Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The guys discuss DFS action for Week 16 and dig into the bag for a Christmas gift to each team.
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, a Christmas gift for each NFL team, and “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
The New Orleans Saints have several playoff scenarios to clinch the NFC South in Week 16, but the easiest path means beating the Vikings.
This is starting to sound like a broken record. The New Orleans Saints need just one more win to clinch the NFC South and secure a top-three playoff seed, keeping them in contention for the all-too-valuable top seed. That’s been the story for two weeks, and the Saints have dropped a loss in each of those two games.
But there’s still a path or two for New Orleans to clinch the division after a loss or tie. The NFL announced Week 16’s playoff clinch scenarios on Tuesday, which I’ve broken down below. All odds via BetMGM.
First, though, let’s consider the current NFL playoff picture. Here’s your projected seedings and matchups via ESPN:
The Browns are favored by more than a TD on the road
Heading to New York for the second week in a row, the Cleveland Browns are once again road favorites in MetLife Stadium. After pounding the Giants as 4.5-point favorites in Week 15, the Browns are even bigger favorites to beat the other denizens, the Jets, in Week 16.
Cleveland opens as an 8.5-point favorite over the Jets at BetMGM. The line carries true across other sportsbooks. The over/under figure is 46.5 for the game.
New York is 1-13 but secured that one win in Los Angeles on Sunday, stunning the NFC West-leading (at the time) Rams. The Jets have finished within one score in four of their last seven games but lost the other three by an average of 24 points.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
BetMGM opened their NFL Week 16 odds with the New Orleans Saints favored over the Minnesota Vikings by 7 points on Christmas Day.
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Pressure is building on the New Orleans Saints. They’ve stumbled into a two-game losing streak while needing just one more win to clinch the NFC South, and now they’re going into Week 16 with an always-tough opponent standing between them and that elusive 11th win: Mike Zimmer’s Minnesota Vikings.
But the oddsmakers at BetMGM don’t anticipate a close one. They’ve opened up with the Saints favored by 7 points against the visiting Vikings on Christmas Day, with an over/under of 51.5. That suggests a final score around Saints 29, Vikings 22.
That might be a tough sell given how much trouble the Vikings have given New Orleans in recent years. Zimmer’s defense has swarmed the Saints offense, a system he’s known well ever since he and Sean Payton were coworkers on Bill Parcells’ staff back in the day. The Saints are 1-3 against the Vikings since 2017 and can’t afford another slow start like they’ve shown the last two weeks.
Elsewhere around the Saints’ orbit: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-point favorites to beat the Detroit Lions, which would keep them in the thick of the NFC South race. The only way Tampa Bay steals the division from the Saints is if the Bucs win both of their remaining games and the Saints lose both of theirs.
Another game to watch is the Sunday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans, where the Titans are 3.5-point underdogs. A Packers win, paired with a Seattle Seahawks loss to the Los Angeles Rams (Seattle barely favored by 1.5), would clinch the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC for Green Bay. While the Saints are mathematically alive to earn the No. 1 seed, their odds are growing longer by the day.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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The Baltimore Ravens are on a three-game winning streak and building momentum at precisely the right time, improving in the power rankings
The Baltimore Ravens appear to be heating up at exactly the right time. While the Pittsburgh Steelers — winners of 11-straight games — have faltered and are slowing down, Baltimore is finding their groove on offense while the defense heals up. While the Ravens are no lock to make the playoffs, they are charging up the power rankings at the end of the regular season.
After a 40-14 beating of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15, Baltimore now ranks at No. 10 in Touchdown Wire’s latest power rankings. It’s a bump up from 12th last week and a third-straight week where they’ve risen up, sitting at No. 16 after Week 12.
As writer Mark Schofield points out, some of the Ravens’ climb up the power rankings is directly attributed to their schedule. After a tough middle that included two games against the Steelers, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore is getting far easier opponents to close out the 2020 regular season.
But it’s also important to point out that the offensive line is finally jelling together after what feels like a million different starting combinations. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has found his mojo and is playing pretty solid football. The rushing attack has moved on from Ingram and are finding plenty of yards with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Even the defense, struggling mightily with so many injuries, is still fearsome and should improve when guys come back to the starting lineup. With momentum building on a winning streak, people would be foolish to rule the Ravens out of anything at this point.
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Known which fantasy football waiver wire moves to make entering the championship round.
Free-agent recommendations refer to 12-team leagues, unless specifically stated otherwise. FAAB $ amounts are based on a $100 budget.
Bye weeks: none
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Reiterating last week’s inclusion of Hurts … Pick him up. 🙂 There’s not much else to say after we pointed out his potential here last week and he produced more than 41 fantasy points vs. Arizona. Dallas is ahead, and it the rookie has another fine opportunity to thrive. Carson Who?
Availability: 43%
FAAB: $11-12
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
This one will apply to a small portion of leagues, since the rookie is already owned in just over 60 percent of leagues polled. He stands a better chance of getting back WRs DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring), while there also remains optimism tight end Mike Gesicki will be available. Even without that trio, Tua produced a modest — if not impressive, given the circumstances — 20.7 fantasy points in Week 15 vs. New England. Las Vegas is dealing with its own injury plight on defense, and it’s not like that unit has played great football even with healthy. Tagovailoa is a worthwhile gamble as a starter if at least Parker returns.
Availability: 37%
FAAB: $3-4
Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
On the other side of the matchup coin is Mariota, the likely Week 16 starter after Derek Carr suffered what was deemed a one- to two-week injury last Thursday. The veteran backup takes on a Miami defense that, for all of its on-paper upgrades in the offseason, has struggled to contain competent quarterbacks. Dual-threat QBs have been even more effective. Miami technically ranks in the bottom half of the league vs. the position, and a great deal of that is due to being able to handle the quarterbacks we expected them to stifle. More proven options, like Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes, have trounced this group, and even rookie Justin Herbert found success. Mariota is a viable one-week play, but there’s always going to be that shadow of doubt until we see him consistently produce and also stay on the field. Start him at your own risk, if rolling the dice on upside is your thing.
Availability: 82%
FAAB: $3-4
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
It should go without saying that all primary backups to elite backs need to be handcuffed, but Pollard is available in 30 percent of leagues examined, and that’s after seeing almost a 10-point ownership bump before Week 15 kickoff. He led all fantasy backs with 31.2 PPR points against what had been a stout San Francisco defense of the position. Ahead, Philadelphia is better than average at slowing running backs, too, and gamers need to roll with Pollard as long as there’s an opportunity for meaningful touches. Ezekiel Elliott (calf) may not even return in 2020, and it just so happens that he is backed up by one of the top No. 2 guys in the league.
Availability: 62%
FAAB: As much as you have left
Lynn Bowden, Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Let’s make this a Dolphins-Raiders party … after all, what to cities would be much better choices? Anyhoo, the Raiders drafted Bowden — a running back/receiver combo player — this spring and shortly thereafter dealt him to Miami, where he has toiled away until injuries have forced Miami’s hand in recent weeks. He has only three carries in the last three games, and this recommendation is exclusive to PPR leagues. He’s a worthwhile flex play vs. a matchup that is tremendous for a running back to find success with receiving work. There also is upside via the passing game when Bowden is flexed into the slot, where he has resided nearly 60 percent of his offensive snaps. The Dolphins need extra hands with injuries clouding the availability of WRs Jakeem Grant (hamstring) and DeVante Parker (hamstring), as well as tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder). Las Vegas has allowed 5.5 receptions a game to running backs in 2020.
Availability: 62%
FAAB: $4-5
[lawrence-newsletter]
Chad Hansen, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Texans are in need of receiving help after the tight end position mostly has failed to step up following the loss of Will Fuller. Keke Coutee has been inconsistently productive, and Duke Johnson missed last week with a neck injury. There was room for someone to ascend in the pecking order, and Hansen has been that guy in recent weeks. He has at least 55 yards in three straight games and 12.6 or more PPR points over that span. The Week 15 score was his first, which is encouraging, and helped offset what was a two-target day after averaging six in the prior to weeks. Cincinnati has given up 15 TDs to WRs in 13 games entering Monday night, and 20 times wideouts have posted double figures in PPR scoring against the Bengals. Hansen is a desperation play in deep leagues.
Availability: 79%
FAAB: $2-3
Tyron Johnson, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Injuries have slowed wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams of late, which has opened the door for the explosive Johnson to see more action. He has 12 targets in the last two games after only nine on the year entering Week 14. There is a ton of risk here, since he’s a low-volume, high-yield kind of player. The Broncos have permitted 21 different efforts of at least 10 PPR points in 2020, and both Allen and Williams scored in the earlier meeting.
Availability: 86%
FAAB: $3-4
Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Higgins has flashed a time or two, and dating back to 2018, he displayed chemistry with Baker Mayfield. Since Odell Beckham Jr. went down, Higgins encountered a stretch of six games in which the Browns didn’t throw more than 29 passes in any outing. He didn’t score in that time, and his fantasy returns were predictably paltry. In the last three games, Mayfield has thrown no fewer than 32 times, and we’ve seen a trio of useful performances from Higgins. He has at least five targets in each of the games and no fewer than four grabs or 68 yards in any of the contests. New York has granted the sixth-most PPR points in 2020, and WRs have scored 16 times in 14 contests. The most recent two games alone have seen five different players go for 10-plus PPR points vs. the Jets.
Availability: 48%
FAAB: $3-4
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars
This one is purely a flier for a touchdown vs. a defense that has been atrocious at stopping the position. In 2020, only the Jets have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends, and no team has given up scores at a higher frequency than the once every 5.2 catches. Kmet had only two targets last week after seven in each of the previous two games. The rookie has not scored since Week 13, but adventurous fantasy owners shouldn’t be discouraged by it. Four touchdowns have been scored against the Jaguars in the last five games, and tight ends have scored seven times while racking up 36 or fewer yards, which helps make this the epitome of a gamble for a TD.
Availability: 57%
FAAB: $2-3
Ka’imi Fairbairn, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The veteran has kicked at least eight points worth in fantasy in six of his last eight appearances. The injuries in the aerial game and suspension of Will Fuller has capped this offense’s explosive ability, and Fairbairn attempted at least two field goals in four of the last five games. The Bengals (entering Monday Night Football) have allowed 2.7 field goal attempts per game, and no team has given up more tries per contest in 2020. There’s a slight chance Cincinnati struggles to contain the remnants of Houston’s passing game and Fairbairn is left to kick more single-point tries than treys, but the odds are against it.
Availability: 73%
FAAB: $0-1
Mike Badgley, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
LA is banged up at receiver, which could limit the overall efficacy of the offense. It wasn’t necessarily the case last week, but Denver is a little better of on defense than Las Vegas’ depleted unit was in Week 15. In the Week 8 game, Badgley kicked a trio of field goals and PATs, logging a season-high 12 fantasy points. The Broncos have surrendered 37 field goal attempts, which is tied for the most in the league.
Availability: 79%
FAAB: $0-1
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have given up at least 11 fantasy points in three of the last four games, and opposing defenses have racked up 12 takeaways in that time. San Fran has permitted eight total sacks, and three different turnovers have resulted in six points the other way. Toss in a special teams score vs. Dallas last week and we’re looking at a matchup even Arizona is capable of exploiting. The Week 1 meeting was between much different teams, and the highlight was only three sacks for Arizona. The Cards have generated 14 sacks in the last two games alone, and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) probably is out again for San Francisco.
Availability: 70%
FAAB: $0-1
For gamers who are in full or partial keeper leagues, the following players may be available on waivers and are worthy of stashing into 2021 to see if their situations warrant retention. With so many varying setups and rules for keeper/dynasty leagues, many of these players may be too casual for more hardcore formats.
NFL Power Rankings entering Week 16
The Houston Texans versus Cincinnati Bengals Week 16 bout at NRG Stadium is being moved from CBS to FOX.
The NFL announced schedule changes for Weeks 15 and 16, and the Texans’ matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 27 at NRG Stadium will be moved from CBS to FOX.
While Texans games have been blacked out in the Houston area on CBS affiliate KHOU for AT&T U-verse and DirecTV subscribers due to the carriage rate standoff between AT&T and TEGNA, that may have not been the motivating factor. Houston versus Indianapolis in Week 15, coming up this Sunday, will stay on CBS. However, Texans fans will be able to see the game on the Texans’ mobile app.
The Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, which was supposed to be a FOX game, goes to CBS in Week 16. The Bears are still in the playoff chase, regardless of how dismal the Jaguars are at 1-12. Similarly, Houston is 4-9 and the Bengals are 2-10-1.
In Week 10, the Texans played an all-AFC game on FOX, the NFC rights holder, when they visited the Cleveland Browns in a 10-7 loss at FirstEnergy Stadium.
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The Houston Texans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 to win the AFC South, and the snap counts revealed how this win was possible.
The Houston Texans are champions.
In an ugly game with an occurrence of seven total turnovers, the Texans escaped Tampa Bay with a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers. In doing so, they are the AFC South champions, and will host a wild-card playoff game at NRG Stadium, likely against the Buffalo Bills.
The Texans won shorthanded, with inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney and outside linebacker Jacob Martin out. Shortly into the game, wide receiver Will Fuller followed, suffering a groin injury.
With the injuries, the Texans had to adjust. That reflects on their snap counts. Let’s take a gander at them from their 10th win of the 2019 campaign.
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Next week, the Texans will host the 8-7 Tennessee Titans. They can control their rival’s playoff aspirations with a win. However, if the Kansas City Chiefs win in the game before, they may opt to stick with the fourth seed and rest some of their key players for the game.
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The calf injury to Ravens running back Mark Ingram is more serious than initially thought, though there’s hope he’ll return for the playoffs
The Baltimore Ravens picked up an important win in Week 16, beating the Cleveland Browns 31-15. The win clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed, giving Baltimore a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the playoffs. But they didn’t escape Cleveland without issue.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Ravens running back Mark Ingram suffered a calf strain in the game and will miss some time. However, the hope is Ingram will be available for the playoffs.
Ingram went down in the fourth quarter, eventually limping off the field and into the locker room with the training staff with what the team called a calf injury. Though Ingram didn’t return to the game, coach John Harbaugh said the injury wasn’t structural and didn’t consider it serious.
With the Ravens clinching the top seed early, there’s little reason for many key starters to play in Week 17 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And with an extra week of rest with a first-round bye in the playoffs, that would effectively give Ingram three weeks of rest to recuperate from the injury.
Through 15 games, Ingram has accounted for 1,018 rushing yards (breaking the 1,000-yard mark against the Browns), 10 rushing touchdowns and 26 catches for 247 yards and five touchdown receptions.
If Ingram is unable to go in the divisional round of the playoffs, Baltimore would likely turn to a combination of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill to replace him.
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