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SportsbookWire’s NFL Week 17 picks: ML, ATS and O/U predictions for all games

The SportsbookWire staff makes their NFL Week 17 picks and predictions for moneylines, spreads and totals.

Before looking at SportsbookWire staff’s Week 17 NFL picks, here are the against-the-spread (ATS) and Over/Under (O/U) leaders, according to Teamrankings.com.

The Denver Broncos (9-6) didn’t cover the spread in Week 16, losing 34-27 as 2.5-point underdogs at the LA Chargers (9-6) in the Thursday night game. However, Denver still owns the NFL’s best ATS record at 11-4.

The Broncos visit the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network). As of Tuesday at 2:18 p.m. ET, BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Bengals as 3-point favorites (-120).

The Minnesota Vikings (13-2) aren’t far behind the Broncos with a 10-4-1 ATS record, while the Chargers, Detroit Lions (13-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) are each 10-5 ATS.

The Tennessee Titans (3-12) remained the league’s worst ATS team, falling to 2-13 ATS after a 38-30 loss as 4-point underdogs at the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) in Week 16.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) and New York Giants (2-13) are the next best teams to fade — bet against — at 4-11 ATS apiece. The New York Jets (4-11) and San Francisco 49ers (6-9) are each 5-10 ATS.

The Baltimore Ravens (10-5) improved their NFL-best Over record to 12-3 with a 34-17 home win against the Steelers last Sunday — the Over was 44.

The Carolina Panthers (4-11) are next with an 11-4 O/U record, while 4 teams are 10-5 O/U. They are the Bengals, Dallas Cowboys (7-8), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) and Washington Commanders (10-5).

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7), Houston Texans (9-6) and Giants share the best Under record at 5-10 O/U apiece.

In an interesting “total” matchup, the best Over team in Baltimore visits the best Under team in Houston on Christmas Day at 4:30 p.m. ET (Netflix). BetMGM Sportsbook lists the O/U line at 46.5 as of Tuesday at 2:18 p.m. ET.

NFL Week 17 staff picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds and check out more NFL expert picks and predictions from SportsbookWire.com.

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Steelers vs Chiefs injury report: Latest updates, news for Week 17

Latest updates from the Pittsburgh Steelers injury report, including George Pickens and Joey Porter, Jr., ahead of a Week 17 game vs. the Chiefs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers face a tough challenge as they host the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. This holiday matchup is shaping up to be a key test for the Steelers, who are playing their third game in 10 days and battling to solidify their playoff position.

Facing Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense is never easy, but Pittsburgh’s defense, anchored by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, will look to make a statement.

Offensively, the Steelers’ success will hinge on Russell Wilson, whose declined play has lost Pittsburgh its last two matchups. Let’s hope he can find a rhythm with George Pickens back in the lineup.

Special teams could also play a big role, boasting capable kickers in Chris Boswell and Harrison Butker. While the Chiefs are 3-point favorites on the road, the Steelers are 5-1 at Acrisure Stadium.

Here’s a look at the final injury and practice participation report for Chiefs week:

Steelers injury report

Player Injury Sunday Monday Tuesday Game status
QB Justin Fields abdominal DNP LP LP questionable
WR George Pickens hamstring DNP DNP FP –
WR Ben Skowronek hip DNP DNP DNP out
WR Mike Williams NIR DNP FP FP –
CB Joey Porter Jr. knee DNP DNP DNP out
S DeShon Elliott hamstring LP FP FP –
CB Donte Jackson back LP FP FP –
LB Tyler Matakevich knee DNP FP FP –
LB Elandon Roberts NIR DNP FP FP –
OL Isaac Seumalo NIR DNP FP FP –
LB T.J. Watt NIR DNP FP FP –
DT Cameron Heyward NIR DNP FP FP –
DT Larry Ogunjobi groin LP FP FP –

* The Steelers did not practice on Sunday, only a walkthrough on Monday

DNP: Did not practice

LP: Limited participation 

FP: Full participation

NIR: Not injury related – resting

Chiefs injury report

Player Injury Sunday Monday Tuesday Game status
DB Chamarri Conner concussion DNP DNP DNP out
T D.J. Humphries hamstring DNP DNP DNP out
LB Jack Cochrane ankle DNP – – –
DL Chris Jones calf DNP DNP LP questionable
T Jawaan Taylor knee LP – LP questionable
C Creed Humphrey shoulder FP FP FP –
QB Patrick Mahomes ankle FP FP FP –
S Justin Reid back FP FP FP –
WR Nikkom Remigio knee FP FP FP –
CB Josh Williams ankle/elbow FP FP FP –
WR Xavier Worthy ankle FP FP FP –

DNP: Did not practice

LP: Limited participation 

FP: Full participation

NIR: Not injury related – resting

George Pickens injury update

After missing the last three matchups, the Steelers get their star receiver back in a game they must win for a much-needed bye week. Hopefully Pickens returning to the lineup will get Russell Wilson back in the groove.

Joey Porter Jr. injury update

Joey Porter Jr. suffered a knee injury during Pittsburgh’s Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The injury occurred in the second half, forcing Porter to leave the game and not return. Due to the quick four-day turnaround, Porter will not play versus the Chiefs.

DeShon Elliott injury update

DeShon Elliott was a full practice participant on Monday and Tuesday and will play on Wednesday. Pittsburgh’s secondary sorely missed Elliott’s presence in Weeks 15 and 16. He’s second only to Patrick Queen in tackles with 96, and the Steelers have missed a whopping 36 tackles since his hamstring injury in the Week 14 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

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Texans Christmas Day football tickets: Latest prices vs. Ravens

See the latest ticket prices for the Houston Texans’ Christmas Day game against Baltimore.

The Houston Texans will return to the field on Christmas Day for a must-watch game against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, the second game of a doubleheader that is streaming on Netflix.

Sunday’s game will begin at 4:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. CT at NRG Stdium, where there will be a special halftime performance by Beyoncé.

Tickets for the game are already available. At the time of publication, the cheapest available tickets for the Texans vs. Ravens Christmas Day game cost $149.

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The Texans are 5-2 at home this season, while the Ravens are 5-3 on the road on the road. These teams last met in the divisional round of the playoffs last season in Baltimore, where the Ravens won, 34-10.

Get your Texans vs. Ravens Christmas Day tickets now before they sell out.

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We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. FTW operates independently, though, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.

Steelers Christmas Day football tickets: Latest prices vs. Chiefs

See the latest ticket prices for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Christmas Day game against Kansas City.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will return to the field on Christmas Day for a must-watch game against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, the first game of a doubleheader that is streaming on Netflix.

Sunday’s game will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium, where the temperature is expected to be around 40 degrees at kickoff.

Tickets for the game are already available. At the time of publication, the cheapest available tickets for the Steelers vs. Chiefs Christmas Day game cost $121.

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The Steelers are 5-1 at home this season, while the Chiefs are 6-1 on the road. Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 15, played a full game last weekend and is expected to play on Wednesday.

Get your Steelers vs. Chiefs Christmas Day tickets now before they sell out.

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We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. FTW operates independently, though, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.

NFL’s playoff picture is a nightmare scenario for Broncos

If the season ended today, the Broncos would face the Bills in the first round of the NFL playoffs.

Everything went against the Denver Broncos (9-6) in the AFC’s playoff race in Week 16.

The Broncos had two scenarios to clinch a playoff berth this past weekend. Denver could have secured a playoff spot with a win OR with losses/ties by the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts.

The Broncos ended up losing 34-27 to the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, then the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts all won on Sunday.

Denver is currently the seventh and final seed in the AFC, setting up a nightmare scenario for the first round of the NFL playoffs. If the season ended today, the Broncos would face the Buffalo Bills (the No. 2 seed) in the Wild Card round.

Denver can clinch a playoff berth on Saturday with a win over the Bengals.

Here’s a look at the AFC’s current playoff picture going into Week 17.

AFC Playoff Picture

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
  4. Houston Texans (9-6)
  5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
  7. Denver Broncos (9-6)

In the Hunt

  1. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
  2. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

If the Broncos don’t beat Cincinnati, the playoff race will come down to the final week of the regular season. Over the next two weeks, Denver needs one win or losses/ties from each of the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Right now, it’s looking like a Broncos-Bills matchup in Round 1.

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Sean Payton pushes back on ‘garbage’ criticism of ‘TNF’ play calling

“I read more stuff that I just looked at and thought, ‘This is garbage,'” Sean Payton said of criticism of his play-calling before halftime.

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton faced criticism for his game management following a 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday.

One of Payton’s decision that was questioned was his opting to throw while leading by 11 points deep in his own territory with 41 seconds until halftime. That decision backfired as Denver ended up punting and the Chargers scored three points after a penalty on the punt.

During his conference call with reporters on Monday, Payton defended his play-calling before halftime.

“So much was made — I thought one of the dumber storylines was the end of the half in regards to us being aggressive with 41 seconds, two timeouts,” Payton said. “We punt the ball, [and] the half is over with.

“I read more stuff that I just looked at and thought, ‘This is garbage.’ Number one, it didn’t shift the momentum. We got the ball back to start the second half, went down the field [and] kicked a field goal. We were back up 11.”

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix defended the decision after the game.

“Well, we had about 45 seconds and two timeouts and I think every offense in the league is trying to go score,” Nix said last Thursday.

Payton and Nix will attempt to bounce back from last week’s loss when they go on the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17. Denver needs one more win to clinch a spot in the NFL playoffs.

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Fantasy Football: 5 waiver wire running backs to target in Week 17

Trey Benson is among the top running backs to target on the fantasy football waiver wire this week.

Congratulations, you’ve made it to your fantasy football championship game!

Either that or you’re taking a consolation bracket very seriously, or you play in a league that has a Week 18 championship game (which is a bad idea). Regardless of why you’re here, we’re happy to have you.

Bryce Young (4.9%) is suddenly fantasy-relevant at quarterback, Jalen McMillan’s (33.1%) stock is through the roof at wide receiver, and Chigoziem Okonkwo (6.4%) has had a great two-week run at tight end. Today, though, we’re taking a look at the running back position.

We’ve put together a quick list of five running backs to target on the fantasy football waiver wire going into Week 17.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire RB Targets

1. RB Kendre Miller (47.6%): Alvin Kamara is dealing with a groin injury, leaving Miller as the Saints’ primary running back. New Orleans wasn’t able to get anything going against the Packers on Monday, but they’ll have an easier matchup against the Raiders next week.

2. RB Trey Benson (18.1%): James Conner might miss the final two games of the season with a knee injury, leaving Benson as Arizona’s new RB1 (health permitting). Benson missed last week with an ankle injury, so it’s worth taking a look at Michael Carter (0.1%) in case Benson is also held out this week.

3. RB Audric Estime (8.4%): Estime led Denver’s backfield in carries (nine) and rushing yards (48) on Thursday and scored his first NFL touchdown. Broncos coach Sean Payton has hinted that Estime’s workload could increase over the next two weeks.

4. RB Tyjae Spears (48.2%): Spears (14) got more touches than Tony Pollard (12) and he totaled more yards (66 vs. 40) and touchdowns (2 vs. 0). TDs can be fluky, but Spears is worthy of flex consideration.

5. RB Patrick Taylor (33.0%): Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo are all banged up, leaving Patrick Taylor as the 49ers’ de facto RB1. Taylor led the team in carries (eight on Sunday), but Deebo Samuel (five) was also involved. Taylor is worth a look in case Guerendo is sidelined again in Week 17.

Roster percentages for players listed in this article were sourced from ESPN. For more fantasy coverage, check out our fantasy football hub.

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Karl Mecklenburg: Broncos can’t let Bo Nix limit the offense

Karl Mecklenburg says the Broncos shouldn’t limit Bo Nix to short throws and allow defenses to stack the line of scrimmage.

The Broncos had a tough loss on Thursday to the Chargers. Denver dominated the first half, and the Chargers dominated the second half. Denver came out running the ball and scored touchdowns on their first three possessions. LA got more aggressive on defense after the half, taking away the run, forcing Denver to pass.

Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix refused to throw the ball down field. I understand he didn’t want to make a mistake, but for the first time this year, his play took a step backwards. In the two games before the Chargers, Nix threw 3 interceptions against the Colts and 2 against the Browns, both in wins. Yes, it’s better to not throw interceptions, but if Nix allows the defense to stack the line of scrimmage, and doesn’t threaten them deep, every opponent will follow the Chargers’ lead and this team will lose. They can’t limit themselves on offense like they did on Thursday night.

The way the first half ended was a coaching error, followed by a foolish special teams penalty. Run the ball and go in at the half with the lead and the momentum. The Broncos committed penalties throughout the game to help the Chargers continue drives, or to put themselves in long yardage situations. This was a chance to lock up a playoff game, and they failed.

Fortunately, Denver has two more chances to make the playoffs. One win and they’re in. Their opponent next week, the Bengals, are [in the hunt for a playoff spot]. The NFL season is a grind. This is a young team that hasn’t been in this position before. Mistakes are multiplied in these types of games, but you can’t be so afraid of mistakes that you limit big play opportunities. Nix will watch the film and get better. Hopefully the Broncos will be able to avoid committing penalties next week. Go Broncos!

Karl Mecklenburg originally shared this post on his social media pages and it was re-shared here with permission. Mecklenburg played for the Denver Broncos from 1983-1994, earning six Pro Bowl nods and five All-Pro selections during his decorated career in the NFL. Mecklenburg is now a motivational keynote speaker. You can book Mecklenburg on his website. 

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NFL power rankings: Detroit Lions are still the team to beat

Going into Week 17, the Detroit Lions remain the team to beat in the NFL.

Following their 34-17 win over the Chicago Bears (4-11) on Sunday, the Detroit Lions (13-2) remain the team to beat in the NFL. Yes, even above the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1).

Kansas City has a better record, but they’ve had several fluky results this year and if they meet Detroit in the Super Bowl, the Lions should be considered the favorite. There’s no guarantee that the Chiefs will reach the title game, though, because the Buffalo Bills (12-3) and Baltimore Ravens (10-5) could stand in their way in the postseason.

Even the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) and Denver Broncos (9-6) could be capable of tripping up KC in the playoffs. The Lions, meanwhile, are clearly the top contender in the NFC.

NFL power rankings after Week 16

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
  4. Washington Commanders (10-5)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
  7. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
  8. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
  10. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
  11. Houston Texans (9-6)
  12. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
  13. Denver Broncos (9-6)
  14. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
  15. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
  16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
  17. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
  18. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
  19. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
  20. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
  21. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
  22. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
  23. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
  24. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
  25. Chicago Bears (4-11)
  26. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
  27. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
  28. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
  29. New England Patriots (3-12)
  30. New York Jets (4-11)
  31. New York Giants (2-13)
  32. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)

Week 17 will kick off on Christmas Day with a Chiefs-Steelers matchup followed by a Ravens-Texans showdown.

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How to buy Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Christmas Day NFL tickets

Want to watch the Texans and Ravens do battle in person on Christmas Day? Tickets start as low as $166.

NFL fans will have a very merry Christmas in 2024, especially those in Houston and Baltimore.

The league has continued to spread the Christmas cheer this year, and one of the NFL’s holiday matchups features the Texans (9-6) and the Ravens (10-5).

Both sides have locked up their places in the upcoming postseason, but each team has plenty to play for.

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A head-to-head win for Baltimore would help the Ravens stay on top of Houston in the AFC’s seeding. Not to mention, after Baltimore beat their huge rivals last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the AFC North title is still very much up for grabs.

Meanwhile, Houston is in but are currently limping towards the playoffs. The Texans could potentially move up the seeding too, but regardless, building momentum would be especially huge for this banged up roster.

The game kicks off on Wednesday, Dec. 25, at 4:25 p.m. at NRG Stadium.

As if the game itself weren’t enough, Grammy Award winning icon Beyoncé will hit the stage at halftime for what will assuredly be a spectacular performance.

Don’t miss out on your chance to see it in person. Act soon to catch this epic clash as only limited tickets are still available.

How to buy Texans vs. Ravens NFL tickets

On top of their own personal routes to the postseason, don’t overlook the potential of this matchup being a playoff preview. These two could eventually meet again once the playoffs roll around.

Here’s what you need to know.

At the time of publication, the cheapest available tickets for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs are $166.

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