The 2022 playoffs begin with a six-pack of games featuring three games pitting division rivals and three games with teams that met earlier in the season. This week, we take three home favorites to cover, one road team to come away with a win, and two games hitting the Under due in large part to injuries at quarterback.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Wild Card Weekend
Seattle Seahawks (+410) at San Francisco 49ers (-525)
The 49ers are the hottest team in the NFL, because they are the most complete team in the league. They have won 10 straight games, have scored more than 30 points eight times (including the last three and five of the last six), and allowed 17 or fewer in 12 of the last 16 games (including eight of the last 10).
That is likely why the 49ers are such huge favorites against their division rival Seahawks (9.5 points at -105 Seahawks, -115 49ers). The 49ers swept the season series by scores of 27-7 and 21-13. There will be some who aren’t willing to give away this many points, but the 49ers’ home wins have come by totals of 20, 15, 6, 13, 16, 28, 17 and 15 points. They’ve covered this number in seven of nine home games, so there’s no reason to think Seattle can buck this trend. Take the 49ers and lay 9.5 points (-115).
Los Angeles Chargers (-125) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+105)
The Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars met in Week 3 when Jacksonville went on the road and pounded Los Angeles 38-10, dominating on both sides of the ball. However, after that win, the Jaguars lost seven of their next nine games and needed to win their last five games to finish above .500 and with the AFC South.
The Chargers played about as poorly as they could in the first meeting. While they’re the most unpredictable team in this year’s playoff field, when they’re on, they can win games with their offense and their defense. Yet, they are road favorites (2 points at -111 Chargers, -109 Jaguars). While you always take a risk investing in the Chargers, this time around, Los Angeles won’t make the same mistakes and come away with a win. Take the Chargers and lay 2 points (-111).
Miami Dolphins (+575) at Buffalo Bills (-850)
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out. Teddy Bridgewater isn’t expected to be available with a pinky injury on his throwing hand. That leaves seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson in line to start for the Dolphins. In seven games in which Thompson played, he threw 105 passes. In those games, he completed just 57 percent of his passes for 534 yards with one touchdown, three interceptions and a passer rating of 62.2.
The Dolphins split with the Bills this year, but both those games were with Tagovailoa at quarterback. Thompson has had very little work with the first-team offense this season, because the plan was never to start him until other options weren’t available. This O/U number (43.5 points at -111 Over, -109 Under) needs both teams to put up points to hit the Over, and I don’t believe this version of the Dolphins can do their part. Take the Under (-109).
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New York Giants (+140) at Minnesota Vikings (-165)
It seems like everyone looking for an upset pick is jumping on the Giants. Minnesota beat the Giants 27-24 in Week 16 at US Bank Stadium by scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to pull out yet another improbable win, which explains why they’re such small home favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams).
I don’t expect the Vikings to make a deep playoff run, but this is a game where if their offensive line holds up, the Giants defense will have a lot of difficulty slowing them down and keeping pace. Laying three points isn’t a lot for a team that posted an 8-1 record in front of the home fans this season. Take the Vikings and lay 3 points (-110).
Baltimore Ravens (+360) at Cincinnati Bengals (-450)
The Bengals played their starters in their 27-16 win last week while the Baltimore Ravens were without some of their key players. If Lamar Jackson was coming back, it might be a different story, but he didn’t practice Wednesday – the 16th straight practice he has missed.
As a result, the line for the Bengals keeps going higher (8 points at -108 Ravens, -112 Bengals). I don’t like giving away a more touchdown against a division rival – much less in the playoffs – but the Ravens are going to struggle to score 17 points, which doesn’t leave a lot for the Bengals to make up to win this game and this bet. Take the Bengals and lay 8 points (-112).
Dallas Cowboys (-140) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+120)
Two of the more puzzling teams in the league as the Buccaneers won the NFC South with an 8-9 record, and a Cowboys team that looked awful in their final game of the season when there was still an outside chance of locking down the No. 1 seed. That is why the most interesting bet here is the Over/Under (45 points at -112 Over, -108 Under).
The Buccaneers are averaging just 11.2 points through the first three quarters, while the Cowboys have been adept at shutting down teams late when they have a lead – allowing just 4.5 points a game in the fourth quarter and overtime. This one could go either way, but expect a low-scoring game from the two teams that combined to score 22 points when they met in Week 1. Take the Under (-108).
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