NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 16

NFL expert John Holler looks at the NFL Week 16 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

With a massive storm making its way across the country this weekend, weather could impact a lot of games.

For this week we take a volume running back to score a touchdown, a running back to go Under a number that is a little too high considering the defense he’ll be facing and a quarterback, wide receiver and tight end to go Over numbers that are too low for their skill set, ability and opponent.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 16 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Week 16 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:59 a.m. ET.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs SCORES A TD (-110)

– At Steelers, Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

Jacobs has carried the ball 21 or more times in each of his last 6 games, has 21 receptions in that same span and has scored 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games.

When you’re looking for a player you expect to score a touchdown, the first thing you look for from a running back is volume of touches. Jacobs checks all of the necessary boxes and is a good bet to get the ball at the goal line when the Raiders get close.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 220.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Bears, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The weather is expected to be miserable in Chicago Saturday, but that is nothing unusual for Buffalo players.

Allen may have to shorten up some of his passes, but he has a receiver corps built for these types of games. He has a multitude of receiving options that have made playoff runs deep into January playing in conditions worse than he will experience in Chicago.

The wind and cold impacts a lot of teams adversely, but for the Bills, it’s just another day at the office.

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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara UNDER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)

At Browns, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Saints have been one of the more difficult teams to project because their offense can get mired down for long stretches of games.

The Browns defense has been able to be exploited at times on the ground this season, but with the lack of weapons due to injury, the defense is going to be keying on stopping Kamara first.

Kamara has had 12 or fewer rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 games and each of his last 4 road games. In 6 road games this season, Kamara’s highest rushing total was 61 yards and it took 15 carries to get that. He will likely need 15 or more carries to hit this number and he hasn’t done that all season.

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 91.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Giants, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has admitted that he is aware that Jefferson is within reach of the all-time single-season receiving yardage mark and that the Vikings offense runs through him.

Jefferson has topped this number in 9 of his last 11 games and he has 39 receptions in his last 4 games.

He won’t need 10 catches to top 90 receiving yards, but he may get close to getting that many receptions as he has become this season’s version of Cooper Kupp in terms of catch volume and moving him all over the field and in motion to avoid double-teams.

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Commanders, Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Kittle has become a favorite target of QB Brock Purdy because a tight end is an inexperienced quarterback’s best friend.

Kittle has been very hit-and-miss this season and the Commanders have a strong pass defense. But with a number this low, it should only take 3 or 4 receptions to top 44.5 receiving yards and Kittle is coming off a week where he more than doubled this total, finishing with 93 receiving yards.

More NFL Week 16 picks and predictions

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NFL Player Prop Bets Picks: 3 best value bets of Week 16

Analyzing the Week 16 matchups and offering up expert picks and predictions on the top player prop bets.

With several playoff-implicating matchups in Week 16, NFL fans should be glued to their seats for nine hours of football Sunday. Below, we look at the NFL Week 16 player prop bets odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Fans were already treated to three games before a 12-game Sunday slate and a Monday matchup.

The Titans took down the 49ers Thursday with the Packers defeating the Browns and the Colts edging the Cardinals Saturday. Now, it’s time to take our attention to what’s yet to come – Sunday’s matchups.

That said, let’s dive into three of the top player props for Week 16.

Week 16 prop bets picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Patriots QB Mac Jones UNDER 215.5 passing yards (-110)

The Bills need to win this game. They’re coming for revenge as well after the Patriots defeated them in a rain-impacted matchup earlier in the season.

Combine both the needs and what their attitude should be like coming into this one, the chip on the shoulder should help their already top-tier defense. The Bills pass defense gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL at just over 175.

Jones has only topped this total twice in the past six weeks. He has only topped 30 attempts 4 times since Week 5. He just hasn’t been used quite as often as the Pats offense has shifted towards running the ball more.

Against a stout Bills pass defense, Jones may struggle in Week 16.

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Bengals RB Joe Mixon UNDER 72.5 rushing yards (-114)

The Bengals know how to beat the Ravens, having destroyed them earlier in the season.

Cincinnati beat them because of Ja’Marr Chase’s 201 receiving yards. Without Marlon Humphrey this time around, they should again target a weak Ravens secondary.

Mixon, who was banged up and left last week’s game late, already not 100% entering that matchup, may get limited touches. Also, the Ravens have a top-three run defense.

Combine the two, and Mixon may be used infrequently against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL.

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Jaguars RB James Robinson OVER 78.5 rushing yards (-114)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are under new leadership. This will be their second game without Urban Meyer.

In their first game without Meyer, Robinson ran the ball 18 times for 75 yards. The workload may be back in his favor as that tied his single-game high this season.

Robinson is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Under Meyer, the Jags were living or dying, typically dying, by Trevor Lawrence.

Taking on the Jets, the league’s third-worst run defense, Robinson should be able to help carry the Jags, a team likely trying to show they were more than just the Urban fiasco. I expect a big day out of him Sunday.

Also see: All Week 16 odds and lines

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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