them all they can handle. They’ll need to up their game in this contest when the next decade begins.
For insights on Northwestern football in the coming decade, I turned to Philip Rossman-Reich, who has blogged about Northwestern sports at multiple sites over several years. You can find him at @RiseNU. Philip produces an excellent Orlando Magic blog if you’re into NBA basketball. The site is Orlando Magic Daily, with Philip offering commentary at @philiprr_omd.
Here is Philip Rossman-Reich on Northwestern football in the 2020s:
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Northwestern’s history is not something anyone should celebrate. The “Dark Ages” still leave an imprint on the national perception of the Wildcats and are a constant reminder of how close the team is always to doom. The difficulties of recruiting to an academic-minded school in a power conference are always evident. Winning is the most difficult thing Northwestern has ever had to do.
Somehow, in the last 10 years, Pat Fitzgerald has turned Northwestern into a fairly consistent winner. Nine bowl games since he took over in 2006. Four bowl games wins (including their last three). A Big Ten West championship in 2018. He is the team’s all-time winningest coach. Not to mention helping build the “Fitz Mahal” on the shores of Lake Michigan.
Northwestern is far from the “Dark Ages.” They expect to win. They expect to be in a bowl game. They expect to win bowl games. They expect to win championships.
The only problem is the consistency. They went 3-9 following their Big Ten West Championship season, proving they are both on the verge of competing for championships and hitting rock bottom. For the first time in more than a decade, the Wildcats have hired a new offensive coordinator and have a new voice guiding the team.
Fitzgerald has remade the team in his image. They are strong defensively and can run the ball far better than a team with its size and recruiting limitations probably should. Fitzgerald has always found to get the most of his teams, squeezing out close games to turn six-win seasons into 10-win seasons regularly.
Of course, that is not the life Northwestern wants to live. The Wildcats do not want to go year to year wondering if this is the year they scramble to make a bowl game or the year they win the Big Ten championship.
Where the Wildcats want to be is somewhere different. Somewhere consistent. And so the biggest question for the 2020s for Northwestern is how the Wildcats get their piece of the pie and settle into a place where a bowl game is not only the expectation, but a virtual given and competing for the Big Ten title is more than a rare thing.
That is the part of the program building Fitzgerald will have to figure out. It started with recognizing (perhaps a few years too late) that the offensive schemes he was running with Mick McCall were not working. Northwestern will have to adjust to a new offense and offensive coordinator for the first time. All the while trying to get themselves back into bowl contention.
From there, the Wildcats have to build. They have to continue building upon the defensive foundation they have built for the last few seasons and turn that into consistent winning. And yes, it means changing the perceptions of the program and stepping up on the big stage with marquee wins over the big schools — namely, Ohio State and Michigan when they come on the schedule.
Northwestern is no longer in the “Dark Ages.” The Wildcats have not been a doormat in the league for the entirety of Fitzgerald’s tenure and really since Randy Walker took the team to a Big Ten title in 2000. They have reached a level where they are competitive every year.
Now the Wildcats need to reach a championship level. A level where they are competing for the title in the division every year and those days of Northwestern being a joke of any kind are long in the past.
No one thought that when Northwestern basketball made its first-ever NCAA Tournament and then won its first NCAA tourney game in 2017, the Wildcats would become a colossus. No one thought that. This is still Northwestern. One season does not a transformation make. This was not going to become a powerhouse program which would snag high seeds in March most years. However, it was certainly reasonable to think that once Chris Collins finally ended an NCAA Tournament drought of nearly 80 years, this program — not too far from Chicago — would capture some of the big city’s high-school talent and significantly raise its floor. No, Northwestern was not in position to become an annual NCAA Tournament team (unlike, say, Wisconsin), but it was definitely in position to bring in quality players who could make the Wildcats regular contenders for NCAA berths.
Northwestern, after 2017, figured to be a program which would be in the mix for NCAA appearances and succeed once every two or three years. Unrelenting annual consistency might have been an overly optimistic expectation, but becoming a program which could reasonably expect to go Dancing every three or four years? That seemed reasonable.
Northwestern’s Big Ten Conference record (not including Big Ten Tournament games) since 2017? 10-30. The Wildcats won only six league games in 2018, four in 2019. They are 0-2 in the conference this season. They are going nowhere quickly. Earlier this season, Northwestern lost to Merrimack College, a brand-new Division I program, at home. The Wildcats are a mess.
The question for Northwestern basketball in the 2020s is not so much when the Wildcats will make their second NCAA Tournament. The question is bigger than that: Will Northwestern have a second act?
It is as though Northwestern spent all this energy and emotion getting to the NCAAs that one time… and then had nothing left for future seasons. The 2017-2018 season was one prolonged hangover. Every Big Ten team treated Northwestern very seriously, much more seriously than before, and the Wildcats were plainly not ready to take everyone’s best punch. It was a new experience for the program. Playing a season one year after making the Big Dance had literally never happened before. Yet, it remained odd that Northwestern had so little emotional fuel and didn’t come especially close to the NCAAs in 2018, with some roster holdovers from the 2017 team.
Right now, Northwestern looks like a program which is out of steam, under a coach who is out of ideas. This might not rate as “stunning,” given that Northwestern basketball lacks a sustained history of winning, but it’s also not what many people imagined at the end of the 2017 season. It was supposed to be better than this. We will see if Northwestern finds its second act in the 2020s, whether under Collins or someone else.
EVANSTON, Ill. — There’s no trophy to distinguish the Northwestern-Minnesota series. If there was one, what would it be, a mitten? A mini-snowblower? An icicle?
In the absence of an official trophy, there was one that appeared to unofficially change hands between the two teams after the conclusion of Saturday’s game: the Big Ten West crown.
The Wildcats, coming off a nine-win season that took them to the Big Ten Championship Game, have taken a significant step backward this year, and have failed to win a single conference game this season. While Northwestern has been mired in the basement of the West, the Golden Gophers have stood atop it, soaring to unprecedented heights in P.J. Fleck’s third season at the helm of the program.
Undefeated for nine weeks, Minnesota fell at Iowa last week, a loss that has likely doomed their outside bid at a College Football Playoff berth. But their postseason ambitions aren’t completely dead in the water, as a two-loss Wisconsin team has made it increasingly likely that Minnesota will represent the West Division in the Big Ten title game.
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck leads his team onto the field against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. (Photo credit: David Banks — USA TODAY Sports)
Powered by an excellent performance from quarterback Tanner Morgan, and a near-perfect day from receivers Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman, the No. 11 ranked Gophers (9-1, 7-1 Big Ten) never trailed in a commanding 38-22 win over Northwestern (2-9, 0-8 Big Ten), and are one win closer to Indianapolis, a capstone to a once-in-a-generation season.
Morgan, whose status for Saturday’s game was in question heading into the week, was cleared to play in the days leading up to the contest after entering concussion protocol, assuaging concerns that Minnesota would have to start a redshirt-freshman quarterback in his place.
Morgan, who has been first-rate all season, threw for four touchdowns and 211 yards, tying his season-high in touchdown passes in a game. The sophomore led a torrid passing attack that evenly targeted Johnson and Bateman with seven receptions apiece.
The Gophers blitzed out to a quick 21-0 lead in the first half, and with Northwestern’s offense generating just 88 yards of total offense, it looked like the rout was on.
Bateman jump-started the Minnesota offense on their first drive, snagging a perfectly-placed throw over safety Travis Whillock on a post route for a 19-yard score. The redshirt-senior topped that impressive catch in the second quarter with an arguably even better play, beating Trae Williams on a double move before extending his arms to make a toe drag catch near the front left pylon.
Running back Shannon Brooks practically walked-in a nine-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
Minnesota is now 19-1 under Fleck when they lead after the first quarter.
To their credit, Northwestern finished the first half strong, denying the Gophers any more points. A 67-yard boot off the leg of punter Andrew David pinned Minnesota inside their five-yard line with nine minutes to play in the half. On the first play of the Minnesota drive, senior defensive lineman Joe Gaziano scored a safety by pressuring Morgan in the end zone, forcing a throw out-of-bounds that sailed short of the first-down marker. After it was ruled a sack, Gaziano became Northwestern’s all-time leader in the category with 28.5, a proud moment for the senior.
“It was a big momentum play, because our offense gets the ball back and we scored a nine-point swing in the game,” said Gaziano. “I was really excited for the guys to be able to grasp momentum like that.”
The safety ignited a 14-play, 69-yard drive that ended with an Andrew Marty connection with sophomore Jace James in the endzone to make it 21-9.
While Morgan was predictably reliable, Northwestern’s quarterback carousel continued to be unpredictable heading into Saturday’s game.
After sustaining an injury in last week’s game against UMass, Aidan Smith was listed as doubtful in Thursday’s injury report, leading many to make the assumption that Andrew Marty would make the start for the ‘Cats.
Except, he didn’t. ESPN’s Rece Davis revealed a couple hours before kickoff on College Gameday that Johnson would be the starter.
Oh, Pat Fitzgerald and his depth chart shenanigans.
Northwestern quarterback Hunter Johnson (15) being sacked during the first half at Ryan Field. Johnson (Photo credit: David Banks — USA TODAY Sports)
Johnson, who had not played since the team’s Nov. 2 loss at Indiana, has battled a myriad of injuries and off-the-field issues this season. To say the least, this year has not gone as planned for Johnson. Unfortunately, his misfortunes continued in Saturday’s game.
Johnson was rendered unable to complete a single pass and subject to relentless pressure thanks to poor offensive line play. The redshirt sophomore was sacked three times, the third of which knocked him out of the game with concussion-like symptoms as characterized by the ABC broadcast.
That meant the quarterbacking duties fell to Marty.
Despite the short notice, Marty played the most complete game by a Northwestern quarterback all season, throwing for 95 yards and one touchdown on 8-of-10 passing, while punching into two rushing touchdowns at the goal line.
“I was proud of Andrew for stepping up and getting his first real experience,” said Fitzgerald of Marty’s performance. “I’m just happy for him. He’s worked really hard and he’s a great young man. My hope is that he gains confidence through the experience and it’s great fuel and motivation for him as he moves forward in his career.”
Any momentum the ‘Cats had from the end of the first half failed to carry over in the second half, as Minnesota continued to keep pace with Northwestern, despite Marty’s best efforts.
Minnesota wide receiver Tyler Johnson (6) catches a pass as Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Trae Williams (3) defends him. (Photo credit: David Banks — USA TODAY Sports)
Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson each caught a touchdown pass, and Michael Lantz contributed a 37-yard field goal to end a clock-killing fourth-quarter drive.
Bateman’s three touchdown receptions were the most in one game in his career.
The Gophers’ endless depth on both sides of the ball choked a banged-up, inexperienced Northwestern team. The Gophers split 217 rushing yards on 39 carries among three running backs
Northwestern, on the other hand, was forced to rely on two freshmen running backs against a top-30 rushing defense.
To say Northwestern never had a chance to upset Minnesota would be an overstatement. But without a deluge of unforced errors, it’s hard to see how the Wildcats could have ever overcome such a severe talent disparity.
As the sun sets on Northwestern’s reign as Big Ten West champions, a new insurgent team stands in the wings, ready to assume the title.
“If you want to be a Big Ten West champ, you got to beat the Big Ten West champ,” said Fleck.
What’s Next:
Northwestern at Illinois (Saturday, Nov. 30 @ TBD)
Minnesota at #12 Wisconsin (Saturday, November 30 @ 2:30 p.m. on ABC)
